Selling Marshmallows While Rome Burns
Caterpillar CEO Jim Owens was on CNBC Tuesday morning preaching against the evils of protectionism. I’m sure Cat has done very well in our fabulous new global economy. Just imagine how many tractors Mexico had to buy in order to build all the infrastructure necessary to relocate the US auto industry down there.
Not-So-Docile Holiday Trading
The day before Thanksgiving last year, the market gapped down and then rallied the entire day. At 9:31am, SPY was at 84.14 and it closed at 89.04 – almost $5 higher. So, don’t think that this day can’t be eventful. Though last year the country was in the thrall of Obama Mania. This year it’s Gold Mania.
Guess who’s finally able to hit the liquor store and buy his own spiked fruit punch? !
night all i’ll get you all a cup
Happy birthday K!
early morning futes:
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.36 +0.34 +0.45
Natural Gas 4.783 +0.017 +0.36
Corn 392.00 -11.25 -2.86
Soybeans 1046.0 +4.0 +0.38
30yr Bond 121.46875 -0.0625 -0.05
10yr Note 120.09375 +0.46875 +0.39
NY Gold 1175.7 +9.9 +0.85
NY Silver 18.655 +0.161 +0.87
Emini S&P 1107.00 +4.00 +0.36
Emini Nasdaq 1792.75 +6.25 +0.35
Emini Dow 10448 +43 +0.41
Welcome to adult hood K. Now, go out and get a job and prop this economy up!
i think the date stamp here is off by an hour…
futes again:
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.4 +0.38 +0.50
Natural Gas 4.842 +0.076 +1.59
Corn 392.00 -11.25 -2.86
Soybeans 1046.0 +4.0 +0.38
30yr Bond 121.625 +0.09375 +0.08
10yr Note 120.09375 +0.46875 +0.39
NY Gold 1181.0 +15.2 +1.30
NY Silver 18.705 +0.211 +1.14
Emini S&P 1108.5 +5.5 +0.50
Emini Nasdaq 1795.00 +8.5 +0.48
Emini Dow 10428 +23 +0.22
2thfixr. isnt small business a better way to prop it?
thanks yerk.
wow talk about fruit punch. someone spiked it while i slept
Gold 1180
A Keynesian recovery is under way.
tempted to add more GLD puts…way out of the money though…already have some dec101′s
looking at nas 1799 / 1808 to add nas shorts…
VXX is slip slidin’ away…
I just reset the blog clock.
SPY has been consolidating for 11 days now. Here’s a daily with BBs.
I’ll look for a breakout and I’ll expect the first one to be false.
With my daughter’s funds, I’m only trying to stay on the right side of the market. I’m not interested in tops and bottoms until after the fact – then I make my move. I’m using my entry/exit methods but I’m trying to find out if I can be more efficient.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=442a93ad-c12c-4228-ae2d-b5ce3747bd6f
George Says:
November 25th, 2009 at 9:10 AM I’m not interested in tops and bottoms until after the fact
GEORGE..what ?? you dont want to catch top tick like bob prechter?
Nice chart George. Today has a bias to the downside so far.
XLP is negative.
coolaid is finishing.
SKF filled its morning’s gap – obligation fulfilled.
K, XLY/XLP ratio (thanks Dr. Brett Steenbarger) shows a hot market.
George, Zune will make an excellent stocking stuffer. However, since it’s msft you would think it supported Silverlight – not from my research.
short position is slowly increasing as promised..
25% short on the 25th is complete.
SRS nearing its intraday opening down gap.
Wonder if SPY will give me $5 today?
I guess there’s no way to know which way this consolidation will break out, just wait for it to happen. Since I expect SKF to be a teenager, I would vote for up. It’s right at the 50% level and Joe Sixpack sees this market going up and will participate.
On the other hand, if there are red streaks, it will be another Market Myth Miff.
i didnt follow my rule #1. never trade between 9:30 and 10:30 unless scalping. ahhhh
Mitch,
You’re correct about Zune and Silverlight. Seems most of the hand held’s don’t have that, or Flash. There is a Lite version of Flash on Pocket PC and Android (I think). It is a bandwidth concern as most sites use those for advertisements and such.
