Can Meridith Whitney move the market, or what? Outside of the feds, nobody has that kind of power. And how jealous is Cramer? Instead of criticizing Whitney, he should be thanking her for boosting his stupid GS position.
On his show Monday night, Cramer said that he had been “buying Goldman for years and been right for years.” Is buying GS at $250 in 2007 really something to brag about? Even worse, Cramer urged lecture halls filled with college students to buy “just one share” of GS (and Sears), just so they could get in the game and learn how fabulous the stock market was. Any of those kids who followed his idiotic top-ticking advice must be cursing him now.
Cramer also went on the Howard Stern show on February 4th, 2008 and told comedian Artie Lange to buy Black & Decker because a housing recovery was underway. Another totally moronic call. Let’s hope Artie didn’t take the advice. BDK is still chopped in half.
Whitney is a serious analyst with market-moving power. Cramer is just a bulltard who does a clown show on CNBC every night. No wonder he is jealous of Whitney.
Asia and Europe followed her as well
I’m looking to play the 7/2/09 GAP. I have a L.O. to short SPY at 90.28, with a stop at 91.77. If we clear $93.23 then Phil may be right about new highs. GLTA.
LMAO! well said.
I was able to cash out before faz took a nosedive and all the other short positions I had. still holding skf and a few worthless options
see you tomorrow in the US of A gang
Spot on.
It’s worth you while to actually listen to the vidclips of Whitney. She did especially like GS but for what I’ll call short-term technical operational factors. Mostly because there’s a lot of muni and fed debt issuance and they’re big players. Her comments on the other banks are entirely similar. She then went on to say a) that this was really a bearish call when you thought it thru, b) the banks were still badly exposed to the “other” credit problems, e.g. consumer debt, credit cards, business loans, etc. and that as a result d) they’d have to get more capital in the future to offset those losses. As she characterized it this was a trading call not an investment call.
That of course is not how it was interpreted, presented or acted on;hence the surprise rally.
It was kinda fun and amusing to hear echoing and adding competent substance to my arm-waving on the structural and cyclic problems finance was facing:http://tinyurl.com/n6yn4o entitled “Beyond the CRE Bombshell: Real Stress Testing for Finance” which pounds away some more at these problems for the long-run.
I had to look up “bulltard”. Urban dictionary says “an idiot who thinks that stock markets always rise.”
K,
Have a good trip back to the States. It will be sad leaving mamaland, they will miss you.
dax hit dax4800 target during the spike to 904 /es – now the bears must show how much punch they’ve got
Check and double-check. I accidently put in SSD instead of SSO into my chart. It is a legit symbol and was messing with my mind until I discovered my error.
Seems as if you can put in almost any 1-4 characters and there’s a high probability of getting a legit stock.
Isn’t that the way the chimps trade?
phil,
Any updates this AM. Your being on the outside of the forest, for the most part, helps give you an impartial view of patterns, etc.
Very helpful.
George – now that we’re up have you tried fiddling with the periods on the SlowSto yet ? Thought it was a pretty nifty stumble upon but interested in your verdict since you’re the Scalpmaster
How about a 1-3-2 Put Butterfly on Goldman?
No surprise with earnings, stock moving down here today, hopefully it drags the market down with it.
dblwyo,
Yes, I’m testing using a 55,3 period and looks promising. It will stay below the 20 line and when it goes above it, that’s a high probability of a breakout. Also, it will go above 80 and stay there then break down after a run is over.
I may need to up it a bit to 65 and testing will prove that out.
Good news sending the market down. Say, what?
Recall that SKF daily gap that was filled yesterday? I bought at the close SKF, SDS.
May only be a scalp. We’ll see.
If you have an interest in what Rich has to say
about the market, google…elliott wave index trader…
and click on his site.
Shorted the market this morning via SPY AUG 89 PUTS. Got an awful fill though.. cause my broker sux…
SKF approaching 5min 36MA. May have to sell there depending upon what it does.
too bad Rich is not “the” Rich
Charlie,
Do you use limit orders? If you don’t, give
them a try. Place the order half-way between
the bid and ask…try the same when you
sell. This works well for us…may not work
for you.
Thanks for the tip Paula.. but what happened was that I placed an market order when the bid/ask were low, but the fill took so long that by the time I got it.. the price had already jumped up 10 cents.
Charlie,
No one can prove it. But brokers play games
with market orders. They can’t do that with
limit orders.
