Tuesday’s Trading
Still Too Many Bulls?
Yesterday morning, I suspected that the crowd was leaning bullish, and that we might get some more downside. Sure enough, the Ticker Sense blogger poll Monday morning proved out my suspicion.
Did enough bulls capitulate on Monday? I don’t know, but looking around the blog-o-sphere I still see quite a lot of hope, and some griping about the “rigged” market. Those writers sound like trapped bulls to me. Also, this market doesn’t seem to be able to rally until a sufficient number of late-to-the-party shorts build up to provide fuel for the short squeeze. So maybe the market has to drop for another day or two before it can rally.
On the other hand, the ‘Daq might be able to put in a “Get Lost Jerry Yang” rally since a deal may finally become feasible with him no longer steering Yahoo into icebergs. ‘Daq futures are down a bit less than S&P 500 futures as I write this, so it does look like there is a bit of relative strength there.
SPY MACD
SPY’s daily MACD has turned negative for the first time in three weeks. The XLF’s has been negative for four trading days now.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:07 am
Matt;
Good call on Monday.
SP500 has been trading under the 9MA for 8 days now briefly touching it 3 times. Daily stochastic bottomed 4 days ago and wants to cycle up; this should create some volatility over the next couple of days.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:20 am
K Says:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
BBT is at $27 AH. i could make more if i buy on a gapdown. from what i see we should recover soon enough so instead of trying AH i will try going with the euro.
K;
The reason I would buy BBT at the close is based upon its stochastic daily cycle which has bottomed out and moving up while price remains depressed. It doesn’t mean it will go up tomorrow, but it will in the near future. I have no fear when it comes to BBT as long as I am buying it reasonably lower than recent price.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:26 am
Charlie;
That setup (”I’ll be looking for SSO or SDS to break over the 1 minute 36MA, come back and test it and move up. Or, wait until the 5 minute MACD goes positive along with the stochastic. If these happen that is…”) I mentioned yesterday is something I have been researching and noting.
Both of these happened: The MACD on SDS 5 minute began turning up, I switched to the 1 minute, waited until SDS went over 1min, 3MA, then pull back, reverse and turn back up.
This is a common pattern when either of these two begin ranging (pancake). They both will make several false moves on the 1 minute when finally one will follow this pattern. That’s the final push for the day. It doesn’t happen every day, but almost. Plus, this can be used anytime there is a pancake.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:27 am
Charlie; Should be “…waited until SDS went over 1min 36MA…”
November 18th, 2008 at 4:30 am
I feel like JG… lonesome blog.
No, I never sleep.
November 18th, 2008 at 5:14 am
George, to give you some company and you’ll like it:
I was trying to get a feeling for how this market compares to the 30ies as I’ve seen some quant studies showing the market moves this year fit best (better: only) with data from the bad old times (and a bit with the infamous 87 spike which I consider to be a singularity). As you know VIX or better VXO data has a rather limited historic record going back to 1986 so I decided to look for a proxy. I have played a bit with the numbers and developed something which uses the volatility of the stock prices. r-square is 0,75 so it is not perfect but should be good enough to get a feeling. I also checked with the “real” VXO data and there are not many false positives or negatives.
The results are pretty impressive. In more than 60 years since WW2 I count 7 events, in 4 years after 29 13, 5 of which spiked higher than 08 so far. 1929 created a spike far higher than 87 so the ppt did a good job ;-). April to June 32 we had more than 80 days of continous elevated volatility, we have not had 30 this year.
Here are all instances with the magnitude of the spike ranging from * to ****
** 10-11/08
* 7/02
* 9/01
*** 10-11/87
* 9/74
* 8/73
* 9/46
*** 5/40
* 4/39
* 7/38
* 9-10/37
* 7-8/33
** 5-6/33
* 2-3/33
* 10-11/32
*** 8-9/32
*** 4-6/32
*** 12/31
*** 9-10/31
* 6/31
* 4/31
* 10/30
** 6-7/30
**** 10-12/29
Interesting times ahead
November 18th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Oslo down another 3%. 60% from ATH in May.
Just sold my Double-short ETF’s. Returns YTD are spectacular.
