The futures are up a few points as I write this Monday night. If they hold up until Tuesday morning, watch for a bullish island reversal pattern on the SPY daily chart.
If the market can rally, I believe it will be a technical bounce off of an oversold condition. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the economic fundamentals would be worse than what we have now.
Benny boy talking on tele is really good for my portfolio.
why do i keep messing up. lol. i start out good then i go buy DDM at $40 when everything tells me not to. GRRRRROWL
K;
It was good for a scalp when you suggested it. Then the fed news hit.
wtf is benny boy saying. lol i don;t know where to watch
George Somehow must have not hit cancel because am sure i canceled the order. oh well. sell time. take $50 loss
Isn’t there anybody to walk up the stage to the lectern and drag Benny boy down?
Dressguard is he that unable to just jump off of it?
maybe good time to get into DDM once ROC hits 0 and MACD is positive in 1 min charts.? Don;t count on me for this prediction everything else is saying screw Super Benny.
Da Boyz going to run it down again to hit the upside hard(?).
As long as that 5, 15, and 30 minute stochastic on SDS is moving up…
now all we need is jim cramer in a tinfoil hat and history
Getting ready to hit a double top on SDS on 30 and 60 minute.
Damn.. wife dragged me out to lunch and missed the boat on ICE
It’ll be back today.
Is this meltdown take 2? Seems like the market could be in for another very bad day. Will they call this Black October?
I have to apologize. Actually Benny boy was keeping up the markets.
Time to watch SSO for move up.
george SSO and DDM don;t want to move up. UGH
if i could just see ddm 44 one more time just to kiss it GOODBYE
SDS overbought on all time frames.
K;
You’ll see it. Today most likely.
Did Bernake lower rates or just threaten to?
SDS may take another run at that double top.
Seems like SSO might be moving up like you said George.
Yep. SDS tried to make that run and got slapped down like a step child.
It still may try it again.
If it doesn’t make it, hang on to your ICE holds.
I gotta quit, as K says, spamming. Sorry. Didn’t realize I was doing so much.
Just one more:
Charlie;
Hope you got some ICE.
George,
Nice call on the SDS double top. The UK banking bailout news hit at the same time and added fuel to the fire.
Matt
Not sure how to play this, but there is a wide variance between the ETFs for the Russ 2000. IWM (long) and TWM (Short). Way off the mark between them precentage wise today. TWM up 5.5%, IWM down 3.4%
Anyone suggest a way?
gosh darnit george i’m ready to kiss DDM haha
nice call
ameritrade stream is LAGGGGINGGG ugh, just when it is getting spicey
eli;
I get that sometimes with other pairs. Doesn’t happen often, but enought to do a monkey wrench job. I just go with the one with the strength and not let the other distract me.
wwwwwaaait really? lol
Official says pension funds are down $2 trillion
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_retirement
K;
I hope you do more than kiss it… It has .50c to get to that point, still plenty of time remaining today. The DOW got a double bottom on the 60 minute to mirror the inverse double top. Every time frame below that is positive so hang in there.
K;
DDM is hitting some 5 minute 36MA resistance right now.
Matt, do you remember a few weeks ago when my application showed the wrong percentages for the DOW? Something similar just happened now: it shows S&P -90.3%.
I tell you this application knows more than we do.
wow george things are reversing again ? or am i just seeing things like dressguard? haha
Prediction: we close out the INDU at 9550
Hey George,
no luck for me today at all. Was on a conference call and missed the 2:15 entry for ICE. Maybe it will dip again enough for me to buy again?
BTW.. haven’t been watching, but solars are getting crushed again since there are fears that there will now be oversupply given that incentives are likely to disappear due to bad economic conditions.
Dry bullk shippers are also in the crapper since global demand will slow the need for goods to be shipped.
Charlie;
It certainly will. Over and over again. Just try to scalp for a $1 – $2. Don’t expect a moon shot unless the higher charts indicate that. ICE is good to get on the 1 minute and when the MACD histogram prints above the zero line, get a trade.
But it will make fantastic moves at times and you’ll know because every second it will go up .50 or a dollar. Just keeps printing green.
A few weeks ago, it gapped up $28!
