IP Round-Table
Vice President Joe Biden held a big meeting on intellectual-property yesterday. CNBC reported that the Obama administration was trying to protect jobs in the movie and TV industries. Of course, if anything comes of this effort, many jobs would be lost in the technology industry. It’s companies like Cisco that make it possible to download movies in a few hours, and would Apple’s iPod have taken off so spectacularly if it didn’t play MP3 files? I doubt it. For men like John Chambers and Steve Jobs, copyright infringement is the killer app to end all killer apps.
It’s FOMC Day
The SPX was trying to recover from a weeks-long 70-point downtrend coming into to the last FOMC announcement on November 4th. After the big event, the SPX rallied up to 1061, but then flopped over and plunged into a 1046.50 close. It looked like a victory for the bears, but the market gapped-up the next morning and rallied for almost two weeks. That gap has yet to be filled.
I suppose that the dip-buyers were waiting for a scary event to buy into on November 4th. Are they looking for the same play this time? Film at 2:15pm.
very early futes
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 73.25 +0.56 +0.77
Natural Gas 5.55 +0.027 +0.49
Corn 407.5 -1.00 -0.25
Soybeans 1062.00 +0.25 +0.02
30yr Bond 117.75 +0.1875 +0.16
10yr Note 117.140625 -0.421875 -0.36
NY Gold 1129.8 +6.8 +0.60
NY Silver 17.48 +0.025 +0.14
Emini S&P 1109.5 +5.5 +0.50
Emini Nasdaq 1805.75 +10.75 +0.60
Emini Dow 10499 +4 +0.04
K,
Correction…tradeofweek.com…
dax new yearly high – if the break gets confirmed we’ve plenty of room to run
No K, just wanted to see if there was any chance to connect at the office if I needed to. Have no plans to become a closet trader. My dental practice definitely subsidizes my trading education. Great investor, lousy trader that is getting much better, quickly thanks to all of you.
Since I only have 2 knees George, and I don’t plan on being around for the “big announcement,” I’ll just stick to placing stops where they belong and living in the swing trade world.
BKX drops ahead of fed
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/12/bkx-drops-ahead-of-fed.html
K, your club is Kool.
Julie, thanks for that link.
Sam, I’m independent as a trader but controlled (manipulated?) by the Fed, i.e., trading with one hand behind my back – lol.
2thfixr, borrow one of your patient’s knees if you need a 3rd.
thanks George,
Glad you liked it.
Depending on where the line is drawn on the daily, SPY sure looks like it’s trying to bust out of that upper rectangle.
Depending on where the line is drawn on the daily, SPY sure looks like it’s trying to bust out of that upper rectangle.
I’d say this intraday gap up invalidates any breakout. That also goes for the ones below.
GEORGE..sold all SCHX for 7c gain….moving day tomorrow..wont be able to follow it so best to TMAR…..right george?????
Here’s a 60min chart zooming in on Matt’s rectangle:
http://i49.tinypic.com/2z6xmh5.jpg
Phil,
You got that right! That .07c is nice. Ha. I get those all of the time and with the right amount of shares, it’s big profits. You can imagine how many shares I get with SRS and those low $ stocks.
Matt’s “Box of Beer” may turn into a “Case of Beer”.
Market may go up until Fed-Speak, then flip back down, then back up. Regardless, that’s a nice intraday gap to be filled. Call it a target.
George, if you like chocolate you better run to the store.
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/CC/W
futures stuck at R1
Pivot is at 1105.06 or about 4 points downwards from here.
just sayin. plenty of support and the 1102 i wanted yesterday didnt happen so bullish case still in play
oh M Gee Citigroup down another 3% what a shock
BBT dropped like a rock after its gap.
Larry,
Yikes! Must be a seasonal thing with cocoa. I’m going to get my Whitman’s today before the price goes up.
BBT trying to build a bottom by easing over on its 1 and 5min setting up to cross.
Rallying right into the new moon as expected.
just sayin check these two charts before helicopter flies at 2:15
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/12/institutional-buying-and-selling.html
Kim I liked your Dec 16 call.
*Jim
Maybe today’s Fed-Speak will be the catalyst to break out the market (one way or the other). Personally, I like ranging because of the action.
i like this
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2009/12/how-gordon-ramsay-will-make-you-a-better-trader/
Norway’s central bank decided Wednesday to increase its key policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 1.75%, surprising the market.
this is you George. thanks to K haha
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704398304574598060597361686.html
George,
If fed hikes rates gold should crash, dollar should gain, euro should take a dump and so will the stocks.
