The market certainly does look strong here, so make a note of the upper levels of the Box of Beer.
The bears can take solace in two facts: 1) The market’s gains after the big XOM/XTO deal were rather unimpressive. 2) The QQQQ failed to close above its November 18th gap once again. The close on the 17th was 44.60, so that is the top of the gap. If the Q’s can close above 44.60, then that will be a strong indication that the market is intending to decisively break out of its range.
Of course, if the FOMC makes tightening noises in their announcement at 2:15pm on Wednesday, then all bullish bets will be off.
I’m up and waiting.
Good morning George! I’m up making breakfast and getting ready to head to work. What do you think of the bearish wedge (almost the mirror image of last week’s bullish wedge) from yesterday? Futures are pointing lower! Go SDS!
Off to work–bring home the bacon George! Hug an inverse today!
2thfixr,
Drill ‘em Dude. I missed your post while I was trying to find a chart I posted months back. It was a chart of business cycles in pi-form.
Anyway, I lost the link when I lost my hard drive and replaced it. It’s interesting stuff and I have a follow-up from the guy who came up with it. His predictions have been right-on.
More about that later…
Futures Prices , at 8 am, small bit of red for the nas…
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 71.89 +0.03 +0.04
Natural Gas 5.396 +0.064 +1.20
Corn 408.5 +4.00 +0.98
Soybeans 1061.75 +18.75 +1.77
30yr Bond 117.59375 -0.4375 -0.37
10yr Note 117.5625 -0.109375 -0.09
NY Gold 1113.6 -10.2 -0.90
NY Silver 17.205 -0.135 -0.77
Emini S&P 1106.25 -2.25 -0.20
Emini Nasdaq 1803.00 -4.75 -0.26
Emini Dow 10465 -33 -0.31
Here’s something I ponder.
If “sell in May and go away” (May to Oct 31) didn’t work this year (what truism has?), then will it be reversed? I.E., sell in “Fall Y’Al” (Nov 1 to Apr 30)?
…just askin’…
I found it on the ‘net. Martin Armstrong’s pi chart:
http://tinyurl.com/36vbwl
Here’s his latest work – from prison. I know, sayyyyyy what? Hey, give the guy a read. He’s in there for contempt of court and other squanders.
This is long reading. But, read the first article. He makes a point about the last low (2009) being a new low and when that happens, it propels the market up to a new high.
See what you think:
http://tinyurl.com/y8mofag
Ha, ye ol’ BBs on the daily SPY are turning up (the top one). Too early perhaps to tell anything from that. Maybe one of our BB experts can share some insights.
I did want to point out that SKF has made four 15min Humpty-Dumbties in a row! Nice ones, too. I believe that is a record of some type. It may be working on its 5th. It will need a group hug after this year.
Oh, did I mention that SRS made a new all-time low AGAIN? I do believe it’s going to the 2-handle. After all, real estate is boomin’!
Here’s a chart of URE. Its twin is SRS. This looks bullish to me which is bearish for SRS if it plays out:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2zrg5tw.jpg
i cant believe euro fell below 1.46
UUP is up (so i wont yell)
once futures break and close below 1102 on the hourly I will rejoyce. if a close for 2 straight hours above the 1107 i won’t rejoyce much but will think of reversing position for time being. right now it bounced off 1103.47
With that nice of an intraday gap I would think the underlaying would rise up to fill it… maybe later until all of the initial stuff gets out of the way.
while waiting for 10:30-11 to make my next moves (since i dont scalp currently like George) I’ll watch some comedy central particulary colbert and stewart from last night.
looks to me like 8am candle in futures did hit 1102.25 then bounced so now i would want a break below it if possible.
I haven’t faded this gap yet. The inverse has some catching up to do plus the underlying needs to work off the gains.
George,
If things work out DZZ might have at least 30-50 cents to the upside.
just sayin so you can keep an eye out for any explosive moves and call up the brinks truck
0938 EST 15Dec2009-Markets open lower on inflation concerns
ahh looks like time to consider reversing positions. my fear has come true. lol 1107 as of now
K,
Thanks. DZZ is up and running. I like it.
George, I have a stop loss on DZZ below 13.
Watch for some news out of Kiev (once the crown of Russia).
Yes K, for the thrid time since August I am going against the trend.
