On my market scorecard, I have Tuesday market as “bullish consolidation.” The market unwound the extreme internal readings of Monday without giving up any ground. If the IWM and XLF join the rally, watch out. We’ll be at 1121 in two shakes of lamb’s tail.
Of course, there is the matter if the bearish harami candlesticks that the IWM and BKX printed on their daily charts Tuesday. Can they steamroll through those on Wednesday? I’m thinking that those haramis may be a thorny problem. They come after five days of rallying, so they should be more significant than compared to, for example, the gravestone on the SPX on the 4th. The SPX was only two days up from the swing low, so a reversal candle doesn’t have the same power as it would way up at the top of a longer rally.
The market is also, obviously, at resistance. But if it is going to roll over, it might want to do so after several days of thrashing like it did at the October top. So, if you are bearish, it might pay to wait for an obvious reversal pattern to form, such as George’s Triangle.
Ohhh Aaaahhh The market is dead because of this news
AIG CEO Threatens To Step Down
The executive is chafing under constraints imposed by AIG’s government overseers, particularly a recent compensation review by the Obama administration’s pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg, according to the people. AIG, 80% government owned since a rescue last year, is one of the companies under Mr. Feinberg’s purview.
futures rockin’ now, about 7:15 am> nas up 14.5 to 1787
i thought i heard a guy on the radio saying he might have detected a potential reversal in the US dollar…but gold is up nicely here…I was thinkin’ on GLD puts, good thing i didn’t think too much yesterday on that -g-
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 79.46 +0.41 +0.52
Natural Gas 4.508 +0.041 +0.92
Corn 394.5 +8.5 +2.16
Soybeans 968.0 -4.0 -0.41
30yr Bond 118.375 -0.03125 -0.03
10yr Note 118.578125 +0.046875 +0.04
NY Gold 1115.5 +13.0 +1.18
NY Silver 17.625 +0.403 +2.33
Emini S&P 1100.25 +8.25 +0.76
Emini Nasdaq 1787.00 +14.5 +0.82
Emini Dow 10278 +61 +0.6
double top on futures 1 minute chart so yeah,,
applies on the 5 min chart as well. upon further review on the 15m…
After,
I have placed an installment on a short gold position. Do you have any opinion on a top for gold? I was thinking 1300. If there are no reversals in gold to that point I would be surprised and of course not adding another installment.
I was thinking how about NOW?
gold options are too pricey for me with such a crazy gold market so i’m not getting involved.
we had a nice retrace from the double top i mentioned at 7:30 and the 5 min futures are once again bouncing off 70EMA so far. once more floor to break before we fall down and that is 1098 very near term
SPY weekly going for Fib 50 boss:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b63bf352-972c-4a05-bb7a-d780fef65ea0
Are big move!!
Our big move!
phil Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 9:07 am
MATT….i am selling all my QLD at the open….if however we do not turn around and start to break below 1059..i will be buying back BIG because the UPWARD ACCELERATION i reminded you about would come back to the forefront …eliminatiing this as a B wave and sending us QUICKLY above SPX 1200 in a full fledged BUYING PANIC
>>>>>130% long now
GEORGE…….i hate being on margin but this looks like UPWARD ACCELERATION to me
well I’ll be!! 70EMA held and poof!! just like it held in the daily a while back at 1027 .
FREAK what now 1113 by 11/13 as planned?
STOP on the whole position @ SPX 1096
i hate it but here use me as a contrarian. i got stopped out of all short etf’s. (had tight stops)
watching the charts drives me nuts.!
talk about unfortunate K shedding blood ($$) on veteran’s day
GEORGE…like i said this could still be a B wave…..lol…..CRAZY MAN CRAZY
Phil, perhaps intraday A just begun. If we get no B then we could be coming off a top but do watch out for shapes you disbelieve in.
brick wall at 1102
GEORGE..5 waves down from top …stopped out with minor gain
scotty…..the wall is at 1105.70…..it almost got there
MATT>>>>>>SCHWAB shows spx high as 1105.37….is that correct?
while being stopped out my eur/usd currency hedge worked well.
$62 profit to cancel some losses
Intraday B here huh phil?
mitch……if that is 5 down from the top the correction cannot be over
Mitch, re GLD, was/am looking at puts because of what the local radio guy was musing re the US dollar but mainly because i also heard about a possibility that 1000 or 950 might be in the upcoming cards b/4 a continued rise…so i looked at dec puts for GLD and thought they were worth a gander…
i had trouble with a couple of strike prices and symbols, but just got a few dec 101′s. @ 43 cents.
re the ndx, i might have done something at ndx 1780 but was n/a during the 1790+ rise earlier this a.m. — so watchin’…
interesting juncture…if we get more correction below 1087 the up wave would be over …..
GDXJ, wondering if anyone is watching, noticed it is 25.37, looked like opened @ 26.
a junior gold etf…
saw on a different board someone adding DZZ today @ 14.30
i guess that is another way of doing it. DZZ @ 14.43 now…
not sure if anyone is interesting, at least i’m reminding myself of the idea for future reference by putting it here -g-
Man, I’m out and about with my wife looking at houses and I’m missing all the FUN!
After, thanks. GLD B wave turned into a wedge but technically never broke the low of A down.
Missing all of the market fun, fun being with my wife since she has the day off.