Thanks to Matt & The Gang for all the help.
90 Cash, 10 Gold
November 18th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Congratulations Larry!
November 18th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Yerk;
Good analysis. That took a lot of work.
November 18th, 2008 at 8:17 am
I read somewhere that SPX will go down to the 700-750 area. I’m not sure what that was based upon. The lower the better for the next counter rally. Perhaps this is setting up for a Santa Rally. Merry Scalpmas.
K;
I also meant to say that I am looking for a short-term “bounce” out of BBT. If it turns into something more than that, it’s a bonus. And if there is a good upturn in the financials down the road, I may go 1/4 truckload.
I suspect financials need a little more negative news to get completely flushed out. That may take a while longer.
November 18th, 2008 at 8:54 am
George,
In case you missed it, BBT said yesterday that it is getting $3.1 billion from the TARP. Also, on Fast Money last night, hedge fund manager Karen Finerman said that she was shorting BBT because she had concerns about its commercial real estate portfolio.
Matt
November 18th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Thanks Yerk. Great work on that list. So this will be 12 mths in paradise for traders?
November 18th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Nice trading Larry!
November 18th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Most of the inverse stocks (SDS, QID, SKF) have a gap up off the last stochastic low. This deserves to be watched in the coming days.
Conversely, the underlying are setting up for a nice move up to their overhead down gap.
UYG is delicious at its current $6 tag. I’ll be partaking in that feast and may have my Thanksgiving early.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Those inverse gaps are on the daily charts.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:17 am
TNX is negative, down -.67 or 1.82%. Bearish on the charts but could turn around soon.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Hey George,
thanks for you tips you posted above. I’ll be watching the 36 MA more carefully. I went back and looked at a few more days and your technique seems to work very well
November 18th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Matt;
Thanks, yes, I did miss that about BBT.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:30 am
BTW.. I also looked at the BBT chart and it just seems to be that there is more immediate downside. The 15 min chart is just starting to cycle downwards. I think that the fact you missed the buy last night is probably good as you can probably get it cheaper this morning. Just my opinion at least
November 18th, 2008 at 9:42 am
I hope Karen Finerman bot a lot of BBT shorts. Scalped for .80c. Waiting for more.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:46 am
This is border line of being sick in the head. Bot 5000 of UYG for .10c gain.
Beggers can’t be choosy.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Nice scalp on BBT George… by just looking at the 15 min, I could have sworn it was going to go down further. I guess I was wrong and so was Karen.
BTW. how’s SSO looking to you right now?
November 18th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Here’s testament to trading: I’ve made more in 15 minutes than I would have made in 2 weeks at my old job.
GO BBT!
November 18th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Charlie;
Still could go down. I’m just scalping 1 minute and not long-term unless it perks up.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Charlie; I missed this…
SSO doesn’t have the 15 minute advantage, so more downside or pancake until change of command.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Congratulations Larry.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Charlie;
I’m keeping an eye on UYG when SDS makes this double top and if it loses it.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:07 am
I’ve also been watching UYG and ICE
November 18th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Well, Bernake speaking… what do we expect?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:11 am
with Ben speaking.. we should be shorting George
November 18th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Agree!
November 18th, 2008 at 10:17 am
UYG got into the 5.80s, now in the 6s… man, honey, honey. I’m gonna let some ride if it takes off.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Pretty big green candle on UYG. Was that you George
November 18th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Same stocks, over and over again make profits all day. Gonna be a busy day.
Where’s my peanuts…?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:23 am
No Charlie,,, I sold half at that time. lol
November 18th, 2008 at 10:25 am
I’ll get into SKF again if it warrants.
I’m not trading DIG and DUG today. Too much other juice. BBT just keeps on giving with its deep cycles.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:27 am
I’m hanging on longer with some of my scalps due to their depressed price levels. Let’em run longer. Working good.