Paula,
I also use that method, you might consider 2/3 & 1/3 of bid/ask spread
to beat the crowd sitting at 50%
‘ve been watching the GS July 145 puts. I was waiting for now to see how putting that on would perform. Missed a nickel watchin’
Hank,
Good point. Right now 50% is working for
us….usually get a fill as I take my finger
off the mouse.
Still no clear signal.. out of my put options.. + 6.5% on the trade.
Charlie:
But July is so much fun!!
I’d peel out f the GS 145 puts now. BBT, wanna dance?
mitch…..just bought tlt @94.81……still looking for 98- 99
lol Mitch.. if I was able to watch the market like a hawk… I would certainly do that.. right now.. I am distracted with work so conceded to buy AUG options in case I blink and the market moves against me. So far.. pretty happy with my 1 trade of the day. Made money and took profits at the right time.
George – thanks. Fascinating. No “9″ multiples – looking forward to the feedback.
Good news ? Maybe or reality. Hence the blog link. In the last two weeks I’ve heard more reasonable folks deal with the very…y….y weak….k…k and jobless recovery in a recovery. Battapaglia on Newshour last night.
If anybody watches finnewsnets WATCH BNN. 98% of the commentators are straight-arrow and good questions from the anchors. It’s online.
phil:
Not before I go get some MOO. LOL.
SPY 15min still holding on to 50% FIB resistance after backing off and trying to bust through.
Good eye there George. I’m runnin’ with that pack for a bit to see if it grabs another 50% up and more for a cool 100%?
phil Says:
June 26th, 2009 at 9:55 am
mitch….moo daily….is below the declining 18dsma…..not interested unless you want me to short it as it gets near the falling ma
>>>>>mitch…..did you buy it then???…it is now 2 points lower
Double tops/bottoms coming up.
When is the H&S considered dead?
Mitch,
It looks like SKF has put in a bottom a few days back. May depend upon outcome today, but after filling that gap, looks promising.
phil:
It would have to be a treasury for me to have held that long! MOO had a decent spike several days after the day you referenced. TLT had a bigger one but you’d have tied up three times the $. Perhaps I’ll park some in TLT but I’m still driving. LOL. Also, I haven’t traded in weeks now. Took a draw down but have still tried to keep up and comment when I see a move I’d make.
Mitch,
I’m on the 30min chart for SPY. It could be going for its gap it had on July 2 ~$26.20.
SPY is fighting tops here so could pull back a bit.
I think the shorts are getting spooked that the H&S pattern hasn’t played out so they are covering. Whatever… Let’s keep this roller coaster going.
Thanks George. As it keeps heating up I would fade into MOO and eventually roll right over into to Phil’s snare!
Mitch,
I like the plan. Go with the flow.
I’m hoping SPY will go up to fill that gap at $92.10 (SSO-$26.20). That would give bigger goose-juice to the reversal if there is going to be one.
mitch….i am not trying to snare you
mitch…..if you are just in for a trade try not to buy below a declining 18dsma…you are fighting the trend…. if you have time ira epstein has good videos every day just watch the miday stock report….http://www.youtube.com/user/IraEpsteinFutures
I see a negative divergence on SPX 15min MACD. It’s sitting on that 50% FIB as support.
Oh no phil. TLT’s rise will do that & you’re already in it. That’s what I meant.
Ha, I was just thinking… bears are really bulls because they are always buying to cover and bulls are bears because they are always selling to cover.
Go figure…
K,
I bet you’d get a kick out of that statement above when you get back to your step-mamaland home.
mitch….are you saying you are long tbt?…you are really cryptic at times or i am just dense
BBT has had only a couple of runs so far. It don’t look too fresh right now. SPY fighting gravity.
dblwyo,
I’m using 63 on that stochastic now… multiple of 9 working good.
Wow, SPY using that 50% FIB support. So, up to the next level I suppose. Or a fakeout of a breakout.
I’m betting on a fakeout at this point as the market is looking a bit too overbought. SPY AUG 89 PUTs again..
Anyone in UYG? I did the 9/36/15 with it and I’m up about .20c.
I have a new way of trading the 9/36/15 that I’m testing. I use the 15min and 60min. If the 15min PRICE crosses the 36MA, I check the 60min which should be crossing its 9MA.
If the 60min is below its 36MA, I use the 15min MACD cross to exit. If the 60min is above its 36MA, I use the 60min MACD cross to exit.
This may change during testing, but this looks like the best process thus far.
