Wednesday’s Trading
TNX Time
After the bond pits close in the afternoon, stocks are free to act crazy. I believe that is at 3pm because that’s when I stop getting TNX quotes. The TNX was taking a beating Tuesday, and so were stocks, until 3pm. Take a look at the intra-day chart. Was it a coincidence that the last-hour rally started right after the bond-buying was done? Probably not. I have noticed this pattern a few times. If somebody wants to move the market, be it the big funds, the PPT, or the put-writers, it makes sense to wait until the bond traders are done.
We already know that we need to be alert around 3pm, and this may be a big part of the reason why.
Sagging XLF
Even after a last hour surge (which George played like a maestro via UYG), XLF chalked up a new bear-market low close, and a new intra-day low. Perhaps the financials are sinking because Hank Paulson said that he was done spending TARP money today. Paulson said that he will spend only for emergencies and try to save the rest of the money for Obama.
If traders were thinking that financials were going to get the whole $700 billion, then it makes sense that the stocks would fall. Especially when you just know that Obama is not going to give the rest of it to banks. The Democrats are already agitating for the money to go to other things, and that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Each UAW member is going to get a solid gold mansion just like the one that Chester J. Lampwick had in that old episode of The Simpsons.
Deflationistas 1, Inflationistas 0
Today’s record plunge in the PPI scores a point for deflation over inflation, or stagflation. See the chart at Bespoke. Go Team Deflation!
November 19th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Matt,
On deflation - wasn’t much off the PPI drop a result of falling oil?
Won’t the lower energy cost have a stimultive impact?
I think your erosion thesis is on the mark. Projected earnings are snowballing down hill. If there is a year end rally, shorting into next quarter’s earning season will be easy money.
George,
I played along on UYG, bought at $5.74 rode it down and back up. selling it AH for 5.92. - Thanks that was fun.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:30 am
Newbie, the dramatic fall in Home Equity Loans, Credit Cards, general debt levels and income will most likely dwarf any stimulative effect from lower oil prices. The consumer will enter 2009 with much less cash and much less credit. And he has to pay interest and down payments to the banks. The consumer is toast.
The consumer (and the Chinese factory owner) will bid down the oil price in 2009. The only wild card is the US Dollar and where speculators will hedge an eventual turnaround in its recent fortunes.
As Matt has pointed out before, the people who follow narrow money supply statistics has seen this fall in commodities and this recession for a long time. Not many people follow this statistic. Goldman Sachs doesn’t follow it and that’s why they made the worst call of the century this summer on oil.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:32 am
Newbie, I will join you in that one after New Year’s
November 19th, 2008 at 4:42 am
@Matt, many thanks for your great posts. I’ll keep an eye on tnx-timing.
@Larry, the consumer will enter 2009 with much less cash and much more credit - his assets are devaluating faster than his debt.
@Newbie: Petrol will get way cheaper imho as the consumer cannot afford it and businesses do not need it as they scale down production - and this effect will come as a real surprise to the resource bulls over the next months. In addition, the exporters have to pump as much as they can to stay alive. Russia needs oil exports to finance its govt: 40$ export tax. Shoot. Solution a)cut taxes and state goes bankrupt or b) don’t cut and oil companies go bankrupt first. Until this mess is decided upon pump harder to make some money… About 1931 oil price imploded for a short period to almost nothing.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:53 am
@Yerk: Billionaire Merckle is going belly up. He needs desperately some money injections. Around a billion €. A billionaire who needs a billion!!! Schadenfreude!!! LMAO
November 19th, 2008 at 6:52 am
@Dressguard: Now I’d like to know who is going to take the tab for the other 19 billions?
November 19th, 2008 at 7:03 am
That made my day: Solarworld offering to buy Opel. Solarworld down only 16% - is GM going to rally?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/solarworld-offers-buy-four-gm/story.aspx?guid=%7B01B4E36B-762B-4225-8B7B-D27D6153C82C%7D&dist=msr_1
November 19th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Simply WOW!!! Thanks for the link, Yerk!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 7:50 am
It’s unbelievable (and scary) at the speed at which the world economy is slowing down.
