A week ago, I pointed out that the XLF, IWM, and IYT were not validating the SPX’s breakout above 1130, and they still aren’t. In addition to those three laggards is the XLE. If the global economy were on fire, surely the energy stocks would be breaking out, right?
Nevertheless, IWM, IYT, and XLE are all within one day’s march of victory. So, bears should bear (ha, ha) that in mind. Volume on Monday was light, so the selling was not serious.
Both the IWM and IYT are “crawling along” their resistance levels, and that is usually a bullish indication because it shows a relentless eroding of the barrier. The IWM also did not make a lower intra-day low in Monday’s whoosh down into the bell.
The XLE doesn’t look terribly perky, but it did rally on strong volume Friday, and consolidated on light volume Monday, so that’s a bullish posture.
The XLF is the train-wreck of the group. Its rally volume on Friday was ho-hum, and it would probably need two strong days to take out $15.09. Morgan Stanly’s hiring freeze isn’t helping matters.
I still think we started a new Bear Market in April of this year for most indexes, and we will see new lows in 2011. However, we have – “The Very Important Four-Year Presidential Cycle. 2010″ coming up, and it looks like many folks have already bought into it in my opinion and are getting positioned.
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html
Is this why so many are so sure of this rally, and many folks have no fear? I don’t know – It’s a tough call, but I’m holding my short positions for now, until we are no longer overbought and then decide.
Good trading to all, and this is one tough market for Bulls and Bears!
Matt,
Thanks for a great blog!
In the past, when companies tightened their belts their stocks would often go up. Perceived as cost-cutting to be more profitable.
Robo,
Nice read about the Presidential Cycle. The lawmakers should do everything they can to boost the economy all of the time, not just for votes.
robo…
im not buying into stock rally till after oct 23
i did just buy large amounts of TLT premarket @ 104.70 – 104.80
bond futures breaking above yest peak
sold 1/2 TLT @ 105.55
Gap-filling. ’bout time.
g
the last rally was 3 waves in spx fut
so correction continues.. spx 1108 area is 38% retrace
2th
you will know when to buy………
if you get my drift……….
Is the bond market presuming no fiscal stimuli?
p
Tks. I have 1098 for a 38% retrace.
Sure looks like it. Can we get a vote?
Intraday this is a parabolic move so there should be a nice rebound.
G
38% of 1040 to 1150 is 42…1150-42 is 1108
you must be looking at those crappy Stock Chart charts
bought a little at 1133
mitch
i dont care about the economy or any news
i just look at the chart
the bond chart says up
the stock chart says correction continues …then upward blast
G
i want to sell more bonds into the next push up
my target has already been hit
sold 1/2 schx bot @ 1133
p
You’re right about the crappy StockCharts: That’s what I was looking at.
sold more TLT
only a small amount left now
Now is the time for the market to show if this is serious selling.
p
You’ve beat Babe Ruth’s record by now.
g
this is TREMENDOUS trading action !!!!!
g
thanks
hope you are catching the great swings
g
i have to admit i was asleep at the switch at tlt 106.10…
.only got 105.79
Tinypic still not working. I need to find another outlet.
p
Yes, I’m catching the good swings. I was in SKF yesterday so I got that great move this AM.
Now in the underlying SSO to see if it can make a good move or reverse.
g
i love this game
i do love it so……..
Thursday I will be getting Road Runner Turbo – 10mbps. I currently have RR Lite at 750kbs – which is fine for trading. I used 350kbs for years.
Think I’ll notice a difference? LOL
g
road runner is my favorite
with 383 cubic inches and four barrel carb
g
2TH
$TNX about to test lows
waiting to get on the phone to sell 10 yr notes
phil,
Notes and Bonds have been rallying for years. Check out a linear regression for fun.
Also getting TW phone service.
ATT reception for cell phones here at the house is terrible here so I got a ATT Micro Cell. It uses the Internet and gives full 5 bar coverage plus 3G. Works very well.
It cost $150 to get cell reception at home – how crummy is that?
I’ll keep my eyes open looking for the sentiment indicator Phil.
Nice trades all….good job.
mitch
your point is??
2th
thanks
back in long again @ 1144
2th
couldnt wait for our buy signal
2th
futures tested 618% of last wave and did a rocket blast up
if you dont get in fast this rocket will leave the launch site without you
New high for gold.
TNX down yesterday and today.
“Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble”. I know what you’re thinking, “Wizard of Oz”; nope, that was an original stock market quote used in the film.
(Just kidding)
p
Was that 61% on an intraday time frame you’re looking at?
from yestterdays peak
Volatility trumps MAs.
That last SPY move went above the 15min 36MA but no 9/36/15 cross – not even close. However, stochastic and MACD followed price.
…just sayin’…
That was a beautiful counter. I was waiting on it using stochastic alignments on three time frames.
p
Gotcha. Tks
…and of course a heads-up from P.
Its been a great day and not even noon yet. Keep this yo-yo going, A-Team!
bought some TLT as a hedge
g
shooting star 15min spy right at 36ma
gold is getting frothy
going to sell my double long gold etf into this surge soon DGP
SPY has consolidated enough now to allow the 9MA to catch up to the 36MA on the 15min. Not touching yet, but not far to go for the cross.
sold DGP @ 36.69
bonds getting frothy
selling TLT into this surge soon
p
DGP has been on a rip since the beginning of the year. You’ve done well.
great auction results
santelli gives it an A
sold TLT
great auction results
santelli gives it an A
sold TLT
35bln 5-year notes, high yield 1.26%. Bid to cover 2.96. (Source: CNBC-RT)
bought some sds 29.56
Phil, this 3:03 trade, is this for short term, medium term, any targets, or have you sold it already ? -g- (3:10 pm now)
g
now i am long and short
i have to win something….lol
p
You have them surrounded.
after
i dont have a clue
i have triple amount of long vs short
going to sell 1/3 soon
SPY nearing double top intraday.
sold 1/3
Did SPY eeek out a new high?
g
by luck i sold at top tick
g
yes .. new high
as soon as i saw spy breakout i sold……lol
WTG… p
Now you have the inverse to profit from tomorrow. I like it. Hey, I’d buy inverse at any price and sit on it with those two open daily gaps below.
SPY daily consolidation:
http://i55.tinypic.com/14mtn4.jpg
George, looks a lot like the consolidation before the last few dumps.
Buying dips at 112.5 SPY paid off until now, when it fails I am betting on 9 handles. Guessing about halfway through earnings season.
VERY comfortable with my shorts