Tuesday’s Trading
Ironically, Hurricane Gustav has caused the price of oil to crash. Who saw that coming? Stock futures have retraced almost all of Friday’s losses as of 8am.
Watch the comments section for updates throughout the day.
Ironically, Hurricane Gustav has caused the price of oil to crash. Who saw that coming? Stock futures have retraced almost all of Friday’s losses as of 8am.
Watch the comments section for updates throughout the day.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
ISM manufacturing at 10am. Construction spending too.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
Without Gustav, would we the US economy be better off or worse? I don’t know how oil can plummet, since it never really spiked on Gustav.
Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how far thinga go given the levels we are at.
Matt,
Are you maintaining your 80% short position today?
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 am
My SKF continues to hurt. The quote on it is now around $111. ouch!
I’m wondering what I’ll do about my short position as well. Continued talk of a Korean takeover of LEH might be sparking the rally in financials.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
I see two scenarios: we trade up about 100-150 pts prior to ISM and if ISM is good we rally 250; if it is bad the dow is up 50 pts max. i will prob go short if the ism number is good, as we have a bad employment report this wknd. possible headwinds are the Lehman/KDP news and any positive news with the financials. it concerns me to see the resilient strength in the financials lately. we could be missing something here…..
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:01 am
what will i do to SKF? kick it’s ass?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
The 12m forward price return forecast for the SPX :
http://tinyurl.com/SPX-FORECAST
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
Oil has a long way to fall. Financials will soon report more losses. That means more fire sales of assets. A vicious circle.
There is only so long ISM can stay above 50. Reality will catch up.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:14 am
So we are going to visit 1320ish… The negative drivers behind the freefall in oil prices (demand and not supply side being the driver) or the credit crunch take longer to play out in the economy. So the market can rally a bit (like on great GDP numbers) until the next earning reports or other real data come in…
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:30 am
Yikes! SKF now @ 110 and change. Should I add more?
Hmm…
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Charlie,
XLF has broken out, SKF is looking like a sick dog, SKF is a real contrarian play to the financials reversing to the updside. Buy more, this is probably the perfect time, but only if you have balls the size of the King of Bayon.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:48 am
Wow another 20 points on the naz and we can roll those calls back into puts,maybe right before the release of the ism #s
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
Hey Randall,
thanks for the comments. What I do know is that $22.50 has been strong resistance and 1320 is a potential top for the S&P. The fact that there is strong buying this first 20 mins after a Labor Day weekend just seems very suspect. Not sure if this is big money faking everyone out for the next downturn. We are still in a bear and doubt everything is rosy just because everyone had 3 days off and a hurricane didn’t hit.
Nothing has changed IMO.. so maybe I won’t add more, but I will hold what I have for now. Hopefully I don’t lose my pants.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:04 am
U.S. Aug. ISM new orders 48.3% vs 45.0% in July
U.S. Aug. ISM manufacturing index 49.9% vs 50% in July
per marketwatch.
Below 50% = contraction.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:06 am
Another observation was that LEH was up huge today.. but now only up only about 3%. I guess what is news to us is OLD news to institutions.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
You guys play at a much different timeframe than mine but this looks like a truly Keynsian moment…you know markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent ? Great Bberg story this a.m. on the new analyst sport being watching writeoffs and not deal flow. And the Frannie catastrophe in waiting is still the other shoe to drop. But fundamentals and structural breakdowns aside this looks,judging from a daily chart, like a great time to be out of financial short bets IMHO. Wait until it runs up…and anticipate massive kookaid consumption with a Frannie salvage move. Then move ???
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 am
Even with all the hoopla, SPY volume in the first half hour this morning was lower than Friday’s first hour. OTOH, QQQQ, IWM, and XLF all have improved volume today.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:16 am
This rally has no legs
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:19 am
Over the weekend, I read a story that said the Koreans wanted “management control” in the Lehman deal. So, they want Dick Fuld out, but Fuld doesn’t want to go. So, it looks like that’s why the deal is taking so long.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
After filling the gap-down from Friday morning, the Q’s have flopped right over.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
Matt,
I also noticed a trend lower on SPX & XLF. Still hanging onto my shares of SKF. Volume didn’t seem overly impressive this morning and I don’t think this drop in oil is justified. It might come back and hurt us. From the looks of things.. most of the news this morning was painting a very good picture. I presume your still in your 80% short position or have you now increased it
1) Gustav is a no show
2) Lehman take over by Koreans
3) ISM was supposed to be good (above 50)
4) McCain will lose now that his running mate is going to be a grandma
5) 3 day labor day weekend has people still recovering from hangover and with kids back to school.. wow I’m going to go out and buy some stock today.
