Back here, I said that the Fibonacci levels in the Box of Miracles should provide support if the market were to move down. And on Monday, the SPX’s intra-day low was 978.51, only 0.21 points away from the 50% level of 978.72 in the Box of Miracles. How’s that for accuracy? Also, on Friday, the SPX was practically glued all day to the 23.6% level from the Box of Miracles.
Matt Trivisonno's Blog
It's the Sovereignty Stupid!
-
-
Recent Posts
Pages
- About
- Call of Fame
- Dow Theory – Ignore It
- Food Stamps Charts
- Fractal Dimension Index
- Fractal Stock Grapher
- How to Post Code in Comments
- How to Post Links in Comments
- Immigration Charts
- Offshoring
- One Way Pockets
- Patterns
- Rank-O-Matic
- Read the Stock Market Classics
- SEO
- Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
- Top Websites by Alexa Rank
- TradeNagger
- Trading Strategies
- Why Chart Patterns Still Work
- Withholding Taxes Chart
Blogroll
Archives
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
Categories
Recent Comments
- admin on American Gulag
- binarylyfe on American Gulag
- admin on Jon Stewart Enters the Matrix
- admin on Jon Stewart Enters the Matrix
- Steve on Jon Stewart Enters the Matrix
-
Meta
-
Copyright © 2012 - Matt Trivisonno - All Rights Reserved
Entries (RSS)
and Comments (RSS).
971 next stop in futures? or will we hit 990 again? I do know that so far max pain for sept is $90 so. good luck.
http://beacheconomist.com/popdis3.gif
population age in us through 2050. oops looks like i’ma be trading at age of 80+
Every time you post a box of miracles chart I screen grab it and save it to my desktop. Hasn’t let me down yet.
Another wild day in Shanghai. The Bulls came out after lunch and the Composite ended up 1.4%.
The authorities are providing plenty of booze to the speculators, but I believe they are underestimating the enormous quantities needed to keep the party going.
The question then becomes: Is there enough booze left in the Occident?
We are close to max pain, so market forces must be pretty strong to move it away from here this week.
and Matt’s box levels act as attractors.
I do like the term ‘max pain’ but I’m glad I don’t trade options. I do think I’ll change my name by deed poll though, to Mr Maximilian Payne – lol
Pretty uneventful morning thus far, FTSE gapped up 30 pts at the open but has been trading in a narrow 20pt range (between pivot and R1) since.
K,
That age chart… not as badly populated with us oldies as I thought. Still, I need my social security, schoolboy. Keep payin’ those dues.
Mkts still half-dead but hopefully will get shaken up in less than 1/2 hr when there’s plenty of US economic news due out.
paula:
Where’s your sister? Hope your grandfather is fine.
WHO IS PEPPERED UP #90 style:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6F0XnJ8ksI
George,
I’ll head back to Europe and you can pay your own dues
At this point I would be concerned if I had 50% returns in my portfolio.
George:
I was able to neutralize some short gains on the “rumble” from yesterday – effectively locking them in to a degree.
but you don’t have 50% gains in your portfolio Mitch. yours are 110%
K:
No, I’m down 5% – probably close to destroying value according to alpha calculations. I’ll take a look.
K:
Although I have laid the wood on SPY for the week SPY is up 4.34% on the month which is relative to my period.
Mitch,
WTG on the rumble gains. Real tug-o-war here. May be a quick hit-n-run day if it turns out choppy.
Thanks George.
990+ today? sadly maybe
K:
I can take it. Here come the dip buyers.
The Tres Cruzars on SPY has worked out well so far since yesterday’s signal. Now price is bumping up against the SPY 15min 36MA.
This was a counter-Cruzar which means not much is expected in the way of movement, but one never knows.
BTW, I’ve been playing the MACD 90,40,16 setting and it has worked great. I’m using it on the 5min. Buy/sell at crosses. It works inverse to price. I’m still refining its usage and tweaking the settings.
The problem with Renko charts.
Renko ignores time. It is more like Point & Figure charts except it has candles. The problem using them is there could be a buy signal, then a minute later it turns into a continuation or sell signal. Now, once it gets past that first candle of a change of trend, it’s okay.
I’ve found that using stochastic and/or MACD as a verification eliminates false signals. Sure, the candles create the oscillators, but requiring an oscillator to turn greatly reduces or eliminates false signals.
StockCharts has the Renko charts. It may be possible to look at one without a subscription by looking at a daily chart. They are unique and useful once understood.
correction over ? buying partial positions long now for next up wave http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sonlu5UOkGI/AAAAAAAABas/yYyYa32m4oc/s1600-h/daily.png
spicing things up..
enjoy this video haha NOT work SAFE for some.
http://www.currensee.com/itsabeautifulthing/
960 spx would be a GIFT from heaven to BUY..see chart http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SonFOhIfwqI/AAAAAAAABak/g6f3YHqBET4/s1600-h/spx.png
phil,
Agree… IF it goes down that far, looks strong right now but… could change any minute. SPY holding its own on the 15min 36MA but not advancing greatly.
