Monday night, I brought up the idea of parabolic gold. And now Daneric has put up some charts showing a target in the 1300 area. Take a look.
Monday night, I brought up the idea of parabolic gold. And now Daneric has put up some charts showing a target in the 1300 area. Take a look.
As the dollar continues to slide (sorry, an orderly decline) and commodities (especially GOLD) continue to climb, at some point, the “inflation” worries are going to start to set in. The bond market will start to move rates up as that realization unfolds.
Then, one of two things happen:
1) Big Brother (Uncle Sam) is going to step in with another “monetization” plan by buying the Long Bonds again (perhaps as part of another Stimulus/Jobs package in early 2010). That will set the rates back down a notch, temporarily.
2) Or we fall into the abyss/Japanese Lost Decade syndrome as our economy rolls over and rates plummet on their own as the world realizes that we don’t have any “real” economy (aka, manufacturing).
Either way, the other end of the tunnel is going to be U-G-L-Y when we get there because when rates start to move higher (can anyone spell BANKRUPT?), I believe the rates are going to spike up big time. An “orderly decline” in the dollar can only lead to foreign countries and U.S. Citizens expecting higher rates of interest to protect themselves from the printing press.
K, your home in 2013+ may come with a mortgage rate that would make John Gotti blush.
String,
You are one of the elite. Google …australia
message board…if you can find the right
board, you can post a message for your friend.
Many…many years ago Grandfather had
a contract with Collins in the town you
worked in.
George,
Seat saved.
Support has moved up to 1085, 1125 unchanged as upside.
We need another drink before we crash to our
We need another drink before. our demise
And I don’t have gold why? It’s hard to follow everything all the time. I’m too busy cutting the tree to sharpen the blade. Diversification anyone?
2thfixr, good post and I agree.
AS i have posted previously….any decline near DOW 10,000 is a gift to buy…..the parabolic move that may be beginning is in the DOW…DOW should blast over 14000 …spx over 1600….same as i have said for months and months as you all know
Julie,
Thanks. Hopefully the only thing that smokes on the bus is the bus itself.
OPEX week. We’ll be up on the week is history if history holds as an indicator.
phil Says:
November 18th, 2009 at 9:00 am
“AS i have posted previously….any decline near DOW 10,000 is a gift to buy…”
I agree to the degree that there is nothing technically negative I can hang my hat on. SPY is very close to the 50% retracement in both price and time, yet it continues higher: 68% is not out of the question.
On the flip side, most of the inverse have made all-time lows. That makes them ripe for a reversal of some type even if it is a daily swing to the upside before moving down further.
Everyone is looking at the 50% retracement is the expectation is to fail to go past that mark. If the past is any indication, it will back off and make another attempt which could be successful.
We still have month-end, Santa rally and year-end that could boost the money manager’s portfolios.
I’ve lost my ability temporarly to multi-task this AM. Please read between the lines of my posts.
Ah, to be 30 again.
SPY sitting on its 30min 36MA support. Next stop would be the 60min 36MA.
Nice move up on BBT this AM. I haven’t messed with ICE.
SSO’s bounce on the 30min hasn’t turned the MACD positive, in fact, it has only slightly moved. Dropping back to the 5min got a nice scalp on that move up.
SOLD $ 10,000 ten year notes for almost a 1 point gain…..just in case 2th FIXER is correct
One of the problems with SKF is that its sister, UYG is cheap.. er.. inexpensive. Easier to buy UYG at the $5.80 level than the $23.80 SKF.
I still go back to the point that ETFs like UYG don’t have much room to the downside, therefore it would be hard for them to crash. When SKF had that gap down around $80, UYG was at $2.81 so I guess it is possible to get there and fill that gap. Perhaps even in my lifetime.
phil, nice going!
GEORGE…thanks….i didnt like that bonds dropped when stocks dropped…i still think there are serious problems in bond land even if we rally more
Phil
Was that one you had bought online but had to call to sell? What was the cusip and how long did you hold it?
String
STRING…..cusip 912833QB9…..bot online sold with broker…held 3 weeks…….needed the cash to pay some BIG bills…better to take a small profit since i dont believe in this rally anyway
Another SPY triangle (I guess), this time on the 5min.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c62619c5-a1ec-4891-97d5-0b3f806a9622
Anyone nibbling on UNG here?
Jim, I’m not at the current time.
I updated that 5min SPY chart by drawing the lower line to touch the last low and the spy bounced from there. I did that because I had a similar line on the 15min which created a low at that point.
Nice to see how these play out. One day I’ll be more proficient and won’t have to draw those lines, just eyeball it.
I say “lines” but I mean “pattern lines”.
SPY is above its 5min 36MA, if it can hold, will move higher as its stochastic is positive.
STRING….maybe bond rally is over already….glad i got TBT
Hey Jim – watching UNG / GMXR for a significant break down. UNG is getting tempting though………..I still think the domestic economy is swirling – does it stop short of flushing….I do not think so. With the market
making new highs, UNG new lows, not sure what can change the short-term picture….unless Siberian winter descends on American.
Looks to be another consolidation day for Phil’s parabolic move that’s coming.
