The SPX looks like it intends to test its May 4th gap at 877.52. If it does so, I would expect some sort of bounce in that area.
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Matt and Paula,
Thanks for the input.
Matt, 877 area sounds good. Would anticipate the bounce there no only because of gap-fill but because of prior S/R. Just wanted to say this has always been an outstanding blog, and it seems to just keep getting better and better. Kudos, and continued thanks for your ongoing efforts. Know we all appreciate you.
There’s also a channel line in that area, and it fits with wave analysis as well.
GS and XLF both closed below their BBs, and their BBs are very tight. Looks like action coming soon.
Short Charts on the Fly hmmmm.
That Aroon sell signal work well.
Thanks JG.
damn this is great time to buy shorts again
yeah, wanted to add to JG’s comments that this is a great blog Matt and thanks for the great analysis!
for me, hoping the get short again on some bounce and then hold to the 880 range and then get long from there. A larger H-S pattern is forming on the daily chat and a right shoulder still needs to form. Neckline is currently at 880.
HOLY freak look at eur/USD 5 min chart from 2:40 till now… 1.385 to 1.40 in 7 hrs? NO WAY…..
USD/JPY climbed as well somewhat…
what is going on…………… i’m staying on sidelines until I know what gives…
K,
RE: “LETS GO GEORGE.. you in or you out [SKF] for $80?”
I’m IN. I still have the core position I’ve been rotating and the S(K)F Sympathy Shares.
I’m not sure about the $80 anytime soon. $50 or $60 shouldn’t be a problem.
“Sell in May and go away” – myth busted? If it is busted, SKF may not reach even the $60 level anytime soon.
“K Says:
June 22nd, 2009 at 12:14 pm
George,
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD trending up mean weak dollar
USD/JPY USD/CAD USD/CHF trending up mean strong dollar
at most rational markets when the first 3 are trending up the stock market is up (inflated dollars)
when the bottom 3 are trending up that means dollar is deflating and becoming stronger thus it takes the market down.”
K,
Where are we at with this situation and the FOREX you mentioned above?
George,
Daily we are at the first 3 wanting to trend down (at the point where it’s a no man’s land..
Other 3 are there as well.. trending up (just besides canada has the lead in trending up.)
on 5 min chart is a confusing pic but i smell fishy things. let’s see home prices soon
Thanks Charlie.
K,
Okay. This will be interesting.
Tks
Weird Eur/USD action something’s gotta give… http://i41.tinypic.com/ajqbmo.png … I hope
but no as i type this we’re heading higher and higher….
Hey K.. are you still holding your puts?
it’s about to give!!!!!!!!!
no charlie bagged 50-60%
okok just bought spy 87 put again
K, EUR/USD started to turn after midnight EST. No reaction in market place.
nice one there K:) Great gains! I was premature in my profit taking I’m thinking.
Today.. I will hopefully get short again in the 90.50 level which is the 38.2 Fib retrace from yesterday. Will also short more if we hit the 90.80 level again which is the 50% retrace.
Don’t think the bulls will get much farmer past that as they have had a weak showing of late.
k…..maybe you should try decaf coffee…..
BTW.. my fibs may be a bit off as I’m just eyeballing my fib lines right now.
Some resistance here for the inverse. Tops/bottoms.
BTW..GS showing some signs of strength today.. maybe a sign.. maybe..
george…..if this is the case we are going down hard after a small bounce..i dont think it is http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sj_zZdMhGtI/AAAAAAAAA8Q/apzfNow5gfI/s1600-h/dd.png
phil,
Nice roadmap. So it’s going up to “ii” then back down?
phil:
thx for the link. I’m feeling a 918-920 in the next 7 days. I investigated an S&P e-mini position through CME.
Testing tops/bottoms again. Could be the move up for a bit?