6) put your positive reason here to buy stocks…
I sort of see all of that as being contrary to what is really going on. So anyways.. we’ll see what happens for the rest of the day.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
Buying SKF doesn’t take balls, just common sense. The banks are f’d, all of the morons on Wall Street think they’re crazy cheap. You just have to ride out the bozos who have been bailed out by the Fed for the past 30 years. This problem is too big to bail.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
You got her Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:35 am
Oil has been rallying back on strong volume since 9:15am.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
My Gawd do we have to listen to Kudlow all frickin day .
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
time to buy DIG? hehe.
i’d never touch it
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
I regret not adding more SKF this morning. Looks like the big flush up this morning was to trap bulls.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
Danny’s right. I’m sitting on SKF and SDS, even if I have a big drawdown.
Looks like the morning rush is over. How this day ends will tell a lot about how long this rally lasts.
On McCain-Palin: I don’t think the teen pregnancy will hurt so much since the daughter is engaged to the father. I think what will hurt more is the fact that even during her well-publicized speech, McCain couldn’t control himself enough to avoid constantly staring at her butt and fiddling with his wedding ring, especially since his spin is that he is such an upstanding guy.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
If the markt cannot hold decent gains today the rest of the week/month will be hellish,today was nothing more than a sympathy rally
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:51 am
Paul,
that last comment was so funny. McCain.. the looker..
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:30 am
Matt.. if today’s gains can be held, what you do anticipate will happen for the rest of the month? A retest of 1320 on the SPX?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 am
lol kudlow says now its ok for a 17 yr old girl to be pregnant “because she is engaged”
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:37 am
lol.. I know who’s butt his head is up..
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
If i didn’t puke enuff about his bullish ranting now for sure you know how much a fraud this person is “God bless America” Turn around tuesaday its early but what do you think?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
ooquess that wouldbe Wensday
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
nice bear flag on xlf
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am
sorry have a new lap top that i can’t stand
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
this could be like mid-April. Black XLF candle then, black XLF candle today. One more retracement to the trendline then a push to the top before the rally end.
Maybe, of course.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:52 am
Hurricanes are unpredictable. Gustav could have been quite devastating, or it could have limited damages, as it looks like it has done (as far as oil infrastructure is concerned). Lots of uncertainty over the weekend
So why is VIX up on a big rally day?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
lol.. Pooch.. I understand what you mean. I got a new keyboard recently that had a few buttons misplaced from where I was used to .. I would say I must have been 30% less effective..
BTW.. Zen.. I think you’re right. This bounce on XLF is on very light volume compared to the selling that took place in the first 1/2 hr of the day.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 am
Charlie lol took me 15 minutes to get a trade in this morning
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
You guys Boone Pickens on CNBC next predicting 150 oil by end of year
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I am a firm believer that the financials will only get worse. However, the current accounting and tax regs allow them to “hide” or at lease manipulate their current and future losses so that the next shoe can fall much later on than one would expect.
Take Fanny and Freddie. It’s not a question of if, but when they get bailed, and so the market continues up when the world knows the mortgage and housing situation is only getting worse.
Therefor class :), I see 1320-1350 since the first over 1300 a while back had everyone set up for a run up. Now, the markets have had a chance to make some money on the chasers and now will run it up on a head fake, and down we go.
Coincidentally, the target I have for the XLF looks to be at it’s swing high of around $23 when the SPX hits 1320.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Matt, did you become a Hanna victim? I think you should consider buying an electricity generator
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Ok we got the hurricane bounce here …does anyone know of anyway this. market will bounce this week we have auto sales tomorrow,and the jobs claims on Thur-Fri ….What would propel this market
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Fibio tracing brought SKF to 61.85 retracement
http://i37.tinypic.com/ilzomo.jpg
it means nothing more than day trading which am not but i just have fun looking at patterns.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
IWM just turned red. Wow! This market is the wild, wild, west.
I haven’t made any trades today, so I am still short.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:32 pm
dressguard,
We are getting wind and rain from Hanna right now. It doesn’t look too serious at the moment.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Pooch,
What was his reasoning? Demand is dropping. Supply is relatively steady. Even with another hurricane, $150 is pushing it. Don’y forget, he is heavily invested in alternative energy (nat gas, wind).
