On November 23rd, I posted a weekly gold chart with a Fractal Dimension Index showing that gold’s trend was “long in the tooth.” And the trend did indeed come to an end. Look at how low the FDI was (at the blue “X” in the lower right corner) back then (click chart to enlarge):
And now, by contrast, oil is giving an “end of range” signal. Look at how high the FDI is (blue arrow) on this USO weekly chart:
So, from a weekly perspective, oil is primed to begin a new trend soon, and at the moment, it looks like it may be a downtrend.
On Wednesday night, I wrote: “the Fractal Dimension Index on USO’s daily chart is only down to 1.49, indicating that the trend is not yet mature.” And USO did continue to drop more on Thursday and Friday. Here is the daily chart:
The FDI has only dropped to 1.45 (blue arrow), so there is more “fractal room” on the downside. USO is testing its 200-day moving average now (green line and green arrow). If that doesn’t hold, then the September 25 swing-low (purple arrow) is the next support level. Of course, bearish action on the daily chart, doesn’t guarantee a bearish outcome on the weekly chart.
Thanks to Phil for the “yelling” quote. I have added the full expression to the quotes database: “When you are crying you should be buying; When you are yelling you should be selling.”
Here we go!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/italian-prime-minister-berlusconi-attacked-rally-milan
Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi Attack At Milan Rally Condemned As “Act Of Terrorism”
K,
His body guards will be out of business.
i was watching an italian station and they said the aggressor seemed to be mentally ill for the past 10 years i believe.
i havent bothered to google this story is just i love translating it myself from broken italian that I know.
lol if he was mentally ill he at least found the right guy to hit.
ahh as usual i’m faster than bloomberg. or should I say zerohedge is
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a8tolH5GxB88
Wow Paula, I am very, very surprised that professional traders would have remnants in their portfolios from S&P 1400+ hanging around. I understand they have positions taken this year (shorts, etc…) that they would be taking tax losses on, but long term losses? Astounding.
Thanks for the Dubai info, that may be the catalyst needed to break the rectangle to the downside.
Nice work on the USO Matt. Thanks for sharing. According to my UUP chart posted nearly 10 days ago, we still have room for the dollar to strengthen more to qualify as a wave 4 (likely anything above $22.82 this week would break the Wave 3 channel on a weekly chart of UUP).
NY Yankees will hire the bottle thrower to pitch next year.
K,
I had a big post written about suggestions for your Presidency as Money Manager and lost it. Blah
I’m getting sequestered to finish decorating the tree and if time permits, I’ll redo it.
Suffice it to say that capital preservation along with nibbles (jump in and out for short-term profits) or long-term indicators are the ticket depending upon your goals.
would appreciate your long post george.
Next time write into a notepad first or just email me straight up.
go decorate i just finished here lol
GOLD
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2606/4182115157_9d2618f6f3_o.png
Wow K, that is quite the bearish divergence on that MACD! It looks like you are using some slightly different parameters that the standard 12, 26, 9–but moving averages are all relative anyway. Do you still have your DZZ based upon that chart?
i still have dzz with a stop loss of a buck below fridays price. that stop loss is in case am not around to sell before. i was looking for $200 drop in gold and still al. but getting $100 since my calling the top is amazing. 17% gain in DZZ aint something bad
btw thats not my chart sorry i forgot where i got it. i have a lot of tabs open sometimes
notice that chart is hinting for higher highs somewhat.
aussie market is down. Hong Kong opens in 90 minutes.
Windows 7 has one cool feature in terms of gadgets. it lets you move them anywhere on the screen. Besides my Countrie’s clock i have 3 more for the major markets out there. hovering over reveals the date
http://i46.tinypic.com/2eoyxxv.png
speaking of clock seems like Matt’s blog is 1hr behind again
Greenshoots~!!
From the WSJ: Fairfield Files for Chapter 11
Fairfield, which has built some 64,000 apartments, condominiums and off-campus student-housing units throughout the country, failed amid an inability to refinance debt or sell investment properties.
Their main two lenders were Wachovia (now part of Wells Fargo) and Capmark Financial (now in bankruptcy). This is also another hit to a Morgan Stanley real estate fund and others
wsj article.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704121504574594474244928190.html
just FYI on the fund i will run
The Fund has, as its primary objective, investment in domestic equities.
a. Equity securities of USA domestic firms are the primary investment vehicle of this program
b. “Domestic Equities” may include common and preferred stocks of domestic firms, REITs and
mutual Funds.
c. While not the primary investment, from time to time and according to efficient allocation
procedures, it may be appropriate to invest in domestic debt securities, either corporate or
governmental. But such allocation must not exceed 10 percent of the total value of the portfolio.
d. ADRs, if appropriate, and if in compliance with the terms of Section VII below, may also be
appropriate.
So paula,
I guess i can pile up in 1-2 winners it seems as long as its not corporate debt
What just happened? Dow Futures were down but are now up 75 pts along with everything else.
Check CNBC site. Govt of Abu Dhabi to fund $10 B Dubai world debt.
thanks
yup yup here’s the press release
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/anu-dhabi-agrees-fund-10-billion-dubai-world-debt
that was the BEST WAY to keep the support in the hourly chart LOL
amazing. but of course i did warn earlier today with the gold chart that it’s signaling a higher high