Yesterday, I mentioned the IYT’s gap at 68.57 from September 10th. Well, everything rallied on Monday, however the IYT came in second from last place among the sectors. Only the consumer staples (XLP) did worse, up 0.75%. And while the IYT was up 1.06%, it spent the last four hours of the day slowly rounding over. On Friday morning, I mentioned that we should be alert for a “slow rounding turn” pattern, and that’s what we had. And as per the textbook (page 88), it finished with a nearly vertical move Monday morning.
Oddly enough, if you look at intra-day charts from Monday of IYT, QQQQ, DIA, IWM, etc. you will see what might be a rounding top forming. It would be weird for a rounding bottom to morph right into a rounding top, but that’s what the pattern looks like so far. The market could have cascaded into the close on Monday, but the XLF and BKX were very strong and held the market up. Speaking of which, the 48.75 area is very important for the BKX. It was support in the summer and fall of 2008, cracked, and was then resistance in the winter. The banks need to punch through that level. It’s hard to have a bull market without the banks, and the BKX’s 200-day moving average has not turned up yet.
Who goos’ed the moose? Little volatility here.
Take a look at the commitment of traders for gold. This indicates a big fall in gold coming. That in turn indicates a rally in the USD. All this puts me in the bear camp for the stock market.
SPY is trying to fill its gap at 109.56.
Notice that the chatter about short-selling and inverse ETFs has simmered down with the market rally. It will raise its head if there is a MOAR in the inverse.
Amazon at ATH. P/E of 60.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=amzn
Anyone else feelin’ the luv on SRS?
Let’s get some inverse. Yep, I’ll be going back to my “core” positioning if there is a downturn.
K’s Sympathy Shares are alive and well. They’ve been recycled so many times they’re almost worn out.
40 Short
Still have month-end, quarter-end effect in play. Or will it be a Miff’ed Market Myth?
Flim flam at 11:00.
SPY 15min nearing 36MA. This has been a popular springboard the past several weeks to propel it higher. We’ll see if it does it this time.
The other option is that the 30min or 60min could be recycling and they will provide support – if it is going to happen.
EOM is falling sharply
SRS is Mootiful today but coming up on minor tops.
If short-sellers ever get the hang of not covering at each up-tick, they could get something going.
George. Did you get a chance to read my latest blog post from last night. This plays out just too well
.
K,
I certainly did. I never miss your blog. I check it daily.
Right-on dude.
You can tell the generation I from, huh?
…just sayin’
K,
You might want to use the Herrick Payoff
Index. I think I got the spelling correct
this time.
K,
Google…prophet.net…click on futures.
Pick the futures you want to track
from list on left hand side as you
scroll down.
SKF needs to turnaround to the upside soon or else it will have a Humpty-Dumbty on the 5min.
The stochastic on SPY 15min has been positive fo about an hour.
SPY is at resistance on the 15min 36MA. Is above it somewhat but needs to confirm.
Dip-buying alive and well.
Still can’t tell if SPX wanting to go to new highs. Could be true. Today’s waveform is not what I wanted to see.
UUP, however, shows a nice IH&S starting 9-15 with a slightly upsloped neckline currently around 22.91. It broke above the neckline this morning, and now is just about to backtest it. Will the test hold and the UUP bounce, or will the UUP succumb and the market continue its rampant rise?
UUP now on the neckline. 22.91.
If SPX made a leading diagonal off the top and we just experienced a zz to the 62 Fib, we need to see some real red action going on now. There are other ways to count the morning action, too.
UUP tested that IH&S neckline to the penny, and so far is bouncing off it nicely. On the 15 min, it bounced off the RSI 50. Let’s keep it uuuuup.
$TYX is at key resistance now……selling some 30 yr bonds now
JUNGLEGIRL…. dont ASSUME a dollar rally means stocks go down…everyone is getting too COMPLACENT with that idea and it is dangerous…..the dollar rallied all the way up to the 2000 stock top and fell with the market post 2000…..
MITCH…its curious that TLT has cleared resistance but $TYX and $TNX have not
DOLLAR LOW SHOULD BE NEAR http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/Sr3PAEjyTQI/AAAAAAAACA0/VF1pqJnn_VE/s1600-h/USD+Daily.png
LOOKS like a 5 wave impulse up from 1041….COULD be start of next up wave….needs to accelerate upwards soon
phil… that is true.
ok ,,,have to go….good luck to all……
Any guesses on GDP tomorrow?
