Fall Guy
Somebody’s got to be the fall guy for Massachusetts, right? For a while there, it looked like it was going to be Bernanke, but he seems to have acquired enough votes to get re-confirmed. So now it’s Timmy Geithner’s turn on the chopping block for the AIG Bailout scandal.
And that means that we now have four mega-events for the day:
| 10:00am | - | AIG Hearings/Geithner Execution | |
| 1:00pm | - | Apple Product Announcement | |
| 2:15pm | - | FOMC Announcement | |
| 9:00pm | - | State of the Union Speech |
At least one of these should provide some fireworks for the market.
“Geithner Execution”? How funny!
I don’t do options, yet, but here’s a message from Strategy Desk with its new release:
“Soon you’ll see a new format for option symbols throughout the industry. The new format is more detailed, and simplifies the symbol by making it easier to see the essential elements of an option’s identification. Please note: You’ll need to upgrade to the new version of StrategyDesk, and update the symbols you’ve stored in your workspaces.
The new option symbol and description
You’ll see the new option symbol and a new option description throughout StrategyDesk – including in option chains, positions, order status, saved orders, order entry, and other windows.
Underlying security: WXY
Old symbol: +WXYGG
Old description: WXY Jul 135 Call
New symbol: WXY_071710C135
New description: WXY Jul 17 2010 135.0 Call
Important: What you need to do
On February 8, 2010, the old option symbology will be replaced with the new symbology.”
Here’s a SPY daily. It shows price below the BB. The previous two – or three – times, this was a buy.
http://i45.tinypic.com/111um8g.jpg
That plays into a strong wave 2/B wave up move to the 1115 area we have been looking for in EWT.
It may take a couple of days to do that, especially if it goes down to fill that weekly gap. However, I don’t think it will do that on this leg, maybe next downleg.
I mean, I don’t think the weekly gap will be filled on this downleg, although, it isn’t far away.
After the initial sell orders are exhausted, SPY will turnaround and go up a good percentage of the drop.
SPY is setting on the lower rectangle support line. Tale of the tape here.
SPY 5min morph’ed into bullish something. Old news now, but here’s what I’m watching.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2ee8xmf.jpg
Maybe that wasn’t bullish, just an accelerated down channel. Regardless, will see if it continues down or breaks out.
Here’s the “live” link if anyone wants to track that chart:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=de5021ff-6558-4d67-ac7e-a2d059e760bd
I’m the only person remaining on Planet Earth. All others have been assimilated by the SPYorg.
trend down. 1100 resistance and support 1080. Fireworks expected if 1080 breached.
I am here George. I have been sitting here listening to Timmy lie his ass off. I also am wondering why the man has no eyebrows.
String
Stringm,
Good to hear from you!
No eyebrows? I used to be that way until I got older, now I can’t cut them fast enough.
Maybe he loses one eyebrow hair for each fib he tells.
Then again, it could be Tammy instead of Timmy.
SPY back over the lower rectangle line, or better still, it has broken out to the upside of that falling channel. That was a trigger.
SRS/URE pair have been winners so far today. At least until it goes into “creep” mode.
How ’bout that BBT?
No eyebrows and two mouths, and he can talk out of either one of them.
String
Ha! I wouldn’t want his job. There would be too many mouths to feed.
Looks like they are flatlining to keep everyone guessing. Who will benefit from a dash lower? Will it help Ben?
If you shave off your eyebrows, it makes your forehead look bigger. That makes you look like more of an egg-head, and people think that you’re smarter than you really are.
SPY has disappointed. No goosie to the upside. Thought it would be rippin’ a new one. It is slipping on the 5min and needs to catch a bid soon or down it goes to Davey Jones’ locker.
SPY is only .50c away from filling that weekly gap.
Ah, SPY could be consolidating after that little breakout and yesterday’s close is acting as resistance. So, another breakout is needed before moon shot:
http://i47.tinypic.com/i22brk.jpg
Will the measly 5min 36MA be able to keep the mighty SPY from advancing? If the 5min MACD goes a tick down, that dog won’t hunt.
Matt
He looks like a head alright, but I was thinking of something besides an egg!
String
URE made about a 50% retracement. If spy does the same thing, that would put it around $109.50 which has good resistance.
