Tuesday’s Trading – 11/17/09

Gold Going Parabolic?
Is it just me, or does the GLD daily chart look like it’s going parabolic? Back here, on November 3rd, I wrote:

“On Larry Kudlow’s CNBC show Tuesday night, Steve Leisman reported that high government officials said that they are content with the dollar’s “orderly” decline.”

And that was the end of the dollar rally. If you look at a chart of the DXY dollar index, you will see that it was all down hill from there, and the end of the stock-market’s correction. Since then we’ve heard from President Obama that he wants “more exports” which means smashing the dollar some more. And on Monday, Chairman Bernanke said that he was paying attention to the dollar, but doing nothing about it, and that asset bubbles were “hard to identify.”

The USA is following a “crush the dollar” policy, and the Fed sez that it’s turning a blind eye to asset bubbles. Why wouldn’t gold go parabolic?

Bernanke quote:

“It is inherently extraordinarily difficult to know whether an asset’s price is in line with its fundamental value…”

43 Responses to “Tuesday’s Trading – 11/17/09”

  1. after says:

    the futes @ 5:20 am, nas down 1.5 pts…
    Futures Prices
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 79.17 -0.36 -0.45
    Natural Gas 4.988 -0.003 -0.06
    Corn 417.5 +11.75 +2.82
    Soybeans 1010.0 +23.0 +2.28
    30yr Bond 120.5625 -0.28125 -0.23
    10yr Note 119.6875 +0.734375 +0.61
    NY Gold 1133.1 -6.1 -0.53
    NY Silver 18.17 -0.23 -1.25
    Emini S&P 1104.75 -1.5 -0.14
    Emini Nasdaq 1802.00 -1.5 -0.08
    Emini Dow 10365 -3 -0.03

  2. 'K says:

    IMF is selling gold like crazy so once the madness stops gravity takes over

  3. after says:

    looking at nas 1803 and/or 1812 for shorting today, if and when…will use hqd.to for this…

  4. Larry says:

    Sell into Full Moon, buy into New Moon has worked wonders over the last 3 months. For those who follow that.

    Lunar calendar available here on Matt’s site.

  5. George says:

    Larry,

    I’ve been watching the moon too. More babies are born during the full moon.

  6. George says:

    When you see people on the side of the road holding signs that say “Buying Gold”, you know something’s up. Where were they when gold was $300-800 per ounce?

    Rings (no pun intended) of a top.

  7. phil says:

    GEORGE….also the commercials (COT report) show that they have the largest GOLD short position in 10 years presently….they usually end up the winner in battle with speculators

  8. phil says:

    MATT….you know how all parabolics end…..CRASH

  9. Larry says:

    Usually they do. It would sure be fun to watch if it was different this time around.

  10. George says:

    SPY is using its 15min 36MA as support to bounce off of. That stochastic is positive but the MACD is negative. So the stochastic will either turn over and go down with the MACD or continue up and turn the MACD positive. The 5min right now says it will go down.

  11. George says:

    … I should have said “the 5min right now says it is GOING down” not, it WILL go down, no one knows that.

  12. phil says:

    K…..UUP bounced off lower bb now headed to middle band

  13. George says:

    Yes and TNX is up today… disconnect?

  14. George says:

    SPY 15min stochastic and MACD down to a support zone or signal lines and will try to bounce here to some degree.

  15. phil says:

    GEORGE…..TNX ran to lower bb yest….bounced off it a little now

  16. phil says:

    GEORGE..not sure whats going on in tyx and tnx so im buying tbt to protect my bond position

  17. George says:

    Phil,

    Looks like they are trying to go lower. Depends upon the resolution of the daily stochastic since it is at the 20 line.

    That was most likely a smart move.

  18. phil says:

    GEORGE…overlap of 1098 should send us to 1085

  19. George says:

    SPY daily looks like a consolidation day since it has not turned the stochastic or MACD… yet.