20 Short.
Waiting for the new moon to pass and for Bombay to move before it gets exciting.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=6m
larry i’m 25-30 short so you’re not the only one. i feel weird adding longs and have been since march. if i buy some OEF or some other longs now i’ll crash the markets.
K,
See if you got an email from me and you can access the attachment.
Nice counter on SPY and other underlying so far. Near its intraday gap. Should be entertaining.
no mail yet George.
I hope its a virtual check
I think SPY gap has been filled. 15min stochastic is strong but nearing 80.
K,
It has a large attachment. And there will be more if this one works.
SPY has nearly back-tested that lower trendline on the 5min chart I posted.
if its bigger than 10MB i dont think your hotmail allows it to be sent.
i think we’re seeing higher highs coming (provided the futures break and close above 1110 for 1-2 hrs)
Greek Flu spreading to Austria.
of course i mean debt flu lol
http://www.businessinsider.com/its-spreading-banking-and-debt-fears-hit-austria-as-hypo-group-alpe-adria-is-nationalized-2009-12
K it’s 3.7meg
GEORGE….sold all TBT bought yesterday for 45c gain
please try again George.
from the sound of it its music
enjoy this song while the market goes sideways
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_J7gXDr3GA
Phil,
You on a roll! (not rolaids). WTG
GEORGE..martin armstrongs material is right on..i have followed him for 10 -15 yrs….HAVE YOU read about PHASE TRANSITION…like the collapse of the ROMAN CURRENCY?
K,
It isn’t music, which I luv. I have tons of that.
is it a .zip file or an .exe file? if so you would need to add a .zi_ or .ex_ (if you know how to do that. LOL there’s always workarounds.
phil,
I haven’t read all of Martin’s stuff. Still in the process. I didn’t realize he had so many articles.
K,
Good point. I’ll do that and resend.
looks like bulls are favored. i’m still an underdog
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/Syce3SaBVmI/AAAAAAAAF4Y/qjLqRBbxXag/s1600-h/spx.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/Syce3lpL27I/AAAAAAAAF4g/AU8BGXZ-sKc/s1600-h/rut.png
K,
I sent it again. I think you’re right: Hotmail won’t allow .exe to be sent.
India watch
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aiZBB0gUXOPc
Nitty Gritty! HAHAH
But wait, there’s MORE!
you mean there’s more than UUp reaching 23 be end of december and my 23 june call being 6 months ahead of schedule?
YES!
Eh, K, some are just too big – even zipped. Bummer.
Hehe Don’t worry about it George I just hope you enjoy the goodies i sent your way. the 2nd lik i sent you is taking me forever so scratch that one off your list.
Now I see Futures bounced off EMA 10,20 & 30 which are all crunched up together at 1106. is this our new support on the hourly?
Mitch – does anyone really care about Ukraine? My mother-in-law lives there (good place for her…hehe…) and my wife and I go back to visit every other year or so…really just a few rich people living amongst alot of poverty. Kiev property was bid up to astronomical levels and is now falling hard, recent buyers are in total panic. But in the end, Ukraine is largely an agricultural society with some steel mills and clothes factories, almost irrelevant to the rest of the world…except for one small detail…it is a buffer country between Russian and the West…
So much for a breakout this AM. We’re approaching the 61.8fib. Another attack is building.
GEORGE…forget spx… look at $RUT go …..buy SCHA
RUT up .3%….SPX down .3%
GEORGE>>>a dip near $RUT 607 is a buy
Thanks Phil, will do.
Hi Randall,
Ukraine is dynamic. We get the luxury of watching the divergence of, say, Ukraine and Latvia. Economics, trade, etc., allows us to tie the present to the past as if each fluctuation represents the new and next page of an on going novel. “Who killed them Kennedys . . . . ” or “Who killed the Czar and his family. . . . “
SRS/URE are volatile today. Like two children fighting. I’m favoring SRS because the 15min on URE is negative. However, once those MACD trendlines touch the zero line from above, it could bounce.
K,
I never worry about the torrents taking too long. I just crank them up at night and go to bed.
Kind of offtopic while the market decides what to do..
enjoy some humor from some emails between current president, and one of my forex friends in response to an email i sent out last week
————————————————-
I sent my email Wednesday the 9th asking to cut losers and citi was at 3.90′s then.
