Reindeer 6, Bears 0
The talking heads on CNBC today were all upset that there was no Santa Claus rally. But in fact, the S&P 500′s Santa Clause rally now amounts to 6 points. The SPX closed at 863 on December 23rd, so that is the starting point.
The bears are “getting the antler” from the reindeer right now, but the technicals look very shaky to me. If the market holds up through the end of the year, I think it will only be because the big funds are painting the tape. So, don’t go getting all bullish. The market will likely flop right over first thing in 2009.
AIPC is freekin tempting me still. i didnt jump gun at 10 i didn’t at 15 now ive watched it skyrocket further
do I dare celebrate the new year by holding onto SHorts ? HAHAHAHAHA
Since I am heavy short I am biased, but doesn’t S&P500 look ready to dive? I am looking at MACD/EMA in a 1, 3, 6 and/or 12 month perspective.
Also, the January rally is being called left and right out there.
And finally, as Yerk pointed out, earnings forecast are finally coming down. Not enough yet, but down a little every week.
Alcoa Q4 earnings: January 12.
Alcoa starts earnings season way too late. This is OE week!!! Damn!!!
DAX opens more than 1% up. Germans love recessions, too!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWdmP.o6Py1s&refer=home
Japan’s GDP for the quarter ending in December is now expected to fall at three times the rate previously anticipated.
DAX breached the magic 4800 hurdle. Futures very greenish.
TNX has been in a near-parabolic move down the past month. It looks to be at a daily mini-double-bottom on the daily. It has a nice gap down it created 8 days ago on 12-17. If it holds true to form, if it moves up, it will correspond to a market move up.
DAX breached? It bounced off of the 4800! How often did this beast do it the last weeks. No way it can hold the line and stay over 4800.
One more bet on falling oil prices. Buying a discount airline in Europe that has fallen 75% in ’08. It hasn’t hedged fuel.
A nervous hedge sort of
50 short
30 long discount airline
20 cash/gold
Robert McHugh is mildly bullish, believes a multi-week rally is the most likely scenario short-term.
https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/newsletter/bpdf/TII_Newsletter_984A_12.29.08_7055475115.pdf
BB & T speaks out on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) saying they took 3B in gov’t monies but didn’t like it – not to do so would have put them at a competitive disadvantage. Also interesting:
“I’ll tell you what the TARP money has also done,” Denham said. “It has essentially propped up a number of acquisition prospects that might have been available to us.”
Ahhhh…so the weak will survive, just what Darwin had in mind…
As to the DAX I was wrong .
Randall;
It says a lot that BBT didn’t need the TARP. And they’ve given their hand about acquisitions.
Is Case-Shiller out yet?
Since 11/24 Nasdaq has been up 13 days & down 11. If you’ve never had beef jerky, this is it.
meant to add: In other words, a pox upon both bulls & bears.
Most people think directionally North & South. Mkts spend more time going East (sideways) especially after big moves in one direction.
dave;
Agree about ranging markets. That’s what makes scalping lucrative no matter what the direction.
Consumers lost confidence! Strange? Don’t they believe in Santa anymore? We have another Santa in store. The red one failed, so how will the black one do next month?
George, when i was a floortrader, locals made money in most markets except the BIG move days when we tended to get overrun by the orderflow.
Opinion/direction traders tend to get chewed up in ranging mkts.
dave;
You were a floor trader? Wow, you should be calling some shots! I agree.
BIG move days; range mkts; opinions; direction trading; scalping. It’s a yin/yang thing. I know that you & Matt already know that.
Btw, early Oct showed why there’s always a need for real pits & trading floors; and that there are some big inherent weaknesses to only electronic trading.
dave;
Are those weaknesses “market effeciencies” or “deficiencies”?
BTW – how do floor traders determine the change of command, as I call it, or market reversals and when to buy on the dips or to sell on the peaks? I use the 15min time frame stochastic and MACD to determine that.