K, why do you have that rule – not trading at a certain period of time? Curious. Tks
Mitch,
There are legit sites that need Flash like Camtasia Studio for videos. I believe they should block all Flash unless specifically requested by the user, then that would solve a lot of issues. The other problem “they” have with Flash, Java, Silverlight, etc. is because those are executables and therefore can be hacked.
Meanwhile, I would expect those stocks involved to at least get a good boost the next few months.
SKF 15min MACD trendlines are resting on the zero level. I’ll be looking for them to bounce off that area. May not, but something to consider.
George, because at that time is when the trend develops. I can’t find the link anymore sorry but it was a helpful one. (as you know i skim 500+ articles a day so things pass by quickly)
You’d think that financials would be going through the roof with zero interest. What’s going to happen when rates are raised?
Scraped .16c out of BBT. While dip-buying is still in vogue on the underlying, I’m waiting on K’s reversal.
George,
Thanks. I saw that Netflix has a deal with Silverlight for streaming online movies. With Zune having 720p hdmi this is just hot potential. No Silverlight on the Zune makes a download required, which is fine.
My DVD player gave up the ghost so a Zune could be in order. I could avoid entirely the scratched DVD issue and have portable media to boot.
Man, I’m excited about turkey day. I saw much longer lines at the local soup kitchen. My heart goes out to the dispossessed around the world this year. There are more than we may realize. Some would gladly put hand to plow but are prohibited.
K, I see. All of the wish-wash has to be gotten out of the way before a base is established. Makes sense.
I’ve been trying to keep up with the proposed “Trader’s Tax” bill being batted around on the Hill. Now it’s up to $150bln revenue “they” are wanting.
Here’s Cramer’s take on this issue:
http://tinyurl.com/yh3f7op
George, are “they” the same “they” that guard executables and employ “sniffer” code and such?
Yesterday 64 of 100 NDX were negative near the close. Presently, (ever changing) 88 of 100 are positive. That’s not sustainable but shows the traction.
Mitch,
I don’t believe in Conspiracies, however, I do believe in well-intended blunders.
“They” are the decision-makers “for” the masses who do not properly represent their constituents, which we’ve seen a lot of lately.
This is madness
sitting on bid for more gld 101 dec puts,
nas100not high enough at this minute for me to add more shorts…
best wishes..
Larry, your 11:55am, lol
Larry,
Except for exceeding yesterday’s highs, SPY hasn’t done anything except an extended correction left over from yesterday. Wait until this inverse counter finishes and it will say a lot.
Larry,
I would be riding huge losses had I held my short gold position. Jumping the gun comes with a terrible lashing! Glad you are on the risk side. Certain logic applies when investing and I have been illogical, shortsighted, and just plain fooled.
Mitch
I lost electricity from 3:15 to 4:15 yesterday. My battery backup can keep me going for 2+ hours with the laptops but I have to kill my extra monitors and desktop. It worked out great. For extended periods of time, I use an inverter hooked to the battery of my car. That can keep me going until the gas runs out.
Can’t be without my Internet… just sayin’
you are crazy George!!
The “A” team told the “B” team to keep price within a certain range until they return Monday. They’re doing a good job.
Still a couple of juicy gaps down below.
XLP back in red. come on baby burn!!!
today’s open was right at the trendline since the march low…. just FYI if we close red today the trendline will once again be resistance
I got a Tres Cruzar on SKF just before noon. The 30min stochastic is positive so it could be a keeper.
I also got that on SRS around the same time.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
String
Hey, Stringm! You too. Are you going to fry a turkey or bake it?
Smokin two birds, one to give to my sister.
i got me some fresh baked apple pies! have never tasted a real good one before. hmm apple pie or birthday cake. which to have first.
Happy merry birth-thanking day K!
I’m liking SRS here about the same as I liked UNG last week.
Thanks Mitch,
Tick is mostly negative and XLP is still negative.
tricky, might it be they serve bulls for thanksgiving? dax has hit 5825 five times over the last weeks, today was a double-top there, so some retracement should be expected. Wild card is the dollar…
today’s SRS pickup gained me $1 in total profits lol which means it was a good move!!
