Tuesday’s Trading – 9/28/2010

A week ago, I pointed out that the XLF, IWM, and IYT were not validating the SPX’s breakout above 1130, and they still aren’t. In addition to those three laggards is the XLE. If the global economy were on fire, surely the energy stocks would be breaking out, right?

Nevertheless, IWM, IYT, and XLE are all within one day’s march of victory. So, bears should bear (ha, ha) that in mind. Volume on Monday was light, so the selling was not serious.

Both the IWM and IYT are “crawling along” their resistance levels, and that is usually a bullish indication because it shows a relentless eroding of the barrier. The IWM also did not make a lower intra-day low in Monday’s whoosh down into the bell.

The XLE doesn’t look terribly perky, but it did rally on strong volume Friday, and consolidated on light volume Monday, so that’s a bullish posture.

The XLF is the train-wreck of the group. Its rally volume on Friday was ho-hum, and it would probably need two strong days to take out $15.09. Morgan Stanly’s hiring freeze isn’t helping matters.

71 Responses to “Tuesday’s Trading – 9/28/2010”

  1. Robo says:

    I still think we started a new Bear Market in April of this year for most indexes, and we will see new lows in 2011. However, we have – “The Very Important Four-Year Presidential Cycle. 2010″ coming up, and it looks like many folks have already bought into it in my opinion and are getting positioned.

    http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html

    Is this why so many are so sure of this rally, and many folks have no fear? I don’t know – It’s a tough call, but I’m holding my short positions for now, until we are no longer overbought and then decide.

    Good trading to all, and this is one tough market for Bulls and Bears!

    Matt,

    Thanks for a great blog!

  2. George says:

    In the past, when companies tightened their belts their stocks would often go up. Perceived as cost-cutting to be more profitable.

  3. George says:

    Robo,

    Nice read about the Presidential Cycle. The lawmakers should do everything they can to boost the economy all of the time, not just for votes.

  4. phil says:

    robo…

    im not buying into stock rally till after oct 23

    i did just buy large amounts of TLT premarket @ 104.70 – 104.80

  5. phil says:

    bond futures breaking above yest peak

    sold 1/2 TLT @ 105.55

  6. George says:

    Gap-filling. ’bout time.

  7. phil says:

    g

    the last rally was 3 waves in spx fut

    so correction continues.. spx 1108 area is 38% retrace

  8. phil says:

    2th

    you will know when to buy………

    if you get my drift……….

  9. Mitch says:

    Is the bond market presuming no fiscal stimuli?

  10. George says:

    p

    Tks. I have 1098 for a 38% retrace.

  11. Mitch says:

    Sure looks like it. Can we get a vote?

  12. George says:

    Intraday this is a parabolic move so there should be a nice rebound.

  13. phil says:

    G

    38% of 1040 to 1150 is 42…1150-42 is 1108

    you must be looking at those crappy Stock Chart charts

  14. phil says:

    bought a little at 1133

  15. phil says:

    mitch

    i dont care about the economy or any news

    i just look at the chart

    the bond chart says up

    the stock chart says correction continues …then upward blast

  16. phil says:

    G

    i want to sell more bonds into the next push up

    my target has already been hit

  17. phil says:

    sold 1/2 schx bot @ 1133

  18. George says:

    p

    You’re right about the crappy StockCharts: That’s what I was looking at. :)

  19. phil says:

    sold more TLT

    only a small amount left now

  20. George says:

    Now is the time for the market to show if this is serious selling.

  21. George says:

    p

    You’ve beat Babe Ruth’s record by now.

  22. phil says:

    g

    this is TREMENDOUS trading action !!!!!

  23. phil says:

    g

    thanks

    hope you are catching the great swings

  24. phil says:

    g

    i have to admit i was asleep at the switch at tlt 106.10…

    .only got 105.79

  25. George says:

    Tinypic still not working. I need to find another outlet.

  26. George says:

    p

    Yes, I’m catching the good swings. I was in SKF yesterday so I got that great move this AM.

    Now in the underlying SSO to see if it can make a good move or reverse.

  27. phil says:

    g

    i love this game

    i do love it so……..