If SKF can get past its 5min 36MA it will redeem its Humpty-Dumbty status for today.
Whistle while you work:
Goodbye Doji Tuesday
Who could hang a count on you
When you turn into a trend day [down]
Then I’m gonna kiss you.
(Sorry for being OT Matt.)
Need to see some more red here to make the bearish count. Market seems like it wants to wait on tomorrow’s releases.
rebuilding of inventories should be a positive bias for GDP
For the last five minutes, SPX has been skimming the bottom side of today’s upper channel line.
i think iam going to watch a pot of water boil
15 minute shows UUP to be holding neckline support. The UUP daily has RSI at 47.48 and pointed upward. I’d like to see it cross 50 and hold.
Scotty,
ROFL! I just did that very thing about 30 minutes ago (making tea).
yaawnn just trying to stay awake,dow has been stuck in a 5 point range the last 2-3 hours
JG, you’re a poet too. Nobody wants to make a move. Maybe at 3:30 some volatility will erupt.
If there’s good news tomorrow the market will tank. You heard it here first.
Meanwhile, I’m playing the 1min stochastic swings until some kind of trend gets going.
I believe we had a small move in the MC Osicillator which portends to a big move in equities and Iam leaning towards up cause bears couldn’t break this down again
but…down 4 out of 5 days trend change??
The sum of all my concerns about China. Interesting graphs…
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20226272/Chinas-Great-Leap-Into-the-Unkown
crapping out again into the close
$INDU took out the low of the day and then backed off slightly (i.e. went slightly higher).
better hold 9750 and 1060 or trouble looms ahead
Yerk, looks like a great post. I’ll read it tonight. Thanks.
Yerk
You come up wtith some neat reads, thanks.
String
looking to short apple tomorrow
Geoge,
Thanks to you I made money on NE last
Sunday. Who do I put my money on
when they play the Ravens this week???
YIKES
I change my mind again TED spread down 14% almost today after that special bank meeting lol.
this just makes me laugh out loud
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cit-bankruptcy-v20-next-upcoming-debt-equity-conversion-renders-equity-worthlesser
look at CIT up 32% today.
1:54PM cramer says he would buy it. afterhours -27% WOHOOOOOOOOOOO
Great reference and reading on the CIT implosion K. Another knife in the coffin of small business in America.
Yerk, China article was fascinating. Bust of the China capital spending boom likened to the implosion in US real estate…now there you have a recipe for the start of P3.
Larry, I can feel your finger just itching to pull the trigger on this market. You were uncanny on the upside.
Yerk, read the Shipping piece from Mr Randers. Excellent. We are in one of those 4 years downturns now with too many newbuilds coming onboard, but Iran (Persian Gulf) and scrapping of Single-Hull ships are wild cards.
Will read the China piece later.
Randall, I am gambling now. I shouldn’t be doing it, but couldn’t resist. API figures showed large build in Crude supplies. Let’s see if it is reconfirmed today.
K and others: For you RIMM and Apple fans. This statistics show daily usage of mobile browser around the world. You could see Blackberry was having a hell of a run from April 1 to June 20, then flat-lining.
Blackberry and iPhone dominates momentum in Anglo-Saxon world now. Nokia in rest of world (Distribution strength). Opera Software on the rise, question is if they will make any bucks.
I am not sure if one could use this to speculate, but bookmark it and use it as an indicator. Don’t share it with too many people.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_browser-na-daily-20081201-20090723
Paula,
Glad the red/white/blue paid off. I’ll check out the Ravens’ uniforms and let you know.
Larry,
I have a RIMM device and i gotta tell you that those stats can be thrown off as blackberry allows you to download other browsers. I’ve been using opera beta version lately its better than the native internet that shows up as “Blackberry”
just sayin…
this is a better stat not browsers.
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-na-daily-20081201-20090723
Agree K. Should check both Browser and Operating System.
Anyway, I had the wrong date in my link. Need to extend to 30 September 2009. Then you see the trend for Blackberry both on browsing and OS.
Agree it’s not 100% reliable, but could be used as an indicator.
do you wonder why the itouch has fallen so much? people want internet on the Go. near wifi most have laptops lol
futures having a tough time with 1056.65
they got MAJOR support at 1052.56 (fib and moving averages in one place)