I was surprised to learn that the Taliban only has 25,000 fighters. Story here.
Mutual funds are still bleeding from the eyeballs. In the latest week, outflows increased again for funds that invest in US stocks (“Domestic” in that table). I have been tracking this data since they began the weekly reports several months ago, and this is the worst outflow since the March bottom, though it is nowhere near the outflows at that time so far. Heavy outflows often signify a bottom as the public panics, but it’s hard to say what “heavy” is. Was the March plunge a once-in-a-lifetime event? Or is that the standard now?
Jim,
See if you can post with a differentiated name so that you are not mistaken for the original Jim.
Matt
XLP in the red Matt,
Runnnnnnnnnnnnn
Matt, Thanks, Original Jim
SPY 5-minute chart may have a bullish three-drives pattern, sort of.
SPY is trying to make a Three Amigos on its 5-minute chart. Film in 3 minutes.
K,
XLP is defying you.
Matt
On the contrary Matt,
I would love it to go green
I will take over as VP much smoother if I’m right on staples and PG and then i’ll jump on the Presidential Post.
Spoke too soon. Down goes XLP!
The market really needs to make some sort of bounce here, even a feeble one. The daily charts are starting to look like the Identical Three Crows crash pattern, which I said to be on the lookout for last week:
http://www.trivisonno.com/thursdays-trading-102209
without XLP position our fund is down 2.3% since Oct 8 while S&P is down 1%. Sucks for em!
oh we’ll bounce to 1052 just wait 10 more minutes when 3:30 hits
Three crows and counting. 3:30 will be telling.
am still looking for 1043.72 before bounce though
You called it right K, normally I would have stayed all in with SRS but I still think there is some more juice to the upside in this mkt, one last rally attempt before we go boom, er maybe kaboom! If not, I still have half my position left to let runnnn…
This market looks cooked,should held on to my puts.
nice Randall.
I plan on adding up my position up to 3 times on the way up. I just missed this morning levels due to school. (yeah yeah George, I know your education idea LOL)
Oops, that’s (K)aboom!
scotty. No regrets man. if you think there is more downside go in again.
I covered my puts but they were financial only missed out on $5 so far
I love it Randall! we might have K- aboomed with that low of 1044.64 (close enough to 1043.72.) Let’s se if there’s any dead cats bouncing here.
here’s how a dead cat bounce should look like
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FixLjdbiMEI/SoY-f_XLXuI/AAAAAAAAAIk/CKVXipEGvIo/s400/dead+cat+bounce.jpg
Ps: Hey GS get in there with the dark pool of money and prop up SPX for me to 1052!!
K have no idea which way we go,cannot see a bounce anymore,tide has changed.I would imagine we go down,I will wait for GDP tomorrow if bad and we plunge 950 is my next play.
damn SPX stop flirting with my pivot level. “Hit that” then bounce out of there~.
thats close enough to tapping!
as I speak it’s at 1043.87 low
Hey K were we going to bounce? gonna put in a buy for Dec SSO strike $25.Buy now or tomorrow at 10:00?
i’m buying is soon. thanks for the heads up scotty!
The ES’s 10/6/09 gap is at 1037. I recommend a bounce there. The futures cannot crack that gap just now.
well i am not sure if i will buy. i put $35 limit so if we bounce a bit here as i hoped then yeah.
Here comes 1043,any support,down 7 out of last 9 days
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/VIX%2010.28.jpg
I am no longer interested in SSO. 1052 come to papa
SSO highest volume since 07/31/09…need a bounce
The October 6th gap level has held for the futures. However, the October 8th gap only lasted as support for one day on Monday. Maybe we will have a day of consolidation here, and then another plunge to the October 2nd low of 1015 on the ES.
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/10/based-on-this-setup-spy-has-always.html
SPY dropped heavily below the daily 36MA, I would think it would want to back-test that area at some point.
SPY trying to make an inverted H&S on the 1-minute chart.
SPY’s H&S attempt is smashed. Now it needs to attempt a double bottom.
Matt, with the weekly mutual funds data I get an r² of 0,80 for the foreign equities to the spx’s next week close (it is like 0,60 for the monthly data). Too bad the data comes with a longer delay to be useful. Almost perfect clarity of hindsight there – all other data series are not correlated to the spx. Let’s figure out why the foreign investors are determining the direction of the market…
bulls should begin to show up here. GS lowering the expectations one day before the official data release – we’ve had that little game already this month.
1030′s in 4 mins then? Goldman musta run out of money
We are going to break $46 million on SSO,takes us back to early June,this market is like a drunk wobbling on 1 leg in a sobriety test
IT IS OFFICIAL
Secret chart is broken. Lets begin the deflation of the balloon.
45m didn’t quite make it
I missed buying some PG calls lost track of time lol.
scotty did you get SSO puts?
In July 2008 there were persistent rumors of a bank run at WaMu. According to a fascinating piece by Kirsten Grind at the Puget Sound Business Journal, the bank run was more than a rumor …
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/report-wamu-bank-run-rumors-were-true.html
SPY has still not left behind an overhead gap. However this weak close puts an “echo gap” over its October 6th gap in play. If SPY opens below 104.05 Thursday morning, that would be very, very bearish.