George:
This 1 minute setting a precedent?
Until proven otherwise that 11:09 SPX candle is the “shooter.”
Lower time frames dropping now.
george…..OVERLAP of spx 992 should lead to test of top…i will double longs there
11:30 SPX 1mn candle mighty important and confirmed 11:09 candle’s precedence.
This upshot will and is testing my gearing. Short gears screaming now.
Mitch,
Grandfather is in the Outback and Julia
has not found him yet.
ACTUALLY…… 992.40 OVERLAP needed to imply next wave up
Paula:
Julia may bring back grandpa and her version of Tarzan no?
George,
One area you might want to spend some
time on is changing the number of contracts
you trade based on the strength of your
signals.
GEORGE…look at qqqq daily chart….bollinger bands pinching tight…..big move is coming soon ……cant tell you which way but it should be a DOOZIE!
Mitch,
Let’s just hope she finds Grandfather.
paula:
Is he leaving her like markings and such?
Mitch,
He is in the Outback with an aborigine
medicine man. No one in the tribe
knows where they are.
ooo! I hope all is well paula.
Let us know when he reappears. maybe just meditating in the middle of the woods.
paula:
I’d say tweet them but their 1 server is spotty.
Thanks K.
K now that we are @ 990 how’s ZAGG doing?
I’m assuming range-bound market between 990-975ish. Favouring a break to the downside.
As I’m not at the computer most of the time I was forced to trade when I had time. So I ended up making money on the long side yesterday and on the short side today. My overall timing is out of sync with the market
paula,
I’m not sure if I do it right, but I increase my contracts based upon how far something has been beaten down. Like yesterday, BBT clobbered, I’m willing to bet more than if it already had a strong move up.
paula,
To follow up on my comment, I don’t know how to guage strength, per se. I know if three or more time frames are moving, that “could” be strong but doesn’t always pan out.
Yesterday’s Tres Cruzars on SPY was bucking the trend, didn’t expect it to do much and it has outperformed. I didn’t know that at the time, I only knew that SPY had a sharp down-turn in two days and to look for a counter-trend recovery of some sort. Without thinking too much about it, I just let the indicators tell me what to do.
It would be nice to know how many contracts to buy based up something, but I haven’t figured that out yet.
Us grandpas are easy to lose. We just wonder off at times.
Yerk,
Nice going on the trades. Frustrating when you have no control over when you can trade – been there, done that, don’t want to do it again.
Hang in there.
George
I have killed kiss a Turtle Head, not that it would not worked, but I have found something better. I had been misguided in my strategy design. I kept trying to design things that would work on all stocks. Gave that up and started testing my strategies on a good sample of stocks and take the ones that it works best on. Then I backtest for 3 years. If it holds true for that period it is a keeper. BBT is a big keeper with my new work. CLF, BUCY, JOYG are others.
I also finally stumbled onto something that helps me design strategies. I use four separate indicator crosses as triggers. They rarely happen at the same time technically speaking, always just a freckle off on one indicator. When they all cross at once it is really sweet, but you could wander off waiting. Well I figured out how to allow the last one to cross be the trigger as well as when they all cross at once. I use the 60 as the trigger buy and the 30 as the trigger sell. Sometimes just one of the indicators crosses down and then comes back up. My new method allows that cross back to be a buy because all indicators are back in line.
Just tested JPM, AVG Win on 1000 shares, 623.99, AVG Loser 162.86, W/L % @ 70.71. I am getting there.
String
Hi all from a very hot day in Maine. Yes, Maine, though not at the Mauldin conference.
Stringm, wow… That’s awesome.
The 60 is a great overall time frame. When the stochastic and MACD turn up on it, it hangs on longer.
This is so straightforward looking at it, it’s the programming that’s difficult. You’ve beaten the odds.
BBT is booming today, so is SPY from yesterday. If it caught those two, you’ve got a winner.
Congratulations!
1038 spx next target http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/2009-08-18_spx.png
George
MACD and STO are two of my indicators got BBT and SPY. What is neat though is I let a 30 minute MA going down take me out. Sometimes all that happens on the 60 is the STO falls below the cross. With my new method if the STO goes back up and the other indicators are still crossed up it puts me back and and lets another 30 MA go down take me out. BBT has an 80% win rate. I have had these Nirvana higs in the past and end up getting shot down. I have had some on this test, but have managed to solve them all. In fact that is how I stumbled onto the letting one indicator going back put me in.
George the programming is really not that hard, but you can design things that run in still motion, but you can’t replicate live. I think I finally have that,after NUMEROUS failed attempts. If you have any questions I can help. It is a daunting task and I have spent 100s of hours, no use letting that go to waste, just ask.
String
Stringm,
You’ve just explained price cycles / within cycles. That’s what makes trading confusing. Seeing price going down in a lower time frame while it’s telling us price overall is still moving up on a higher time frame. Ergo… multiple time frame trading.
