Tuesday’s Trading – 12/1/09

SPX Moving Average Convergence
The 20, 50, and 100-period moving averages on the SPX’s 60-minute chart are all converging at about 1099. That will be strong resistance. If the SPX is indeed able to punch through it, it will need to at least run up and tag 1112. If it turns down before doing so, that will be a hint that it is might eventually fall out of its rectangular trading range.

The Dubai Gap
The XLF is the only major ETF that has closed its Dubai Gap (from Friday morning) so far.

56 Responses to “Tuesday’s Trading – 12/1/09”

  1. after says:

    futes as of 5:30, look at nas, up nearly 16, gold up 13.7
    Futures Prices
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 78.16 +0.88 +1.14
    Natural Gas 4.84 -0.008 -0.17
    Corn 417.5 +4.00 +0.96
    Soybeans 1060.5 +7.5 +0.71
    30yr Bond 122.21875 -0.5 -0.41
    10yr Note 119.9375 +0.0625 +0.05
    NY Gold 1196.0 +13.7 +1.16
    NY Silver 18.76 +0.235 +1.27
    Emini S&P 1103.75 +9.00 +0.82
    Emini Nasdaq 1783.25 +15.75 +0.89
    Emini Dow 10412 +78 +0.76

  2. 2thfixr says:

    The dollar must have fallen out of bed again last night. Looks like my stops will get hit and I’ll have to sit in cash for a while. That’s okay. Have a good trading day all.

  3. George says:

    CORRECTION from yesterday.

    At EOD yesterday, I said the lower SPY daily gap of November 6 had been filled. I was wrong. Apparently, my chart had a spike that filled that gap. Checking other charts (other than SD!), I found that to not be the case. Apologies.

    So, we have even more excitement this week with a lower and upper gap!

  4. Jim says:

    Heading to new highs!

  5. George says:

    I don’t know if it’s me or not, but StockCharts has problems.

  6. George says:

    phil’s blow-off top?

  7. phil says:

    SOLD ddm for 59c gain

  8. phil says:

    BOUGHT tlt @95.72

  9. George says:

    phil,

    Nice. I actually had some SSO shares I got yesterday and left them in overnight.

    Feeding frenzy on SPY right now. Last gasp?

  10. phil says:

    GEORGE…..thanks…i still have SSO also but not many longs left now…im about 70% short 30% long

  11. phil says:

    GEORGE …if you want to see an interesting trendline im following…DAILY TLT….draw from early june and early august lows….see what i mean??its coming back to test it from above with 18dsma rising…worth a shot

  12. Mitch says:

    Phil, and it STILL doesn’t feel like a top.

    Matt, those quotes were/are timely. Been licking my wounds (amputations) and sitting down to “my very own banquet of consequences” -Russ Winter

    Mitch

  13. phil says:

    “The only thing more abundant than hydrogen is stupidity”…Albert Einstein

  14. Mitch says:

    AND natural gas!

  15. Mitch says:

    I’ll never touch that sh** again – nothing but the finest light sweet crude for me . . .

  16. George says:

    phil,

    I see what you mean about TLT daily. It has started a new uptrend channel.

  17. George says:

    SPY’s gap up today filled its gap down from Friday. That makes two gaps to be filled to the downside – today’s and November 6th.

    AND, we’re still in Matt’s rectangle, i.e., price has gone nowhere in 16 days. Trading intraday, it has gone a LONG way.

    Scalps-Я-Us

  18. phil says:

    ALSO….note that our expected peak in rates in june 2009 also implied a low in rates in DEC..headed for our next peak in june 2010….that rising wedge on neelys chart looks like 3% $tnx for the low

  19. George says:

    Tops/Bottoms here, will see what happens.

  20. after says:

    feeling tempted to add shorts but alas, trying to wait for ndx 1815 or higher…
    did i mention i feel tempted ?

  21. George says:

    SRS setting up. Could be the start of a counter…

  22. George says:

    after,

    It’s hard not to be tempted at these levels. Especially with the unfilled gaps.

  23. after says:

    George, all,

    VXX down less in % terms than VIX…

    is that anything ? -g-

  24. after says:

    nas100, 1795 or so…wow, 20 pts away from my first target to add…

    can we do this today ? -g-

  25. Mitch says:

    There will be cuts on CNBC (perfect cover now with the Comcast deal). Will it be possible to get better journalism with this much conglomeration? YES! That’s sad.