ICE
November 18th, 2008 at 10:28 am
BBT following SSO to the “T”.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Very good counter by SSO… SDS hitting 36MA support, 15 minute. This will define direction for the next hour or so depending upon what it does here.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:38 am
If UYG backs off here on the 1 minute then turns up off support on 36MA, MOON SHOT or moon shot.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:41 am
hey george i’m tempted by many of these. stocks you are talking about LOL
but i made myself a rule to follow. never trade before 11 HAHA
November 18th, 2008 at 10:47 am
K;
In this crazy market, it doesn’t respect any time frame. May as well get dirty now.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:47 am
looks like is breaking down george
hmm do i sell?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Moment of truth for SSO/SDS. Watch the 1 minute.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:48 am
FYI - SSO wants to turn up while SDS wants to turn down.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:49 am
There’s definitely positive divergence on the SSO chart.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:53 am
SDS to win because of the 15 minute advantage?
Now, if UYG galls back down below $6 will look for another setup.
K; You can afford UYG… wait until it bottoms out.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Charlie - on the 1 minute time frame?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Is that Sheila Bair or an avatar speaking ? If it’s an avatar, sure is a dynamic speaker
November 18th, 2008 at 10:58 am
oops George, I miss-read the 5 min ICE chart on MACD. Flipping through too many charts at once
The market is starting to roll over it seems though.. the showing of the bulls wasn’t very strong this morning.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:59 am
george i got some UYG at 6.06 sadly. i should never do anything when i wake up
when it hits 5.57 is my sell target to cut losses. I know this isnt a market for stop losses really but after seeing what happened to some of the trades I let run.. well lets say i need to be more strict.
if you havent seen my losses check this comment.
http://www.trivisonno.com/weekend-stock-market-discussion#comment-18230
basically my worst trades were when i let the losers run.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:02 am
another stupid move. UYG got sold cause i didn’;t do limit stop i did limit. BL:AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
November 18th, 2008 at 11:04 am
K;
I’d take that stop-loss off. But I don’t think it will go that low.
I’m waiting for it to bottom on 1 minute and start coming back. $6 isn’t bad though, some kind of pivot point, looks like.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Oh, no! Get back in when it bottoms - watch the 1 minute chart. Sto and MACD start to turn back up.
lol
November 18th, 2008 at 11:06 am
ok this time i got back in in my parents account since i don;t think i an buy and sell same stock more than once in a day without being on margin
November 18th, 2008 at 11:08 am
i’m starting to think i should do margin.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:10 am
8% margin rate. hmm is that whenever i pay it off or is that monthly? me confused
November 18th, 2008 at 11:13 am
I can’t help but believe that the greed and manipulation of our markets has not changed, and that we push up into expirations day to the Max Pain areas. At a minimum, $31.50 or so in the QQQQ.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Silly rules… gets my dander up.
K - what time frame are you trading and what do you expect?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Eli,
the PPT will hae a lot of work ahead of them if they need to push the market that far up. What I have noticed is that the SPY Max Pain has been dropping steadily over the past few days. Now it is @ $28 which is entirely possible. Maybe we do a meet in the middle and get $27?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:20 am
here goes UYG
November 18th, 2008 at 11:20 am
eli;
I’m not sure how all of that options expiration stuff works. At this point, SSO would have to get the 15 minute advantage to continue moving up.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:21 am
i expect up up up george LOL.
i only 5 min could turn and break 6.09
November 18th, 2008 at 11:23 am
I am also noticing that the pain from call options is much much higher than the pain from put options.. so given that.. I’m wondering if there is even that much motivation to push the market higher for options x.
BTW.. K.. that was a tough for you. Hopefully you got back in.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:24 am
yeah charlie it was tough -$23 including comission. and here we break down again? Blast it
November 18th, 2008 at 11:29 am
TNX gapped down today. Future sweetness.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I hear ya K - up up up and away! For UYGly anyay.
We’re getting pancakish now. Somebody rattle that cage and make it move.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Watch ICE.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:32 am
HAHA, K must have rattled the Kage.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:34 am
George let’s hope i rattled it hard enough haha.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:36 am
hehe
So me the luv, Ms Market!