Hey Phil,
that is a nice chart, but if you look at little bit to the left where Point A is, that makes for a nice left shoulder where point C is the Head. We stand a good chance to form a right shoulder if we bounce a bit from the 880 range which should take us up to the 920 – 930 range for the top of the right shoulder.
Good scalp trading day so far…
Testing those hi/lo areas again.
Matt,
Nice charts on XME,which is starting to give me a little pain here… But I’m not sure I’ll jump into SMN as the dollar movements seem erratic. Damn the dollar! I was looking to buy up EUR to pay off my mortgage on the Paris apartment, and then, watch it’s value go up as the dollar revisted the 1.60;)
I went short on QID this morning, and will add if I get a chance…
Jumped back into TLT with a half-position at 93.67, with a buy for the other half at 91. Let’s see what happens in the next day or two.
charlie..i dont believe in head and shoulders …they often fail.. how many times have you seen it break the neckline then zoom to new highs???…that was just an elliott flat or zig zag correction that just completed making it look like a broken neckline then rocket to a new high..or if it works out it was a 3rd wave down…
marty …i want to sell my tlt @ 94.5 …lots of resistance there…i will hold my coupon bonds….still may have one more smash down in tlt if stocks rally…if not my bonds should soar…still hoping to buy zero coupon treasuries on any further bond smash
mitch ..george ..charlie…re chart….if that bearish alternative is true..spx cannot move above 927.5….ps 18dsma is now 927.5…i have a small position near spx 900 that i will dump and look to short a bounce..lots of rsistance 910 915….stop is easy ….927.5
Phil,
I’ve never played the zeros. Perhaps it’s a worth a look.
I’m aiming slightly higher on TLT–almost 97… But let’s see what happens. I have a good feeling about this one.
My other thought is that if the market slides below 875, it’s not going to be the collapse that people are expecting, but a grind down that won’t let you get in or out… that’s what it was like back in Jan/Feb… Just an intuition, because the market is not tanking here, and there’s pockets of buying. My AAUK and TSM buys from last friday are holding up pretty well. With the former, the news is the obvious reason, but with the latter, the china/tech play is still on…
Phil,
But let me complement your trade. I think you’ll get your price soon!
These little rockets are nice. Resistance of underlying at the 36MA. Could be enough ommph to bust through sending the inverse lower for a test of its 36MA support.
well am down oh well
marty…thanks….think of bonds as an alternative to stock shorts…plus you get interest while u wait ……lol…also how high do u think rates can go before the weak economy crumbles????…7% mortgages ..8%??
Charlie,
I bought the put again and am down 5.50 nooooo lol i can’t even sell today and am leaving in a few hrs crappp
tick really wants to go higher!
marty…the only reason i dont like tlt is that u r stuck with them forever..there is no maturity date…at least with the actual treasury bond u know the date your pain will end if u r wrong…lol
Stringm,
Here comes more of those spikes. SKF had one. I’m going to try your suggestion to get rid of them.
is the correction over?????http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SkDY5mcoyeI/AAAAAAAABAk/7Yj3_Hln3Yw/s1600-h/EWU622.png
If that was the bounce.. that is pretty sad.
Phil,
6% in 18 months is baked in, at this point, no? I think you’re the right range, but never underestimate the FED, even when they’re out of bullets… I think they will tolerate 6%-7%. Long term, those are not such high rates.
Ok, off to the doctor… GL to all!
Charlie,
That bounce has been held back by the SPY 15min 36MA resistance… so far.
marty,
Don’t buy your Dr. a new BMW.
Spy is not trying to penetrate th e15min 36MA. Shorts are running for “cover”.
very oversold http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/Sj__JsbeIwI/AAAAAAAADkk/IAkdPAp60fY/s1600-h/STEM.MR%5B2%5D.png
george….i prefer ferrari anyway
I meant, Spy is “now” trying to penetrate the 15min 36MA.
down big today bad move on SPY puts… lol
I will be out of here by 3pm guys and i will see you every friday 9-10am Hopefully
Adios!
