SPX Moving Average Convergence
The 20, 50, and 100-period moving averages on the SPX’s 60-minute chart are all converging at about 1099. That will be strong resistance. If the SPX is indeed able to punch through it, it will need to at least run up and tag 1112. If it turns down before doing so, that will be a hint that it is might eventually fall out of its rectangular trading range.
The Dubai Gap
The XLF is the only major ETF that has closed its Dubai Gap (from Friday morning) so far.
moon calendar
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/SxRy1vb5QKI/AAAAAAAAFmI/rPZvlLJ4Vq0/s1600-h/FullMoonBottom2.png
futes as of 5:30, look at nas, up nearly 16, gold up 13.7
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 78.16 +0.88 +1.14
Natural Gas 4.84 -0.008 -0.17
Corn 417.5 +4.00 +0.96
Soybeans 1060.5 +7.5 +0.71
30yr Bond 122.21875 -0.5 -0.41
10yr Note 119.9375 +0.0625 +0.05
NY Gold 1196.0 +13.7 +1.16
NY Silver 18.76 +0.235 +1.27
Emini S&P 1103.75 +9.00 +0.82
Emini Nasdaq 1783.25 +15.75 +0.89
Emini Dow 10412 +78 +0.76
The dollar must have fallen out of bed again last night. Looks like my stops will get hit and I’ll have to sit in cash for a while. That’s okay. Have a good trading day all.
CORRECTION from yesterday.
At EOD yesterday, I said the lower SPY daily gap of November 6 had been filled. I was wrong. Apparently, my chart had a spike that filled that gap. Checking other charts (other than SD!), I found that to not be the case. Apologies.
So, we have even more excitement this week with a lower and upper gap!
Heading to new highs!
I don’t know if it’s me or not, but StockCharts has problems.
phil’s blow-off top?
SOLD ddm for 59c gain
BOUGHT tlt @95.72
phil,
Nice. I actually had some SSO shares I got yesterday and left them in overnight.
Feeding frenzy on SPY right now. Last gasp?
GEORGE…..thanks…i still have SSO also but not many longs left now…im about 70% short 30% long
GEORGE …if you want to see an interesting trendline im following…DAILY TLT….draw from early june and early august lows….see what i mean??its coming back to test it from above with 18dsma rising…worth a shot
Phil, and it STILL doesn’t feel like a top.
Matt, those quotes were/are timely. Been licking my wounds (amputations) and sitting down to “my very own banquet of consequences” -Russ Winter
Mitch
“The only thing more abundant than hydrogen is stupidity”…Albert Einstein
AND natural gas!
I’ll never touch that sh** again – nothing but the finest light sweet crude for me . . .
phil,
I see what you mean about TLT daily. It has started a new uptrend channel.
MITCH..GEORGE…fyi http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=14160
SPY’s gap up today filled its gap down from Friday. That makes two gaps to be filled to the downside – today’s and November 6th.
AND, we’re still in Matt’s rectangle, i.e., price has gone nowhere in 16 days. Trading intraday, it has gone a LONG way.
Scalps-Я-Us
ALSO….note that our expected peak in rates in june 2009 also implied a low in rates in DEC..headed for our next peak in june 2010….that rising wedge on neelys chart looks like 3% $tnx for the low
Tops/Bottoms here, will see what happens.
feeling tempted to add shorts but alas, trying to wait for ndx 1815 or higher…
did i mention i feel tempted ?
SRS setting up. Could be the start of a counter…
after,
It’s hard not to be tempted at these levels. Especially with the unfilled gaps.
George, all,
VXX down less in % terms than VIX…
is that anything ? -g-
nas100, 1795 or so…wow, 20 pts away from my first target to add…
can we do this today ? -g-
There will be cuts on CNBC (perfect cover now with the Comcast deal). Will it be possible to get better journalism with this much conglomeration? YES! That’s sad.
after,
I’m not familiar with the VIX or VXX. I don’t follow either of them. I think K or Stringm does and perhaps Matt.
Well, I think we know what Joe Sixpack is doing..
Lack of inst selling so no follow up on the visit to 1065-70. Back in the range 1085-1125.
Near the top of Matt’s rectangle. Previously it turned back down before reaching the tippy-top. I’ll be looking for that. If it goes over, katie bar the door.
