The futures are up a few points as I write this Monday night. If they hold up until Tuesday morning, watch for a bullish island reversal pattern on the SPY daily chart.
If the market can rally, I believe it will be a technical bounce off of an oversold condition. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the economic fundamentals would be worse than what we have now.
In general,which stocks will rebound the sharpest in a market rally from a deeply oversol condition. High RS stocks that have held above recent lows or ones that have had the sharpest declines?
thanks George. i had it back in july for $61
sold $59
yea i knew you did that because we seem to think alike in some aspects
HOLY CRAP I GOT 58 envelopes
http://i38.tinypic.com/2ngzrpz.jpg
time to get my revenge on them.!!! the economy is saved guys!. i wonder if i should include anything inside each one
Yerk,
Another 10% in one or two weeks seems quite possible, even likely .
Devil’s Advocate here:
“Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt dropped by $7.9 billion, or a 3.7% annual rate, in August to $2.58 trillion. This was the first decline since January 1998.”
Where’s this money coming from to pay off this debt? This doesn’t say who it was, only that it happened. Hmmm. I think it is people not buying cars and other items and paying on credit cards. This doesn’t say they paid cards off, just down.
@Dressguard. Will leave for Hamburg tom, so that’s the opposite direction. Thanks for the Bloomberg-link. I wanted to buy puts when the stock went above 400 but volatility was insane. If I’d bought, with average vola on the stock the puts would still have been in the red way below 200…
@Duke: The harder they fall, the steeper they bounce is the rule. Do not go long healthcare during the bounce
George, these 8 bln have been writen-off by the banks – now that’s devilish
George,
You’re right; the big plunge in consumer credit wasn’t people paying down debt, but a gigantic contraction in the issue of new credit.
Tony Crescenzi says it was the biggest plunge since record keeping began in 1943.
Also, they were saying on CNBC today that you need to have a very high credit score to get an auto loan these days.
Matt
well if you saw bloomberg’s new headling.
U.S. Stocks Tumble; S&P, Dow Average Post Worst Annual Retreat Since 1937
we webt from 2004, 2001, 1987, 1937, 1929, 1 AD?
live debate tracking
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/
THE thing that held up consumer spending these last five years is the Housing ATM. In addition to the shrinkage of consumer credit it is equally important to note that MEW has shrunk to basically zero:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/impact-of-less-equity-withdrawal-on.html
In the last three quarters the ONLY positive has been exports which is shrinking rapidly; cf the Baltic Dry Index as an indicator of freight flows.
Crossing the tipping point.
2nd cruel thought for the evening. Today just blew thru the 62% Fib line and is now touching and into the resistance area between 940-1000 (FusionIQ’s area is 960-1000 but what’s a few points among friends ?).
Just to amuse myself I looked back to ’94 and did a Fib grid from the ’94 bottom ~ 453 to the Oct07 top. We’re AT the 50% line. Next down is the “new new” 62% around 870.