I was surprised to learn that the Taliban only has 25,000 fighters. Story here.
Mutual funds are still bleeding from the eyeballs. In the latest week, outflows increased again for funds that invest in US stocks (“Domestic” in that table). I have been tracking this data since they began the weekly reports several months ago, and this is the worst outflow since the March bottom, though it is nowhere near the outflows at that time so far. Heavy outflows often signify a bottom as the public panics, but it’s hard to say what “heavy” is. Was the March plunge a once-in-a-lifetime event? Or is that the standard now?
Interesting. I thought funds mostly stayed invested. They may be getting more active with their trading as most believe “buy and hold” may not work as well any longer.
K,
You’re not a “Freak” – “Investing Freak”, yes, and that’s a handle I’d be proud of.
George,
Maybe, but if they are getting redemptions, then they have no choice but to sell.
Matt
haha George,
Thanks!
It really feels different from 2 years ago when I was barely used to this. Now i see a pattern and I almost know what it will do,
nothing too big will happen in the coming days.
(except gdp thursday lol)
IBD had an interesting piece on the GDP reaction anticipated on Thursday. Page A6 on the 27th, if anyone is a subscriber. Much of the article was devoted to the dollar carry trade and what will happen Thursday if the GDP comes in below expectations. The gist of the article was that some traders were unwinding their dollar shorts on Monday prior to the GDP report.
Daneric’s charts were interesting from the 27th too. Lots of food for thought in them. I found page 3 very interesting overall. He’s targeting 1052 (as soon as Wednesday) as a Fib bottom from the 1101 top. George’s triangle also targets that area of around 1050.
Since the top, SPY hasn’t left behind any unfilled gaps. I’m not sure what to make of this, but here are some possibilities:
1) The selling is not serious.
2) The selling has been managed by the big funds – “distribution.”
3) A giant ugly gap lurks ahead.
Cast your vote!
dax flirting with implosion here… would lead to 3). If 2) applies, we should have a bounce today for an orderly process.
futures down in the 1053 range.
if this hour closes below 1054.63 we will have broken S1 and moved onto S2 at 1049.44
Pivot point where things could turn bullish is 1062.19
Australia’s biggest lender National Australian Bank posted a surprise loss, which was amazingly the first banking loss since the global financial crisis began.
Among the surprises overnight: enterprise software SAP (SAP) cut its outlook on reduced demand (no really, they did), a shocking announcement at this point in the cycle. One wonders how much competitive pressure from Oracle (ORCL) has to do with it.
Apple pitches tablet as e-reader to Australian media – report
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/10/27/apple_pitches_tablet_as_e_reader_to_australian_media_report.html
just fyi before am done. we’re now at 1055 so that’s a bounce at S1 if it keeps up.
hahah
Schwarzenegger Says F*** You To California Legislature
http://www.businessinsider.com/schwarzenegger-says-f-you-to-california-legislature-2009-10
Matt, I actually think we might tag the low of 1052 or 1050 we have predicted off George’s Triangle and then head upwards again. Trap all those Jim Cramer shorts and SQUEEZE them mercilessly back up to 1100.
Off to work. Good luck and good trading to all!
Update on Intraday Death Cross. (I hope these multiple views work)
Here’s the 15min Death Cross (50MA crosses 200MA).
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d4a8a390-4a5d-4917-bb65-cbbe02925535
Now look at the 5min Death Cross. Notice it is about one day earlier than the 15min. Also note that although price on SSO dropped $2, the stochastic/MACD swings (not shown) would have gained $5 trading SSO/SDS.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f0c0865e-7adb-4819-aac3-3601122e2862
This is a good example of cycles within cycles. Check out the 15min with stochastic and MACD indicators:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d4cdb164-796f-4a8c-801c-0528b535d59b
Funny Boston Metro headline
NY’S Dr.Doom: The recession is over
Even though the article itself says that it aint over. Lol
Matt, I don’t know if gaps will be created, but my vote would be yes.
Here’s a chart of SPY 30min with an unfilled gap-up:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=74536a1b-4289-4b51-9ffa-09130a31c116
George,
Yes, the market has found support at the October 6th gap, more or less, so far.
Matt
I was thinking it would crash through that gap and possible create a down-gap doing it.
BOUGHT initial position of TBT @46.49……
SPY price below daily 36MA. Stochastic is down to 20. It’s been here before and always recovered. SPY weekly MACD trendlines starting to pinch but not closed. The weekly MACD could kick up from here if the daily catches support off the stochastic.
