Let’s see… We have a Bradley Turn Date, a full moon, Larry Summers warning of a bad jobs number on Friday, and the McClellan Oscillator up at the top of its range… I’m guessing that the turn will be of the “down” variety. Maybe the market will print a swing high sometime this week. What do you think?
Warren Buffett says that the economic recovery amounts to “the slightest uptick” at 4 minutes into this video. And Charlie Munger says that, “Basically, it’s over…” meaning the USA’s prosperity.
The IYT printed a classic bearish shooting star candle on its daily chart Monday. If it sticks, the toppy transports could be a problem for the bulls. The IYT is toying with a 9/36/15 cross-down, and that looks to me like the primary technical drama for today. If it does cross down, then I will be interested to see if Monday morning’s gap serves as support or not.
Both breadth and the TICK finished Monday stretched to the upside. If the bulls can keep the market at least flat while the internals mean-revert, then they will win the day.
Note: I have turned on the Akismet WordPress plugin. It automatically eliminates spam comments, so I’m going to experiment with leaving comments on for all posts. So, watch the “Recent Comments” section in the sidebar of the home page. Interesting fact: 83% of all blog comments are spam posted by bots.
Love the new sub-headline Matt and hope I am not the first to get the “spaminator.” Although, I have been accused of using this blog to “tweet.” lol
Yes Hank, we got beat up by the rain pretty good this weekend, and early forecasts are calling for more rain next weekend. I’ll be in Vegas learning about some new technology I purchased to help keep the economy up and running. As soon as I signed on the dotted line, Sirona stock broke out of a base and started running up.
Now if I could just get my index trades to break out the day I buy…. hmmmm
Ah, K is a bot. There we have the 83%.
EW and retail are convinced this is going to tank soon. Will the big guns follow?
K sticks his nose everywhere.
Oh wait, robots don’t have noses…or do they?
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 78.67 -0.03 -0.04
Natural Gas 4.720 +0.041 +0.88
Corn 381.75 -7.25 -1.90
Soybeans 962.5 +1.5 +0.16
30yr Bond 117.34375 -0.12500 -0.11
10yr Note 117.390625 -0.093750 -0.08
NY Gold 1117.7 -0.6 -0.05
NY Silver 16.500 +0.031 +0.19
Emini S&P 1115.00 +0.50 +0.04
Emini Nasdaq 1846.75 +4.00 +0.22
Emini Dow 10390 +5 +0.05
better post a new futures update after….S&P up 0.50% (5 points) when I post this.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 79.14 +0.44 +0.56
Natural Gas 4.716 +0.037 +0.79
Corn 381.75 -7.25 -1.90
Soybeans 962.5 +1.5 +0.16
30yr Bond 117.15625 -0.31250 -0.27
10yr Note 117.390625 -0.093750 -0.08
NY Gold 1121.6 +3.3 +0.30
NY Silver 16.590 +0.121 +0.74
Emini S&P 1120.50 +6.00 +0.54
Emini Nasdaq 1852.50 +9.75 +0.53
Emini Dow 10434 +49 +0.47
2th – 6 points now
Thanks After… MOO, here we come!
Filtering spam? This may be my last p s t .
Matt…
With baby boomers and others pulling capital from traditional IRAs since they are without work or retired, does the tax withholding site account for tax revenue from IRAs as well as pay checks?
Wayne V,
No, I haven’t attempted to do that. You make a good point though.
Matt
SPY is in the MOO circle. It needs to go to 114.20 to hit the lower MOO resistance line where the gap is waiting.
Unless there is something I’m missing those are the targets I’m looking at.
SPY has a nice uptrend line on the 5min. This is actuallythe same line the 15min prints that acts as a trendline.
http://i45.tinypic.com/28bw60i.jpg
Triple tops on SPY 1 and 5min. It has blown through these the past few days.
SRS keeps being rejected by its 15min 36MA. When it does bust through. LOOK OUT!
Stringm,
SD appears to be working okay today for me. Hope yours is.
BOUGHT TLT………SOLD GLD
Phil,
You smokin’! Do you think there will be a blow-off top on the indexes? I believe you were thinking that at one time.
George
Everything is OK with SD.
String
Thanks Stringm, they must of had data problems yesterday.
Hey, I’m fixin’ chili beans tonight – big snow coming. You probably bounced it back to me.
george….looks like spx 1600 plus is going to happen but it wont be a commodity style blow off..just a grinding upwards bull market…remember this is the FINAL wave up….once above the 1550 spx area you will have to be very cautious because the end will be near
Phil what is your time frame for that call
Phil,
Wow, there’s a lot of uppage coming. I’mma gonna ride this bull, bubba.
Thanks
scotty…..no time frame
Futures turned in the expected target range. Support 1085/95, resistance area 1120/25, 1150 next target. bias is up.
LOOKING for a sharp drop in spx to add to long positions
Phil,
Your SPX target of 1600. No forecast is ever
wrong until the tape tells us it is. I think Matt
has the right slant on the Bradley…and the TCI
is telling us to look for a market top today or
tomorrow.
I’ve been looking at the Bradley for weeks trying
to understand what it is telling us. I’m probably
wrong, but I think it is telling us to look for major
wave C to start,
Will be following the tape as always.
JULIE…the bradley only tells you turns …not direction…also it is less useful in this meandering type market..it is at its best in emotional soaring or plunging marketsas they come int the turning point…..i wouldnt expect too much from it now…arch crawford gave an extensive treatise on the bradley and how it is often misused
also….key to spx 1600 is that a new high above 1150 be made before we overlap 957…..that would give us our first impulse wave up…
Phil,
Was an Arch student and agree with your
Bardley analysis…but it does tell you how
long to look for trend length….it is calling
for a long one this time.