I remember several years ago I traded only ICE. I made a living off of it for about 2 months. About the time it was going up to the $100-180 mark. Like catching an AAPL at the right place. Momentum trends, big counter-trends, and scalps.
If SSO 5 minute Stochastic and MACD turns up here, it will be a positive divergence on both of those indicators.
anyone know if “Cramer favorite stocks” r weaker then most
FSLR looks low enough to play
There are more new 52-week lows on the NYSE today than there were at the March bottom. This market just keeps on crashing, and crashing, and crashing some more.
don;t see it happenig today george. we didn;t crash 800 for people to rush in and buy.
but just my view. still trying to unload my DDM mistake.
SDS is doing the same thing it did yesterday. Now trying for that double top again.
For scalping an uptrend like SDS is in today, I just buy a stochastic dip on the 1 or 5 minute, as long as the 15 minute is positive or price is above the 5 minute 36MA.
I read somewhere that when you do this, you’re only wrong once – the last one that doesn’t make it up.
Nice.
Five more days like this and I will get the Call of the Year 2008 award.
this is another day when greed has taken me over. YOINKS
35 more mins and I get the “Call of the day award”
Dressguard,
Maybe your software was trying to tell you that the S&P would soon have a 9 handle.
Matt
if fed cuts rate tomorrow or tonight… markets will jump and so will gold… right ? HMM nice
From Wall Street to Main Street… Credit Frozen
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/10/from-wall-street-to-main-street-credit.html
Dressguard;
I’ll personally pin the gold star on your chest.
…and yet another SSO, SDS, ICE scalp.
Charlie, that’s why the last candle on ICE turned red. hehe But I’ll be back in.
This isn’t immoral, is it?
I missed out on the two biggies AGAIN today… SKF and QID. I gotta do better.
Bummer. SKF up $17, QID up $5.40. And I’m pecking at chicken feed. Except for my small core SDS. which I’m ready to get out of.
George – make sure he’s dressed first
who will stick my pin 13 minutes from now? will it be red?
Phew i escaped your pin sticking.
Okay, tomorrow, total concentration on high-five figures.
Poor Bernake.
low volume down day looks like the work of “Cramers army”
Charlie;
Is ICE a hoot, or what? What a rebel. You gotta love a face like that.
WOW, I stopped trading (3:50) and BBT rockets 3 bucks up.
anybody going home with a long tonight?
eli;
I’m tempted on SSO, but I won’t.
That SPX 1,000 is quite a number to possibly play off, especially being down 4 days in a row.
So much for the 1,000 mark
DDM for me. sorta got no choice
Am right now in Germany. Same media coverage and tone like we have seen about half a year ago in the US. Shit is hitting the fan in Europe.
I did okay on my DIG/DUG pair today. Nothing like SKF though.
Lesson learned.
$100 realized gain in GE $200+ Unrealized losses in DDM let’s go lower interest rates. i want a bounce and to be out of the market FOREVER!
Charlie,
I’m not a commercial paper (CP) expert, so I don’t know what effects the Fed’s new program will have. However, if it ensures that my local grocery store will be able to get financing to keep buying food from farmers, then I will consider it a great success.
CP looks like a seller’s market now since money is so scarce. So even if the grocery store can continue to get loans, it is likely that they will be paying a higher interest rate. Companies that need CP and get cut off will suffer and die. Those that still have access to CP will have their profit margins squeezed.
This is not a recipe for a new bull market, as you may have guessed.
Matt
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/new-stock-marke.html
cheered me up a bit lol
K,
I listen to CNBC while I watch my charts. Today, they had a reporter in Paris, I think, and they said that Europe’s finance ministers were fiddling while Europe burned. Our market didn’t like that, and it often reacts strongly to events in Europe. The EU is a larger economy than the USA, and John Claude Trichet’s interest rate decisions at the ECB often create large waves here. ECB announcements are listed on the Bloomberg calendar, and during times like these, it is important to be aware of what’s going on in Europe. Fortunately, we have Dressguard in Germany to alert us to important events.
Matt
K;
Don’t give up!
George,
Your breakaway gap on SDS that you pointed out yesterday morning is still running. Nice call.