  28. George says:

    Thursday I will be getting Road Runner Turbo – 10mbps. I currently have RR Lite at 750kbs – which is fine for trading. I used 350kbs for years.

    Think I’ll notice a difference? LOL :)

  29. phil says:

    g

    road runner is my favorite

    with 383 cubic inches and four barrel carb

  30. phil says:

    g

    2TH

    $TNX about to test lows

    waiting to get on the phone to sell 10 yr notes

  31. Mitch says:

    phil,

    Notes and Bonds have been rallying for years. Check out a linear regression for fun.

  32. George says:

    Also getting TW phone service.

    ATT reception for cell phones here at the house is terrible here so I got a ATT Micro Cell. It uses the Internet and gives full 5 bar coverage plus 3G. Works very well.

    It cost $150 to get cell reception at home – how crummy is that?

  33. 2thfixr says:

    I’ll keep my eyes open looking for the sentiment indicator Phil.

    Nice trades all….good job.

  34. phil says:

    mitch

    your point is??

  35. phil says:

    2th

    thanks

  36. phil says:

    back in long again @ 1144

  37. phil says:

    2th

    couldnt wait for our buy signal

  38. phil says:

    2th

    futures tested 618% of last wave and did a rocket blast up

  39. phil says:

    if you dont get in fast this rocket will leave the launch site without you

  40. George says:

    New high for gold.

    TNX down yesterday and today.

    “Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble”. I know what you’re thinking, “Wizard of Oz”; nope, that was an original stock market quote used in the film. :D

    (Just kidding)

  41. George says:

    p

    Was that 61% on an intraday time frame you’re looking at?

  42. phil says:

    from yestterdays peak

  43. George says:

    Volatility trumps MAs.

    That last SPY move went above the 15min 36MA but no 9/36/15 cross – not even close. However, stochastic and MACD followed price.

    …just sayin’…

  44. George says:

    That was a beautiful counter. I was waiting on it using stochastic alignments on three time frames.

  45. George says:

    p

    Gotcha. Tks

  46. George says:

    …and of course a heads-up from P.

  47. George says:

    Its been a great day and not even noon yet. Keep this yo-yo going, A-Team!

  48. phil says:

    bought some TLT as a hedge

  49. phil says:

    g

    shooting star 15min spy right at 36ma

  50. phil says:

    gold is getting frothy

    going to sell my double long gold etf into this surge soon DGP

  51. George says:

    SPY has consolidated enough now to allow the 9MA to catch up to the 36MA on the 15min. Not touching yet, but not far to go for the cross.

  52. phil says:

    sold DGP @ 36.69

  53. phil says:

    bonds getting frothy

    selling TLT into this surge soon

  54. George says:

    p

    DGP has been on a rip since the beginning of the year. You’ve done well.

  55. phil says:

    great auction results

    santelli gives it an A

    sold TLT

  56. phil says:

    great auction results

    santelli gives it an A

    sold TLT

  57. George says:

    35bln 5-year notes, high yield 1.26%. Bid to cover 2.96. (Source: CNBC-RT)

  58. phil says:

    bought some sds 29.56

  59. after says:

    Phil, this 3:03 trade, is this for short term, medium term, any targets, or have you sold it already ? -g- (3:10 pm now)

  60. phil says:

    g

    now i am long and short

    i have to win something….lol

  61. George says:

    p

    You have them surrounded. :)

  62. phil says:

    after

    i dont have a clue

  63. phil says:

    i have triple amount of long vs short
    going to sell 1/3 soon

  64. George says:

    SPY nearing double top intraday.

  65. phil says:

    sold 1/3

  66. George says:

    Did SPY eeek out a new high?

  67. phil says:

    g

    by luck i sold at top tick

  68. phil says:

    g

    yes .. new high

    as soon as i saw spy breakout i sold……lol

  69. George says:

    WTG… p

    Now you have the inverse to profit from tomorrow. I like it. Hey, I’d buy inverse at any price and sit on it with those two open daily gaps below.

  70. Hank says:

    George, looks a lot like the consolidation before the last few dumps.
    VERY comfortable with my shorts :) Buying dips at 112.5 SPY paid off until now, when it fails I am betting on 9 handles. Guessing about halfway through earnings season.