“My first suggestion is to cut the losing trades as a first step. (C, XLE &XLF)
We can keep some shares of XLF and some of XLE just so we can have some exposure.”
—
Response from current prez.
“I’m watching EURO:USD. If the 1.51 area gets broken with strength the weak dollar theme has another significant leg up and the market will reflect that. ”
—
Response from one other person whom i thought was good at this.
“With C, I don’t believe we should sell it off. They are eager to repay their $20 billion in tarp funds, and I think it could go to 5.50. Their book value is at 4.47. For C to go to 0 that’s not something the US wants. Citi has also done well in downsizing in comparison to other competitors. This is not even so much a bet on Citigroup as it is a bet on the United States.”
–
Let’s recap.
EUR/USD is at 1.45 today and it was at 1.475 on the 9th.
C was at 3.90′s and is now at 3.56
Ooopsie! Fun stuff. I can’t wait to get started at my new position!
I got .10c on BBT today. It has been in a down draft since the gap up this morning. Waiting to see if it sets up again. Depends upon SKF’s moves which have been strong.
SPY’s 15min MACD lines nearing zero. It has bounced well there inthe past.
C can go to the damned moon and I wouldn’t have a trace of it in any portfolio I build. Especially not for the reasons stated above. Damned!
This is the second time in a week that a bill auction has closed at exactly 0%. The Treasury has auctioned off $57 billion since December which is yielding absolutely nothing. Surely, this can go on forever. In fact, can the US reverse roll all of its $7 trillion in marketable securities in the form of 1 months? That would surely help the deficit as no interest has to be paid by the US. Ever.
K,
You guys “think” (analyze) a lot about this stuff in your club. Maybe that’s what you have to do to be an investor vs. a trader.
i just found it funny and Mitch’s remark made it funnier.
Get ‘em Mitch… It just proves not all criminals are behind bars!
George! The cat said a bet on C is a bet on the US. I’m livid!
i can’t wait for the coming days when S&P will move up and down more than 10 points. Volatility come to papa please. 1106 on the SPX is crucial support right now
SRS has a 9/36/15 cross.
Mitch, I hear ya…
Don’t be fooled by SPY, it takes the slow trendline of the MACD to touch the zero, not the fast line.
But I have to say that the SPY 60min stochastic has crossed below 80 and the MACD has 1 tick down. NOT GOOD
NOTE: the candle forming the tick down on SPY’s MACD histogram has to complete before it is a ringer!
Now I know why Citi has two tittles in its name – they do tittle size capital raises and capital conversions!
Here’s an updated SPY daily with the trendlines and Matt’s rectangle. Not how price is hugging the upper line and the number of touches it’s made:
http://i45.tinypic.com/24m534w.jpg
Hahaha ok not funny
A Greek, An Austrian And An Irishman Enter A Bailout Bar… Ireland Joins The 2nd Round European Collapse Brigade
Irish banks will need significantly more capital and 50% state ownership of the country’s two leading banks is “quite possible,” Patrick Honohan, governor of Ireland’s central bank, said Tuesday.
Speaking to a parliamentary committee, he said: “To the extent that needed capital cannot be sourced by the banks themselves, the government has indicated that it will be prepared to make the necessary investments.”
Zerohedge link not working at the moment so i wont paste it.
Obama talked to bank leaders and told them to start lending to create jobs. Immediately after that, several came out and said they were going to pay back TARP.
I exaggerate of course, but that sucking sound you hear is TARP money coming out of the market.
How ’bout that American dollar carry-trade? Never thought I’d see that.
One more thing about TARP, it gave financial institutions an excuse to lower dividends, and put a smoke screen on “real” inflation. TARP is being paid for by the fixed-income class of America.
Shame on “them”.
did he do that just now? cause this is funny if he did.
Here is a TARP analysis y’all might like !
String
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ratigan-dissects-tarp-repayments
C 3.51 and falling.
you’re right it wont go to 0 but it’ll go to 1.50
Hi Stringm, long time not hear. Hope all is well.
a lil video before 3pm fun
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-were-shorting-autos-china-and-commodities-but-not-financials-2009-12
its fast money so take it with less than a grain
George
I am swell, just been busy, and really don’t want to go long or short.
String
time for a C scalp? nah id rather not but it’s coming lol
i got my hand on the trigger
2thfixr is missing all of the inverse hugs…
And now for something completely different.
