The TRIN-dicator
Believe it or not, my TRIN-dicator is still flashing an overbought condition. While the TRINQ over on the NASDAQ was solidly in selling-pressure country, the TRIN stayed under 1.0 for almost the entire day Monday. And that is very odd because breadth was very bad. I’m not sure what to make of it. Perhaps a lot of stocks were being sold on light-volume, and a small number of other stocks were being bought on very heavy volume.
If you have ideas, please post. It would be interesting to know which stocks were being bought on heavy volume, if that was in fact happening.
On CNBC Monday morning, Jim Cramer raved about the low TRIN, saying it was a fantastic buy signal. I must say that I am appalled by his ignorance. Every trader who uses the TRIN knows that single-day readings mean nothing and that you have to use a moving average. In fact, the guy who invented the TRIN writes for Cramer’s website! How can Cramer have traded for decades and not know how to read the TRIN?
The Never-Ending Market
This watching the futures and overseas markets all night is really wearing me out. So, I don’t have a good in-depth analysis for Tuesday, but I agree with David, we are hitting a lot of extreme readings and a selling climax may be near.
As I logoff at 1:00am EST, the futures are making a bounce, though you need a microscope to see it.
The Next Bear-Market Rally
The March-to-May bear-market rally was very long, impressive, and sucked a lot of people in. The July-to-August bear-market rally – not so much. Though some sectors were moonshots. If we do get a selling climax soon, I’m thinking that the next bear-market rally might be even less impressive than the last one…
XLF Options
Can somebody update us on that gigantic slug of XLF options that we were discussing a couple of weeks ago? Maybe it will help us see where the big options-trading hedge funds will attempt to pin the market this week. Not that a global financial meltdown is the ideal time to attempt to bend the market to your will…
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
damn you matt. i was busy spamming that i missed the greatest idea out there.
Well, it is just an idea. I haven’t actually done an analysis.
GS and MS don’t have a business model. How are they gonna make money going forward? They will be integrated into another bank. Bear Stearns is part of JPM, MER part of BAC, LEH part of Barclays. This time will be called the “Dawn of the Ibanks”.
It seems Ben Bernanke’s “tough love” lasted less than six hours. Well, that is, not counting the shunning of Lehman Brothers over the weekend, whose employees must feel horrible at the moment, seeing the Fed’s warm embrace bypass them again.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/09/federal-reserve-bails-out-aig.html
Get ready for a little relief rally.
as long as my apple goes up and i can sell at the price i want ehehe.
also anyone got any idea why obama fell below support today?
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/mccain-contract-up-25.html
Pooch, would you rip Ameritrade a new one for me too?
Bove’s got what appears a decent idea on vidclip at Markewatch – using Firefox so I can’t watch it. It’s about who GS/MS should buddy up with – Matt you ought to get a cut.
Looks like Rich’s rally is here. Now future are up ~ 1224.
so boys,
once we hit 1230, what then? short the market like crazy again? Drink some koolaid and buy loads of financial stocks?
no charlie we just make the happy dance. hehe
of course kool aid helps
I’m outraged by the continued socialization of losses following unprecedented privatization of gains in the past. I’m especially concerned whether this nationalization of AIG through this enormous loan means that the liabilities of AIG are also the federal governments (ie, tax payer) problem too. Does anyone know whether this is the case?
wow people at fox seemed happy that AIG got Bailed out. Lehman could be bought out for 2 Billion.
that is most definitely the case Ray and you can be sure that your grandkids are goingf to be paying for it.
Has anyone ever considered if these bailouts by the FED and the risk he is taking on for regular Americans is legal?
AIG being funded nother pop in the morning
wow they seriously seem to be covering the sell of lehman on tv i guess trying to restore people’s confidence… bleh.
guys, i think this govt action has created a tradeable short term bottom. check out woodshedder’s post on ibankcoin.com.
2 more news before matt makes wednesday thread
SanDisk rejects $6 billion offer from Samsung
China paper urges new currency order after “financial tsunami”
“The world urgently needs to create a diversified currency and financial system and fair and just financial order that is not dependent on the United States.”
Ray,
It is a loan, so the most we can lose is $85B. At least they are paying 11% on the loan. Much better deal than the $29B bailout of JPMorgan/BSC, which doesn’t even have to be paid back.
Pooch,
MS may also pop.