I think its about time we raised rates and norway just gave clueless ben a hint by surprising with rate hike.
Watch DZZ .. just sayin it still has support if it falls another 10 cents or so.
K,
That’s “almost” me checking prices. My latest venture was going to Best Buy and at the checkout counter showing the lower prices I found on the iPhone. They gave me the discount right then and there… no going to Wal-Mart and such. Saved $15 on that deal.
That little App has been great. All thanks to you.
Check’s in the mail.
DZZ is up-n-running. Inverse looking juicy if only for a counter-move.
New all-time low for SRS. Seems I say this every other day.
Top on URE intraday which has been strong all day. Could be a turning point.
George,
DZZ will turn into a great scalp one way or another soon
there’s 10 cents downside and 20 upside at the moment.
Yeah SRS makes lows yet i just realized i own some on one account!! oops
K,
Here’s a news item you missed:
http://tinyurl.com/ydkjkjm
Again, depending upon where the upper rectangle line is drawn on the 60min, SPY has broken out and closed 3 bars above it.
“To the moon, Alice”?
George,
We all knew he’s the man of the year.
btw hmm is this a C scalp i see? NAW macd has gone up so high yet C has only rallied 7 cents
if we rally I call 1138 the perfect top
if we crash 1060 is a good bet short term
Detroit News: Despite an official unemployment rate of 27 percent.
Using a broader definition of unemployment, as much as 45 percent of the labor force has been affected by the downturn.
And that doesn’t include those who gave up the job search more than a year ago, a number that could exceed 100,000 potential workers alone.
http://www.businessinsider.com/almost-half-of-detroits-workers-are-unemployed-2009-12
” Federal Reserve is poised to leave interest rates at a record low.”
they better fkin surprise or else we’re doomed and the dollar is toast.
uhoh. we go acrashing during lunch hour?
I didn’t know he was man of the year. Guess I missed that. He looks like a dollar bill on that cover.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/SykQcdFY94I/AAAAAAAAF4w/0pfeb60hcNo/s1600-h/spx.png
here’s for all the breakouts
http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2009/12/break-outs.html
Yes George,
they are sarcastic bunch they are there at TIME
If Geithner is going to extend TARP until next October, why wouldn’t the Fed extend rates? I’d bet he would do whatever keeps the dollar down.
I look for beaucoup short-covering if all remains the same.
dzz looks cisk. going for a lower low near 13.09 maybe?
K,
I think DZZ is waiting on the Fed too. Not a lot of action yet.
DZZ just wanted to not be overbought on the Stochastic. i see the game it’s playing LOL
tmobile business chat rocks btw. i will never use regular chat again LOL
holy crap hadnt checked google in a while. the monster is back at near $600′s
Thanks George. Aren’t we all
Sam,
I’m buddies with Gold in Sachs.
BOOM
Another credit rater lowers the boom.
S&P just got around to lowering Greece to a BBB+.
I normally buy both sides of the market just before Fed-Speak. Put a sell stop .10 above entry on both and when the spikes come, both get hit for a profit.
I won’t do that today though. These are less volatile times and that may not work.
“I’m buddies with Gold in Sachs.”
Excellent play with words! Made my day.
Ha, lot of sideways movements. SPY just spiked down loading the spring for a bounce up no doubt.
george I’m watching OEF (S&P 100 etf)
if the 5 min breaks of closes below 51.70 for a while then we’re toast
why 51.70? because VWAP lol
You be the judge. Here’s a pic of the Qs. Note the blue horizontal lines I’ve drawn. When there is a breach of a previous high, there has been a move down – not a crash, but a nice move. There is one previous breach to compare. Something I’ve been looking at to see if there is a significance since the old addage “higher highs and lower lows” prevails.
Also, note the MACD divergence. They don’t always pan out but good to keep an eye on.
http://i46.tinypic.com/259v81e.jpg
oo it dropped to 51.70
its bouncing. crucial 15 mins these are (aka 3 5min candles)
dont set stops too tight here though. it might blow one way big then recover and you’ll be blown
remember use the 11am price as a stop to the upside if you’re short.
hilarious, K .. I’m betting on a small pop post Fed here
SPY in good shape for a bounce. The 15min stochastic is at the 18 line. But the MACD is negative. Doesn’t matter, it’s going to do whatever it wants.
