At first glance, it looks odd that the SPX can’t break 1120 and the Dow can’t break 10,500 while the NDX just sailed right through 1815. But the mystery is solved once you look at the Exxon (XOM) daily chart. That’s a big stock with a big effect on the large-cap indexes, and it is not validating a breakout.
Neither is oil itself (USO), or commodities in general (DBC). Energy stocks (XLE) have been the worst-performing sector over the past few weeks. The XLE is down 2.86% since November 16th.
Everybody is carrying on about how the surging dollar isn’t effecting stocks, but that isn’t exactly true. It does indeed seem to be hurting energy stocks, and might be what is preventing the SPX from breaking out after all.
This is a serious problem for the bulls. If the recovery is so fabulous, why are commodities stalled? And for the bears, if you see Exxon starting to turn up, well, let’s just say that you are being given an IQ test.
hrrrmm TED is crashing i wonder why
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20531334594
You always have great insight Matt. Thanks.
My (small player) FOUR (4) XOM Jan 2011 65 Puts have come back nicely, and if we ever get a REAL stock market correction, they’ll be some real nice money!
I’ll share a trading idea with the blog. Small potatoes compared with the much anticipated rectangle breakout, but could be the “first phase” if it breaks to the upside: a 30 min triangle formed in today’s $SPX trading. Upside target of 1125.81 and 1110.23 to the downside. Here is a stock chart to visually inspect the data:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2cd9e9fb-83d0-449c-98a0-50ee36475df5
George, Matt, others–what do you think of the 30 min chart gap on the SPX found in the above link? The daily doesn’t confirm it since 12/21 trading was mostly above the close on Monday. Is it a valid gap?
Similarly, what to make of the remaining gaps (on the daily $SPX charts) from 1103.74 to 1105.31 and 1069.64 to 1072.71?
Merry Christmas to all who celebrate the holiday, safe travels to those moving around to see friends, family, or taking a well deserved vacation, and here’s to good trading!
Nice breakout on TBT today! Yippee!
K, I don’t know what the DZZ equivalent is, but if GLD drops below 104.70, that is a wave 4/wave 1 overlap and is pretty bearish. I know gold is oversold right now, but keep an eye on letting DZZ run some more. Unsolicited trade advice….sorry.
opposite of DZZ which is 2x bear on gold isn
DGP which is 2x bull on gold
I plan to hopefully trade this after dec 31st as not to take the profits before tax time
Sorry K, not looking for opposite (although that is handy for later, possibly) of DZZ. Letting you know the possible support of 104.70 in GLD, or the “uh-oh” point if it takes it out.
Nice Hussman piece. Great reading. Thanks for your posts. G’night mate.
Want to know what the Treasury is doing?
Go to…ustres.gov…scroll down left side
and click on reports. The latest TICK report
shows foreign interest in bonds moving
down.
If you like to read, try “Crash Proof.”
8 am futes
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 74.7 +0.3 +0.40
Natural Gas 5.696 -0.038 -0.66
Corn 398.75 -1.25 -0.31
Soybeans 998.5 -10.0 -1.00
30yr Bond 116.15625 +0.0625 +0.05
10yr Note 116.234375 -0.40625 -0.35
NY Gold 1085.6 -1.1 -0.10
NY Silver 17.05 +0.02 +0.12
Emini S&P 1117.75 +4.25 +0.38
Emini Nasdaq 1846.00 +5.00 +0.27
Emini Dow 10434 +26 +0.25
will add to nas short @ open, but want 1838 or higher, looks doable right now…
K says:
December 22, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Just a fun fact…
over the last 30 days I read 9,487 blog posts (ok not read, skimmed most but gives you an idea what I deal with following 158 different blogs)
>>>>>K….you could be dealing with PARALYSIS of ANALYSIS…lol
Phil,
I need to upgrade my memory! Haha. I hope over-reading isn’t a medical condition.
I’m slowly retracting from the bad habits (even though lots of info isn’t bad)
AFTER…..consider buying treasury coupon bonds instead of TLT…you get interest while you wait…not at end of month…TLT is forever if bottom falls out as i suspect it will (coupon maturity will end the pain)….buy zero coupon treasuries after a big decline for maximum percent move( preferably in retirement fund)because of “phantom interest”
2th fixer…bought small amt of TBT on todays gap down
would add to TBT UNDER 48
-thx Phil, for the amount I have or may intend to and for the period i’d hold and because I’m located in Canada, i will stick to TLT…
-added hqd.to this morning
-i know some here are keeping shorts on a tight leash, a good plan, but will i follow it, lol, is to cave on nas shorts on a close of 1857+ on the ndx100
this is still 12 pts away…
Bought NG yesterday @ 5.37 sold today @ 6.07.
Bought GDX yesterday @ 45.19 sold today @ 46.00
I would have stuck with these longer but I’m concerned about a possible market top here.
got too cute on TLT for now and sold @ 91.20
slight profit, will reenter today @ 91
i note ndx100 is up a mere point and a half…
good luck all
After, very nice! Funny, I thought you’d be in that candle. I’m still in my specs. . . so hopefully I can be more objective with treasuries/currency/commodities.
ndx now up a few pts, i always speak too soon ! TLT has slipped back a little bit now, may get filled @ 91 yet…
speaking of oil
Cash-Hungry Iraq Quadrupling Oil Production, OPEC Fears Price Collapse
http://www.businessinsider.com/iraq-will-rival-saudi-arabias-oil-2009-12
Sales of new homes in the US dropped 11.3% to an annualized rate of 355k units in November.
The consensus was for a rise of 2.3%. to 438,000 from 430,000 a month earlier.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-plunge-2009-12
Phil
I am still having trouble figuring out the difference betweem treasury notes, bonds, coupons strips, etc. Like you suggested to After, would you buy a 10 year coupon bond. Give me a Cusip for an example. I am going to beat this into my head.
String
STRING also scroll down to ….related articles http://stocks.about.com/od/bonds/a/Zeroone012505.htm
cool simulator
http://tradingsim.com/
reviewing the Wed. trading notes by Matt,
USO up, XOM, not !
added to nas short with more hqd.to @ 12.96
nas100 5 or so pts away from me being theoretically stopped out at close…
tlt disappointment, lets see tomorrow…
Long SDS for a holiday ‘surprise’ from overseas.
I like that thinking Hank….very creative and unique! So far, my SDS stop hasn’t been breached, but I’m getting nervous that this Santa Rally is going to just drift higher until Dec 31st. We’ll see!
Nice going Jim on those trades.
My triangle fizzled. Although it has moved to the upside slightly, it really hasn’t moved robustly toward the 1126 target…and it kind of just drifted out the apex, so I’d give it a fizzle at this point. Hardly surprising given the light volume.