November 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Show
November 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Hey K,
UYG back to your buy-in price.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:38 am
now george we need some extra gasoline for UYG to break out the 5 min 36MA. i heard PPI on energy dropped 25% i think we can pinch in and light this baby on fire.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:39 am
…then we’d be SMOKIN’
November 18th, 2008 at 11:39 am
i got into my parents account and averaged down to 6.03. break even after commission is sadly 6.12 LOL so that gasoline is greatly appreciated.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:41 am
well 1 min stoch is turning but i am looking for 5 min fire to ignite.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:41 am
ICE nice during that last jaunt - almost faked me out with that gap down on the 1 minute! Gasp, haven’t seen that before.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:44 am
UYG needs the 5 minute to polevault over the 36MA to continue on. STo and MACD look good.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:50 am
i think this time UYG is gonna burn george. stoch 1 min fell down to oversold quick. quick recovery means back on the grill is the 5min
time is coming 
wanna cook some burgers on top of it?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Charlie
Did you mean the Max Pain for the SPY is $98? Thanks
George, I agree on the call vol, but I believe it’s still to their benefit to have a net zero for the most profit.
And when you look at the incredible run up to options Friday last month, you have to wonder how they did that. The GM issue could be the catalyst thi week , or a move by the PPT if we close below SPX 845 today.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Burgers is fine, then we’ll end up with steak.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:53 am
you like the steak medium well?
it’s getting there.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Weeeeee…. ain’t this fun?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:56 am
steaks for breakfast or brunch? yeah i wish i could add some wine to the fire
November 18th, 2008 at 11:57 am
My steak? Clean its ears, wipe it’s butt and send it on in.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:58 am
K was you sell point 6.09?
November 18th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
nah george. have no sell point yet. i break even after comission around 6.12. you think the fire is losing it’s heat?
November 18th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
No, I’m hanging in there. It will have tough resistance around 6.20.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
i don’t know if we can do wrong holding all day? or can we?
November 18th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Going to break for lunch appointment. Keep my place.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Well, holding depends upon price action. I am keeping mine because of the number of tests it has made at that bottom.
It could go back into the 5s, but I’m not worried because this is a major low for it.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
gimme your account info. or better yet i’ll try not to let your steak burn.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Depends on what one is after. For a core position, which I do all the time, I get shares, leave them, then trade with and against them.
For example, I think core would be good in SSO right now. Then trade with and against them.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
well i dont think i have margin or enough capital to trade like you george. maybe i shouldnt be playing intraday at all with my crazy commissions and low share amounts.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
i just burned your steak am sorry.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Hey Eli,
Max Pain for SPY is actually at 96.0 now, but SSO Max Pain is at $28 and Max Pain for QQQQ is at $32 as you say, but the spread between the “pain” at $28 - $32 on the Q’s is not that high right now. If there is a lot of cash at stake, then maybe they will do a great push, but right now, given the low spread, I’m not sure if it is worth the PPT’s time and risk.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
To put thing in perspective, the options value on the SPY between $86 (where we are now) and $96 (current Max Pain) for Nov is about $650 Million or so. To get there, the SPY needs to gain $10 or over 11%.
November 18th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Maybe a bellwether for the day?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MET
November 18th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Larry,
Just saw your post. Congrats! What’s all this about being the self-proclaimed worst trader in the world? (I know you mean you don’t day trade.) Hey– you made money this year, and that places you in the top few percent! WTG!
November 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
This downturn was easy to predict (at least in hindsight). So just be right and sit tight.
The future will be different. Trying to pick up some stuff from you guys. But will have more cash holdings, have to focus on the job.
Good night from other side of planet.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
The XLF is leading the way down again, and has set a new low below Thursday’s washout-capitulation-triple-bottom-successful-retest-of-THE-bottom.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
This downturn was easy to predict (at least in hindsight).
Predicting in hindsight is always easy - or next to impossible. Sounds like preemptive revenge to me. Contradiction in terms.
@Matt: November is the month we will see a closing below 8000 in the DOW.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
wow really?
no turnaround till mid 2009?
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20081118&id=9388942
i think this is perfect what he is saying trying to get a good short squeeze haha
November 18th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
@Larry: Yep, it never was that easy. With hindsight I would enter those index deals which went far more than 1000% up from early September to Mid-October. Anyway, a decade full of black swans awaits us and we’ll earn more roadkills due to our careful steering.
@Dressguard: Which year?