———————————————————
BASF Abandons to Target to Match Last Year’s Profit Level - Nov. 19 (Bloomberg)
BASF SE, the world’s largest chemical company, abandoned a target to match last year’s profit level on slumping demand.
The company will close 80 plants, the Ludwigshafen-based company said today in a DGAP statement.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Fear is in the air.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Flu is in the air.
I have a form of it. I may do limited trading between shivers. This was my bonus from WV and OH. I’m glad you all are not near me.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Won’t be long and AAPL will be in the 70s… the bottom will be in. I’ll buy it as a core position.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Fear is in the air.
And in a lot of pants, too.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:49 am
I love the smell of fear in the morning, though it may be the put-writers trying to move a few more October puts before Friday.
George, sorry to hear about your flu. I’ve heard that they have a drug that is almost a cure for it. Don’t know how well it works though.
newbie, if Americans realize that they must now pay down their debts, savings from lower gas prices may simply go to pay down mortgages and credit cards.
November 19th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Why would the Q’ be so strong this morning?
November 19th, 2008 at 8:52 am
oops as i type they just dropped .15
November 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
BASF killed the dax today - dax down 2% more than US futures.
AFAIK BASF is the company which made the largest single investment in China. They built a copy of their main plant. Basic chemicals - boring stuff, you always need them. Stable demand…
November 19th, 2008 at 9:02 am
george. I got a form of it too. i I blame you haha.
yes id love for apple to break below 85.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:07 am
K, I am a generous person. I just wish you would have taken all of my flu and not a portion.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:08 am
George, get well soon! Don’t fight it, the market can crash another day as well
November 19th, 2008 at 9:13 am
TNX gapped down almost a full point this AM intraday. Now it’s climbing back. Looks as sick as me on all time frames. That’s what makes it look attractive for stocks.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Yerk, I think I’ll be trading on my death bed. At least one or two trades today. My whole body is sore - yuck.
I feel like death warmed over as it is…
November 19th, 2008 at 9:17 am
and george ya know I want to come to school and use my mobile phone to write this message. so i’m rejecting your flu offer. i’ll still hold you up on the apple deal for 70.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:22 am
K, I’ll be getting more UYG today, especially if it gaps down. We’ll see.
November 19th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Guys, read this - George to make you real sick
I’ve been waiting for the first chart almost a year now. Slowly we are getting to some real action.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/663-Dont-Believe-The-Rally.html
This guy is spot on, a bit too focused on America as we have a squadron of planes incoming which makes the ultimate solution more likely: “Air America is pointed nose down at 60 degrees in a full-power dive and we’re dangerously close to structural failure of the wings. … Historically there is only one other way out of the trap we are now in. Start a war. A really big one - big enough to kill a couple million Americans (reducing competition for jobs) and destroy a trillion or more dollars in American “stuff” (that will have to be replaced.) That option would truly suck.”
November 19th, 2008 at 10:04 am
ICE getting murdered this morning, looking for a good entry sub 60.
BBT off a buck, think it could go sub 25 with analyst downgrades. Only problem is Finerman shorted it - means we have a hard floor.
AAPL just won’t die, hanging around 90, 70’s only possible with a complete market meltdown - could happen anytime :o)
November 19th, 2008 at 10:18 am
In September before option’s Friday the market traded lower than maxpain on Tuesday, tanked on Wednesday, tanked again on Thursday and was saved by the actions of the SEC to hit maxpain on Friday.
Just as a reminder as Goldman and Citi are getting closer to their real values…
Of course history could repeat itself without intervention this time
November 19th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Sorry for the poorly worded reply @12:49 AM
Let me try again:
The general public makes poor financial decisions during the holiday season. Layoffs may make them rationally cautious, but cheap gas & big retail price reductions provide an irrational justification to spend.
Very real potential for better than expected retail news this holiday season.
That said, all the other wonderful news noted on the blog will be a big ship anchor for several quarters to come.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:38 am
The market seems kind of strong given the news this morning. I am guessing that the PPT is propping up the market and keeping it in the current range until Options X on Friday. After that.. I think it is a “look out below” situation.