Way to go Jim, UNG had a nice bounce today, but does the trend now change or more pain ahead? My smallish position in GMXR got a nice bump today. I also like SRS, but do not trust making a trade until Friday…as Larry says “madness” still reigns and we could be in for another nasty upside surprise.
happy Thanksgviing all…
You too After. Is there good skiing around you yet?
K, WTG on your buck profit! Now get a turkey. No soup though.
nop. i’m waiting for my dom perignon!
thanks George. ended up being a buck fifty.
have a good day tomorrow.!!
You too, K… have a nice Thanksgiving. Buck fifty is awesome: You have reason to be thankful.
Matt:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayjbry3_aYMs&pos=12
no carbon tax down there-just lots of money that needs some place to go
Mitch, rainy today but a nice November weather wise otherwise, no snow yet in toronto…
hmm, logged into ino.com, see this for futures:
—careful on the dow , when i clicked for detail it showed -110
hmm, are these correct ?
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 77.08 -0.72 -0.93
Natural Gas 5.135 -0.015 -0.29
Corn 408.00 +16.00 +3.92
Soybeans 1054.5 +8.5 +0.81
30yr Bond 122.5 +0.25 +0.20
10yr Note 120.46875 +0.375 +0.31
NY Gold 1184.3 -9.7 -0.81
NY Silver 18.495 -0.39 -2.07
Emini S&P 1096.75 -12 -1.08
Emini Nasdaq 1776.75 -17.25 -0.96
Emini Dow 10337 -11 -0.11
probably are correct, found this headline:
Dubai debt default fears spill into world markets
They are serving bulls this Thanksgiving – futures visited 1092
after,
I checked Google News and that story is front-page. Nice catch.
Thanks
Happy Thanksgiving Matt & Company!
looks like the candles blown around the world really worked!
enjoy the red guys cause it’s my favorite color!
well, Dubai was in the news yesterday. I’d go for the double-top spike in the futures in Asian trading as explanation, confirming the spike during European trading the night before… 1085 is the area to watch.
The London Stock Exchange has been beset all morning by technical problems, but is resuming trading at 2PM local time.
We can only assume some mischief-making American really couldn’t stand the idea of workin on Thanksgiving.
higher low @ 1085.5 – let’s see what the retest does
futes as of 10:20, red ink here:
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.55 -1.25 -1.61
Natural Gas 5.15 0 0.00
Corn 408.00 +16.00 +3.92
Soybeans 1054.5 +8.5 +0.81
30yr Bond 122.75 +0.5 +0.41
10yr Note 120.46875 +0.375 +0.31
NY Gold 1185.6 -8.4 -0.70
NY Silver 18.52 -0.365 -1.93
Emini S&P 1088.00 -20.75 -1.87
Emini Nasdaq 1759.25 -34.75 -1.94
Emini Dow 10294 -153 -1.46
K Says:
November 20th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
I’m going short on nov 25.
———————
Jackpot!
K,
Your day of reckoning was the beginning day by the looks of it.
Dom Perignon vintage 2000 is in the house!!! it’s almost a buck fifty if you move the decimal to the left 2 places
i dont have a heart to open it. the box alone is so sophisticated! lol
K Says:
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:57 pm
in the upcoming 4 weeks we will see spx have quite a few days of explosive moves down by about 30-40 pts. deadline for this is off course christmas when santa delivers final blow down the chimney.
—————————————————————
INO.com shows the futures -23.75 at 1085.
seems like this is explosion number 1 in this fragile equity market.
Nice work K.
The futures will be eating their turkey (or is it steaks?) until 5pm Chicago time.
Matt
No problem, the Fed will close the markets if there is too much of a stampede. Hmm, is that what happened to London?
What I meant was that the futures are closed for Thanksgiving now, and that the CME in Chicago will open for business again at the usual 6pm EST.
George do you think there might be a stampede ?
Toronto’s xiu.to down 1.49 % today, index fund…
I got my 32″ tv yesterday at the black friday price!! LOL boy retailers are really willing to negotiate!
i wont name who but yeah i’m evading the dash thanks to desperate retailers.
Happy Turkey Day to all. Glad to see the RED finally showing up. I’m going to be busy tomorrow (Friday), but I have sell rules programmed already.
Push the NDX down to 1720, will ya?
Vietnam, currency crisis. It reads as a re-print from spring of 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aSLdIQHPaIXc&pos=13