November 18th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
This month, this year.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
K, are you’re still hanging onto that UYG? I think that the market is very bearish right now. As Matt pointed out, XLF is leading the way down.
November 18th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Markets looking very weak right now, but they don’t call it turn around Tuesday for nothing.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
yes i am charlie. i guess i should sell.
my 8% loss on a position brings me at 5.54 which am sure it hit. i will just put my stop there and be done with it. I will never learn it seems. lol.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
HPQ’s monster day, up 12%, is making any index or ETF it belongs to look much stronger - especially the DOW. But of course, it’s not doing any favors for things like XLF and IWM.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
well am about to get knocked out. and i have a feeling that will be a bottom haha. another lesson
November 18th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
tick tock tick tock 5.53 approaches.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Hey K, it is hitting 5.54 right now. That was a tough trade in the morning.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
charlie i could have gotten out breaking even when george and I were cooking steak. btw i put 5.53 so it didnt get there YET. it will soon probably.
I’d rather limit losses than repeat the same mistakes all the time. (I think)
November 18th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Did I miss anything?
November 18th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
K;
Don’t you dare sell UYG.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
That is a good move at least. Looks like you weren’t the only one with stops at the lows of the day. Look at the sudden spike in sell volume at the 5.51-5.53 area.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
you just missed K getting Knocked out. OUCHIE
November 18th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
New 52-week lows on the NYSE are marching higher for the third day in a row. So, the momentum for a whoosh down is building.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
charlie 5.50 is a round number so they liked to sell there. next is probably 5.25 if it ever goes there.
i didn’t listen to george and will probably regret it lol
November 18th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
george why couldn;t you be back 10 minutes earlier? BLAH.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
George,
K put a stop in and got taken out I think.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Ah
.50c isn’t anything to UYG! When it takes off, it will easily do a $1.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
ok goeorge your UYG about to bounce back. sorry i couldn;t continue the party with you
November 18th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Hey, I just bot again.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
ok ok am back to the party baby!!!! 5.42 but cannot sell today or else I will be screwed by the rules.
November 18th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Auto execs will be begging Congress for money on TV soon.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
That’s okay.
You did the right thing by using a stop. But that is hard to determine because it depends upon where the trade was entered. Most times when a trade is entered late, the stop goes against us.
I didn’t know you had a stop or I would have suggested you remove it - if for nothing else but the gap it is going to fill on the daily. That’s hard to do seeing something go against ya, I know.
Hang in there.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
There you go… 5.42 is a great price. I got in at 5.44. You Da Man.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
I also got BBT and SSO at that turn. I came back at the right time.
K;
Get back what you lost and keep evaluating where price is going. Don’t try for too much.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
George i just have to have a tough skin. and discipline.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
i cannot sell UYG today tho george so will have to hold at least overnight.
or else i need to put up 20k in margin according to SEC rules. pattern day trader.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
OK, that’s fine.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
This weak market surprisingly looks like it wants to turn. Making a higher low on the UYG.. you guys might have gotten it at the right time.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Right Charlie, this is the lowest it has ever been. I luv whale poop - just a pinch between your cheek and gum.
BTW, BBT down in the 25s again. Deserves watching.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Hey George,
I don’t know if you look much into the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of stocks, but it is noted that many of them have just today broken down an uptrend channel started last week during this “rally”. Also, I’m starting to see MACD crosses and Stoch crosses off of a LOT of charts. Seems to me we are headed lower in the near term.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
SSO Daily chart has a MACD cross developing, also the Q’s, IWM you name it. All are crossing or have crossed.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
hehe, my broker asking me if I Really wanted to buy that many UYG shares. I’ve been selling some as it goes up to keep the scalping personality in check, then buying back when it goes back down.
Every .10c is 500 bucks.
ewww, gross cheek and gum
November 18th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
every .10c from buy in price is half commission for me so maybe i should consider my strategy. not enough capital for scalps
hehe
November 18th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Keep in mind that these are all on the daily charts so maybe the timeframe won’t be as tight as you’re playing your trades.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Hey George, are you taking home some UYG with you tonight?
November 18th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
K you don’t have a flat commision for a round-trip trade?