If the higher time frames are not affected, I stick with them and let the lower ones bounce around.
OMG CNBC just said time did the right thing about making bennie man of the year and congress should leave him alone.
i’m bypassing my term paper to listen to this for the next 20 mins then it’s work time!
i’m betting that too in my mind but actually betting short LOL oops
More hilarious stuff 2 minutes before fed decision
Fidelity Fires Four Employees For Playing Fantasy Football
bill gross said we shouldnt see much since bennies confirmation is tomorrow.
looks like a pop is right George? lol
fed leaves rates unchanged and there is the pop
hahaha they said business are still cutting back and DOWN went the ticker, of course now they said stable stable stable and jumped back
and its over now what?
businesses reluctant to add to payroll. and things are abating or whatever they said.
this is nuts.
Eh, should have made my bracket trade. Although, it wasn’t as volatile as past announcements. Everyone expected rates to remain the same over the final month of the year.
We now resume the original direction of the market.
did you see what I said George? use the 11am top as a stop for your shorts? it wouldnt have been hit and now i see a long red candle.
K,
Yes, nice call.
OEF trying to hug 51.70 again. ugh such a boring day. ok i’m taking a break for this and time to do my paper for school while talking to my blonde wife
I would have easily gotten my .10c on both sides of the market.
you could have gotten your 10C+ on DZZ from 13.15 to 13.28
Shorts don’t trust this topping action, and I can’t blame them, so they’re covering tightly until they see something happening – like bonified selling.
covering? DZZ at 13.31 LOL
OEF at 51.61 since 51.7 didnt want to hug it. this is cliff hanger “gap fillin style”
George,
I don’t think we will see real selling until
2010. People will take losses now but
will wait until 2010 to take profits. If
I take profits on Jan 4, 2010, I have
15 months before I have to pay taxes.
Julie,
We think alike.
OEF is about to hit the ground circa 51.48
gap filled.
K,
If you go to…hardrightedge.com… and click
on daily (left side) and scroll down you will
find experts who cover the market and
recommend stocks.
3 days of sideways move +-50 .. think a vacation is in order
Hey Mr OEF!
you missed a spot! come back down and clean it up.
you closed last night at 51.51 and now went as low as 51.52 come on drop one more cent or I aint payin ya.
Julie,
Thanks for the information. I’ve never known how that worked with selling. If there is a sell-off at that time (first of the year), it may be a good time to buy.
I’ve always thought March was a turning point.
George,
You have to pay taxes on profits. Now is
not the time to take them…but if I have
losses, now is the time to take them.
Gap almost filled on SPY.
51.48 OEF reached. Lovely
now why is DZZ saddened by this?
VWAP is great. DZZ got stopped by it now that i look at it and OEF is bouncing from the 51.48 ground i mentioned.
this was a perfect setup for the last 30 mins fake rally
K,
If your club is looking for low cost puts
and calls, try the DJX.
We can’t do options or anything other than long Equities and ETF’s mostly.
my plan so far is to have 20% cash. 30% OEF and 50% play money for 5 or winning trades. ( about 2.3k per 10% i guess it comes down to)
K Says:
December 16th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Pivot is at 1105.06 (this is for /ES futures)
—–
We are currently flirting with 1105 and 1104.75
just sayin lets see where we close
SPY gap filled and reversal.
we stayed above the pivot so this is a bullish case on that aspect.
I really should get this paper done.
ooops looks like C is getting C-Reamed in after hours
Citi Price Rumored At $3.15, $20.5 Billion In New Securities, Government To Keep $5 Billion In Common Stake As Below Cost-Basis
one last one and am done with C for now
All Eyes Shift To Citi’s Impending 83% Dilution
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/all-eyes-shift-citis-impending-83-dilution
K, What do you think, buy C?
Sam,
Gold in Sachs says Buy buy buy.
I am not sure if you have ready my recent post.
http://www.trivisonno.com/tuesdays-trading-121509#comment-52852
C will NOT go to 0
but they might go to 0.59 LOL
so like Mitch said. I wouldn’t hold C in any portfolio. If i day traded it and setup looked good I would scalp for a few quick bucks.
Just on the serious side… my opinions are mine only and they haven’t made me much money march till now… just thought i’d mention my flaw
Thx .. hilarious cautionary note
I was thinking of allocating some cash and stepping into C might be a good idea at this point. Its not really gone below 3 (except in July) So averaging out somewhere between 2-3 might be a good bet.
Just a thought!