Dubai Doubts
SPY traded above its Dubai gap on Tuesday, but failed to close above it. So, we can’t yet be absolutely sure that the market has shaken off the news. The VIX has also not filled its Dubai gap. Perhaps the market is waiting on this Friday’s big jobs report, which is sometimes priced in after Wednesday’s ADP report.
Powering Up?
One thing I have been watching is the XLU utilities ETF. Energy usage is a good economic indicator, and the utes have been moribund all year. The XLU has been the second-worst major ETF this year, up only a couple percent, and outperforming only the XBI (biotechnology). On Tuesday, the XLU popped 2% and is testing its yearly peak from January. Recent reports have shown the manufacturing sector to be making modest improvement, so maybe electricity demand is coming back. That might also be good news for natural gas.
On the other hand, maybe this is only the cats-and-dogs phase signifying a withering rally. Or maybe American utility companies are just exporting electricity to the Mexican auto industry, formally known as “Detroit”. After all, loaded tankers are still being parked at sea due to what the Wall Street Journal calls “a near-record excess oil supply”.
K,
Yep, it’s Rectangle Mania alright. George spotted this pattern way ahead of the crowd once again.
Matt
Matt, The quotes right below the comments give me false hopes of a new comment when I refresh.
Guys, take a look at a few links on tuesday’s trading at the end just FYI. i finished skimming my usual 500 articles.
futes as of about 5:40, nas up 0.5
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 77.63 -0.74 -0.95
Natural Gas 4.734 -0.028 -0.60
Corn 414.5 -3.0 -0.73
Soybeans 1059.5 -1.0 -0.09
30yr Bond 121.3125 -0.3125 -0.26
10yr Note 119.546875 -0.390625 -0.33
NY Gold 1212.7 +12.5 +1.04
NY Silver 19.225 +0.015 +0.08
Emini S&P 1109.25 +0.75 +0.07
Emini Nasdaq 1792.5 +0.5 +0.03
Emini Dow 1047 +9 +0.09
my target for adding nas shorts = 1817 and 1826
but still tempted, on something like vxx or edz or fxp…
and on GLD, i heard something about 97 % bullish reading on gold ?
K,
Those were good links. I tried responding last night but I needed a comp reboot and went to bed instead.
Here’s another look at the rectangle. This chart includes the March lows. Sure looks bullish. See what ya think:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=db2dd146-3af1-4483-b312-bf7bdc856670
StockTiger is MIA. For the past month, I’ve been trying to get the StockTiger website but no-go. I can’t find anything on the Web that says it has been taken down. The screen that comes up now says “This website is coming soon” and “if you are the owner…”, etc. There are some residual bits-n-pieces remaining on some past pages, but nothing recent.
So I don’t know what’s going on with that situation. I liked some of their content.
I’ve also been wondering. Used to receive their mail weekly. I hope the guy is allright. I think he lives in russia or am I mistaken? Website coming soon means he hasn’t paid his hosting bills perhaps.
Adp nonfarm employment change worse than expected, about 20k more jobs were shed than expected.
K,
Yes, he lives in Russia. Crockett is his name I believe. So, he hasn’t paid his website dues. Hmmm.
George
My charts on SD have quit updating, are yours working? I have to change symbols or time frames to get them to update. It starting to PMO!!
String
Stringm,
Yes, my charts on SD are okay.
Broke through the upper trendline, backed off for maybe another try.
SRS all-time low today.
SDS new all-time low today. SPY consolidating on the 1min.
The StockTiger guy may have also forgotten to renew his domain. I have heard many horror stories of people that lose control of their domains like that. Ownership reverts to the hosting company, which then offers to sell it back to you, for a very high price, of course.
Note to String: mark down on your calendar when you domain will be expiring.
GEORGE….BEAR case is officially dead …spx and dow made new highs….worst case is break of friday low then rush up to new highs…looking to add more longs
George,
Nice call on the false breakout last night:
http://www.trivisonno.com/tuesdays-trading-12109#comment-51892
The market may turn back up later, but it was an excellent heads-up for day-traders.
Matt
Hmm phil. You really want to go against the bus?
range 1125 to 1085, 1060 strong support. Little inst participation so anything goes.
phil,
That could be the call. SPY’s 15min stochastic and MACD are recycling and when it finishes, that will be the story of the next move. They both had just gotten too oversold.
K….what are you talking about??
Matt, thanks. I’ve been burned by those moves!
Geithner burst the bubble this morning:
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc04/idUSTRE5B13N120091202
No more TARP for banks = less money for bankers to speculate with.
GEORGE….sold my SSO into the pop this am….now looking to get long SCHX or SCHB….they are FREE trades if you have a schwab account…i am going to milk those cows several times a day even if its just a few bucks…..no more $6.95 to chuck
UNG making new lows!
phil,
Are those free for all Schwab traders? I like that.