  20. phil says:

    GEORGE…as i posted yesterday….we may have only seen the wave 3 top….this could be 4 now..if so it MUST not overlap 1098

  21. phil says:

    BOUGHT SSO @ 37.50

  22. 'K says:

    I’ve had it with this international trade and Paul Krugman’s book. It sucks
    I guess throw econ major out of the window.

    Hope you guys are enjoying some blood after all the green

  23. phil says:

    STILL net short……now 70% short 30% long

  24. Mitch says:

    K, take a look at finance. Economics without application relegates you to academia. KSWS could use a deep dive study. Start there, try to find somewhere that will give you credit for your dives. Eventually you’ll be diving for beautiful things in Acapulco. Seriously, zest for whatever you do is key.

    What drives you?

  25. Mitch says:

    I don’t mean scholars are obscure and should be banished but it’s rare they get to apply the theory themselves and take satisfaction in others’ application in a live ammo setting.

  26. phil says:

    SPX 1121 is 50% retrace….looks like a good wave 5 target

  27. Mitch says:

    I think USD/EUR <1.60 is tolerable. LOL.

  28. 'K says:

    Mitch, MSIS is my intended major. I wanted to doublemajor but I guess I’m not big in theory and such.

  29. Mitch says:

    “The imperative of greater global currency stability means the world can no longer rely, as it has done since the end of the gold standard, on a currency issued by a single country.” – Domique Strauss Kahn, Managing Director, IMF.

    “In a globalised world there is no domestic solution” Strauss-Kahn

    My take away, The US cannot cut its budget to meet its internal growth (or lack thereof). Not when the US underwrites emerging market and Asian growth. Domestically US citizens are no more spendthrifts than any other citizen anywhere. It’s out of citizenry hands. Now, can I watch my Dancing With the Stars in peace! Thank you.

  30. Mitch says:

    In the spirit of “what would Joe Sixpack do?” He would demand Monday Night Football as opposed to “Dancing with the Stars” but this is where the strawman breaks down for me for instead I would get Monday Night Smacked Down by my wife (all for domestic tranquility of course.)

  31. George says:

    SRS made a 9/36/15 cross today and has been floating above the 15min 36MA while the 1 and 5min have been offering nice swing scalps.

  32. George says:

    I’m not a candle person but thus far the SPY daily is an inside day pattern. If it maintains that it kinda means nothing happened except consolidation.

    But for a move higher or lower? Well, the daily is in a MACD uptrend with the stochastic above 80 so until proven otherwise, I’d say the possibility for more uppage is higher.

  33. after says:

    filled on a bit of a nas short via hqd.to @ 13.72

  34. Mitch says:

    After, I think I saw a .57 bid on the GLD puts last week. You had nearly 40% gain there correct?

  35. George says:

    phil,

    Good call!

  36. George says:

    Man, SRS shot up like a rocket the last 30min.

  37. after says:

    Mitch, i was up on those puts, but not now. I have a small handful so let them sit.

    hqd.to – filled on more although legging in slowly, this fill @ 13.67
    so avg price about 13.70 >>> tight leash on this

    SDS, well, day 2 of being down more than 3 % from entry price…will sell if/when this count reaches 5, either at end of day or if it stays down in the morning of the 6th day…

  38. Julie says:

    George,
    Seats on the bus going fast. Grab one
    before they’re all gone.

  39. Julie says:

    Odds are that today’s SPX inside day
    will trigger a trend day.

  40. K says:

    Julie,
    how is that account automation doing?

  41. Stringm says:

    Julie

    Looking at the futes tonight the trend day might be up. Which way do you want it to go? I prefer up since I am long UWM. I am wishy washy and can switch in a heart beat though. Did you have to pay Paula buttloads of money to manage your account while you were in Australia. The next time you are there I need help in contacting a friend. His name is Tony Halan and he lived in Melbourne. I have lost his contact info, and can’t seem to locate him on the internet. He was in telecom and worked with me at Ericsson in Richardson.

    String