Turkey Day Discussion
On Sunday night, Bloomberg will release its analyst estimates for next week’s economic reports. The estimate for next Friday’s jobs report could be -300k. During this recession, we will probably chalk-up a couple of -400k reports at some point.
If I had any long positions, I would close them out on Friday before reality intrudes upon the rally next week. Don’t forget, the market plunges ahead of the jobs report, not after it.
November 26th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Dressguard,
Arlovski is from Minsk, so he is a Ukrainian - for now. I’m sure that Ukraine is on Putin’s to-conquer list right along with Alaska. I don’t think that we will ever see him in the UFC again. He danced around and avoided actually fighting in his last couple of matches, and any fighter who won’t fight is quickly given the boot. That’s how the UFC always manages to put on a good show. It’s a shame, because Arlovski used to be a very exciting fighter, but somehow became gun-shy.
Matt
November 26th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Lots of talking heads on CNBC today were predicting a fabulous Black Friday and recommending retail stocks. I think some sort of insanity virus is going around. This is a consumer-lead recession, three times as bad as our last recession. Why are people so giddy about how much consumers will spend on Friday? And how exactly do retailers make fabulous profits when everything is 90% off?
Not only is the economy contracting, but the contraction is intensifying. Bear-market rallies have the reputation for being devilishly seductive, and I think we are seeing a textbook example of that right now.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Pooch,
You are a shithead. Please go away.
Matt
Note: People disagree with me all the time. I, of course, welcome that because I always keep an open mind. But if somebody is insulting and derisive when they present their view, then they get on my shithead list.
November 26th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
LOL pooch just keep it to yourself it seems.
let’s go matt. everybody is amazed by how the market is up so much in past 4 days. one more day and let’s ride this baby down. can i borrow the printing machine too?
November 26th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
This afternoon, I loaded up on triple-short ETF’s when the TickQ hit the second highest reading of the year. The only time more stocks were up on the NASDAQ was on July 16th at the top of the historic short-squeeze rally after shorting financial stocks was outlawed. The market is profoundly overbought.
The NYSE TICK was not quite so extreme. It hit higher levels a few times in October before the big crash. It is not impossible for prices to push higher, but even if they do, they will almost certainly be back to this level in the coming days. Shorting here is as close to zero risk as you will ever see in the market.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I wonder if this trend line will be broken tho?
http://i37.tinypic.com/akc3df.png
but anyways Have a Happy Thanksgiving Matt, and everyone on this board it’s been a pleasure sharing ideas and learning from you all.
-K
November 26th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
A good Black Friday retail result may push us up through mid next week. That might take us to SPX 950 - 1000. I see the channel resistance (thanks K.) at 900 but the 1000 level seems like a more powerful resistance line.
I am sitting on a small short position. I may be too conservative and miss out, but my next SDS adds won’t be until $85 and $81. ( Equivalent to SPX 950 - 1000 if I read the charts correctly)
Matt, just curious, are you keeping enough powder dry to hit the market at SPX 950 or 1000?
Thanks to everyone on this blog. I have learned a lot and saved even more. (I still have a 401K not 201K or 41K like some of my colleagues) Have a great Thanksgiving.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
newbie,
We have a rare overbought condition right now. You have to short these things when they occur. I still have a good deal of cash, but I am considering going all-in triple-short on Friday. I don’t mind if the market goes a bit higher. It’s a rare trader who never has to endure pain, and in fact, your ability to endure pain and not barf-up is by far the most important trading skill that there is.
Matt
November 26th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Dividends are being slashed at the fastest rate in over 50 years, as Bloomberg reports here.
The “getting paid to wait” strategy of buying cheap stocks with good dividends is evaporating.
When Cisco is shutting down for a few days to save money and cancels its Christmas party, you know there is something seriously wrong with the global economy.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Matt,
I love watching you guys trade. I started work for an investment bank in October and had to sell out of my portfolio. Give ‘em hell for me.
PS: How are you liking the trips ETF’s? Good for the short term I think but if we get back breaking volatility in those again I think they are gonna start getting killed.