SPY 15min stochastic still negative and MACD about to cross to the downside. It needs to get some mojo here to stay alive. If it can consolidate for a while, it can work off that turn and go back up.
Jim, the only thing I can control is the capital I lose. The extent of the upside is luck. I cut my losses on some trades turned bad. But for UNG, it’s not what you trade but how you trade it right?
The XLF is toying with a 9/36/15 cross-down, and DIA is not far behind. Reversal days are rare, but today is a decent candidate so far.
GEORGE..if you have a schwab account..yes FREE trades on SCHX..large cap… SCHB ..broad market and SCHA..small cap
jim….nat gas is way off the lows…ung is not tracking the commodity
bought 2 gld puts gld 119 – filled @ 2.49 give or take a penny…
still looking at edz, can’t stop looking -g-
and vix…
anyone interested in ung, check out gas.to as alternative, and i think there is an american symbol for this…if anyone wants it and can’t find it, let me know, i’ll check for it this evening…
Phil: No way. Natty is at the old intraday lows. (4.575)
JIM..correction…nat gas at lows…was looking at wrong chart
JIM..you beat me by seconds….look at time stamps
CNBC reports that Goldman put out a note saying that the risk is that the Fed will tighten sooner than expected.
MATT….that must mean GS already has a net short position …eh?
GEORGE…..maybe SCHA small cap will perform better now than large
GEORGE..if we can overlap 1099 then we can break friday low…GOOD buy opportunity there….glad i dumped SSO ..i would be sucking wind now
phil,
Yep. Still working through the 15min. I’m glad you sold too. Very tame move up for the inverse on this counter. No big selling.
GEORGE…..bought SCHA..small cap @ 25.71……the correction could be over…..will buy more if we get more correction
Beige Book at 2pm.
phil,
SCHA looks brand new ETF. Nice price, too. I’ve scalping SSO 1min. The 15min stochastic is turning up some but not where it needs to be.
SPY nearing its 5min 36MA resistance.
George, they are new ETF’s that schwab is trying to pump liquidity into hence the free promotion
Beige book should be interesting.
Tks, K. You must be a Schwabee too.
K,
Did you business pick up in November from the 1 hour in October?
Matt
Apple has turned red, and the market yawned at CNBC’s raving over the “optimistic” Beige Book.
Matt. I get an average of 5-6hrs a month (since i have yet to advertise or pursue it fully.. busy man)
November Got 5.5 hrs
december have already made appointment for about 7hours worth. That was mainly due to my personalized advertising in terms of thanksgiving cards for every customer thanking them for choosing me (psychological behavior..
they will be urged to return the favor)
33% have either called or emailed thanking about the great card (it was good design I gotta admit) and maybe 5% have scheduled something.
thanks for asking.
4Q compared to 4Q’08 might be half as many hours but twice the charge. (supply and demand.. less time on my end more demand = higher prices.)
With SPY’s new spike high, it will be a toss-up for going higher or filling the Nov. 30th gap.
Speaking of fractals… consolidation within consolidation is in the works.
George,
I am Not a Schwab guy but as you can see here I posted about it a few weeks ago
http://www.trivisonno.com/mondays-trading-111609#comment-51157
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-beige-book-the-deterioration-of-bank-loan-quality-continues-2009-12
GEORGE..i see 5 waves down from todays peak in spx…..have to respect that ..im going to bail out on the next pop up
ANYTHING around 1110 is good enough to sell
phil,
SPX has held the 1085 level Beige Book just girds the index for a “pullback” to this level after visiting 1106 again & again. JMO.
I donno phil, maybe 3:30 will bring some movement. SPY sure wants to go up and the 15min MACD is still negative. It doesn’t have to turn around for a nice move up, but the stochastic on that time frame should and it isn’t right now.
However, SPY has been going up all day ever since it made that low this AM.
SPY could be forming a bearish wedge on the 15min but I don’t know how to spot those yet until after the fact.
Bear Flag?
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d11d2065-b90e-45b5-b388-a1a77fb8833d
GEORGE i think we pop up a bit then head down
Matt,
Without a good natural gas fund I will be forced to buy a natural gas company when I exit my current two spec plays. Rather have the commodity. . .
Here’s what I’m looking at on the SPY 5min:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c34d140e-3dbf-4701-888c-8adfd4da5c1a
Actually, I drew that 5min wrong compared to my SD chart but that’s the idea.
Here’s the 5min chart redrawrn (spelled for our NE friends).
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=836f6465-fe4f-45bf-99b5-05df2156647f
GEORGE…..bailed out of SCHA..for a small profit..best of all ..NO donation to chuck
OVERLAP @ 1109 has occurred…this could be the C wave down now
phil,
Good move. That last jaunt up looks fishy. At least until the 15min starts acting right.
