The SPX closed at 919.14 at the end of May. So, it is up a whole 8 points for the month of June. And that’s all it will take to put June in the red today. Will the rally make it four months in a row, or will the streak die at three? The Q’s closed Monday poised to make a 9/36/15 cross-under, so I’m betting that the streak dies.
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Wave behavior/characteristics are very reminiscent of the October 2007 action.
Also, the Institutional Investor index has a 9/36/d cross-under. The 36 has flattened out, and may be ready to turn down.
Low volume weeks (holiday weeks) have been prime territory for manipulation upward, so hard to know how we go this week. Minimum criteria for the upswing the past few days have been met, so I don’t mind a bit if we fall from here.
so I’m betting that the streak dies.
Wow! Let’s see how this plays out. Matt, you are getting very bold.
priceless:
http://twitpic.com/8ud8k
Charlie,
One thing omitted from those 100 euro transactions – it was taxed each time.
There was no debt to begin with. US operates much worse. US has real debt.
Dressguard.. you are right in that in the story above, the real debt was 0, but in the US, the tourist in the story borrowed that 100 euros from China.
A friend of mine does a small amount of trading. He bought a penny stock that tripled. I counseled him, along with his wife, to set a % gain target and take profit at that target (having been burned myself). However, he refused and the stock fell dramatically, though he still has a profit it’s a fraction of what it was. Needless to say I won’t bring it back up but his wife is all over him now that the bedroom suite she had seen as nearly free will actually come out of their budget.
I felt like sharing.
Mitch,
Good point. Get it while you can. The ol’ greed will take it back. Just like in Vegas.
Boom.. 10 am reversal?
Dow slightly down now, hurrah, figures, i was too afraid to add more DXD quite yet…
Red shoots. “The SPY is falling, the SPY is falling.” My rotatin’ core SKF is very happy. Same with S(K)F sympathy shares.
Let’s see if the moves down are faster than the moves up.
Reaching support on the underlying.
Cons. Conf. up spikes $ . . . . briefly.
I have no idea why the market is reacting so badly to better than expected economic data!
Get ready for oil to go up as the U.S. leaves Iraq and turns control over to the Taliban.
It would be nice to see a good counter move soon.
I want crash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! just like those damn aircrafts that can’t stop crashing… oh HELLOO
George:
Taliban? Control was handed over to a consortium of shia and sunni (Iranians and Iraqis). The Taliban are mostly in Afghanistan and control is being handed over there to the former warlords that have a touch of tact dealing with the Taliban.
bought a VIX 30 july call.. .VIXGF
Sorry, CNBC reporting Consumer Confidence is down.
Matt, the market is listening to you.
K,
How’s the weather over there?
Nice bang pattern in the DAX:
http://www1.deutsche-boerse.com/parkett/DAX_chart_realtime.jpg
Pouring!!!
Mitch,
That’s true to a point.
The Taliban are already in Iraq. They’ve helped plan bombings and other attacks. Their influence is fairly strong. They need a home and that is the most likely place once the allies leave.
They like the Americans being over there because it fulfills their “cause” to easily inflict casualties on the US.
Anything can happen once the allies leave Iraq, especially if their new government is weak.
Just speculation on my part.
K,
That’s right… monsoon season there right now, correct? Are you near the sea?
Can someone tell me how the IWM can almost be green.Thought this was the weakest indices
Nevermind they just went from -.12 to -.36 in 2 minutes
i’m 850 meters above sea level
surrounded by mountains. bordering Greece. not liking how my stomach acts to REAL food!!! nothing with hormones!! oh man i feel more energetic yet my stomach and ribs hurt.
the whole city is 2 miles in diameter. I must have walked it 3 times a day without realizing it so far.
As for the teenagers here GOD DAMN.. the luxury american D&G clothes and whatever not everybody has,, coffee shops are filled with people wasting the days away. No jobs and yet they relax. Banks offering 6% interest in euro and 10% in albanian currency.. meanwhile this is all over here… LOL http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/world/europe/29iht-albania.html?ref=europe
(sorry for the off topic Matt)
scotty:
It closed May @50.17. It appears to be determined to hold a monthly gain doesn’t?
K,
Interesting. You’re next to Greese – I’ve been there. I liked it. Best lamb shish kabob on pita bread I’ve ever had.
Maybe it’s the grease that’s upsetting your stomach. Or the water… I take Pepto pills when I’m in any foreign country (including South Carolina – lol). Those help with the digestion of foreign stuff.
I hate to hear about the high unemployment. That is a sign of the times. Those interest rates are great. I may come over there.
Geeze, what’s up with SRS? Its had a long trek down. It will be juicy when it hits bottom.
SPY is resting on its 60min 36MA support. It could do a wheelie here and bounce up for a bit on the lower time frames.
George, what have they said about high interest rates of banks in the US? haha too big to fail anyone? I smell fishies here too. I wish my own country had a stock market and i could be one of those people shorting it big. (as much as i’d rather help it) The per capita GDP was estimated at $4,500. USA per capita GDP of $48,000. I am rich over here and you could be King George if the Democrats fail to get elected. (I went to vote but my passport had expired 3 years prior and I missed out hehe)
VIX rules!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
K:
The article writes 3,500 p.cap GDP. I wish the best for Albanian people.