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Matt,
It makes sense that IWM would go down first. It is close to its Jun 5 and Aug 15 double top. If IWM topped and then went down, it would be hard for the other indexes to rally.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Matt, hope you are okay with the hurricane.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p74210949689&a=150144425
That’s my new and improved VIX chart if y’all can see it. Maybe a new uptrend.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
And XLF is still holding on. WTF
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Hey, who pushed me off the cliff? This is my up day!
Yours, S&P
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Sorry Paul the damn doorbell was ringing then the phone,all i got was the last 2 minutes were he said we had a surplus of natrual gas.Maybe Crash could help me out
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Pickens and oil
I just heard the Pickens interview. Nothing new there. He thought oil would fall today, but was surprised by the magnitude. Also, he thinks OPEC will reduce supply to defend $100 oil. I hadn’t though about that before. OPEC has to be careful here. If oil is too high, alternative energy R&D goes up. This is why even they hate $150 oil: they are amart enough to look at tomorrow, not just today.
Also, he said, “the battery won’t power the truck,” which isn’t quite true. Mining trucks (the giant ones) have been using electric motors for years. The issue is that batteries are heavy, which is the same thing holding back their usage in cars.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
VIX is now up 4%, near a 2-week high. If the markets end up down today… look out below!
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
wow NAZ is down 37 points from the open,anyone here care to hear Art Cashins blog on Friday
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
K,
For daytrading, I would normally draw the fibs between the previous day’s low and the current session highs and vice versa (previous day’s high and the current session lows). Try this and let me know what you think. Works for the most part.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Paul will batteries power semis for the long hall 850 1000 miles a clip???
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Whoa Topper!
Thanks for the Advice. Like I stated I’m just playing around. Heck I’m not legal to drink yet so I got a lifetime to get patterns into my head and make that nice profit
Thanks Again, Everyday Learning Something New.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:24 pm
The market is upset because oil is down only $6 instead of $8. Silly market…
…or is the market finally starting to realize that falling oil isn’t really bullish? Will the bulls panic when they realize that falling oil can’t save them?
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:31 pm
does anybody recommend an online broker for daytraders. i use fidelity and execution is terrible.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
matt, i agree. what the hell is the difference between oil being down $6 vs $8. the mkt seems to trade tick for tick with oil.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:43 pm
QID turning green now. Hello?!
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Anyone have any thoughts on the strength in financials today? XLF seems to be hanging on. IWM, SPX and Q’s are in bear flag patterns that might be looking to turn downwards now.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:47 pm
apple wants to rock stock hits rock bottom. hehe what is going on!!! 167.40 at one point.!
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Tony G, Interactive Brokers is performing for me
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Q’s just broke 46.. that was strong support… but the plunge continues.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
wow best 1 day for me in 5 years
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Pooch,
We are far from an full-electric semi. However, the mfgs have already built fully-functional diesel-electric hybrid prototypes semis (and most locomotives and many mining trucks are actually diesel-electric hybrids with diesel generators and electric motors). No one is even working on a natural gas semi, which is what Pickens is suggesting.
Charlie,
XLF started this mess. You can bet that the captain will go down with the ship, just give it time (I’m not a daytrader). BAC is leading the way up today, and BAC will lead the way down this week (dividend), although I still say JPM will lead XLF to a new low.
K,
While I saw the drop coming (see me comments from last week), I’m surprised at AAPL’s rate of descent. I have no idea where it will stop. I was planning on the July lows, but maybe it wants to go back to March.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:18 pm
i just could not resist this blow.
i got out at 173.50 but now this is a price too good to pass up for a quick buck i think.
got in at $166 put a buy order at $164.something in case i wanted to average down. let’s see where this takes us.
i could get out same day with some change without daytrader’s i tjink. and there it climbed a whole buck already back at 166.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Congratulations pooch. Nice work.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Wow..this drop has been brutal for all the people that were fooled by the “good” news this morning. Once again I’ll say.. I regret not adding more SKF this morning.
Look at the move it has made. XLF is barely positive.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
unbelievable move today. i bought a massive amount of DXD and SDS when the dow was around +212. just sold everything after such a nice move, however, my gut is that we don’t recover these gains and i plan to have a longer-term short in place by the end of the week. Nonfarm Friday!
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Pooch,
Did you short the morning strength? That’s a bold move. I was already well-invested from last week, so I didn’t want to risk anymore in case the rally extended a few more days.