November 26th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Awake,
Congratulations on the new job.
Do you mean that both the long and short triple ETF’s will get killed?
I took profits on my TZA last week at $146, and I’m buying it back now at $73, so I’m enjoying them very much so far.
Matt
November 26th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
Thanks for your thoughts Matt. Too be honest, historically the trend of a down day on Monday may be in our favor.. If you take a look at the following which was compiled by someone from the StockTock community:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/spx-before-and-after
Courtesy of Jerry48.
I don’t discount the possibility that we will rally to 950 or even 1000 on the SPX. It would not be surprising at all, but we are due for a pullback. We might just have a slight down day on Friday given the light volume. It will be easy for MM’s to keep the market afloat.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:04 am
Charlie,
Yes, I hope that they keep it up on Friday. When they did that at the end of October, they set up an unbelievably fantastic shorting opportunity.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 12:18 am
Online retailers suffer 4% drop in first three weeks of November. I can’t stop people from betting on a Black Friday upside surprise, but you would have to put a gun to my head to get me bet on it.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:29 am
take it from me. This black friday there’s really not many good deals. sure things will sell but freekin weak.
FDO is still a nice stock to own during a recession me thinks?
November 27th, 2008 at 1:25 am
This guy argues that Obama will declare a banking holiday and nationalize the rest of the big banks - but only if Bush isn’t forced to do so first. Citibank has already been nationalized.
He says that Paulson tried to stop spending the TARP money because he realized that no matter what he did with it, the situation was totally hopeless. So Paulson tried to do the rational thing and hand off the disaster to Obama.
And finally, the biggest change in 500 years will strike the globe as the dollar system collapses in 2009.
I have been wondering if this was “the big one” where Washington finally explodes after decades of egregious stupidity. I’m hoping it’s not because I want another low-interest-rate fueled bubble-cycle to play over the next several years, but I’m starting to think that there is a good chance that this guy may be right.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:34 am
and while we roll onto the thanksgiving day here is another interesting perspective of the s&p
http://www.stocktock.com/2008/11/26/the-money-flow-indicator-and-spy/
November 27th, 2008 at 1:36 am
so when our dollars are worthless..
i want to hedge a bit early
we go to euros? yen? gold?
November 27th, 2008 at 2:06 am
K,
The USA might experience a rather sudden, and involuntary, return to the gold standard, which would likely feature another seizure of gold from the people. Owning real estate might be the best play since our government doesn’t seize it very often, and when they do hand over your property to a developer, they at least pay you for it.
Thanks for the StockTock link. I didn’t realize that the WSJ had such a cool money-flow tracker. I’ll be using that extensively.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 3:46 am
Folks, there are many bears who called the bottom 2-3 weeks ago. At levels just above the current. From what I understand this is based on EW and would last to March before the next downturn. I think these bears (and banks) are driving this.
I believe Matt is right. Gravity will win. The world economy is tanking. Europe is up 2% today. But global events, country and currency failures and the nationalization of U.S. Capitalism will drag this thing down. Short or long term.
30 short, 70 cash/gold.
November 27th, 2008 at 5:32 am
Matt,
many thanks for your postings, especially the Engdahl link. A good summary, still too optimistic as he is US centric and misses the ramifications in other countries, which will feed back into the US. (Larry this Iceland link is very saddening and shows what awaits for those at the fringes. Crops next year will be bad as farmers couldn’t afford fertilizers)
Here is good analysis of the current state of affairs with regard to unemployment and a look behind the manipulation of data. You know a real turning point is reached when politicians get elected who stop all this bullshitting in statistics as they want to run the country for results. There is a brief window of opportunity for these guys before they get voted out of office for the next one promising to walk on water.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
K, I was just going to post the link - good catch!
Larry, EW wave 4 does not imply that we rally for months. It can well be we chop for months going nowhere trading between 1050 and 750. (There are still some counters stuck in wave 3 waiting for the final drop). EW works always better in hindsight - obviously the major theme going forward is wave 5 is waiting in 09.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:33 am
I’ve been sitting out this market. Alot of scary stuff being posted here today. Short-term market hopes appear tied to Black Friday sales and that does not look promising. Red Friday may lead to Black Monday.
