Tuesday’s Trading – 7/27/2010

Rarefied Air
The McClellan Oscillator closed over 300 on Monday. That’s the highest level since the burst of buying off of the March 2009 low. But even back then, it triggered a pullback. The Mac OS was last over 300 on March 18, 2009, and the SPX dropped 26 points over the next two days. And when you combine that with the narrow-range NR7 days that SPY, QQQQ, and DIA printed on Monday, one would do well to be alert for an elevator ride down sometime soon. And another bearish indication is that TLT made a 9/36/15 cross-up just before the close.

35 thoughts on “Tuesday’s Trading – 7/27/2010

  1. Hi all,
    I made nice money on the way up (TNA!) and now I’m slowly adding shorts (SDS).
    Did anyone notice SPY turned down at the 200 SMA and closed just under it?
    It seemed like everyone was talking about the 200 in June before we moved $1 – $2 above it. Now… bear crickets and bulls on fire.

    The 200 SMA and the oversold condition are the fuel and compression. Anyone got a spark? 🙂
    If we blow through $113 I’m wrong and gone, but I think we get 9 handles before that.

  2. i heard there is an inverse of vxx,

    which is xxv

    happy trading all, i will again consider central fund cef-a.to depending on where it opens…

  3. Hank,

    Good job on TNA.

    The way SPY is “acting”, I think it wants to fill the upper gaps before it makes a significant move to the downside. Mind you, this is only a guess. If it does fill them, there will likely be several up and down cycles to get there, lasting several months.

    Here is SPY’s hourly chart of MOO/DOO. Note the unfilled gaps – especially the Martian. Also, the 50/200 made a golden cross. Note the trendlines I’ve drawn under current price: These need to be broken to the downside first, especially the lower trendline.


  4. Stringm,

    Good article. Yes, ETFs are not good “investments”. Yesterday, when SRS made a new all-time low, URE, its mirror image (ahem!) wasn’t anywhere near making an all-time high.

    They’re good for trading but not hedging long-term nor investing of any type.

  5. The 1X ETFs may be okay, I haven’t checked that. Still, I’d be cautious using them on a long-term basis.

  6. Well, since futes are UP, we’ll be looking for a gap and crap if Matt’s got the recipe right that we are ready for a pullback. Seems like everyone is looking for one, which always seems to mean a slow melt up and frustrate bulls (dip buyers) and bears (trapped) alike. GLTA.

  7. 2th

    we are in an obvious 3rd wave up..is it C or the next wave to new highs?? i dont know but it is going to go higher short term….any dip is a buy as long as spx 1100 is not overlapped….my target is 1150 if A=C …heavy long now SCHX and TBT(not a typo)….i am just holding and adding on dips till we get near 1150


    George says:
    July 26, 2010 at 4:46 pm

    There were dips galore. What u watchin’?


    i agree..yesterday i added more SCHX on morning dip to 1107 and pm dip @ 1108….raising SCHX stops this am on gap up…also bought more TBT yesterday….no stops on TBT


    MOO gap @ 115 is near wave equality…..101 to 110=A=9 points….106 plus 9 =115………A=C

  10. p,

    That’s matching up with the MOO gap. How about the Martian gap up around $120? That could be associated with a larger time frame EW.

  11. G

    we will have to see if it is more than that…ie is this part of a 3rd of 3rd wave to new highs…ie ABOVE SPY 122 and beyond….to mars and beyond…severe overbought and staying overbought is hallmark of 3 of 3 ….(ps you can probably tell i am a bull now…lol)

  12. SPY gapped over that 15min bearish rising wedge (I think that’s what it is). I’m guessing it could go either way, but if it continues trending up that’s another Market Myth Miff’ed. 🙂

  13. George,

    Thanks. I agree if we take out the 80 SMA then targets above look good. However, if we don’t the trend lines below will be NO supoort at all. Sure we will bounce here and there, it is never straight down. 😉

    Dress, that you think 9 handle is out of the question makes me smile. 😀
    It is not far below recent lows. The big drop will be next quarter or maybe the next when the parabolic trend in the lead time for semis dies a free fall death. 8 handles then 😉

  14. The 80 SMA is 112.37, so far good resistance. Still very tiny short until up or down is confirmed. GLTA

  15. picked up central fund cef.a to at the open, shoulda waited, -ng-

    overall mkt hinting at some red here and there, but gold and silver, ouch…

  16. g

    stopped out with 31c gain on schx…this overlap probably means 3 of 3 is over but more rally to come …target is still 1150 area

  17. p

    Always good to get stopped out with a profit. SPY is below its intraday trendline and bouncing off the 15min 9MA to retest it.

  18. Hi 2th,

    I’m thinking of some levels.

    I’ve whipped myself up into decent running shape in the climb up though. I’ve ran 2 miles 4 days a week pretty consistently.

    String, you getting with it?

  19. Good job Mitch. Any goal (half marathon, marathon, 5k) in the near future?

    I’ve got to decide pretty quickly if I want to train for the half again in January. I don’t mind 5 milers, but 10 mile training runs just aren’t any fun.

    Gap and crap came true today….

  20. Mitch

    I can’t tell a lie, no I have not. I ran that first half mile, and was way too sore the next day. It is approaching 100 here with high humidity just about every day. Those morning runs are hard for me to do. I plan on trying again in the fall.


  21. 2th,

    At the end of Aug there will be a 5K I’d like to run. I need a good watch for running. Do you recommend any in particular?

  22. String, sorry to hear that the run made you sore. And yes, being hot isn’t fun. I just got back from my standard 2.5 mile loop–yes, it is well over 100 here in PHX–and yes, I kept it under 20 minutes as usual. Just a good excuse to jump in the pool.

    Mitch, thanks for asking. I personally use my Ironman Flix that I use everyday for most runs. If I want to keep close track of my heartrate, I’ve had a couple different sets of HR monitor straps and watches in 20 years. Not overly thrilled with the lastest HR monitors, but they can be helpful during training and the watches are very bulky compared to a simple Ironman. At this point, I’m pretty good about knowing where my HR is and how hard I am working, but it is nice to have that tool in the toolbox when needed.

    The only other thing I’ll point out is your nutrition and eating before a race. 5k it isn’t too important, but longer runs it is. I eat low carb all the time with 2 carb load dinners a week. If the race is Saturday, eat a low-fat, complex carb loading meal on Thursday night. On Friday night, try to eat low-fat, simpler carbs that are easy to digest (fruits and milk come to mind) so you can eliminate them BEFORE you race. Nothing worse than feeling bloated while you try to run your fastest.

    Also, make sure you eat within 30 minutes after training. Preferably protein for muscle repair/growth, but some “good” carbs can be in there if you aren’t a low carb eater.

    Enough for now….good luck!

  23. Watching FTSE’s action tomorrow. FTSE, AORD, WLSH, JNK all with possible topping candles of various sorts today. Watch closely, tread lightly.

Comments are closed.