K,
If they had high-speed Internet, I’d come over and retire there. How’s the taxes? (You knew I was going to ask that one!)
Thank goodness they get to vote.
I wouldn’t recommend it much George but here it goes
http://www.albic.net/Eng/a3business/taxguidebyalbicidra4.php
http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/AL_Albania%20Highlights_001022009.pdf
(Again Sorry Matt)
FDA Panel To Recommend Limiting Tylenol Max Dose To 650mg/Day -CNBC
Night (it’s 6pm here but i want to enjoy the fresh air)
George:
I’ve noticed TBT/TLT have been back and forth today. Take a look at FXP (short china) it’s bound to fall if the dollar stays up at all today.
The long play would be FXI. I don’t feel real strongly about it but I’m telling you because you’re skilled enough to catch it and get out.
Mitch,
Thanks for the heads-up. I’m on it!
SPY has accomplished a small bunce off the 36MA 60min, but that stochastic needs to turn up to continue as a longer move.
GS consolidated and now dropping.
george….look at a daily dow with 18 dsma ….phil Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 11:29 am
mitch …bought ddm@ 28.60 on dip this am …like moo target is 18dsma then down….getting ready to sell now ……..
phil, yeah, I see that. Nice. I need to add that MA to my screen.
SPY 60min 36MA is support for the 60min time frame. Still hasn’t given a buy on the 60min, but has allowed a few scalps.
I got inverse this AM. Added with each time frame as it gave a buy signal, then sell as indicated by them. Double your pleasure, double your fun.
Some of these moves are molasses. It took BBT 5 minutes just to go 1 minute.
The next stop for SPY is to have all its stochastics on say, 3 time frames, bottom out to see if they will cascade up together.
They are almost at that point now – 1,5,15min MAs. Needs more work right now, but if the 1min can cycle a few times, they might catch a bid.
“they might catch a bid…”, should say, they might align for a move up.
Ha, I thought I had big bucks on BBT, but the screen scales price according to volatility. BIG move on the chart added up to .10c.
Scalps-Я-Us
Mitch,
I’ve been using TLT/TBT as a general indicator here. I feel like they will tell us which way the market will turn, or whether it will just stay in the range for a number of weeks, which is entirely possible to my mind. It is vacation time in New York. With the short week, everyone has cut out of town and there’s a relaxed, slow feel to the city yesterday and today.
It’s time to think about sailing.
My last 25% in BBT is helping it go to the moon. Solid propellent, that’s the secret.
Those 3 stochastic alignments has paid off okay. Question is, how high will SPY go before it reverses.
This is the counter I was looking for. Nice doin’ business with it. Now to back up the truck with inverse when this move flips.
Marty:
Sailing sounds maaaarvelous!
Heck, wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with green shoots. That would match my green slacks.
phil:
I know when someone is in the zone! I’ve thought you were making good calls for a couple of weeks now. Sailing time?
George:
Tell me you’ve been scalping FXI!
SPY getting close to 15min 36MA resistance.
Mitch,
It’s been beautiful! Thanks to you.
Big spike in FXI to the downside. Clear the deck!
Haha, I think BBT movement is related to the TARP payback. Whatever… has been good to me. Tks Fed.
Sorry George – that was me I sent in a million share “market order” got scalped – jus kiddin’
Wow, SPY almost made it through the 15min 36MA. Pierced it, but not confirmed yet. Nice. Anything can happen from here.
Matt the Magician!
(Just missing one measly point. Great call. Kudos to Matt!!!)
Ha,
Yeah, Mattgic… WTG!
K:
I read those tax advisories. I didn’t think the burden that onerous. The odd part is that the level is near U.S. rates! Looking at it that way your momma land’s taxes ought to be lower but as they are they are still not confiscatory.
Mitch,
Were you trading against me or with me? lol
George:
Ha! No way. I wouldn’t do that. There were some deep pockets though that with a couple of orders traded near a million shares of FXI – not a cheap move.
To confiscate by the act of confiscation of a confiscator is confiscatory. If one has been confiscated, it is to seize (private property) for the public treasury. I’m sorry, to be politically correct, the word should be appropriated. Wonder where eminent domain falls into that meaning?
just sayin’
Million shares? Those are deep pockets. Knowing which way they are going would be beneficial.
George:
>>>I’m sorry, to be politically correct, the word should be appropriated . . .
You bite back! That was for me taking you seriously about the Taliban in Iraq wasn’t it?! You really do not want to defend that ground do you?
Was out for most of the day.. wife got into a car accident and needed me to come assist her.
Wanted to say to Matt.. Great call!!
Bought more SPY PUTs this morning when SPX hit 930. Took partial profits at 915 on the SPX and still holding a SPY 90 – 92 Put spread. In the green for the SPY 92′s and in the red for the 90′s.. but hopefully that changes soon if the H-S pattern we are seeing on the 15 min chart plays out. We are in the process of forming the right shoulder now with a peak of 923 ish.. so the anticipated move would be to 20 pts or so to the downside.
Matt, great call on the S&P today!
Thanks everybody.