BTW.. Crude supplies are up on slowing demand. I wonder if Cramer will stick to his bullish call on oil.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
BTW.. sorry you’re sick George. The markets are going to miss the added volatility you provide
November 19th, 2008 at 10:45 am
This blogger has an excelent record –was bearish for a long time but now thinks a major bear market rally is close.
http://deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com/
November 19th, 2008 at 10:57 am
UYG just went into oversold territory on the 1 min. Based on what I’ve seen over the past 5 days, once it hit it’s oversold condition on the RSI on the 1 min, it dropped further and then created a intraday positive divergence on the stochs before it managed to reverse.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Not sure if anyone will speculate, but with Citi in single digits, any chance GE could follow??? Just unbelievable the pummeling GE has taken when you think about the huge significance of their businesses to the national and international economies.
I think I am starting to lose it, market mania and madness is seeping in, maybe the market is indeed ready for a dead cat dance….er bounce…
November 19th, 2008 at 11:08 am
If we don’t get a turnaround to at least positive numbers today, I’m giving up the ghost on the move up to Max Pain numbers.
If not, I can not believe the greed and manipulation of Wall Street has finally been trumped by economic reality! Isn’t all this mess “priced in” as the pundits so fondly remind us all the time???
November 19th, 2008 at 11:15 am
$CPC put/call ratio has spiked up like its crash time - before the crash. As soon as we rally we gonna rally hard.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:19 am
I agree with Yerk that with so many people expecting a crash, it most likely will reverse so to cause the most pain across the board. I recall several options X weeks where many traders were whipped out of their positions or where huge gigantic rallies feasted on shorts on the final day.
Just wondering what a possible catalyst could be to spark this event. Automakers get a bailout? Money falls from the skies? Don’t know. The tape is weak right now, but not weak enough to justify a crash yet. We most likely test the 830’s range on the SPX today, but somehow at the end of the day, it gets rescued again.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:22 am
GE is 50% finance (funded short-term) and 50% capital goods. Toast.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Having said that, in a 5-10 year perspective. GE is cheap
November 19th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Left-Top-To-Right-Bottom-Pattern in the DAX:
http://www1.deutsche-boerse.com/parkett/DAX_chart_realtime.jpg
More than 5% down!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 11:34 am
If GE goes belly-up it will be a double wammy for the bulls. CNBC will be closed down and their pumpers begging for a job on WallSt. or in Washington. Well, at least a job that pays you for telling lies.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Larry, look at the BKH-chart… Getting cheaper, too
November 19th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Positive divergence appeared on the UYG chart. Dipped into oversold twice on the 1 min chart. Might be ready for a bounce if some volume on the buy side appears. Let’s see if it goes into oversold levels on the RSI a 3rd time though. Looks like it is going for it.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Touched the 20 line on the RSI, but didn’t go below. Seems like UYG is in store for a potential play here @ 5.16 / share.
November 19th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Big test coming up
November 19th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Let’s see if the 36 MA on the 1-min UYG chart holds. If it does, then that is a good sign.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
That’s some serious panic talk in Congress. “We’re in the last days of this country surviving.” Is that what the gentleman from N.C. said?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Larry, he seems to be a reader of Karl D.’s blog
November 19th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
That’s some pretty scary talk Larry!
November 19th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Stay safe folks.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
BBT sub 25
ICE sub 60
AAPL Sub 90 (were headed towards 70’s anyway)
GE headed back to 14’s
But, doom is too pervasive, we are going to get a HUGE bounce sometime today or tomorrow…
November 19th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I guess that was just a dead cat bounce on the UYG. Still see it consolidating though. Not quite ready to rally yet.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
My god, is SKF really trading at 209??? This normally would mark a top in this ETF, bolting my stomach to my spine and nibling on some DDM right here.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
MSFT sub 19 - are you kidding me???? Also grabbing some MSFT right here.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Quite a bit of buying of UYG at this intraday double bottom.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
The XLF is a dollar away from single digits.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
And the question Matt is that now that we are a hair away from a crash.. can someone pull a rabbit out of their hat to save this market so that institutions don’t have to pay out big bucks on options X?
November 19th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Charlie,
Maybe. Last month, the rabbit was Warren Buffet publishing a “Buy, Buy, Buy!” editorial in the New York Times on opex Friday morning. I’m sure that they have something planned, but I have doubts about how effective it will be.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Somebody has been buying calls. If the QQQQ could be pushed up to $28, 66,403 puts could snuffed out. However, 85,892 calls would come into the money.