November 18th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Charlie, yes, not much, maybe 2, 3k shares.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
ICE…
November 18th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Rally tomorrow…woo hoo
November 18th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
K;
I’d have to think a while about what your strategy needs to be with your restrictions. I mean, if they don’t let you trade freely, that’s a heck of a handicap.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Hey Matt.. are we reaching overbought territory? Seems to me the market had to really spend a lot of energy coming this far back from the lows of today.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
well i could go on margin. but i wonder how the 8% margin interest works.
am trading with my own CASH and not on margin. I know it sucks that’s why i loved doing trading with daily charts. usually averaged 7-14 days and made decent on most trades except for the losers that I let run away.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
yeah, rough doing daily swings right now. I used to do that but the market wasn’t like this.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Plus, having more variety, like being in BBT, SSO, UYG, ICE, all booming right now for a short move.
November 18th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Test 8700 before 8000
November 18th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
What a great trading day even though I missed a few hours.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
The market turned around this afternoon after Cramer turned bullish on oil just before 3pm on CNBC. The XLE bolted higher and dragged up the S&P. Is oil really done going down? We will see…
The XLF and IWM made new bear-market closing lows, and the Q’s came very close. No oils to save them. The rest of the market looks like it wants to go down, so I think further rallying is dependent upon Cramer being right about oil.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Bullish on Oil? Didn’t oil finish close to the lows of the day?
November 18th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Charlie, think DIG…
i was tempted and even got in last week but also sold.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
K;
Which charting software or server-based do you use? I use StockCharts and AskResearch.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Hey guys, some of you guys might be interested in this:
http://www.yorba.tv/yorbatvlive.htm
traders network - streaming with guests that answer your questions. I just asked the guy on right now if he felt if oil has bottomed and he answered.
lol.. he felt that the bottom has been made and that we move up from here. So maybe i do buy some DIG.. but I’m not sure about this guys record.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
i use td ameritrade strategydesk and for daily i use stochcharts.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
charlie oil has bottomed !
November 18th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Charlie;
I saw your question. Neat.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
i wonder what bollinger bands he uses?
November 18th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Yeah.. pretty neat. Maybe you can be a guest too George
You can show us some of your tricks live.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Charlie,
Cramer thinks that since oil stocks are relatively strong, that they are signaling that oil is done falling.
Of course, up until yesterday Cramer was apoplectic that Exxon and Chevron were being “manipulated” higher. For a guy who claims that he doesn’t short any stocks, he certainly gets awfully excited at times. I think that Cramer was short the oils and just barfed up and went long today. He will be yelling about oil on TV a lot now.
Matt
November 18th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
So with Cramer bullish on oil means that it is going to fall harder after a few days.. which coincides with this crash that people have been expecting to happen.
November 18th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
November 18th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
K;
I’m not familiar with TD - I assume you use them for intraday. Do you have a subscription to StochCharts or use their free daily?
November 18th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Charlie,
That sounds about right. Cramer is always late to the party, but his followers can fulfill his prophecies for a short time. So perhaps USO and XLE will have a few days in the sun before Cramer starts shrieking about how evil shorts are manipulating them down.
Matt
November 18th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Expected crashes won’t happen.
November 18th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
USO’s MACD has been positive on the daily chart for almost two weeks now, so it has been declining more slowly, but I can’t say I see any signs of a reversal yet. There might be a small falling-wedge pattern on the hourly chart over the past two days, so maybe it could pop a couple of bucks with Cramer touting oils. But I wouldn’t expect that to end oil’s bear market since the economy is still contracting.
November 18th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Dressguard,
You are backing off of your Dow 8000 call already?
Matt
November 18th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
No, I stick to it. It’s not a crash though. Maybe it will be seen as such as you can see by the heavy artillery the bulls are mobilising every day. But percentage wise we are very close to it when you look at the daily lows. So it’s not a big call for me actually.
November 18th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Shelby is enjoying posing questions to these Detroit big shots.
November 18th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Though we shouldn’t trust the futures, they are already down
November 18th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
To be more specific about my bearish call: 7000 in the DOW, 700 in the S&P till Dec. 19th. (@Yerk: 2008
) 