2th FIXER…..if TBT goes to ZERO i will be the happiest man alive…get it?
Shorts will cover soon.
For the past 3 days, SRS = MOOooo.
At 9:35, I meant the October 8th gap. I was thinking of the IWM down at its October 6th gap. So, the small caps are one step ahead of the large caps on the way down. SPY is right at its 10/8 gap now. If that doesn’t hold, then the 10/6 gap that George showed on his chart, would be the next potential support level. That’s 104.06 for SPY.
BOUNCE came from 45 d sma of SPX where last rally began
Matt,
Unlike SPY, IWM did not make a higher high in mid October. Is it leading us down? (Short term bounces aside.)
Speaking of bounces, BIDU back up to ~$400. Made a paper trade on the Nov $400 call yesterday morning. Sold most too early, but that is how we learn.
Phil,
Are we all dead if TBT goes to zero?
Secret trendline got touched at 1056 so we’ll see. Either we will bounce or crash. This would be first time if that trendline from march is broken.
Later
Tops/bottoms here.
Hank,
Yes, the Russell 2000 is certainly leading the way down of the major indexes. The leading sector, by far, is the XME, far worse than the IWM. The inverse ETF for the XME is the SMN, which you may have heard K talking about recently.
Matt
HANK…no we wont be dead but my treasuries would be worth beaucoup bucks …lol
Ready to break 1050 and 575 R2
Here’s the SPY daily with its gap. Sorry if this is a repeat.
http://i38.tinypic.com/6zqzyd.jpg
Matt,
WOW! The XME has traded with the EEM, on the way up. It is leading the EEM on the way down. BTW the SMN is a double inverse.
Yeah, I have heard K talk about quite a few things recently. :-O
Consumer staples (XLP), are up on the day, and utilities (XLU) and health care (XLV) are close. So, traders are shifting into defensive names, rather than panicking into T-bills like last year. Then again, in the 1987 crash it took three days for the panic to build.
Allthough the S&P looks D.O.A. just sold my sso puts and will get back in if we retrace to 1060
SCOTTY…….not SCARY enough yet?????????????
i still favor that this is a SCARY C wave but it must turn soon or as i said before ….. its BIG trouble
Scotty, WTG.
phil,
Where would the most likely turn point be?
Matt,
Do you know why xlp and xlu are up? Because they are K’s sectors. I think PG reports today or tomorrow and I have a feeling they will beat the street.
I recomended xlp to the club at 25 but they didn’t listen.
TRENDLINE around 1048 http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/Sug4ZFYQDrI/AAAAAAAAA98/8bHPhr9FowU/s1600-h/Daily+Indicator.png
SPY 30min looks like an inverted cup-n-handle. I guess that’s legit?
phil,
Great. Thanks. I’ll watch that.
Excellent timing, Scotty.
K, that silly club of yours never listens to you.
George..WTG?
Time will tell,seems like everyone is saying crash,if we break 1040 I will go short..until then im will watch
Scotty, you sold your SSO puts.
None of the major ETF’s are close to making a 9/36/15 cross-up, and all of them are below their VWAP’s, except for SMH, which just clawed it’s way above.
FIBS for oct 2 wave http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/spx602.png
yes George
GEORGE…..if 1048 fails to hold we will have to see …..as this could be the first wave down in a new downtrend it is tricky….i am not going to tell Ms market what to do…….SHE will tell me
If stupid train doesn’t come soon I will be mad. Missed NXTH this morning blahhhh
Yes matt they are silly. My group recommended PG with a lot of positives and all they could argue is why not go with JNJ! Lol of course I simply stated that JNJ missed earnings.
Ok so if we close below 1056/ today on SPX. The longest trendline of them all will have a hole which will cause major leakage!!!
My TED spread blog post last night was another timely post
Hope to start trading after lunch time although my positions are being good to me (SMN for example
)
Don’t need no doctored up GDP numbers to trigger a short covering rally and wipe out all my gains.Would rather be a pig than a hog
QQQQ is close to making a bearish Three Amigas on its weekly chart. How’s that for a bad omen?
That’s bad cause I no longer have my QQQQ puts lol
SPX around 61% FIB on your chart phil, maybe support here.
A shallow 23.6% retracement of the March-to-October rally would be 998 for the SPX.
Intraday tops nearing.
Julie and I already agreed to sell you the S&P at a 985 discount. I wanted 990 of course but she wanted 980.