The situation is a bit different for SPY. There aren’t as many calls open, but there is a large slug of puts (143,532) at $85. So, that might be an alternative, lower target than max-pain which might not be achievable again this month.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
I think that I would add some shorts if SPY could bounce up to $85. I’m also thinking about playing a throw-back test of the breakdown. So, after the SPX plunges into the 700s, it will likely stage a throw-back rally back up to 800, and that might be a good spot to get short in size. It might be safer since the market will be oversold as is falls through 800, but at the peak of a throw-back rally back up from a lower level, it might be able to get itself overbought.
Also, I’m not sure the market can make a viscous whipsaw like it did in the last hour yesterday. I think it can only do that once enough shorts have built up. And since we just burned them all off yesterday, we might have to go lower to build them back up again.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Good point Matt, still holding long for the chance of a whipsaw today or tomorrow, with tight stops of course!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
SPY made a higher low and now a higher high. UYG is also back on the move now.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
There is also another inverse HS formed on the 1 min SPY chart. One of the many thousand’s we’ve seen during this bear market
November 19th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
note that several index charts have descending triangle patterns on hourly charts WITHIN continuation patterns on daily charts.
Sense a coiling of energy that could be released to the downside after another tepid rally.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I will resist buying all these cheap ass stocks. pardon my language.. I know at the bounce I will regret but at the crash I will cry. I think we tested the low way too much and time to break down.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
K, did you get out of your UYG or do you still hold some?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The market was trying to bounce until the FOMC minutes hit at 2pm. The Fed is very negative on the economy, and the S&P rolled right over.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I think there was a round of short covering right up to 2pm and then the market got smacked up the side of the head with the FOMC mins.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Did someone just flip the on switch for the buy program?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
FED negative and either still lying or clueless, maybe both!
Whatever they say, it will be much worse.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
What do I have to put a big red candle on my Christmas wish list to get one?
November 19th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I have no doubt the government is lying. It will also be much much worse than they are saying. Recession till mid next year probably means 2010.. but Matt already predicted that months ago.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
By golly Batman.. I think we’re turning!!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Bull flag forming on the 1 min SPX chart.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
And the break upwards 5 seconds after my post!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Uck, woke up from hibernation around 3. Loaded up on UYG. Positive time frames all the way up to 30 minute.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Charlie, good job! You’re acting as replacement for George
XOM nowadays part of the ppt?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
The bulls are really entertaining. They are not giving up. Time for a rear naked choke á la Kenny Florian.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
No volume to push the market higher.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
You’re a crazy man George.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
846.92 is the low close for the SPX, so that’s the number to beat today.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Dressguard,
The choke is on, but bulls have thick necks. Maybe they can shake it off for one more day.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Big double top SDS 1, 5, 15 minute.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Seems to me that the financials will determine if the bulls stay alive today or not. They are the leading decliners. George has already taken his position and has gone long on UYG. I’m still watching as I am not seeing the volume.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Also interesting to note that we are 5 mins from 3:30 <- which is when the big boys come out to play. We are also only a few points from testing the low from a few days ago. Will the 2 coincide and we get a MOAR on our hands?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Man of the Day: Steve Ballmer. Destroys $2bn of valuable American market cap with a few words: “We’re done with buying Yahoo!”
November 19th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
lol Dressguard. That is pretty funny.. to me at least. It’s amazing it took him so long to figure that out.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Wow, look at BBT. Watching the 5 minute on that one.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
If this is part of that broadening pattern, there should be a significant move up soon.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
SKF up 32 bucks, and I didn’t get in that why?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
George,
It’s hard to tell when a broadening pattern is done. I consider the appearance of a broadening pattern to be bearish in general, and I don’t count on them to hit the top of their range more than once or twice.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Are you a buyer of BBT George.. or will you wait? Speaking of which.. ICE is below $60 again.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Big massive buy candle going on 1 min UYG.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
oops.. and turned red.. lol.. no conviction. I wonder if the PPT screwed up and hit the sell button instead.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Charlie;
I’m waiting on BBT 5 minute to give me a signal.