Matt
I forgot dressguard was in Germany! lol
I don;t give up george. instead of sell in panic i will try and hold on until fed pumps the markets or hopefully we have some good earnings today.
Lots of folks think that businesses and farmers have a big stash of money in a safe ready to take out to expand and buy things when needed.
Fact is, they survive month-to-month, or whatever, just like us private individuals. Certainly, oil companies, Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and others have tons of cash reserves. Even they need to draw from those funds eventually during business cycles. If they need more than their reserves, they have to borrow.
So, the notion that a chain grocery store has enough reserves to expand isn’t true. Think about a downturn in the economy where we buy less food. That affects them greatly because they only get a 3-5% mark-up on food items. So, their cash reserves can and will be depleted quickly, especially if they are in the midst of expansion. And we want expansion to give folks jobs.
A Korean couple in a small town where I live couldn’t get a $25,000 loan for their dry cleaning business during the beginning of the ’90s due to the economy. Finally, they found some backing amoungst the town folks. Today, they not only paid all of them back, but they now have a thriving business and employee several members of the community.
The mom-and-pop entreprenures in our country live their lives and run their business like we do as individual families – finance those big-ticket items. Farmers and cattle ranchers are continually borrowing to finance their next crops. Without loans (witness the 80′s where thousands of farms went bankrupt) they will lose their farms.
I don’t want farmers to go out of business.
Matt;
Thanks. I didn’t think the reversal today would last because the 15 minute was so powerful on SDS but one never knows.
Alcoa kicked off earnings season. Profit falls 52%.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081007/earns_alcoa.html?.v=3
i was gonna be stupid and buy it. Argh,
K,
If you still own DDM you did.
I think this one has been the first major disaster this earnings season – with special greetings from Germany
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGHs7Wy.prhE
SAP slid as much as 4.14 euros to 24.70 euros, adding to a 16 percent drop yesterday, the most in more than nine years. The company reported a “very sudden and unexpected drop in business activity” amid the global financial crisis.
Have a look at the yearly chart – Ticker SAP…
Re: SAP’s “very sudden and unexpected drop in business activity”
I expect that we will be hearing many more phrases like that during earnings season. As George outlined above, when the commercial paper market freezes, quite a lot of business can be expected to grind to halt.
newbie yes i am screwed i know.
I will try not to let it get to me.
K,
Do you have a stop loss plan?
i put it during the day but i try not to put it at Open
so No. i got a sell limit if it gaps up
Matt,
I agree, parrots will not be an endangered species this quarter. I think that after the first few disappointments the market will have this priced in and be immune to further “me toos” This and the appearence of progress on the CP front may setup a lower limit for the market sometime in the next week or two. What do you think?
newbie i hardly thought we would have 2 awful days as MacD and stoch was turning but i got the deadly seen called GREED…
Another credit flag: IB just raised the margin limits from 25% to 30%.
Dressguard,
Another few days like this and your call will make you look like a bull.
SAP issued a ban of recruitment. I have never heard something similar of SAP. Speaks for itself.
@Yerk: Where are you in Germany?
@Dressguard, Frankfurt. Did you see Volkswagen (VOW.F) today? Stock went intraday from 300 to 450 and back to 280. Casino royale.
@Newbie: I like the idea! But first, down at least 10%…
… and yet, I’m still receiving credit card invitations from Capital One and others.
hey george.. i just mail back the empty envelopes
help the post office.
@Yerk: I am in Stuttgart right now. From next week on in Bern/Switzerland till the rest of the month and then in Munich for a week. After that maybe home again to Dubai. I owned VW about 8 years ago. Look at the chart. I was watching it today and it’s just jaw dropping. Second short squeeze in a week’s time. Bloomberg has it covered today:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aM.TGIiIhuxU&refer=home
K;
DDM peaked around $90. It is down to ~$42. Cut in half. It had a gap down on the 6th that will be filled at some time. I don’t think it is unreasonable to at least expect a bounce, possibly up to the $49 area in the near future.
If it was me? I’d hold on and play the underlying to balance it out. If I couldn’t do that, I’d keep it.
If you can’t do that, then wait for another bounce up intraday and sell to get out.
K;
How’d you know I did that?