Comments on: Tuesday’s Trading

By: Dblwyo

Dblwyo — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:07:47 +0000

2nd cruel thought for the evening. Today just blew thru the 62% Fib line and is now touching and into the resistance area between 940-1000 (FusionIQ’s area is 960-1000 but what’s a few points among friends ?).

Just to amuse myself I looked back to ‘94 and did a Fib grid from the ‘94 bottom ~ 453 to the Oct07 top. We’re AT the 50% line. Next down is the “new new” 62% around 870.

By: Dblwyo

Dblwyo — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 01:53:51 +0000

THE thing that held up consumer spending these last five years is the Housing ATM. In addition to the shrinkage of consumer credit it is equally important to note that MEW has shrunk to basically zero:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/impact-of-less-equity-withdrawal-on.html

In the last three quarters the ONLY positive has been exports which is shrinking rapidly; cf the Baltic Dry Index as an indicator of freight flows.

Crossing the tipping point.

By: K

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 01:42:19 +0000

live debate tracking
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/

By: K

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:36:30 +0000

well if you saw bloomberg’s new headling.
U.S. Stocks Tumble; S&P, Dow Average Post Worst Annual Retreat Since 1937

we webt from 2004, 2001, 1987, 1937, 1929, 1 AD?

By: admin

admin — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:20:22 +0000

George,

You’re right; the big plunge in consumer credit wasn’t people paying down debt, but a gigantic contraction in the issue of new credit.

Tony Crescenzi says it was the biggest plunge since record keeping began in 1943.

Also, they were saying on CNBC today that you need to have a very high credit score to get an auto loan these days.

Matt

By: Yerk

Yerk — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:42:43 +0000

George, these 8 bln have been writen-off by the banks – now that’s devilish

By: Yerk

Yerk — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:18:12 +0000

@Dressguard. Will leave for Hamburg tom, so that’s the opposite direction. Thanks for the Bloomberg-link. I wanted to buy puts when the stock went above 400 but volatility was insane. If I’d bought, with average vola on the stock the puts would still have been in the red way below 200…

@Duke: The harder they fall, the steeper they bounce is the rule. Do not go long healthcare during the bounce

By: George

George — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:13:15 +0000

Devil’s Advocate here:

“Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt dropped by $7.9 billion, or a 3.7% annual rate, in August to $2.58 trillion. This was the first decline since January 1998.”

Where’s this money coming from to pay off this debt? This doesn’t say who it was, only that it happened. Hmmm. I think it is people not buying cars and other items and paying on credit cards. This doesn’t say they paid cards off, just down.

By: newbie

newbie — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:04:37 +0000

Yerk,
Another 10% in one or two weeks seems quite possible, even likely .

By: K

Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:01:06 +0000

HOLY CRAP I GOT 58 envelopes
http://i38.tinypic.com/2ngzrpz.jpg

time to get my revenge on them.!!! the economy is saved guys!. i wonder if i should include anything inside each one