It is amazing how the market has rallied….albeit during a week when markets are most vulnerable to manipulation and when EOM window dressing is in full swing. Still, I don’t think you can discount the effect of crashing oil and gas prices on public optimism.
The tug of war next week will be fierce, it could set the tone for the next 3 to 6 months. Hard to believe we get a crash before Xmas, but that may in fact happen.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Th McClellan Osc — while quite overbought — still is not as high as it got before the last big stock rally petered out.
So room for some more rally before a reversal.
http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
November 27th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Matt-
It looks like the SPX will complete its move
up around Dec 12 +/- two trading days…
and then start its move to new lows.
….HAPPY THANKSGIVING everyone
When Dad and I buy GM Matt, we will give
you a new Buick.
Sherry
November 27th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Interesting — even Puplava is expecting an “overdue rally” — based on “a short to intermediate end to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade” and a declining VIX — with a target between 970 and 1029.03.
If we really got up that high, that would be great, and fit with the broadening pattern we discussed earlier.
Given the fundamentals, the money flow, the end-of-month effect, and the down channel, the odds of a plunge down next week still seem better.
Asia and Europe up today, dollar flat.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I see a lot of analysts pointing to the falling Vix as a bullish indicator. In reality, the exact opposite is true. A rapidly falling Vix means rapidly rising complacency. This is very easy to prove. Just look at the last time the Vix plunged. It peaked on October 27th and plunged to a recent low on November 4th. Going long at that point would have had you top-ticking the election rally - a totally disastrous trade.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Sherry,
Thanks for the Buick, and I will set my alarm for December 12th.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Matt — the money flow is also pretty dramatic if you look at the actual numbers for end of October (352, 158, 535) and November (597, 275). We’ve already had a four-day rally, hopefully soon to be five, and the first two the strongest in decades.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Sherry - a Buick? Matt deserves better than that. Should be powered by this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_S85
If it has to be a buick than this one should be ok - I know one of the guys in charge of the platform: http://www.autoblog.com/2008/11/05/chinas-insignia-based-buick-regal-revealed/.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Hey Sherry,
where do you get that Dec 12th turn date from. Just curious.
BTW.. thanks for the posts above. The money flow indicator is especially interesting.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:40 am
This is a very interesting article on the 10 year note btw..
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/26/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm?postversion=2008112617
November 27th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Valuations are getting back in line with historic averages - though they tend to go below average during downturns http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/099f6380-bb1f-11dd-bc6c-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
The current analyst’s expectations are a bit all over the place and so far have only been slashed for financials, other sectors showing some decline. Curiously everyone I talk to with some insights into the real economy tells story of massive and unprecedented reductions.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Pansonic has slashed its earnings estimates by 90%. Another bad omen for Black Friday.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Happy Thanksgiving Gang.
All,
I am becoming EXTREMELY concerned about currency and country failure. What we have seen in the last few months is ENTIRELY consistent with governments gone wild. The logical conclusion is a currency collapse. Nothing else makes sense.
Here are my thoughts (my apologies as this is a blurb of what is twirling in my mind and not properly organized)
- Currency is backed by the taxpayer
- FNM/FRE debt is now guaranteed by the taxpayer
- All large financial debt is guaranteed by the taxpayer or will be
- Keynesians incharge. They are telling the government to spend, spend, spend.
- Spending cannot work as the main problem is overall debt burden on society. Spending would have worked AFTER debt had been destroyed but we are not letting it.
- A bunch of academics have diagnosed that the great depression was caused by lack of swift and decisive govt action. To me the Austrians and Mises make far more sense. I am not an economist so it is possible that I am missing something. But I think that the debt collapse in the early part of the GD set the stage for a recovery which arrived when keynesians policies were applied (necessary because of the lack of confidence at the time). But we are applying keynes (a) without allowing a debt collapse (b) having abused keynesian policies for decades.