BBT up ~$1.00 from yesterday. Got .40c because of missing the gap. At tops now.
Am here too George.. been working backwards from the landslide I got caught in .. always put a stop!.. always put a stop!
.. looking forward to the Apple event .. market didn’t even whimper at their stellar returns ..
Sam,
Interesting about you stop comment. I finished a course and the guy said their analysis proved that more profits were made without stops as opposed to using them. The bad news is, there could be a long draw-down and waiting period for the profit.
I’ll see if I can find those stats.
iPad pictures:
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/live-from-the-apple-tablet-latest-creation-event/?sort=newest&refresh=0
Now that’s a big iPhone! Too big for me. Either I have a netbook, laptop, or iPhone; small or larger with complete functionality, one or the other.
George, I’d be interested in looking at it. I wonder if that analysis was from the scalper perspective.
I sort of stopped using stops, but seems that they might be the only “Black Swans” protection that one can set up. But then day trading is tough anyways.
SPY wanting to work a double bottom to hold or break.
Sam,
I think it depends upon the type of trader and time frames being traded. I suppose it’s like everything else, it a trading method is constructed around stops then they are okay. On the other hand, not using them is okay as long as a person understands the ramifications of that decision and what to expect.
I do a mixture of both because I trade twins (underlying and inverse) so I have built-in protection. If I were to trade AAPL, I would definitely use stops.
Yea I agree, everything is quite subjective in trading.
I wonder what the pricing is like on that tablet.
Good question. Seems all of those things start out around $350, depending upon options. This one being bigger could cost more.
What am I thinking? SPY has to wait until the bewitching hour, 3pm to do anything.
Meanwhile, hug them inverses!
Apple’s iBooks app makes Amazon’s Kindle look like something from the Stone Age…
I’m going to short the print media, long the security companies. That’s my market neutral trade for 2010-2011
FOMC announcement in 5 minutes.
How much did Apple pay CNBC for the
better than sliced bread promo?
XLE bid/ask 5c wide!!
Bet there are green shoots by days end.
Wow, nice volatility.
Ah that was pre-fomc spread widening .. rates are gonna stay low .. comeon rally stocks!!
A break under SPX 1087 targets SPX 1050.
Govt. working overtime to pump-up market.
Fed tried and failed so far.
Where will market close tomorrow George?
Someone hit the market with a program trade.
Was it you George?
Paula,
Ha, good question. Most likely in the red.
SPY did a 5min 61.8 retracement *exactly* from the previous high. It’s working on a Humpty on the 15min.
Some other program traders seem to have hit back and killed the rally
What teams are going to the superbowl? I need to check out their uniforms.
If the SPY daily puts in a doji, there could be a retrace since it has been down for 6 days.
Too many “ifs”. Real iffy.
Depends upon which teams are going to the superbowl.
Both BBT and ICE woke up today. Nice intraday swings.
I’m long so betting on the upside
up move not upside – counting my chickens a bit
SPY 15min MACD is strong but it is under the zero line so it has some work to do.
Green shoots all ’round.
George keep your eye on KRE.
Paula, thanks. Will do.
Agree wave ii up right now. SPX, INDU, COMPQ possible expanded flat encompassing FED freak-out fall as the bottom of the B wave. RUT didn’t have that… a regular flat. (OR we are just in an A wave now).
Anyhow, more importantly, we flashed a 13,34 EMA cross-down on the daily today. Trend is down. Looking to reload non-core shorts when the corrective wave looks to be complete. Expect it will take 2-3 days, but time is always harder to judge. All JMHO, naturally.
wave 2 until Ben is confirmed?
I had to move the moon to the right but it’s almost there now.
http://i47.tinypic.com/30w7aro.jpg
Yerk and George: ROFL!!
George, please move the moon a little further to the right.
JG,
Moving the moon right now.
Notice it’s blue…
George, thanks… and good to know (as I only ask once in a blue moon—lol).