I’ll tell you one market deficiency I used to trade and that is the spikes. I bought at EOD if a candle closed down and black, set a sell stop at .10 or slightly below the ATR, and bingo – couple hundred bucks every day.
What happens is that some stocks, and often many, will either open higher the next day or spike above the low of the previous day.
However, this should only be done with a stochastic at the bottom or moving up. No fuss, no muss.
George, you can hear the demand from the floor BROKERS (representing MER; GS, & the public, etc) when you’re selling or supply when you’re buying. And you keep doing until you hear it change direction – “price discovery” – make sense ??
I mean would you be trying to sell a 10 lot if MER is trying to buy 1000 contracts ?
@Dave: That’s easy!!! Piece of cake!!!
dave;
I didn’t realize they still shouted that stuff out. Yeah, makes sense.
Knowing me, I’d shout something different from what I was really doing.
So, they go by price alone, no charts?
it’s not easy
, but my analogy has always been where is it easier to direct traffic from — the middle of the intersection or from the 5th floor of an office building on the corner of the intersection ?
they can now use handheld PC’s and access the type stuff we look at but open outcry still supplies you with better supply/demand info
dave;
Did, or do, those floor traders hate us armchair scalpers? Or, do they luv us because they can scalp US?
no insult meant, but off-the-floor scalpers aren’t much of a factor. As another guy told me “You’re not here to trade with me; you’re here to trade with them (the public’s floorbrokers)” And floortraders aren’t looking for the small orders; they’re looking for size (no naughty comments !)
If you don’t know who Tom Baldwin is, read Market Wizards.
Charlie must be a full-time babysitter today or cooking 2 dozen eggs.
“Knowing me, I’d shout something different from what I was really doing.”
George, if someone “hit” you, what would you do then ? Say “i didn’t mean it” ? If you’re bidding or offering someone is going to hit you unless you’re far away from the mkt; and if so too often traders are going to tune you out as being frivilous.
lol George..
I AM babysitting today. My trading strategy yesterday was all wrong. I will only attempt to babysit and trade today. No eggs
dave;
I have both Wizard books.
I wouldn’t mind someone hitting me as long as it is a stack of $100 bills.
Seriously, I thought they were trading against each other rather than with each other. No contrarian plays, etc? I am ignorant when it comes to “real” (big) trading like those of you that floor trade.
BBT, DIG/DUG have been disappointing so far today. I’m waiting on BBT to hit its 5min 36MA to see what it does there. It made it over its 30min 36MA so it may backtest that MA.
locals prefer to trade with floorbrokers because the floorbrokers will give up the edge. Most locals are competing with each other for the floorbroker’s order flows. Most locals are still contrarians as well as being cantankerous sorts.
I’ve seen many epithets hurled, fights picked; when the bell rang the perpetrator might say to the offended “Let’s go have a drink.”
dave;
Sounds like a tough living. I couldn’t nor would I do that although I know it pays off well if you know what you’re doing.
That seems awfully stressful Dave. I guess traders know when comments are not to be taken seriously and that it is all just part of the job.
Why did you leave that career or are you retired now Dave?
Note to all.. 886 – 888 is resistance. We could see a pullback once we hit that.
Thanks Charlie, I see it is really oversold on the higher time frames in a parabolic fashion. Could keep going but will reverse at some point.
SSO have been good. Mini double-top on the 1min.
Charlie, i have gout which can be triggered by stress. During the 6 yrs, i was a local i never had one gout attack.
OTOH, i use to run 11 miles 4 times a week & did a fairly good job of wrecking my ankles. That’s not conducive for jumping up & down for 6 or 7 hours a day.
For those who might be interested i think this CDO trading that the Merc is starting could be a great opportunity. I wish i had the time to start a small company to do so; but i’m not an administrator.
Newsletter advisors still telling investors to sell on strength. Plus, hedgies may get their last licks in toward Y/E (I’m guessing here).
dave;
I couldn’t imagine anything more stressful than floor trading, knowing how it is doing my itsy-bitsy trades from home which is stressful enough at the beginning. I finally figured out how to eliminate all trading stress.