Thanks, Matt.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
NEW LOW on SPX!!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
The TICK has been in negative territory for about 30 minutes now. Yesterday, it rocketed above zero at about 3pm, so its very late today. As I mentioned earlier, you need shorts to squeeze to get this dog to rally, and it’s starting to look like we don’t have enough today.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
It’s time for the bulls to start an attack. There won’t be much cushion left for tomorrow to defend the 8000 points in the DOW.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Not seeing the large surge of buying as people were expecting at this level. Seems like all the bulls are standing around looking at each other wondering who will jump in first.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
We could get a 7 “handle” on the SPX today.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Matt.. what is a 7 “handle”?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Now SKF up 37 thanks to me.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
the beginning of the end
November 19th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Charlie,
It means that the number will start with a “7″. So, if we close at 799, then the SPX will have gone from an 8 handle to a 7 handle.
Matt
PS. 7 handle for Dow too maybe!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Team Erosion in the red zone, getting ready to run it up the middle and into the end zone!
November 19th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I shouldn’t be cheering this. I am only cheering myself for making a good call.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
SPX will close at 801 and Dow will close at 8001. Ms Market likes to keep us in suspense.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Too late to buy. I’m just watching in awe.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Matt, let me cheer you for making a good call.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Dressguard,
Thanks. If everybody listened to me, they would all be rich and there would be no depression.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
SDS approaching double top 60 minute.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:00 pm
It looks like $84 SPY will be resistance for any rally
November 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
WTG Matt!
November 19th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Thanks George.
The Dow has a 7 handle, but the SPX is still holding its head high with an 8 handle.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
If everybody listened to me, they would all be rich and there would be no depression.
But we all love depressions.
DOW closed below 8000. Just for the record.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Matt let me pile, on that was great call! I almost shorted SPY this morning with a stop @ $87. I was late to work so I blew it off. I am glad to see that it would have worked out well which adds confidence
November 19th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Folks, have a look at the weekly chart opt expiry in September and this week… Candles almost identical so far. What will happen tom at noon?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Matt, LOL - what would happen if everyone had shorted the market? They could all buy them a new GM and a new house
Thanks for your guidance!
November 19th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Yerk,
Yes, taking out the bottom is a process. The market could easily pop back above and zig-zag up and down for several days before finally taking up residence in 700 land.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Hey Matt.. that was a great call. I was so tempted to short this morning too, but was waiting all day for a pop to short into. Was thinking the PPT would put up more of a resistance, but they didn’t.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
C down almost 25%. Critical point now. Could lead very quickly to a run on the bank in foreign countries where there is no protection of deposits. Would have a domino effect on C. I am a C customer in Germany. When I am back in Germany next month I will withdraw more money and stuff it under my mattress. My mattress has become very uncomfortable during this year.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Hi Matt,
Could you please email me? I need to speak to you in private.
Thanks,
John
November 19th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Please no love affair. Could lead to blindness. We still need Matt in the future.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Matt, does the reverse DNS look up indicate JJ is from the govt?
November 19th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Dressguard, deposits in C are guaranteed by the German govt. They had to introduce govt backing after LEH killed the self-funded insurance of deposits at private banks in Germany… Or do you think Germany is going down - now you make me nervous
I expect some surprise action in financials tom. Gut feeling - don’t trust in free markets anymore.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Okay, fair enough.
I’ve been going through a really hard time with the markets and my nerves are shot. But the fact is, I need to get a grip and be able to hold on to a position for more than a few moments or a day with conviction. Call me an amateur, a wimp, or blame my DNA, but I missed this huge opportunity which Matt had convincingly laid out. I just need some advice and staying out of the markets is not an option at this point.
Matt, I keep hearing of this so called “bear rally” that’ll last for months. Do you see this as possible? I can’t imagine it to be with tax loss season and deleveraging still going on. What would be the best strategy for a person who can’t or shouldn’t be at the screen all day?
Thanks,
John
November 19th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
charliw I still own 200 UYG. got more at 5.02 then headed to investment class and pitched in Matt’s TNX idea on my weekly presentation.