However, getting to the top would be double tops so anything can happen.
Something’s building. Hoping SRS pops a top!
Take them profits, Bulls. Let some more bears in for another Thanksgiving.
May your inverse be your Mt. St. Helens!
SPY touched its 5min 36MA with a bounce. The 1min has 36MA overhead resistance. If it can’t keep the 5min then the 15min 36MA is quite a way down below. But it could consolidate for a bit to let it catch up.
My little 5min indicator says there is a high probability of it continuting down. And it’s NEVER wrong.
SHorts still not comfortable with hanging on for too long. They’ll get over it when red streaks abound.
One good thing about minor trend corrections on the lower time frames, it gives an opportunity to get in or add more if the initial was missed.
George: Are you getting bearish on a full moon??
this might be a link that constantly changes but i see today was a boring day besides the open. see what i mean about trading after 10:30 George?
http://finviz.com/image.ashx?sp500&rev=633952790117236250
on an off topic. i just bought myself Asics sneakers so i can run without messing myself up. They should be good for walking too right? I’ve had enough of my old sneakers that have lost all their support.
K, Puma out Asics in! I have a pair of Nike Bowerman Series that are just great. It really is suprising how soon running shoes lose there support – even good ones.
Mitch,
Pumas are awesome but they’re not cushiony enough for me, I have a few pairs of shoes. Reebok, Adidas, Vans, noname lol
but i’m starting to get in the mood of running again after stopping it for the past 3 years. it will be a slow process but I need good support and shoes will do it.
went to this local place that caters to marathon runners from everywhere and they fit the right ones for my sole type. Instead of trying 100 different ones I just had to try 3 and I also liked the nikes but their mesh only came in a white color.
(I hope matt’s ok with this discussion 4 mins before close)
Crash crash ….. skyrocket!!!
Marc Faber warns that further sovereign defaults are ahead. Dubai was just a teaser.
http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-dubai-was-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-2009-12
interesting!
Jim,
Yes, bearish on the 5min started at the SPY peak at 14:15.
After 17 years of inaction, North Korea has suddenly removed two zeroes from its currency value due to rampant inflation.
You know something is wrong when North Korean regulaton is forced to face economic reality.
http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-devalues-currency-by-100-to-1-2009-12
http://www.businessinsider.com/big-funds-sold-out-of-equities-in-november-2009-12
old news? Big money selling stocks in november
K,
I keep reading that big money is selling but I’m not seeing it in the market. There’s something there I don’t understand.
they unload in days like these George
I got these stats from Trending123 website.
Rectangle Bottom Upside breakout: Failure rate 0%; Throwback 61% Rise/Delcline Average 46%; Rise Decline Likely 20%
Rectangle Top Downside Breakout Failure Rate 0%; Pullback 55% -20% -20%
Well, I hit the Submit button too early, here’s the last sentence with percentage descriptions:
Rectangle Top Downside Breakout Failure Rate 0%; Pullback 55%; Rise/Decline Average -20%; Rise Decline Likely -20%.
Eh, I can’t get it all on here so here’s the link:
http://www.trending123.com/scantimeframes/index.html
George,
Interesting, but it is talking specifically about 500 stocks that were used as the data set, not indices. I like that a pullback or throwback is about a 50% probability. That will give the doubters a chance to get in (or front runners to double up) when it retests the breakout/breakdown.
Good point 2thfixr: Front-running hurts sometimes. I would expect a false break before the “true” direction is established.
the TED spread MA’s didn’t really cross up yet which have disappointed me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71064394532
here’s the rectangle more colorful
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/SxV-TEB8QJI/AAAAAAAAFzo/UiovqU2B6gM/s1600/spx.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9MYixPWxtF0/SxViXlHXQmI/AAAAAAAABGc/3YI45C1xH-k/s1600/S%26P500-chart-stock-market.jpg
Paul Krugman,
whether you agree or disagree with his views here goes a decent read or skim (as I do)
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/double-dip-warning/
lol one more rectangle but we saw it first here on this blog!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oqKj7JIlUso/SxUmIVO1IPI/AAAAAAAAATw/5XlXORuJ2LA/s1600/2009-12-01_$SPX.png