- The sheer amount of debt on every person in society is astounding. About 14T in consumer debt and another 11T in federal debt. Then there are state and local govts. For simple math assume 30T divided by 300 million population. That is $100K per person. For a family of 4, it is 400K.
With median family income in the 40-50K range, this is not serviceable.
- Throw in medicare and social security
- Throw in retiring boomers
- Throw in the fact that we have an entitlement mentality. We “deserve” everything.
- Throw in the politicians who get to power by telling the people they can have everything.
- The govt will spend at every level to provide what people “deserve”. This can only be done via printing and printing will gut the economy and destroy our future.
- While people remain afraid, the printing will not have much effect. Eventually, people will stop being frightened and realize that there is an infinite amount of paper and the govt keeps printing more. And when that happens, we collapse.
- I am also getting the feeling (I don’t have data) that we will see most major currencies/countries collapse. Spain, Italy, Britain, etc. all are following the same policies.
What is the timeframe for this? I don’t know. I would think that this takes 5-10 years to play out but it can happen much sooner. Perhaps the guy Engdahl is right and 2009 will be the year.
What is the best way to ride this out? I think Matt has hit it on the head that real estate may be the only way to go. Assuming property will not be confiscated, it will be there when we come out of this mess. It will command rent which should pay off property taxes assuming you can find someone to rent it to. Other ideas would be buying shares of minimally leveraged energy companies and REITS.
Please give me reasons why we are not heading down this path. Please, please…..
November 27th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Charlie-
Wave length.
Matt-
Don’t sleep too sound…may have
to wake you up early.
Sherry
November 27th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Charlie,
Yes, the plunge in the 10-year yield is yet another historic milestone. And when you see stocks make an historic rally while that is happening you know there is only one way that can happen: a short squeeze.
The stock market is flashing the all-clear sign on Citigroup, but the bond market still has the air-raid siren going at full blast.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Was just reading this too… Very interesting what this implies…
http://www.schaffersresearch.com/commentary/content/bearish+bets+build+on+jp+morgan+chase/observations.aspx?id=89415
November 27th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Matt, the plunge in the 10years is short-covering in the bond market due to reduction of mortgage cost due to latest changes by the Fed. It is not a flight to safety. There was a bloomberg piece but I don’t have the link at hand.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Yerk,
Yes, that is certainly a factor this week, but the TNX began its plunge several days before the Fed’s new mortgage program. See the chart here that I posted on the 18th.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Gigi - sounds good to me. Fringe countries will get interesting, too. I would not buy REITs. US property values are still behind the moon. No need to be hasty. Lots of property is worthless anyway - did you see Kailash’s post yesterday? If you still want to, play it safe and look for a place with some agricultural self-sustainability and decent public transport access.
The downturn will be faster. The crawlout longer. Society will change during the process.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Charlie,
I’m hoping that JPM, BAC, and WFC follow the same route as Citi to nationalization: a scary stock plunge followed by a Sunday bailout. That way, we get three more giant stock market crashes and rebounds to play.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Yerk,
Real estate’s advantage is that it is harder for the government to steal, but since it is still over-priced, it still isn’t a good investment. Profiting during a systemic meltdown is somewhat problematic.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Matt, thanks for the reminder. Hmmm… So the plunge started earlier. Maybe it was something else the Fed did to get this quantitative easing going.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Yerk,
The TNX breakdown was the day before Citigroup’s first big 25% dive on the 19th, so that’s why I connect the two. But last week some people were speculating that the Fed might be buying the 10-year to drive mortgage rates down.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Matt this would point to the great unraveling of the US commercial banks? Cloaked behind the quantative easing? Can only speculate, no feeling for the sums being moved and the correlations to explain the moves.
I stopped buying puts on banks a while a go as the impact of random govt interventions cannot be foreseen. I know they are toast and I know that govt will do strange things to prevent this from happening. If JPM goes belly-up all banks worldwide go belly-up. JPM is institutionalized counterparty risk.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Matt,
Do you think we retest the lows or put in a slightly higher low before this rally can launch significantly higher ? Too many people are predicting the rally upto S&P 1000. What is your view on the market for short and intermediate term ?