Ironically, it loks like the tremendous oil drop turned out to be a Trojan horse for the bulls. Commodities and energy are getting hammered hard. Instead of sectors taking turns leading the market up, sectors are taking turns leading them down.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Tony G,
Beautiful!
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
I’ve taken profits on my SPY puts and my S&P futures short position. They were both September contracts, so this seems like a good time to exit. I’m still holding my SDS because the tape isn’t showing any sign of turning around yet, though I may take profits before the end of the day as the market is now short-term oversold.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
XLF just up by 1 penny now!! Can we take it down?!?!?!?
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
The oils pits are closed, but oil is still advancing in electronic trading.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Matt, are you looking at the TRIN or just gut feeling the market is oversold?
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Paul,I sold my puts 15 minutes before Fridays close then rolled those into into q calls.Those calls i sold righ tbefore the ism numbers came out .Now I am back into puts,i see nothing at all moving the puts this week but it is a day to day process
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
dressguard,
The TRIN isn’t terribly oversold yet, but it is only one factor. A slow stochastic on an hourly chart works pretty well for short-term oversold conditions. Normally, I would let my shorts run until I saw a reversal pattern develop on the SPY chart, but oil has been acting so wild that I want to take few profits now.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Anyone have a handle on volume for today?
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
XLF has picked up volume as it has fallen during the last three hours, so that’s bearish. OTOH, it has a lot of support above $21. It has a full hour left to crack, though it may not be the best bet in the world for today.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:55 pm
SPX below 1276 resistance. Next stop is resistance @ 1263 and then after that.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Paul I meant Calls
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
god damnit i will need to learn discipline. too good to pass up sometimes is. apple is hanging in 165-166 area.
SKF tho rebounded very nicely so am not at all that bad for today.
market up 200+ now down -50 AWESOME Bear Singal?
i got no opinion on the market other than let’s take the ride down to 10800 again.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:07 pm
SKF almost positive while being down more than 7% earlier today. Quite amazing.. Let’s hope it holds, though market might be due for a bounce soon.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Does anybody think the rally can continue?
1) Indexes near heavy resistance levels
2) Massive turnaround will make bulls shy of future rallys
3) Buy-the-markets-on-down-oil may finally be over
4) On technicals, look up “candlestick” and “gravestone”
Also, GS has made a number of upgrades on big names: home depot, lowes, BAC, maybe others. They seem to be a contrarian play as of late. The next leg down will probably end when Goldman’s analysts’ capitulate…
Pooch,
Good job on the rotation. Same to Tony G. and others that shorted the strength.
I’ve found that my best decisions come when I look out 2-8 weeks. I must admit that I did not see the reversal today coming at all, not that I’m complaining
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Zen - Thanks for the compliment the other day on the “bluntness” of my blog.
Also, looking at your vix chart, it may be starting a new uptrend. I did a little study which found that the best time to get short using the VIX is when it is above its 20d MA for 2:3 days.
link the the article
Matt, feel free to remove my comment if you feel it is link-whorish, it is not my intention.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Thanks Paul rest of the week could be tough
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Oh, I forgot to add:
5) VIX was up post-Gustav, even while DOW was up 200 pts (Since then VIX has steadily climbed and is now up 7.5%)
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
The tape is improving a bit, so maybe we are done plunging for the day.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I agree, the TICK settings I use show the market is being bid/shorts are covering
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
last week i was buying ndy oct 1700 puts on the way down, 16 or so, 14 or so, 12 or so…dumped them @ 15…i forgot i had an order in as well for 10 bucks for the put, got that filled this morning…that was a pleasant surprise when checking the results so far today…
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:46 pm
that is a nice post holiday present After
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
sold my DIA oct 110 puts just now @ 1.68 , and the ndy oct 1700 put @ 19.50…
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Good day today.
I had to leave out shortly after the market opened. I saw the gap down. Bot SDS and QID based upon 15 minute stochastic bottom and started moving up on 5 minute time frame. (The 15 minute is the all-around best time frame to detect market direction.)
Set a stop at the low of AM for both and went to the hospital to visit a relative.
Got back in time to sell right after the peak. Got some BBT and UYG for a small upside trade.
Wish I had bot SKF. Oh well.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
after,
What is “ndy”? I don’t see that symbol in Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, or my three different trading programs.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
SPY’s volume today exceeded that of each of the last several rally days. So, that’s a pretty good sign that we are still in a bear market.