Hey guys, looks like we had the expected fireworks…
Hey K,
Fireworks aplenty. Sorry you missed it – if you did.
i did i did. but i sold another one of my macs. 3 down 2 to go
sold for $600 .. lol people really love AAPL.. must buy stock!!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/S2BZBbXap4I/AAAAAAAAGEw/ZGCHJ6jrgLg/s1600-h/comp.png
Gang
I don’t know about y’all, but I got a problem with Timmy. I mean I don’t need a guy with no eyebrows ranting and raving about how he has been a public servant and saved all us poor ignorant folks from a far greater pain had he let AIG fail. The problem is, they handed out money they didn’t have to hand out. They also changed the accounting rules on mark to market. Without the 13 billion Goldman got from the taxpayers, there would not have been a bonus earned. If banks had to say what all the crap on their books was really worth, there would be no bonuses. I sit here and can tie up money for 5 years and earn 3%. Not knowing if inflation is about to eat me alive. So Yea I’m pissed, and no these F**Kers don’t get it.
String
The president is getting applause for creating millions of jobs.
Absurd.
Futures are up 2.5 points since the speech began.
did anyone see this quote : UK economy lies ‘on bed of nitroglycerine’ – top financier
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/26/uk-economy-debt-bob-gross
Stringm for Prez!
obama just lost me! 1 term president indeed
Futures are up a few more points. At 1101 now.
George,
I told Julie and Mom that you were one of the
world’s great wordsmiths. Both agree. Your
book would sell millions.
K,
Looks like we are in the same camp now. Obama
lost us a long time ago.
I can just see my moon shattered in the morning. “They” are finally getting it?
George,
Your book should be titled “The George Wave”. Maybe one day it will be as popular as the Elliot Wave.
Matt
Paula,
I dont know if you voted for him or not nor do I want you to reveal it if its personal but I did vote for Mr.President since it was the best of both evils. He started strong and now the living lights have been sucked out of him.
Jokes are good but not how he used his.
“we will have a 3 year freeze AFTER we spend another 12 trillion bucks in 2010″
Are you kidding me? Reduce $2 trillion in 2 decades or something?
Creating goods in the USA and imposing export tariffs and rules and the world has to still play by them?
Goods in the USA at $1/hr sure are exportable.. goods over $5/hr are not how the free market works. others have competitive advantage.
Lala Land is dead and here come the zombies roaring back for more flesh and cash
Timmy with no eyebrows? He sold them on ebay to make enough money to pay off his taxes
Paula,
Thanks
I’m flattered. I’ve never thought about my being a good writer but I am glad you all do. What would I write a book on?
K,
It has been a long time since we voted for
either of the two parties who run and have
ruined (our opinion) this country. We have
come close several times to sending a third
party Rep. to Congress here. Will keep
trying.
Matt,
“The George Wave” – LOL
George,
Matt gave you a good idea.
OMG,
“Timmy with no eyebrows? He sold them on ebay to make enough money to pay off his taxes”
Sooo funny
Nice link admin,
.. strong words from Bill Gross. Soros might get up and do his currency trade, trillion pound short this time around!
oops that was after’s link
Jorge la ola con Tres Amigos y Tres Cruzar.
George,
we’re a funny bunch here huh?
write that book. i’ll buy the covers for $0.99
K,
That’s right. You’re the “cover guy”. I’ll even put your mug on the cover; that way the price would be higher.
George,
A book with K’s mug on the cover would
sell for at least $50.00.
Futures over 1102 now. Could we get a gap up over the 1103-1105 resistance and shoot for the moon? I’m just looking for 1115…that’s all. Then I’ll look for the exit on the SSO crack I bought today at 1086 and get ready to start playing the “wrong way” as they say at the craps table. Tell El-arian I’m looking for one last sugar high please.
Missed the Prez due to choir rehearsal, but obviously he was his charming self and his peeps bid the futures up. Reality is gonna smack some people really hard this time around when the market tanks, deflation sets in, and the true pain of our country’s profligate ways comes home to roost.
Any ridiculous GDP predictions from the group? Bill Tatro, a local radio host on a financial news network and economist, thinks 5.5% could be the ‘stimulated’ number announced. That would be two quarters of growth, and therefore, the recession would officially be over. Yeah….right.
I missed Timmy Pinocchio today too. Too busy making money the old fashioned way: running a small business! But I managed to set up my autotrades to swing the market pretty well.
Good trading to all. Brinks trucks will be coming very soon after this momentary pause to suck the bulls in.
Paula,
I’m thinking that’s about right. It wouldn’t even need any content, which would be extra of course.
His .99c a cover is so he will make a million. The guy is smart.