K,
Have a nice trip.
George,
Checkout…tradetobefree.com
Paula
phil,
Doctors deserve all they get IMHO. That’s a lot of responsibility. And we sure want the best care we can get.
You can buy A ferrari with digital exams! I’m in the wrong business.
K, have fun and take care – I do appreciate your spear heading with options named for insects and such it keeps me on my toes and inspecting new things!
You’ll be fine K.. just questioning if there will be even a tiny bounce in this market right now. If it is going to do anything.. it has to do it now.
haha yeah the butterfly is dead
paula,
I signed up. 2 free weeks without giving blood. No brainer.
Thanks
HOLY MACRO eur/usd up almost 2% today… heeeeeyyy i need to convert euros crash damn it!!!
ok that chart i showed you earlier today is going to get K blasted
aur/usd 5 min wants to crash and usd/jpy wants to head higher
tick is tocking down so YAY PUTS all the way. no need for animal options
SPY is about to make a 9/36/15 cross, but the move is looking weakish.. Thoughts anyone?
SDS trying to overcome quad tops on the 1min while SPY is testing 5min 36MA after failing the first time to close above its 15min 36MA.
Could be choppy as this is being resolved and may show direction for next hour.
Charlie,
I watch the 30min stochastic if the 15min MAs crosse. By definition, the stochastic should be positive, but it often turns down on the 30min if it isn’t going to cross.
K,
How many hours does it take to get to the Mother Land?
probably 11 or so..
to rome is 8 then switch there
Thanks for the tip George
this is funny.. all three indexes are up 3 pts each.. (DOW, Nasdaq and SPX)
SSO has made 3 good moves today where the 1 and 5min stochastic bottomed below 20 and went up together. BBT has made 2, SKF 2, ICE 1 for almost $3, SDS a couple, QLD and QID a couple also. Together with the MACD, that’s a winning combination.
if you missed SPY puts this is the time in my opinion. i will be out any minute now
you mean you will be out of your puts or are you getting into more K?
Ha, that 15min is teasing everyone. They are on to us.
SPY 15min has a narrowing wedge above and below that 9/36/15 cross. Will see which way it breaks and follow the leader.
The 5min magnifies that wedge and I’d go with it.
Really is a stale mate here. Hope it busts out today and not after hours.
yeah.. I’m waiting for a bust out before I do anything. Right now.. I am in a little bit of SRS and the rest in cash George. It needs to get out of this wedge and he wedge is narrowing.
Anyone adding to SMN today? It is starting to tempt me.
There’s the pop out of the wedge..Some good volume behind it too.
Backtest of the upper line of the wedge?
BBT popped, too.
I don’t trust it holding at this late time of the day. The SDS 15min MACD has been going down all day. When it reaches its MACD zero line, it could pop up.
I’m going to hold off any positions till tomorrow. Maybe with the FOMC minutes due out, this market will make up it’s mind.
Someone sure luvs the financials. Pure technical play I would think. That’s okay, the more it “wiggles” the more I “giggles”.
passed by TSA and they liked dad’s new balance shoes so they ran a test on them
i will turn my phone off and finish the book i sent you george. ya’ll take care of yourself
Charlie,
I forgot about that… the Fed Speak. That’s the reason for the stalemate.
K,
DId you take your wife with you?
George,
No, no BMW for the doc–just a cup of coffee, thankfully… but thanks for the thought…
Wow, glad I didn’t miss anything today. The major action from the FED meeting will be tomorrow, no? The dollar weakness seems clearly related, and if the fed is staying the course with QE and bond buying, the dollar will tank, it seems… On the other hand, if the ECB thinks they’re going to be able to raise rates soon, they’re smoking some refined stuff.
George, no I will look for another wife over there… the ticket guy forgot to give me my ticket rome to mommaland. I guess my destiny was to find an italian wife. went through TSA twice. how fun… LOl
1hr left