George, when you’re short an uptick looks like a huge rally; when you’re long two downticks look like the China Syndrome. LOL
And if you’re immune to that feeling then one day you’re on the wrong side by 100 ticks & the margin clerk is your new best friend.
Small SRS position here. Considering the strength of the market, it is not revisiting it’s previous lows of $55. That is an important sign IMO..
market needs to go back down to 870
Hey Dave,
Just wanted to say that it’s good to have you as part of this board. We have a pretty good community going and every addition of experience helps us all
George, I have the perfect way to eliminate stress from trading.
Rob a bank instead
Bank robbing can be a stressful endeavor too Drano
I say robbing the government is easier. Apply for bank status, get TARP funds 
Either that or become a politician and get elected.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry couldnt resist. you nailed it charlie. so what do you say? wanna do it?
Drano, remember the jewelry store robbings in Paris recently ? I emailed some friends that it was hedgies meeting margin calls.
Charlie, I’ve commented sparingly before, but the slow holidays give me more time to comment. I can tell that most posters are as passionate about mkts as i am; and that’s a good thing. One of the frustrating things for me is that none of my friends or clients have any appreciation of how fast mkts can be. They all think it’s like going shopping in a grocery store; go to aisle 7 & then go back to aisle 5 & prices will remain the same.
I can always learn something new; and any trader who doesn’t think so is facing a disaster ahead.
hey larry what airline is that? i have been watching a few from the sidelines. look yummy
dave,
not only do I always learn somthing new all of the time but I want to learn all I can. Not looking for the Holy Grail, just to be a better trader to work more of my funds in a logical and risk/reward method.
I’m fairly comfortable with the way I trade and I need to get outside that comfort level to progress – at least that’s the way I see it.
Drano;
I try to rob banks’ stocks every day – does that count? LOL
George, you have a GREAT attitude; you WILL make it.
I hope so dave, thanks.
You actually might not be too far wrong on that jewelry store theory. I bet we’re going to see a lot of “burglaries” reported (the “stolen” items actually stashed by the owners elsewhere, and collecting the insurance payoff) along with the arson fires to get people out of their upside-down positions in their mortgages. Shorty at Capitalstool calls them “fire-closures” LOL
As far as the markets being fast, try watching BGZ and BGU when the market is really moving. Aiyee ! ! ! You’re right, I’m running some money for a relative and it’s mighty hard to get them to understand that this IS NOT EASY.
hey hey hey.. SDS has hit 36ma almost 4 times now. what make yyyy of it. i make that the 36MA wall is getting beaten down fast and we will destroy it.
any thoughts?
and that’s 5 min chart.
K;
I noticed that. The 15min chart is trying to turn up, hence the volatility right now (glad to see it back).
It has some work to do, I’m watching the 30 to see how it turns (stochastic).
Meanwhile, I’m in on the 5min because the MACD and stochastic have me in.
I’ll cut-n-run here cause the 1minute has peaked.
18th century British nobles, after gambling away their fortunes, would often turn to crime instead of suffering the indignity of taking a job. They would be out on the streets robbing people at sword-point. So there is historical precedent for what Dave said about hedgies turning to crime to meet margin calls.
Decision time for SSO 5min hitting 36MA. If no bounce, back into SDS.
i think the decision has been made george
SSO close to losing the 15min advantage. Not there yet, but if it doesn’t have support, the MACD trendlines have one more chance to bounce off the zero line.
Re: “18th century British nobles…” some travel program on PBS yrs ago pointed out that some of the beautiful castles on the Rhine River in Germany were strategically located for pirates to swoop down on river traffic. It’s interesting how generations of time can “clean up” ill-begotten wealth.
HAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAA
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/stop-the-presses-sec-halts-a-ponzi-scheme.html
“In what could possibly be the biggest ‘too little, too late’ moment of the century, the SEC announced today that it halted a $23 million Ponzi scheme targeted at Haitian-Americans. How this one was detected, while the $50 billion Madoff scheme slipped through the cracks is beyond us. “
no wonder the market is rallying. SEC saved the day.
Couple of massive volume spikes in the last 2min of BBT. Also two .40c upside spikes, most likely market orders – could be 401K buying by the bank.
Drano;
Thanks for BGZ/BGU. Noted and added. Oops, I need another monitor.
HAHAHAAHAH GEORGE!!! Please dont Kill me with your monitor requests. I got 2 now i want 2 more.
QID 5min steady rise since about noon. I should point this stuff out earlier.
My SRS is looking pretty good
You can get a great Samsung 22″ monitor for about 229. I think I saw it at Circuit City.
Of course, you might get it cheaper at the going out of business sale pretty soon.
Hey George,
You had 4 monitors before. I think you said you added another recently so does that make it 5?
Drano, LOL. Out of business. I’ve spent beaucoup coins at Best Buy, but the CC closed down here.
I got a 19″ Samsung for $1.49 I believe. I need the wider screen for charts, naturally, and the 22″ are really large.
Charlie;
Yes, 5 monitors plus my wife’s Apple on occasion. I need to take a picture. Hey, it works, I just glance and trade. No swippy swappy.
Might be worth checking on buy.com occasionally too. A friend of mine got a 24″ Samsung there for 249 but they were sold out by the time I heard about it.
Maybe Overstock.com will have some good deals too. I hear that they loaded up on stuff as retailers were having a very tough time this holiday season and that most are holding way to much inventory now.
Note.. I was boxing day shopping at the GAP and noticed the shelves full and no one inside. Pretty sad as compared to last year where the same store had it’s shelves were stripped almost bare and the store was like a warzone.
I noticed the same thing at best buy, old navy etc..
SPY’s 60-minute slow stochastic is now more overbought than it has been since the ZIRP rally on December 16th. If the big funds keep the market up through the close tomorrow to finish their window-dressing, I might do some shorting at the close.
guys check slickdeals.net when you have a chance always great deals
it is hilarious tho. TNX down S&P then rebounds HAHAHA ahh what fun it will be january2nd and forward.
Is the market half open, or is it half closed?
Hey Drano,
I think the market is half manipulated and half insane.
THAT’S why I’ve been having trouble. I’m 100% insane
While we’re bored, what’s the code to get the grin with the red mouth? Is there a list of smilies here somewhere?
google wordpress smilies haha
The red mouth one is a colon and a ‘p’. I think it works with a ‘D’ and a ‘O’ too.
I’m not sure about the green one though.
Economy explained, Calvin and Hobbes style. Written 15 years ago, absolutely prescient.
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/calvin-explains-american-business
ok.. some of those don’t work.
Thanks Charlie. I’ve found that you get different smilies with the same code, on different sites. The colon and P is a tongue sticking out on some sites.
:p
okay.. we know that this market is getting frothy.. the solars are taking off. With oil sub $40, government incentives devoted to rescuing auto and financials, there will be limited investment in green tech for the next year or 2 at least. I love green.. but I just don’t think it is time yet.
“Since I am heavy short…” Larry, you just have to find a woman who is a chubby chaser.
aapl sauce..
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20081230/aapl-sauce/
MOAR?
K
i doubt that AAPL’s next super product is going to be a hearing aid despite being tone deaf on the subject of Jobs’ health
spy is really flirting with middle bollinger band set at 100. (60min chart)
yeah dave i was in this blod when i announced i’d be exiting apple and almost became a contrarian haha since that day ($130′s? ) apple never went any higher.
i got greedy and let a 50% gain run into a 10% loss if memory serves.
Notice SSO’s 1min stochastic bottomed ~3:15 along with the 5min. That made a nice move up that, in a “normal” market move would have been more than ~.30c. But, the setup is just a valid.