Film at 11:00.
Charlie, I’m with you. That divergence is hanging out there on the 15min. That time frame is important, but maybe not enough to tell the whole story. However, I’m seeing that same divergence on the SPY 30min.
Could play out.
In my statement about 9/36/15, I always use PRICE, not the actual MA crosses. I should have been more clear on that.
Phil:
I’m completely out of the market. I have a token position in a trucker for sympathy as my cousin drives for it. I have a full time day job and I drew down to cover the tax bill from that enterprise.
Stringm,
That 9/36/15 should be easily programmed. Just eyeballing it, and with only a couple of trades under my belt, it has worked nicely.
The exits could vary, but guesswork or continual analysis is eliminated. I’ll see if I can get it down to a single screen where I combine those two time frames. Most likely no need because you can program that best I can remember.
I’m in SSO on that same setup waiting for the 60min to cross. I need to experiment with maybe a 30min cross which would close the trade sooner. I’m afraid that may not keep in the trade as long though. A 15min price cross of its 36MA may work, too which is part of my method.
Maybe some tweaking. Either way, it works and is straightforward.
mitch….thanks but ……..TMI
George
When you say MACD cross or you referring to Histogram below zero or Signal and MACD crossing?
String
DIE SPY DIE!!!
Stringm,
Yes, the 1 tick up on the histogram. Same as a cross I think.
I don’t trust a move going down. Lots of dip buying here – at least by me.
Doubles coming up.
Let’s see what the inverse has on these bottoms.
SPX has moved above that FIB 50%… so much for divergences. It ain’t over yet though. Dudes gonna run it up as far as possible to gather in the flock.
doesn’t look like anything is going to happen today.. maybe whipsaw wednesday will bring something more “bearish”.
I could get used to trading these longer time frames. I do sometimes but may have to make it mainstream.
I suspect the market made this move up in anticipation of after-hours earnings reports of some tech companies. The expectation must be good.
George, drinking coffee whilst the spx gained a point and then lost another I began wondering do you take the slopes into account? Eg is a stoch cross more “better” when the fast line on the histogram is at least flat?
George
You can play with the following code and see what you come up with. I backtested SSO back to Jan and BBT as well. More losers than winners, but profitable because avg loss was smaller than avg gain. You can play with these things till you are blue in the face. I didn’t take the time to look into each trade. See what you come up with.
String
Entry
Bar[Close,15,1] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,1] AND
Bar[Close,15,2] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,2] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,1] > 0 AND
Bar[Close,60] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,60]
EXIT
(Bar[Close,60] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,60] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,1] < MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,2] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,2] > MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,3]) OR
(Bar[Close,60] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,60] AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,60,1] < 0 AND
MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,60,2] > 0)
Yerk,
That doesn’t influence putting on a trade. There are times where those lines will move kind of sideways and they don’t last long.
It is always nice to have a good 45 degree with separation. It doesn’t always start out that way though but often ends up that way.
The “thing” that determines if a move is going to be good is mostly their crossing and moving as close together as possible.
Stringm,
I’ll give it a shot.
Thanks
Yerk:
Wassup!
George, thanks. I had the impression a stoch cross or a stoch move up will not work out that well as long the fast line on the MACD is still sloping against them. If this line is at least flat, there seems to be more momentum.
Did the futures just gap up more than today’s trading range?
Yerk,
I believe SPY is wanting to go up to that intraday gap.
Well, great. Madoff is sent to a N.C. prison. Now I have to house and feed him. He needs a room at GS where they have all of those new profits to take care of him.
Good to see Intel is doing well. With the low cost of PCs lately, I can see why people are taking advantage of that situation. We got our daughter a very nice HP laptop (or are they notebooks now?) for $350 at Best Buy.
Well… Intel actually had a 2nd quarter loss and revenue was down 1.5 billion compared to last year. However, they did profit and beat expectations.
http://tinyurl.com/klzj5m
George, correct. Figures include a big stupid fine from EU.
Intel did beat estimates by a mile and guidance was bullish.
Corporate market is dead. Numbers are driven by cheap laptops/notebooks, consumer and Asia.
Larry,
I read about the anti-trust fine. I don’t know much about the situation.
Rhetorical question: Will that money go to AMD and others offended, or into the coffers of the EU government? It wouldn’t take me long to answer that. (Computers just went up 4%.)
I should hire the European Union Commissioner for Competition to take a look at Time Warner.