People have been talking about the “confusing” price action, but all the market did was execute a rounding turn pattern. Or as I like to call it, a “slow rounding turn” which emphasizes how sneaky it is. The market shot right back up to where it began its fall: Thursday morning’s gap, and that completed the pattern. I believe it is significant that none of the major ETF’s were able to close above their Thursday gaps. DIA came the closest, but missed by a few cents. So, the gap is still resistance, although it has been weakened.
Today was also a good example of gap trading. If you had put a limit order to short up at the QQQQ’s Wednesday close, which is the top of the Thursday down-gap, you would have gotten filled at 44.35, and had an instant winner. The Q’s did blast right through Friday morning’s down-gap, however that one was within “echo gaping” distance. It was too close to fade reliably. The key is to find a fresh gap that is one monster day away, up or down. SPY and DIA punched through the tops of their gaps before falling back, and XLF could only reach the bottom of its gap, so there is, of course, variation.
The SPX could be in a bull-flag pattern now since it bounced just above a 50% retracement of the morning blast. However, breadth deteriorated more than it has during recent rallies, and the futures have been weak since the close. So, it just doesn’t feel like a bull flag. Perhaps the market wants to range between 1085 and 1111 for a while.
Larry,
Current market share of mobile devices.
http://www.augustinefou.com/2009/11/iphone-and-android-are-taking-over.html
Futures Prices as of nearly 8 am
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 77.48 -0.08 -0.10
Natural Gas 4.797 +0.006 +0.13
Corn 403.25 -3.75 -0.93
Soybeans 1042.0 -4.0 -0.38
30yr Bond 121.125 +0.21875 +0.18
10yr Note 119.625 +0.0625 +0.05
NY Gold 1170.6 +5.9 +0.51
NY Silver 18.655 +0.045 +0.24
Emini S&P 1106.25 +2.5 +0.23
Emini Nasdaq 1792.25 +1.00 +0.06
Emini Dow 10424 +2 +0.02
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would short more nas today if when and split entry points @ 1798 and 1807
will try not to get cute about this and enter if price objective occurs when i can check them…
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11/prechter-goes-all-in-short.html
AFTER…..you do know prechter was bearish from 1987 to 2000…right???you could be holding a short at dow 15000 soon
ALSO what does he mean by 200% short?? short 2 shares of spy?
I shorted euro last night and had a risk reward of 5:1 which failed to execute. sucks.
AFTER…i have personally spoken to prechter and had several written communications with him…..he is a GENIUS…but he somehow feels he must bend the market to do his will and catch the top tick perfectly…ergo MANY bad calls over the years…i am a doctor…medicine is messy and inexact with much uncertainty.. ergo i can accept uncertainty in the market and i try to listen to what it is telling me…prechter tries to tell it what to do….UPSHOT…if he is right there will be plenty of time to profit on the downside when it turns down …WHICH it has NOT
SKF, SRS gaps filled.
Phil,
Nice call on the B wave at the close yesterday:
http://www.trivisonno.com/mondays-trading-112309#comment-51521
Matt
Those gaps are intraday from yesterday, 15min.
buy signal on SRS by SuperK
go gettum!!! added my initial position and 25% of my portfolio to be added tomorrow
MATT …… Thanks…..i still think that a break of friday lows is a BUY
XLP turned red!
SPY has bounced off its 30min 36MA support but that time frame’s MACD, while above the zero line, has turned down a few ticks. So the 5min MACD would need to turn up soon to save the day.
What’s interesting about that is that the 60min is already below its 36MA. It just closed that candle so the bottom of the candle could move up above that support line and continue up.
BOUGHT back 1/2 of DDM sold yesterday….we did not overlap wave 1…could be headed up again
reasons why there was just 1 bank failure this past friday.. i hit it spot on!! they are broke and need market to crash so they can borrow from treasury.
The FDIC fund that insures bank deposits is $8.2 billion in the hole.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. released its latest set of grim banking data moments ago. The FDIC had to set aside $21.7 billion for expected losses on future bank failures as the total number of “problem” banks rose to 552 from 416.
K…..forget about the banks…..they bailed out chrysler..they will bail out all the banks too…its a NON ISSUE
Phil, very nice trading! Do you think it faulty logic to use yesterday’s gap up as an impulse wave 1 with corrective A just ending and we are heading up on a B now?
GM’s deal to sell SAAB is off. (Source: CNBC-RT News)
Short-term support 1085 (which held last week), then 1070. Interestingly cracks beginning to show in the 1125 wall. 1125-50 might be upper limit for the market until year-end.
Thanks K.
Phil, thanks, i didn’t see linking the Prechter story as anything actionable, especially by me -g-
dow 15000 ? maybe ! i’m trying to walk away from short positions if they are 3 % + against me for 5 days in a row, so if i shorted dow right now and if i followed my guideline, i wouldn’t be there for your 15k party…
i’ve held and held before, witness VXX and DXD before, trying not to do that now/again…
best wishes…
MITCH http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SwbqTp3oWXI/AAAAAAAACuI/tcrP_6XmgyU/s1600/spx1.png
mitch..i think its is faulty logic because i only see 3 waves up so far from fri low…it COULD turn into 5 …but not yet…..ABOVE chart is old but notice we did get the b yesterday ..i am looking for C down near 1080 1070 to buy….depending on what i see…..
YERK 1121 is 50% retrace of entire spx decline
basically we are in no mans land now…not much to do here..i am still about 60% short 40 long
phil Says:
November 24th, 2009 at 11:45 am
basically we are in no mans land now…not much to do here..i am still about 60% short 40 long
FOMC puts risk (pressure up or down) at 50/50 Phil. Pressure was to the downside before. So, they must feel they are meeting objectives. If the cure works out evenly then by this time next year pressure should be to the upside and $ siphoning should be in force.
Thoughts anyone?
Greenin’ up. phil’s got the market’s number.
Phil,
Thanks for granting my wish of allowing the market to not move much.
I added about 10% short today at a bad time (10am or so) 25% coming in tomorrow morning.
i’m hoome and so shall the market be red… come on XLP just 2 cents left to go red.
win for bulls partially
Last night, China’s benchmark index declined over 3% for its worst day since August 31st.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/11/24/foodbanks-thanksgiving/
ted spread fell another 9% this is amazingly crazy! but still in par with my uptrend channel
it’s at 30EMA and right on the uptrend channel i have on my blog (go check)
K,
Fitch upgraded BAC:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091124-713355.html
Matt
that makes sense Matt,
Just going through my daily links
BAC call options flew off the shelf
http://www.philstockworld.com/2009/11/24/bank-of-america-call-options-fly-off-the-shelves/