Some fractal questions for Matt:
1. Does Carlos’ program you linked to in “Fractal Dimension Index” produce the same plot as your FDI? Same period?
2. I’ve found a programmer who says he can code the indicator (I referred him to your FDI post) to use with NinjaTrader. Should I have him use Carlos’ program as a starting point as I’ve already suggested to him? What other info would he need?
3. Does the stock price chart have to be weekly or monthly bars to produce the weekly or monthly FDI chart?
4. On the FDI charts David Nichols does for gold, he puts the range numbers on the y axis going between 30 and 55 for end-of-trend and end-of-range. I take it this is the same as 1.30 and 1.55 ranging between the theoretical 1 for a line (no chaos) and 2 for a plane (total chaos). Is this correct?
5. Nichols is the only devotee of fractal stock charting to look at it in terms of energy. He sees the cycling between 1 and 2 as energy build and energy dissipation and analyzes by energy – sort of like flows of entropy I guess. Is this a Nichols invention?
K Says:
December 15th, 2009 at 9:42 am
once futures break and close below 1102 on the hourly I will rejoyce. if a close for 2 straight hours above the 1107 i won’t rejoyce much but will think of reversing position for time being. right now it bounced off 1103.47
and rejoyce I am!
i mean i have yet to rejoice as we would need to close as it needs to close below at 4pm and then maybe 5 and 6pm sessions (this is the futures )
I went into C at 3.55 rode it to 3.59 and quit back at 3.55 lost commission but worth a try at scalping
we closed at 1103 so def bounced again. argh!
Nice little bounce back of SPY for a dime.
there’s a few things in this post to take note of for tomorrow (besides the chart)
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/12/bookkeeping-sold-off-index-long.html
Hey ALL…I’m using my new “free” netbook and an uprotected Wi-Fi router in my office’s neighborhood. I read through the blog. I see my SDS got a hug today. Yeah! Time to visit the bottom of the rectangle again and maybe punch through it this time. George, looks like my UUP chart is shaping up like a champ!
SSI,
My degree is in computer science, so I’m no mathematician. Carlos invented the algorithm, and should certainly be considered the authority. I have never subscribed to David Nichols’ newsletter, so I don’t know exactly what he does.
My understanding is that the time period of the data is not material. If you feed weekly data into the algorithm, you get a weekly FDI plot. If you feed minute data into it, you get a minute FDI plot.
Matt
Speaking of Citigroup
Abu Dhabi fund seeks Citi deal scrapped or $4 bln
http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1513484420091216?rpc=44
Citigroup gains massive tax break in deal with IRS
$38 Billion Tax Cut Granted to Citigroup to Help Improve the TARP Results
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/12/38-billion-tax-cut-granted-by-irs-to.html
WOW looks like C is the talk of town lol
OMG, 2thfixr is hooked! “No, Mr. Smith, that is not an x-ray of your teeth, that’s my SDS chart.” LOL
UUP is looking good. Hope it holds.
check eur/usd price now and see this i posted friday
—–
K Says:
December 11th, 2009 at 10:43 am
ok guys I’m relinquishing another secret chart of mine.
I cant keep secrets well.
I’ve had this chart drawn up since i believe august then readjusted the top trendline a bit in mid october.
http://i46.tinypic.com/fyhe6f.png
EUR/USD chart… enjoy courtesy of K
Well, it was the most expensive netbook of all time–I purchased $3,000 worth of filling material and got a “free” netbook with the purchase. Just trying to stimulate the economy!!!!
Actuall, it is the ARGGGHHHH chart….only found in dental offices.
Loved the bear wedge this AM, so my swing trade on SDS is still viable. I’m going to put a stop above the upper trendline, just in case the market decides to get crazy stupid at 2:15 Wednesday. However, using Julie’s rule, the SPX was down more than 10 times the DOW, so the trend direction should hold. We’ll see–and profit–if that is the case. Seems like everyone wants the breakout to the upside and are getting long. I’ll play the contrarian and hopefully the market will reward that boldness. A 26 point drop from the bottom of the rectangle puts us right at 1060 and STILL inside the megaphone–meaning a nice big rebound back UP to test the top of the megaphone would still be a valid pattern! C’mon wave 4 up on UUP, followed by a nice wave 5 and final top in the markets!