What are you guys trading today that’s under 9 bucks?
K, do you think we will at least get to -77 DOW today? Too much to wish for -777. Those days may be over.
K,
I’ve been in SRS, URE and UYG if it ever sets up, SRS is $10 right now but was $9+ a couple of days ago.
Tempted to buy some gdx here. Please, somebody talk me out of it!!
JIM NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
(did that help?)
K, Thanks.
1047 might be ok for SPX and of course we know 1040 will be fun if it gets there. I might play some longs but don’t really see it.
XLP is now only up 0.04%. Panic may be developing.
MADE IT! DOW -79.
on the daily 1047 is the 50EMA so should boost it up some.
for thew second time My C puts are up another 100%
NOw if the DOW can make +79, this will be an excellent day.
BOO, AAPL 193. Hiss, hiss.
There’s only been short, short-covering thus far. Waiting on the big one whilst skimming the cream off the milk.
Today has the look and feel of a downtrend today, however, the missing ingredient is an emphatic down-gap. In fact, only QQQQ and XME even have down gaps, and they are garden-variety.
OTOH, this could be how the big funds are trying to fool us. They bid stocks up near the open to prevent any scary gaps, and then distribute to all the traders playing for a reversal.
Yup geroge but know that i will be adding shorts as we go up from here on
I have my target average ins
we’ll go up around 7-10 points from here.
Can’t blame this drop on the moon being full.
Unloaded an obscene number of shares in SRS.
MOOooo
cashed in my XLF 15 nov put and my C 4 nov put
MOOO you too
haha, I’ll add “Oink”
XLP has bounced, and is up 0.35% now, but still the only green sector. XLU is second at -0.03%. So, no wholesale panic yet.
Looks like the 2 o’clock retracement has come an hour early.
GO SPY! That 30 min gap was filled. SPY bumping up against 5min 36MA.
I would care less. I had new buy orders set for SRS SDS and SMN to average up LOL. I hope we rally before GDP so they can fall enough to my limit buys
I can’t believe im doubling up as I usually would sell winners.
Shorts may cover about 50% of the move down. I hope.
if SPY gains a buck i will have a lot of respect then kill it after I’m in more
come on come on!
get it? SPY on the cow to eat some more green then slaughter it and get it all back?
Don’t expect the market to rally anytime soon.
Goldman Sachs has gone and cut GDP growth estimate down to 2.7%:
Dow Jones/WSJ: Ahead of Thursday’s U.S. gross domestic product numbers, Goldman Sachs cut its third-quarter GDP estimate to 2.7%, following lower-than-expected durable-goods shipments Wednesday morning.
The estimate, calculated on an annual basis, is down from the 3% Goldman previously expected.
I got Tres Cruzars on the inverse shortly after 1PM. I don’t expect them to go far unless they turn the 30 or 60min stochastic up, or MACD for that matter.
Or another way to judge that is there respective time frame resistance MAs.
“their” respective time frames.
Hey George, I hear you on SRS, I loaded the boat last week at $9.50, dumped half my position at $10.50 this AM.
Randall, Nice!
YEah, at around $10.50, the 5min MACD had turned down and crossed. I got out shortly after that on the stochastic.
There could be more uppage, but I’ll wait for another setup before getting in again – unless I scalp it.
Nicely done, Randall!
I’m coining a new phrase “Big Enough to Fail”
remember the roller coasters have a limit on height to get on and ride it? well K the Soup Natzi is putting restrictions on banks “You must be this big to fail”.
I got SRS at 9.66 last week. not dumping it just waiting to grab more at 10.20.
Check out Apollo Group
APOL!! 
loving the volatility
MAN, I messed up, I meant to say I got a Tres Cruzar on SPY, NOT the inverse.
Shame on me.
GEORGE trendline now http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/Suh0e_6-wJI/AAAAAAAAA_E/cxHYLRd8zxs/s1600-h/Daily+Indicator.png
if the QQQQ can bounce here, then it may be forming an inverted H&S on its 15-minute chart. Doesn’t look promising though…
let’s make a fresh low now
Hey Guys,
Just found this site, great community you have here.
Double bottom on the 1-min SPX chart?
No You didn’t Jim.
did you want to get into gdx too? STOP confusing me or I will crush the SPX right now!
for those of you and towlie that made a great point about cnbc ratings. here ya go
http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbcs-ratings-drop-doesnt-mean-much-2009-10
SPX S3 is at 1043.72