The 4:15pm close of the futures was at 1038.50, which is really tempting fate. The number to watch overnight is the bottom of the October 6th gap for the ES at 1037.00. Any “price discovery” below that level will likely prove to be bad news for the bulls.
Matt, where is that SPY gap?
George,
Two comments up – 104.05.
Matt
Did you see how the XLP was the key today? It’s not a market leader, but it did show that some traders were thinking that sector rotation would be a good idea today. When it turned red, as K pointed out, it was time to head for the hills because it showed that a selling frenzy was taking hold.
Ah, sorry, I was looking at SPX that closed a small gap today at the 1057 area.
its very bad news for the bulls that the ling term trend line got broken.
George,
Yes, that was the October 8th gap that provided support yesterday.
Matt
XLP aside here’s something on PG options which I almost executed
http://tinyurl.com/yhae2j5
OK, SPX had a gap down at the 1084 area. I’m not sure how an index affects price movement but I always check it to see what’s happening.
I swear, K, if you can understand what that guy is talking about you really are hip to the market.
Staples are only 11% of the S&P while financials and tech combined are 35% so you can take a guess what drove market down today
George,
If you look at SPY at that same moment, you won’t see a gap. That’s because SPY trades continuously, and the SPX is only calculated every so often. I don’t know what the interval is.
Gaps are all about price discovery, so I think it’s better to look at something that trades, like a stock or ETF, rather than an index that is calculated at an arbitrary interval.
So, in that SPX gap, SPY conducted price discovery, and there should be no emotional residue left in the minds of traders from that period. And that level should not be significant in the future.
Matt
I took a picture of my setup with my iPhone. Now if I can figure how to get it onto my computer, I’ll link it to the blog.
First, I gotta go to the gym and pump some iron (5 lbs
. I’m no Arnold, but I’ll be back.
Matt, that’s good information and I needed that. I’ve often wondered about the role of the indexes.
Thanks
George,
Gotta join ‘em somehow so gotta be hip lol
here’s what you need to know
PG options activity is starting to pick up, especially on the call front. Some 40,000 of these bullishly oriented contracts have changed hands on PG today.
Basically saying investors/speculators are expecting PG to beat estimates and climb 3-6 bucks lol. aka 5-10% gain.
ok here I am updating my RIMM device with the new software version. I swear if it crashes my Blackberry I’m switching to a cracked iphone.
also judging from the chart i’ve been watching…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p50371284101
PG really has more upside than downside and I will buy any dips to the 56 area if i see the earnings as positive on a personal level.
Have a 2 page report prepared by me and my Team for anyone interested but so far I have no intentions to throw it out there.
K,
Nice stuff about PG. I believe knowing all of those fundamentals and other technical knowledge is an advantage. All information helps.
I hope your RIMM works. As far as the iPhone, it doesn’t need to be jail broken to do about anything you want. There are even ways around its native inability to play Flash. However, Yes, you can get an iPhone and take it to Verizon and they will “unlock” it so it can use their service. I wish I had known that before we got ours. But I’m a happy camper.
I have tmobile
but yeah the update was a disappointment as it is for the desktop software.
I am now starting not to believe the call news as there’s more PG puts than usual even though calls are traded more.
anyways George and all let’s take a breather from a fun day.
hehe!!
Disclaimer: Bear in bind, this is unsupported beta software. Do not install unless you know what you are doing. If you load this, and your BlackBerry stops functioning, you have no one but yourself to blame. Not RIM, not your network operator nor I will be able to help you! Also, if you have a company Blackberry, loading this may violate your corporate IT policy and could get you fired!
Do I dare install hrmm
http://www.businessinsider.com/financial-stocks-destroyed-2009-10
Better buy MOT the are releasing Android soon with Verizon
I’m on tredmill trying to type
Great Call on BKX Matt,
http://www.trivisonno.com/bkx-hs
George,!
Get off the god damn phone! run faster instead!
they released it today i believe LOL. gonna suck cause it aint iphone killer
Thanks K.
Also, it’s important to note that the BKX has overshot the H&S target. And George’s triangle has also overshot its target. That’s extra bearish action.
Matt
Yup and my super secret long trendline has been overshot so we’re the 3 bears here. Of course am sure JG’s SGA has fired a few shots too.
in other news.
Norway has become the first country to announce it is raising its interest rate by 0.25% and has signaled it anticipates steeper increases over the next three years as “inflation accelerates and unemployment remains low.
haha now i realize why my GS buddies didnt step the game up.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/oops-goldman-sachs-gs-cracks-under-50-day-average/
the thing to keep in mind is … as i posted a while ago Kurtz knows exactly what is going on, so why did he of all possible culprits rock the boat today to see the minions running for the exits? Kurtz might be drawing falling wedges as we are just barely in the range the minions were expecting. If we are to break it – uh-oh.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ge-on-10-day-losing-streak-2009-10
no idea how useful these links are but here goes
http://www.onlineschools.org/2009/10/22/100-best-blogs-for-future-investors/
GE – not much of a stock price for what used to be the largest corporation in the world.