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Hmm,
“SPY’s volume today exceeded that of each of the last several rally days. So, that’s a pretty good sign that we are still in a bear market.”
I’ve never been a voume watcher. I see how you use it though. Interesting.
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
George,
Yes, many traders look at volume as a way to authenticate a price move, or trend.
Thanks for the tips on the 15-minute/5-minute timeframes at the open. You made money today without even sweating over your computer! Nice!
Have you ever traded futures? They say that if you are good at trading stocks, you will be good at futures too.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Matt;
I’ve never traded futures. My broker (USAA) doesn’t have futures trading to my knowledge.
I have been entertaining the idea of FOREX though. I had a practice account a couple of years ago and did very well. I need to look into that again.
I don’t do options either. That’s another area I need to learn more about. My broker will allow me to buy calls and puts and covered calls. I’ve been studying them via the Internet.
My main objective is to find out how to put almost all my funds to work all of the time instead of simply using some to day-trade. I just think of the missed opportunity of not using all of my funds. I don’t want to do it by increasing the amount of my trades, that would violate my current risk management. And I can’t trade too many stocks at once until I get my trading workstation expanded (more monitors, etc.). I just added a new computer and additional monitor the last 6 months. That has helped.
Years ago, when my funds were in a 401K, I used to go all or nothing with the swing trades. I doubled my funds in about two years (there were some days I LOST $10,000!). Now that I’m in an IRA I’m more conservative. Although I shouldn’t be.
So, I figure I need to be able to analyze a “bigger picture” in order to use the bulk of my funds. Once I do that, I’ll be well on my way to being more of a trader-investor.
Thanks
September 2nd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
George,
That sounds like a good plan.
The reason why I mentioned futures is that they are much more leveraged than the double ETF’s that you are doing so well with. Imagine that instead of just double ETF’s, you also had a 5-fold or 10-fold ETF.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Matt, this was the trade i made and it is recorded this way:
NDY - OCT 1,700.00 P
what i do is key in NDX in the quote section and then select options.
a range of puts and calls come up - probably it would make more sense to refer to it as an NDX put…
quite the interesting trading day…i’m still holding an allo of 9 % to QID and a smidge of SKF…
gold stocks are cheaper, if anyone wants ‘em -g-
September 2nd, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Lehman taking a hit after hours as one of their internal hedge funds, Ospraie, is exploding. Looks like those silly Koreans dodged a bullet. Maybe they should rethink whether or not they really want to buy an exploding ibank.
September 2nd, 2008 at 5:51 pm
after,
OK, I see what you mean. My brokers probably have the same options under a different symbol.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Matt,
Tomorrow, it looks like Ambac (up 10%) vs. Lehman (down 5%) for XLF.
Live from Cramer: the morning rally was the real deal, the drop was the head fake. His reasoning is because we aren’t in a recession. Housing (hgx) and banking (bkx) were up today, which is the real story. Has anybody else ever read that the morning action is more significant than the closing action? If housing and banks go down and everything else (including the indexes) go up tomorrow, that would be sweet.
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Paul,
Like Cramer said at the end of his show, it was probably Ospraie contributing to the selling today. But Cramer thinks Ospraie caused all the selling, which is dumb because the market peaked right at 10am after the ISM number was released.
Now we have wonder if Ospraie is done blowing up. If anybody knows what their holdings were, please post. We might also be able to guess what Ospraie might continue selling tomorrow based on what were the big percentage losers today. Guesses anybody?
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Matt,
This is a link to Ospraie’s holdings as of 6/30.
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate-Institution-Portfolio.php?DV=yes&institutionid=5295
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Topper Harley,
Thanks! I don’t have time to analyze the list tonight, but I’m sure some of the participants of this blog will.
I did notice that they were holding Arch Coal (ACI) which did indeed get slaughtered today, down 14%. I guess if you want to play these you would have to figure it of Ospraie was done barfing. If not, then you could short. If so, maybe play them for an oversold bounce.
Matt
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:34 pm
The data does not seem to back Cramer’s theory.
According to the link Topper Harley provided (thanks), Ospraie owned 700,000 shares of ACI, 0.486% of outstanding shares. It traded 13,680,000 today.
Another example: they own 3,000,000 shares (9.8% of outstanding shares) of Len.B shares. It traded 100,000 shares and was up today.
It was simply a case of huge drop in oil -> huge drop in commodities. Besides, they would have started liquidating before today.