  26. George says:

    after,

    I’m not familiar with the VIX or VXX. I don’t follow either of them. I think K or Stringm does and perhaps Matt.

  27. George says:

    Well, I think we know what Joe Sixpack is doing.. :)

  28. Yerk says:

    Lack of inst selling so no follow up on the visit to 1065-70. Back in the range 1085-1125.

  29. George says:

    Near the top of Matt’s rectangle. Previously it turned back down before reaching the tippy-top. I’ll be looking for that. If it goes over, katie bar the door.

    However, getting to the top would be double tops so anything can happen.

  30. George says:

    Something’s building. Hoping SRS pops a top!

  31. George says:

    Take them profits, Bulls. Let some more bears in for another Thanksgiving. :)

  32. George says:

    May your inverse be your Mt. St. Helens!

  33. George says:

    SPY touched its 5min 36MA with a bounce. The 1min has 36MA overhead resistance. If it can’t keep the 5min then the 15min 36MA is quite a way down below. But it could consolidate for a bit to let it catch up.

    My little 5min indicator says there is a high probability of it continuting down. And it’s NEVER wrong. :)

  34. George says:

    SHorts still not comfortable with hanging on for too long. They’ll get over it when red streaks abound.

    One good thing about minor trend corrections on the lower time frames, it gives an opportunity to get in or add more if the initial was missed.

  35. Jim says:

    George: Are you getting bearish on a full moon??

  36. K says:

    this might be a link that constantly changes but i see today was a boring day besides the open. see what i mean about trading after 10:30 George?

    http://finviz.com/image.ashx?sp500&rev=633952790117236250

    on an off topic. i just bought myself Asics sneakers so i can run without messing myself up. They should be good for walking too right? I’ve had enough of my old sneakers that have lost all their support.

  37. Mitch says:

    K, Puma out Asics in! I have a pair of Nike Bowerman Series that are just great. It really is suprising how soon running shoes lose there support – even good ones.

  38. K says:

    Mitch,
    Pumas are awesome but they’re not cushiony enough for me, I have a few pairs of shoes. Reebok, Adidas, Vans, noname lol

    but i’m starting to get in the mood of running again after stopping it for the past 3 years. it will be a slow process but I need good support and shoes will do it. :) went to this local place that caters to marathon runners from everywhere and they fit the right ones for my sole type. Instead of trying 100 different ones I just had to try 3 and I also liked the nikes but their mesh only came in a white color.

    (I hope matt’s ok with this discussion 4 mins before close)
    Crash crash ….. skyrocket!!!

  39. K says:

    Marc Faber warns that further sovereign defaults are ahead. Dubai was just a teaser.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-dubai-was-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-2009-12

    interesting!

  40. George says:

    Jim,

    Yes, bearish on the 5min started at the SPY peak at 14:15.

  41. K says:

    After 17 years of inaction, North Korea has suddenly removed two zeroes from its currency value due to rampant inflation.

    You know something is wrong when North Korean regulaton is forced to face economic reality.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-devalues-currency-by-100-to-1-2009-12

  42. George says:

    K,

    I keep reading that big money is selling but I’m not seeing it in the market. There’s something there I don’t understand.

  43. K says:

    they unload in days like these George :P

  44. George says:

    I got these stats from Trending123 website.

    Rectangle Bottom Upside breakout: Failure rate 0%; Throwback 61% Rise/Delcline Average 46%; Rise Decline Likely 20%

    Rectangle Top Downside Breakout Failure Rate 0%; Pullback 55% -20% -20%

  45. George says:

    Well, I hit the Submit button too early, here’s the last sentence with percentage descriptions:

    Rectangle Top Downside Breakout Failure Rate 0%; Pullback 55%; Rise/Decline Average -20%; Rise Decline Likely -20%.

  46. George says:

    Eh, I can’t get it all on here so here’s the link:

    http://www.trending123.com/scantimeframes/index.html

  47. 2thfixr says:

    George,
    Interesting, but it is talking specifically about 500 stocks that were used as the data set, not indices. I like that a pullback or throwback is about a 50% probability. That will give the doubters a chance to get in (or front runners to double up) when it retests the breakout/breakdown.

  48. George says:

    Good point 2thfixr: Front-running hurts sometimes. I would expect a false break before the “true” direction is established.

  49. K says:

    the TED spread MA’s didn’t really cross up yet which have disappointed me.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71064394532

  50. K says:

    Paul Krugman,
    whether you agree or disagree with his views here goes a decent read or skim (as I do)

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/double-dip-warning/