My attempt is to capture all of that into one indicator, if possible. Just follow the bouncing ball and go with the flow. I don’t know if I can do that with the programming abilities of SD.
phil,
Is the next target on that chart the dashed blue line?
Look at SPY 15min at yesterday’s close. stochastic bottomed, MACD moving up and the final move down only put a dent in the MACD trendlines. By all rights, that move should have knocked the MACD lower on both lines. On the other hand, there was a positive divergence on the Stochastic.
These indicators tell almost everything we need to know. Following Tres Amigas, Tres Cruzars, MA cross overs, etc is all we need as long as we stick to the plan. IMHO.
As humans, we tend to over-analyze and play “what if” games in our minds whereas a simple commitment is all that is needed – win, lose or draw. Since we have the odds in our favor (we don’t just buy anything that comes along), they will be mostly wins or at least overall profitability.
George
That is what was busting my mind in a lot of cases. Over analyzation can be a killer. The 4 indicator cross at the same time is usually a gap move. Some gaps pull back some don’t. Trying to program to determine what is was going to be was beyond me. Don’t believe I didn’t try my ass off. I am just not smart enough or it can’t be done. Armed with backtest info I have for this set of stocks I don’t care I buy my initial position. If it pulls back into the gap and starts to move up, I add to the position.
String
Stringm,
Psychologically, I tell myself each day:
All I have as trading tools are the indicators. All I can do is use them properly, trust them and follow them.
You’re ability (and Matt’s and perhaps others) to capture that trading essence to mechanically determine how to handle those trades without being “involved” is awesome.
String,
“It is a daunting task and I have spent 100s of hours…”
True dat.
Matt
SPY has rallied today on less volume than yesterday. If it were making a bear-flag on the daily chart, this is exactly what it would look like.
After JG’s bear flag call signaled a change in trend, the next bear flag would confirm it
yerk.. I sold zagg last night
but being able to hit 990 makes me happy.
also AXL.. I made a decent scalp today
I told my friend at around 11:30am ” 70 cents above 5 or 50 cents below are my targets”
AXL closed 5.70 on the dot.
I’m down 120 today after +320 yesterday. lol
K – you’re so trigger happy. You asked for support – I indicated 990 and you got them…
Nice one on AXL. That is what I call a solid move up based in a recovering industry.
HPQ sinking in the aftermarket. Profits down, and revenue shrinking:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125062582751240971.html
Matt
Wonder why them, the same thing didn’t seem to bother anyone else. Guess they set their bar too high!!!
String
String,
I think HPQ had the bad luck of reporting during a period when “bad news” is “bad news” again.
Matt
Despite my fondness for my HPQ machine(s) I’m thinking of shorting the heck out of this (EAT style) all the way through the 4Q and let up some time mid 1Q 2010. Please let it hit 50-55.
our company is going back to Dell’s after almost 3 years of HP. why? they cited costs. oh well……..
K:
>>>our company is going back to Dell’s
Too bad they’re giving up because once HP realizes they’ve been shook their only hedge will be cheap machines. Just sayin’
i know. if i was the CIO i’d buy straight made in china PC’s
all kidding aside i like HP’s over Dell’s even though all comps at home are Dell’s except a Fujitsu
Yesterday was the first Major Distribution day since the first week of July. Since they tend to come in clusters, expect more over the next weeks accompanied by price weakness.
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/08/first-major-distribution-day-since-july.html
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=8350290
nuff said
In hindsight it looks like the reflation trade made its peak in the second week of June. So the HS was real. Then came new accounting rules for banks, Whitney and the cost cutting surprises.
2. Wall Street is now screaming for revenue growth. They want to get back to 2007 levels. That is physically impossible, unless Government starts ‘cash for anything’ programs. Which they will do after the next downturn.
I think it would be wise to check Matt’s Box of miracles and to have a keen eye on that EUR/USD.
Good morning Larry. Do you agree the U.S. needs fiscal restraint? Do you think health care reform is a way to reduce the burden on the taxed? Does the U.S. needs a refo as large as that to reconcile its accounts?
Sorry, “needs reform . . . . “
looking at the daily futures 991 is a critical point.. also we’re still not in correction mode yet I see 947 after expiration friday. (aka september)
for now they are looking to cause MAX pain at 980′s
Hi Mitch, I’m on the plane. The West (and Japan) is playing pretend. You can not change it.
It will be a wild ride. De-leveraging coupled with massive niche bubbles here and there every 6 mths. Good luck to all.
futures pivots are now squeezed. if we have another sideways day I will then be ready with all my cash to profit from a quick trade on breakout to either side
here we go /ES
R3 1010.13
R2 1000.06
R3 996.38
P 986.31
S1 982.63
S2 972.56
S3 968.88
right now it is at 987 but sooo close to the pivot that I can’t speculate which was we will break.
2 more funny links.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/ceos_donating_s.html
NICEEE donating stocks to themselves.
—-
2nd and 4th largest bank failures of 2009 (77 total already)
could come as early as this weekend for one of them…
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/update-on-bank-bids-guaranty-texas-and.html