Hi all, Phil, what’s your current intermediate wave count for spx ? And the alternate ? I am betting on a nasty 2 week period that should at a minimum test the low from early nov around 1029..i would cover most of my shorts there, except for some WFC Jan 11 puts i am wagering on…saturn-pluto in waning phase suggests some sort of short term panic starting anytime from Friday to Tuesday and lasting till about last week Nov..last time this geocsomic signature occured in 1994, it coincided with serious bond market trouble…not necessarily 1987, but if today/tomorrow we pull of a clean 5 wave move and close below 1087 on spx, i think we open the door for a swift decline to re test..yes, price is the only thing that pays, but the last week and a half has been crazy..a textbook low volume, overbought, corrective affair.
GEORGE….as FERRIS BUELER said… “life moves pretty fast…if you dont stop to look around once in a while …you could miss it”
JO….crossroads here…its the top of B wave now or if it goes above 1106 its the next wave up
Thanks Phil..the USD staged a nice turnaround so far..lets see if it can close above 75…i think if 1107 is taken out, we zoom up to 1120 or so and snap back into the low 1000..
Looks like cycle C or P3 down will have to wait for 2010..
JO
phil Says:
November 10th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
IWM….the battle of 58.90……
>>>>WHAT???? here we are AGAIN!!
phil Says:
November 11th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
GEORGE….as FERRIS BUELER said…
phil,
My “day off” isn’t anything like Ferris’!
I love capitalism!!
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldsboro-nc-school-selling-better-grades-to-students-2009-11
BUEHAHAHAH
K,
It’s the best education “money can buy”.
Phil,
Re: IWM
58.90 is probably a good stop so one can participate in the run up this pm.
After, that’s one big intraday B wave for GLD.
Phil,
Here’s one for ‘ya: Toxic Synovitis. Ever seen it?
SPY higher high then backed off. Revving up for phil’s super high.
SDS made a new low today.
SKF’s daily stochastic at the 80 line which deserves watching.
SRS new low in the works depending upon the stochastic and whether it turns at its 80 line.
BBT trying to advance but may range a bit because it is between support and resistance on the weekly.
ICE is up on the weekly while undulating on the daily.
A mixed bag for sure…
Well, you all are mighty quiet. Guess I’ll mosey over to Mish’s blog for some enterterrorment, maybe “I can’t handle the truth!” Or maybe I can’t do anything about it! Peace out and all that!
It was a boring day. i guess i grew tired of intraday moves.
I would point out that while SDS made an all-time low, SSO did not make an all-time high. Price difference, skewness and all of that makes a bad couple for hedging.
Getting closer to the SPY 50% retracement:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d9f87cc7-81f1-4f59-bbf9-0a4a92c96919
Personally, I thought SPY would make that high then reverse and show some red streaks. Foiled again!
Still waiting on the recent gap up to be filled. It may come sooner than I think.
K, you have the experience to trade a market like today.
Julie, I read some EW stuff last night from the 12000 years of EW. I will pick up “Too Big Too Fail” as I enjoy reading.
HP to acquire 3Com for $2.7bln in cash. (Source: CNBC News)
George, thanks for your service. My dad was 502 Infantry entered March 1968
Mitch,
I was involved with some home improvement project to insulate my house from the coming cold so it felt very weird staring at the charts
I have the experience and drive to trade its just limited capital where commission eats up gains
George,
http://www.businessinsider.com/who-leaked-the-hp-3com-deal-2009-11
Ok, I’ll be the resident commenter on bull days. Would that be like designated driver?
i guess it would. does that mean you are scared of bears?
uhoh? what do I see? TED positive? we shall see when 9pm rolls around. hmm that would be odd wouldn;t it
K, you understand the madness of crowds and bulls or bears can over do it. Most of it comes from a lack of understanding. Entire nations have been busted from not understanding the activities of their fiscal agents.
I’m with you Mitch.
I trade best when i’m not trading
i can’t make use of this so here is my useless post #1 if it will help anyone
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/stocks-have-little-room-to-the-upside-3227.html
oh boy! more insider trading cases ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/15-million-blatant-insider-trading-profit-following-3com-acquisition
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-england-preparing-blow-bubble-unprecedented-proportions
3Com was previously supposed to present at Goldman’s Data Center Techtonics Conference today at the Sheraton Hotel in New York (Agenda below). In a limited distribution note, Goldman yesterday advised selected clients that 3Com had withdrawn at the last minute from the Conference. As those in the industry are well aware, any last minute switches of this kind are indicative of imminent good or bad news dissemination, and more often than not are associated with some strategic announcement.
“useless post #1″ was interesting. A quasi-quant view of parameters of support/resistance. That Market Myth could be Miff’ed as easily as all the others.
I luv this line from your link K: “In the latest attempt to prove that nobody ever learns anything from history, the Bank Of England…”. Nice back-handed compliment. I like it.
Ha! These links about stinky-poo in the marketplace fuel the volatility that vulchers like me thrive on… keep’em comin’.
May 777 be in your dreams tonight.
SPY and QQQQ got a nice doji that Julie mentioned yesterday. RUT is bumping up against its daily 36MA resistance.
Could be another slight daily pullback in the near future. I’m aiming at the gap-up. It doesn’t look like an exhaustion gap but it certainly is a target.
in my dreams tonight will be Nov 25.
that’s the day somewhere around the world candles will be blown and a wish will be made and POOF go the markets!
wow awesome!
http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/11/11/citizens-on-patrol-the-blogosphere-as-regulator/
aww this is why i love dogs!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysKAVyXi0J4&feature=player_embedded
the only reason i posted that youtube link is that we still have 2hrs of veteran’s day and this is just amazing
http://www.mentalfloss.com/blogs/archives/40324