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The most convincing explanation for the current market action to me is a massive push to get the markets as high as possible for next Tuesday to mitigate the effect on pension fund contributions. What effects the actions will have later on remains to be seen but I doubt we see a substantial reversal before then. Maybe the rally will continue to feed a bit on its own but I’d be very surprised if we are trading above 900 during the earnings season. There is still data from the real world coming in although it is difficult to find when the spin masters are flooding the communication channels.
mid-800 next week should be feasible, shouldn’t it?
none of you think this is due to the final 4Q gdp that comes on thursday that will be worse than expected? lol
Who knows.. but I just took profits on the puts I bought for the overnight hold. I don’t trust this market one bit and it is important for all of us to be very nimble.
Right now.. the 3x ETFs look pretty broken. FAZ dropped over 10% during the last 30 mins of trade and that = $3+ dollar drop. Today.. it is up only $1.40 while being up over 7%. <- these prices are changing super fast by the way.
BTW..took profits on the puts where I believe it was close to the daily VWAP based on some other sources I’m looking at. Not taking any chances. Call me chicken
U.S. stocks rallied, capping the market’s steepest two-week gain since 1938, now ready to bust
charlie i dont understand why you dont play 2x instead?
lol
I took profits on my BGZ trade a few minutes ago when the futures bounced strongly off of 805.
If nobody wants to miss the boat, this dip should bring buyers and we should close flat-to-higher for the day.
If we decisively break through 800 than this rally is done. I doubt it though.
May buy some long term + short term puts if we hit 840
But it all depends on my inner chicken 
2.10pm UK
FTSE is a weak mkt today, mining shares and HSBC are dragging and keeping it down.
I am thinking of selling a few puts (Apr/May) on SRS. Commercial real estate will not recover. May result in a good entry price.
Any thoughts?
matt……..havent posted as i have been getting my bond positions in better position to sell …ie scattered in eleven different accounts…. now back long in the stock market as of friday close….option ex moves … ie down friday …are usually reversed monday therefore i bought ddm as dow was far away from resistance and had more room to rally….now 8000 looks like a good place to sell….or so i thought….until yesterday….rallies are now in 5 waves…declines are in 3 waves…..this is the exact opposite of everything we have seen all the way down to 666 spx…the trend is now up….call it anything you want …wave c ..wave p2……lmnopqrst… but i believe you have to buy dips now and forget about shorting…..regards……phil
Listen to that Inner Chicken Gigi! It will save you skin sometimes. Better to keep your skin to trade for another day vs. to lose your skin by trying to be a hero.
gigi
I am in SRS and agree on the fundamentals, but today it is acting weak.
Will be adding to it though when the SPX makes it’s next rally highs, looking at 826, 845, 878 thereabouts.
Futures tested the 805 area for a second time. If they test it a third time, I will bet on a breakdown, which should bring the SPX down to test its 804 breakout level.
Thanks guys. Holding for now. Will reconsider towards the end of the week.
SRS is sitting on long term support.
Jim, there is no “long term support” for 2/3X ultras/inverses. They are designed to go to 0.
Gigi: So you are saying the 47-48 area is not significant?
Jim, not in my opinion based on my understanding of SRS. But I have been known to be very wrong
Phil-
Good luck with your bonds. In my opinion, the
SPX is in a retrace mode. The SPX dropped
about 277 points over a 9 week period. The
normal retrace time is from 1/3 to 2/3 of
the move down period…3 weeks to 6 weeks.
We are in week 3 now.
we closed today’s S&P gap down no?
so let’s go down now what say ye?
K-
If gap is closed in morning, short with a stop
loss 5 ticks above yesterday’s close. If gap
is filled in the afternoon, do not short if ST
trend is up.
Have a great trading day.
K-
Just my opinion.
Julie,
is the duration of the retracement affected by the steepness of the retracement? The current move is quite extreme – looking at history did not show any edge to me.
Yerk-
I don’t think so (just my opinion)…I
think the last retrace took 6 weeks.
Must confess I didn’t look at the weekly
chart, but I think the move down was also
9 weeks.
Yerk-
Paula, Sherry, and I gained the retrace info
from Robert Miner. He has some free info
on his site that may interest you. Goggle
Robert Miner Dynamic Traders.
General bullishness on bear boards and bear discouragement makes me go “hmmm”
Right now we are sitting with a harami cross (bearish, reversal pattern off a top). Of course, it’s not EOD yet….
60 min chart of TNX has a nice red bar this past hr
Above post refers to SPX daily.
JG awesome observation i hope it closes that way
Hope is a 4-letter word.
Drano…that thought has also occurred to me. All cash right now.
I’m becoming increasingly convinced that a good plan in this market now is to sell premium, either with covered calls, or just naked way out of the money calls and puts on individual issues that you think (gulp) you have a handle on.
k……i am looking for a break below 2.464% on tnx for a 5th wave down so i can sell more zero coupon bonds to big ben…..then look for rates to bounce back up for a while
look at my baby SKF go. i almost made a boat load in USD/CAD as well. here we go bears. lets grab some honey
drano…hope is not an investment strategy..lol
Yes, hope really really is a 4-letter word for traders.
As far as selling/buying time: Some of my best and least nerve-wracking trades were selling WAY out of the money LEAP calls, and just letting the time decay do its work. One of my stupidest trades was jumping in and out on CROX puts so that I missed the monumental downmove while racking up relatively small profits. Bleah.
Yerk-
An old trader that I confer with from time-to-time
calls the current retrace a rising terminal wave.
Do not know if you looked into NW or not, but
they have been right on the money.
Marty gives you a good look at the guts of the
market, and we have not had his service that
long…he has said stay in cash. We decided
that when he says go long or short, we are
going to mortgage everything we own…are
currently establishing lines of credit.
Have a great evening
The SPX is back-testing 804, which is obviously a very important test. Since we are still overbought, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a dip into the sevens this week.
julie……looks like your good luck wish for me on the bonds is working…thanks ..ps…. julie… about this…………………………………………………………………………that when he says go long or short, we are
going to mortgage everything we own…are
currently establishing lines of credit…….remember bulls and bears make money…you know the rest…..regards….phil
Phil-
Happy to see things are going well in the
bond world…and yes I know the rest.
Have a great evening Phil.
Julie
Phil & Yerk-
No one can predict the future, but a
classic trade is 3 black candlestick crows
taking the SPX to the 772 area…go
long and retest the high. If the retest
of the high fails, get greedy on the short
side…use stop loss orders. Do not turn
into the pig Phil was talking about above.
Julie
Julie,
many thanks for your advice. I’d prefer cash to mortgaging the house… Marty’s advice is very valid. Too many strings are being pulled & pushed.
Have a nice evening!
SPX daily tweezer top with bearish harami. Fine by me if it turns into three black crows, although the importance of 804 may prevent it from being that easy.
JulieJ, sounds like a plan
Greetings from the animal farm
Junglegirl-
Agree…it’s never that easy.
Yerk-
Was a great book.
Julie, books to read these days.
The journey to and fro shall take less than a week
Julie,
re your 4:09 post: what does NW stand for?
Josef,
I don’t mean to speak for Julie (or anyone else), but I believe she is referring to NeoWave.