Thanks.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Hey Bob,
I’m not Matt.. but there is increasing evidence that we are in wave 1 of 4 up. Once that ends, there will be a wave 2 of 4 down. There of course are a many sub sub waves, but ignoring those.. if wave 1 of 4 ends soon, there will be at least a period of consolidation before we are able to resume the rally.
As with every sound rally, there needs to be pullbacks. My short term view is that the market is due for a pullback to at least consolidate. Looking at next week for that.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Happy Thanksgiving.
Gigi;
You’ve just described something physically impossible - perpetual motion. No way can the Fed spend more while getting less income and keep the kiting going forever. At some point, the dog will catch up with the tail.
I can sum up your outlook for our economic problems and outcome in two words - “We’re Screwed”.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Matt “your ability to endure pain and not barf-up is by far the most important trading skill that there is.” This is a difficult lesson to learn, but I agree!
November 27th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
For what it’s worth, Dec. 14th is a Bradley turn date.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Commercial mortgage defaults next.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Matt;
In reference to your comment, “The ‘getting paid to wait’ strategy of buying cheap stocks with good dividends is evaporating”, indicates almost all avenues of “certainty” have eroded.
Cramer is currently pushing this very strategy you mentioned to his viewers. He requires a company that has cash and at least 5% dividend.
I listened to Cramer’s audio book on my last trip. It was read by Cramer and very well done.
I now watch Cramer on a semi-regular basis because I believe he has some useful knowledge. Then again, I AM still rather ill so I take no responsibility for judgement imparity.
November 27th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Hey George,
hope you get better soon. Listening to Cramer is good so long as it is for entertainment. I watch it purely to get a good laugh sometimes
BTW.. the meltdown in Commercial Real Estate is just starting. More close to home.. I noticed that there are a lot of lookers in malls, but very few people holding bags. The deals don’t seem that great and places like Best Buy, Toys R Us are dead.. I mean dead empty…
I recently drove by a strip mall that my mom used to own. She sold it 2 years ago when it was still fully rented out. I was surprised to see 3 for lease signs out of a total of 6 spots. Also, the newer strip plaza’s aren’t doing much better as I see most that were newly built in the burbs are about 1/2 rented out.
November 27th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Yerk,
A couple of weeks ago, Meridith Whitney said that the only thing that could save the financial system was massive reflation. And this week, we began to hear the drumbeat for reflation on CNBC. I heard both Larry Kudlow and Dennis Kneale advocating reflation, and using that exact word: “reflation.”
But whatever the Fed is doing didn’t happen fast enough to save Citi, so maybe people like Engdahl and Hugh Hendry will be right and all the major banks will be rapidly nationalized, and maybe more insurance companies will join AIG in the growing zombie army. And since Berkshire Hathaway is an insurance company, maybe even Warren Buffet will be nationalized!
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Bob,
I don’t pretend to know exactly what the market will do. Right now I see an overbought market with a rising wedge pattern, so I am shorting it.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Matt, that is the gamble now. If it works you should be long, very long. I don’t see it working - I think I posted yesterday something about low interest rates and the loss of economic steering capability. Dead end.
From wikipedia “The great depression”: The Great Depression was not a sudden, total collapse. … Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. But consumers, many of whom had suffered severe losses in the stock market the previous year, cut back their expenditures by ten percent. … In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing.”
How can you reflate a system when the debtors know that they will not be able to repay the loan? Mr. Bernanke?? How about an automatic bail-out when you sign the loan???
November 27th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
George, too much hot air in system to trust anyone promising 5%. GE were pretty good at holding revenues stable, weren’t they?
November 27th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
PS: George get well before the grandmother of all bubbles, the health bubble implodes!!