SRS and SDS made another all-time low. How’s that for 2 new records with two stocks in one day? I’m running out of fingers.
phil,
You’ll have to trust me on this but last Thanksgiving I put 500 $ in a brokerage and made 30 some trades. I got all of my principal out 5 months later (hard work for no $) Incredible what just 6 or 7 $ per trade grosses the house.
Btw, what’s a market cycle?
looks like c wave tomorrow..prob gap down
GOOD luck all…….hasta
Sheezam, nobody wanted to budge on price today.
There again, SRS made an all-time low while its sister, URE, didn’t. Same with SSO/SDS. Am I missing something?
Somethin’ is rotten in the ol’ market place, ya know.
Chat later phil! Looking forward to seeing if you get out of that TLT 95.72 anytime soon.
Mitch,
How true about the brokerage houses. The number of trades I do gives the company $1500 to $2000 per month. If I did longer-term trades it would be better for me $wise in the long run (no pun intended).
George,
House managers would show us that the gross and net numbers are a chasm the size of Strahan’s gap but I’m trying to incite one to speak up lol.
I’m playing around with the ise-numbers. A volatility similar to the current one only happened during the March low… No need to be in the market all the time.
Geo,
hunting a good power backup(snow this weekend?) Got a recommendation?
Mitch,
I use a 1200 watt inverter. 800 watt works well too. It will run anything up to that wattage. I hook mine to my car battery and run the car when it needs recharging.
It works great. Now, there are two types of inverters. One is a true sine wave (wave form has smooth upper and lower waves) which emulates the AC from the wall, the other is a square wave, or “digital wave” that is squared off – these are much cheaper.
I have the square wave. It won’t run a battery backup UPS, but I hook it to a power strip and it will run all of my computers and monitors.
These things are handy as all get-out. You can find them at Wal-Mart, Lowe’s, etc. Even if you get a 400 watt, that is very useful. They will run lights, charge cell phones, etc. The square wave won’t run a digital clock and some minor things like that.
I’ve even run a small heater. Anything over 1200 watts will require more than one battery. A marine deep cycle battery is best.
here’s a website I found that discusses the new traders tax.
http://tinyurl.com/yfg5qys
George,
That sounds awesome. How long did you say it would run,say, a couple of monitors and a lamp before I have to go to the car/boat battery? I’m assuming it can run independent of the battery for a bit? Thanks answering George!
http://www.businessinsider.com/break-up-bank-of-america-2009-11
Bank Of America CEO Candidates Want To Break Up The Bank
Mitch,
Here’s one of my inverters. This is a 750 watt. These things will run power tools, fans, coffee pots, whatever, as long as the device is within the power range of the inverter.
http://i49.tinypic.com/24q4jkz.jpg
Mitch,
It has two alligator cables to hook to the battery. It will not run on its own, it must be hooked up to a 12 volt battery. I don’t have a marine battery so I just pop the hood of my car and hook it up. After a bit, I charge the battery up by idling the car.
These are not UPS units. Those have batteries. I have two of the UPS I got from Best Buy that run my system for 2 hours, then I hook up the inverter.
Mitch,
Another pic of the inverter with the alligator clamps to hook to battery.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2luqbut.jpg
George,
Very good. I am headed to Wal-Mart.
Mitch,
One last thing. Use the cables that come with the inverter that hook to the battery and don’t make them any longer. DC current is very inefficient while AC current is very efficient.
I have a 150ft extension cord I run from the inverter (it has AC outlet plugs just like in the home) to my house and that’s OKAY. However, having longer DC cables from the inverter to the battery is NOT OKAY: DC doesn’t like long cables because it loses power. I just put my inverter under the hood where it is toward the front of the engine compartment and close the hood almost all the way, but not all the way, so rain won’t get in.
I give these things out as Christmas presents because they are so useful. They’re not used often, but when they are, they’re wonderful.
Geo,
just picked up the 750 watt from Home Depot!
Mitch,
That was FAST! How about doing some shopping for me?
Went to Target first. They only had the 400 watt. I’m excited!
interesting options tool
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2009/12/introducing-livevolpro/
i signed up for free its a day delayed but i’m just going to mess around with it
its 15 minutes delayed.. not bad
George,
Thanks a lot. These would make great gifts.
George,
It’s a “modified sine wave.”
K,
Looks interesting.
Mitch,
Modified Sine Wave is the square wave, not the true sine waves. The same power in a tru sine wave would be $4-500. Those are only needed for special loads.
You did good!
Mitch,
Most people can do with a 400 watt inverter. Plus, there are 25-50 watt inverters for the car that has a cigarette lighter plug. Very useful to hook computers, radios, DVD players, etc. that require AC power. Very nice Christmas stocking stuffers.
Thought I would check my 15min chart to see where the last candle landed between the trendlines. Main body is still inside.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=af3f563a-9e51-4431-b1a5-4a014b1a0d3b
Gold futures up another $10 since the close. Now at 1227.
Gold: The Bubble That Bernake Blew