Phil,
The nice thing about making forecasts is that
you can be right or wrong. You have a SPX
1600 target and Junglegirl has a SPX 400
target. I will be sending one of you a loaded
Brinks truck.
Last year it had a trend change from March -June .
Julie: What is the TCI?
SPY still hugging that trendline I drew on the 5min. There is a negative divergence on the MACD.
Jim,
TCI stands for Trader Confidence Index. It
is put out by Mike Korell. A very low number
means you should look for a trend reversal
in one to two trading days….
….chartlines.blogspot.com…shows Mike’s
TCI graph…plus other market forecasts.
Jim,
Correct my typo…chartlinestrading.blogspot.com…
JULIE…..i hope that truck is headed my way … lol……..
Thanks, Julie!
George,
The full sto (10,7,7) on the 1 year DOW
chart in January did not lie to us when
it called for a move down. It is calling
for a move down again…looks like to
DOW 9500.
Julie,
I’ll check that out. Fixing a chart right now.
Thanks
Here’s what I got with the full stochastic 10,7,7:
http://i49.tinypic.com/24qtz4y.jpg
George
So I am sitting here waiting for the red streaks. It has been so long SD might not have any red left.
String
Ha! Stringm, Red must be your favorite color. They’re coming, when is another question.
I’m sitting here nice and cozy with snow pouring down outside. It’s not sticking yet but will when the temperature drops. Supposed to snow all night.
I luv my commute arragements… 25 steps to my office from the breakfast table.
…just sayin’…
George
I like red when I own SDS @ 33.81. If I don’t get some soon I might be gone though!
String
I noticed that the full stochastic is making a “Dolphin” nose. That would normally be a continuation in the current direction. Let’s throw it some fish and see what happens.
Getting REDer.
SPY down at its 15min 36MA for a bounce. At least try.
SKF bumping up against its 15min 36MA. Hug that inverse everyone!
George
I am hugging mine a gave it a love tap too. It is so small I might take it home for the night!
String
There’s a lot of undulating going on the lower time frames. Nice scalps. Hang with the 15 or 30min MACD for longer trades. Or better still, both. Nothing like double-dipping.
Long SKF and SRS.
George .. 25 steps! I’ve been eating breakfast in my office lately! .. AT&T horror day .. modem broke, 2nd time in 7 months ..
Sam,
Now, that’s taking it TOO FAR, eating breakfast in the ‘puter room. However, that’s the “bene” for home work.
Tell me about ATT… their reception is lousy too. Yes, the commercials have it right about their 3G.
you guys are funny. ATT dsl sucks too. i was just at a customer..
i guess time to short T ?
on second thought -12% YTD is enough shorting..
then again VZ is also down the same.
I will run VZ and T by my financial and technical charts and let you know.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/S40dcJZat0I/AAAAAAAAGMg/T73a_sGfanM/s1600/spx.png
Matt
Transports gave up an outside day today. That really doesn’t bode that well for the bulls does it? That Railtimes report from the weekend doesn’t seem too positive either. IYT might be the best short going in the short term. What is your take?
String
Matt
Take a look at CSX. Put up a Doji today. Might be a good short sale tomorrow.
String
did my analysis.
ATT has fundamental problems with liquidity and debt management. the recent news aren’t positive, technically its bad as well.
K overall score of 36%
Verizon only has debt management problems (debt to equity grew more recently aka ’08) technically its not good but has support at least
K overall score of 64%
watcha’ think of my new hybrid style of analysis?
I think i will pick a stock a week and blog about it.
K,
You are the new Holden Buffett.
Julie,
I am?
http://www.bunkbeduniverse.com/table-lamps/36102-holden-buffet-lamp_g140825.html
There has been a lot of noise about unregulated
derivatives but no action. The big boys are
making several members of Congress millionaires
to make sure there is none. It’s like George
buying an insurance policy on his neighbor’s
house. The policy cost George nothing and he
is in the green as long as nothing happens to
his neighbor’s house…but if it burns down, George
is up the creek.
K,
Congrats! You can really find the links.
K,
BTW- you light the way for all of us.
Missed hanging around and posting links lately (although from my skimming it seems like its all greek rumors which do no good)
Is there an elliot wave for figuring out if if George’s insurance will go under?
…
K, look at free cash flow – short both, i’m going to get a “cricket” or “boost” phone (no plan required, and free blackberry .. )
Sam,
thanks!!
free cash flow is the next part I’m working on..
I have yet to get an easy template that i could learn
See if you can find it here
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
String,
Yes, that’s two days in a row for bearish candles on the IYT chart, but it did manage to hold at Monday’s gap today. CSX looks like it hit resistance at its January 20th gap.
Warren Buffett also mentioned the rail data (hat tip to Manuelstop) on CNBC Monday morning, so maybe he put the rails on the radar screens of more bears.
I don’t have a strong opinion myself. I watch the IYT because many traders think it leads the market, and I mentioned it yesterday because it had the most blatant bearish candle. If it fills Monday’s gap, and falls below, that would likely be a bad omen for the market.
Matt
Me buy insurance? Gimme a pen, I’ll sign anything.
I’d put sprinklers in the insured houses. Or only insure the ones next to a fire station.
K,
Good chart of the SPX breakout. MOO is in your future.
George,
Sorry. I had you on the wrong side of the trade.
You were selling insurance policies on your neighbor’s
homes…not buying.