November 27th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
George,
I read Cramer’s first three books a couple of years ago and learned a lot about how i-banks and hedge funds work. The main thing that sticks in my mind is that Cramer did not make his money by being a good stock picker. For example, his first major score, which paid for his law degree, was not a brilliant stock pick. Rather, one of his professors had a friend in the Justice Department and told Cramer that a large, pending merger was a done deal. Cramer loaded the boat with call options, the merger was soon approved, and Cramer made an insane amount of money.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Hey Matt.. what Cramer did.. isn’t that called insider trading?
November 27th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Yerk,
Yes, reflation triggered the giant bull market of 2003, and I am mindful of that. But it still looks like the black hole that we call the banking system is soaking up all the fresh money. The True Money Supply hasn’t budged, and last time, the market didn’t bottom until a year after the TMS shot to the moon.
I don’t see any signs that the reflation attempt is working yet. The Fed’s new program to buy MBS for houses, cars, and student loans should work better since it is bypassing the banking system, but analysts are saying that it is only a drop in the bucket. Could the Fed really replace the commercial banking system as the backer of all commercial loans?
In any case, the fact that the Fed is doing this shows that they are giving up on the banks, which is pretty profound when you think about it. It’s the Federal Reserve SYSTEM after all.
It’s taken them a long time to figure this out and we will have to see if this can grow into an alternative system, if that’s what they are intending.
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Charlie,
I don’t know, but it sure sounds like it! Maybe Cramer put it in his book because the statute of limitations ran out!
Matt
November 27th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
happy Thanksgiving, people.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Hey guys.. hope you all got some good turkey today… here is a funny link from the Big Picture on what you can buy with 1 single share of well known stocks.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/finding-holiday-uses-for-stock-shares/
November 27th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
November 27th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/
Check the headlines. Start reading the first story on Japan.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Thanks Larry,!
From the japan story…
“Today’s data is forcing me to reconsider the outlook; Japan’s recession could be more severe than the previous one,” said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “The shocking production number was the biggest disappointment.”
WOW
November 27th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Matt, mentioned Panasonic slash profit forecast by 90%.
Note this:
1. Producers of capital goods have over-invested in the boom. The overcapacity is enormous. And consumers are not buying a 3rd plasma TV or a third car or a second house or……
2. Panasonic profits down 90%. This is where analysts fail. Think about it like this.
Widgets Plc.
Revenues: 100
Costs: 90
Profit before tax: 10
Net Profit: 7
Now reduce the revenues by 3-30% in the bust period, depending on which industry you’re in. You can cut costs, but by how much? And remember, most companies are way behind the curve.
Where is your profits compared to the boom years?
How will this impact the S&P500 earnings? Which was forecast this summer at $110 for 2009. Roubini and Rosenberg now talking about $60. I think they are way too optimistic.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
i know kind of offtopic.
am reading trend following by michael covel as we speak..
saw a quote by Donald Rumsfeld…
“Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion, but they’re not entitled to their own facts”
That is what i think about all analysts that say this is the bottom. The opinions are theirs the facts are saying no way Joseeee.
ok back to reading I go.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
K, good luck in school. You must be way ahead on economic matters.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Larry,
on the investment club thanks to you guys I have been able to rise to the top. I am the official Economic Advisor.
2 weeks ago they wanted to average down a very bad mistake. BAC.
I said don;t average down loser at least not yet. I want market to hit 7500 before i’d get some.
the president talked to me last week when it hit 7500 and said i was right lol.
I am sorry if i sound cocky. But to have a class rely on your economic views is a challenge for me.
we have a morganstanley account to trade our fund and it is available to anyone to view.
user is “s m f b 0 s t 0 n”
and the pass is “h a r b 0 r s i d e”
no spaces in between and o’s for the 0’s.
https://www.morganstanleyclientserv.com/default.aspx?
Matt,
I hope you don’t mind. but the head of the college of management told me it’s fine to give out. I just hate google and the indexing
This is a nonprofit fund by the way and we welcome any generous investors. Anyone have any idea what the best way is to go about raising some capital (i know this is a bad time)
sorry for the lengthy post and enjoy the last few minutes of thanksgiving.