60 min bb pinching tight..big move coming…pop the top before we flop?
MATT…max pain SPY @108….could we drop there by fri?
Yeah, let’s flush ‘em both ways and make us scalpers smile.
String,
I gave Paula 5% of what she made for me.
Do you think I should have given her more?
Phil,
The Max Pain targets have been wildly inaccurate over the past several months. I don’t even look at it any more.
Matt
Seems like we should have green shoots right now. Like it was more of an up day than a down day.
George,
You’re lucky. Only two seats left on the bus.
Me next Julie? Or do i get to be tied on top of the bus
K,
You get one of the seats. You and George
can ride together.
Julie
No that was just right, and I am sure you will return the favor. Hey I played raquetteball today. Not full speed, but I played. got my heart rate up and broke a sweat. Bowled monday night not good, but I broke a hundred. I am nearly normal again.
String
Insiders are dumping their positions during
this pump and dump move.
String,
Happy to read the good news about your
recovery. Keep it headed in the same
direction.
SDS – minor change today…three days running i’m underwater by > 3 %
noticed VXX and VIX are both down a fair chunk percentage wise today.
did not add hqd.to (nas short)
K is thinking a Samsung LCD TV for black friday
looks like consumers are spending
after,
I wouldn’t worry about SDS. It has a nice gap around the $56 mark!
I remember when we thought the market would not stop going down. The extreme will shift again, patience is warranted.
hi George, thanks, i’m currently trading verrrrrrrrrrry cautiously…
are you in SDS here ?
a gap to 56, wowza, that’d sure be nice…
what do you think of VXX ?
thx
Thank you George and Phil for taking my comments seriously. I still have a small TBT position (200 shares). Daneric’s chart shows today’s nice rebound from the channel line I talked about previously.
after, I have both SDS and VXX. I think we in for some short term pain, but long term gain. I think much longer term than most on this board, but love to learn their timing techniques and methods! I’d love to see that $56 gap filled on SDS!
Jim, UNG made a new low ($8.92), so technically, the 5th wave could be in. However, with the large supply overhang in the underlying commodity, there may be much more room to the downside. Also, the volume on UNG today was about 37 Mil and the last low at $8.94 in Sept traded about 70 Mil. My unsolicited opinion is to wait for a new low with a ridiculous volume (60 Mil plus) as an indication of a reversal low. Good luck, because I am looking at this for a long term play in a friend’s account as well. Hope that helps you.
OH yeah, what’s up with the dollar heading lower and the S&P not rocketing up 20 points? Every other day I’ve look at the charts and the $USD loses this much, the DOW is up triple digits. Is this rally finally getting TIRED?
One last post before a shower and dinner: sorry to spam y’all.
When radio commercials hawk gold–which they have for months, and when waitresses and patients start talking about GOLD–just recently noticed this, then the top is not far away. I totally see $1300 happening, don’t get me wrong…but if you are just getting long gold here, be nimble and keep a short leash on that position! Paraphrasing Matt: parabolic moves rarely end well.
Tooth
Got a call yesterday from a gold broker. I could not get rid of him. I told him I would buy silver or palladium before I would buy gold. Told him I would buy a ETF before I would buy hard gold. He said be careful because the ETFs were paper and could not supply the gold, yada yada yada!! Told him gold was not legal tender and they don’t take it at Wally World. If Wally World doesn’t have it you don’t need it, and I hung up on him. The top is in the near future, as with all asset classes IMHO.
String
did I say watch the TED??? well
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20531334594
up 10+% today!!!
the time has come to get another 10-20% short team. 0.25 has been reached. and MA’s are finally below us acting as support for the TED
ok final for the night is 8.46%. we just need another 4% move for me to go in.
K, way to not disappoint! I saw the jump in the TED and was surprised you had not posted anything on it before my triple play above! Glad to see you are caught up!
I hear you string on the cold calling gold brokers. Another sign of the top getting in sight.
Julie,
As long as K doesn’t sit on my lap. ALL ABOARD! The bus is leaving the terminal.
After,
I’m trading the inverse (like SDS) but I don’t have a core position. I will as soon as the flip comes. I don’t have any problem establishing an inverse position here, but that’s me.
That VXX looks mean – and juicy. I’d be waiting on a setup because it wll be one of Matt’s springs that boings up like a Jack-In-The-Box (not the burgers).
After,
A disclaimer: I don’t have a problem being short because I play both sides of the market. So if I have something as a core position, I “defend” it by playing its twin on corrections or nice rebounds. I don’t know if there is a twin to VXX unless it is the underlying.
For SDS, I get into SSO to defend it. Last year I was in SKF and had a drawdown. No problem because I played the corrections it made and it eventually went back up with me having a free trade.
George,
she meant she paired us up together so we can share stories that will close the generational gap and will make me a scary scalper. haha
Do not worry I don’t need much room.
My guy TED will be on my right shoulder while evil VIX will be on my left.
You guys are toooooo funny. Thanks for the laughs.
K,
I’m relieved. At 6′4″ you take up a lot of space. And I know you’ll eat my bag of peanuts they hand out if you’re close by.