I am waiting for a black swan.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Hey Charlie,
you must be sounding like a superstar in your class with this TNX concept. I think that Matt has it spot on though. Also, if you read the article from Yerk this morning about CDS rates, then you’ll understand that conditions are not improving as we are led to believe by the talking heads on the tube.
November 19th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Hey Charlie?? why are you addressing yourself??.. Been a long day.. Charlie, you should really stop talking to yourself…
I meant K of course.. lol
November 19th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
K, watch out for the next bird of the year tomorrow. High probs IMHO.
JJ stay out of the market until you know what you are doing (this is not an investment advice, but a general advice)
Charlie, CMBS not CDS. But CMBS are correlated with CDS
November 19th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
@Yerk: I know of the so-called “Einlagensicherung” (protection of deposits) and chancellor Merkel’s guarantee. But the protection of deposits won’t work in a run on banks. This protection only works if a smaller bank goes belly up and all the others jump in order to keep confidence. If you have a bigger bank it won’t work. Regarding Merkel’s guarantee: I don’t know of any concrete legislation that would actually support it. It’s just political bla, bla, bla. to keep the masses quiet. Even if there was they can’t guarantee all savings. That’s complete bollocks. My motto is: Better be safe than sorry. (Btw, Germany’s C has been sold to a French bank a few months ago. But so far it hasn’t been finalized.)
November 19th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
BTW.. does anyone besides Charlie know where I can get a view of the daily VWAP? I’ve heard that it is a very important bit of info.
November 19th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Closed all SHORT positions.
Went long and will add in case we see some more downside.
Could go lower 15-20 points on SP and 100 on Dow.
November 19th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
I also quoted this blog haha.
but what do the kids know.
Last week with BAC at 18 they wanted to average down at 15. I got half the people on my side I said don’t get a loser… well we averaged down and now we will get screwed by a bank too big to fail
November 19th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Matt,
What do you think of this chart?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_eIaNQcLzuC4/SSCUjCmb_SI/AAAAAAAABQE/mO3bxQVymGE/s1600-h/How+the+Dow+will+perform.PNG
November 19th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
JJ,
I’m not a licensed financial adviser, so I’m pretty sure that it’s not legal for me to give you personal financial advice. But in general, the volatility of this market makes it extremely difficult even for professional floor traders with decades of experience. Most people really should stay out. I’m making money only because I’m very, very special.
But if you want to trade, don’t worry about missing today’s move. We have giant moves like that literally every day!
I don’t see a sustained rally any time soon. You need to have a catalyst that people can believe in. What could it possibly be? We used to rally because “the government has saved the system” but nobody believe that any more.
Of course, we will have a steady stream of short-covering rallies. So, my strategy is to wait for two or three or fourteen days of selling and lots of dumb-money shorts to build up. Then I will be on alert for “the spring” and maybe try to play the geyser rally when all those shorts get squeezed out. Or I might just snooze through it and then short the geyser after the Dow has sprung 800-1000 points.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
JJ,
I don’t take the Dow seriously. It is a ridiculous “price weighted” index of only 30 stocks that are periodically changed, and is a total anachronism. Nobody in their right mind would create such a thing today. Anybody can increase their forecasting abilities by ignoring the Dow. I also think its better to look at the ETF’s because those are what get traded in gigantic volumes. So when I make charts, they are almost always of SPY, QQQQ, IWM, and XLF - the big four.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
My apologies to the thread. I was beating myself up for not staying with what would have turned out to be a successful trade. I would have been up 8%. So, I’ve decided to wait for a decent bounce then try to short the market again.
Cheers,
JOHN
November 19th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Thanks for your comments and advice, Matt.
Much appreciated!
JJ
November 19th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Nouriel is ridiculing Buffet in his latest article: A cacophony of delusional bulls – including allegedly savvy investors such as the Sage of Omaha and other luminaries…
I have to say this Buffet crap is pissing me off too. Almost every week you hear on Bloomberg TV and other media: “What is the oracle of Omaha buying?”. Give me a break. This guy burned money this year like never before. He is definitely not a good role model for our up-and-coming stock traders. He even went out a few days ago to tell everybody to “Buy, buy, buy” thereby kindling a premeditated short squeeze. Fleece someone else, Buffet.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Nouriel read my posting: the Dow may reach the 7000 before year end
cf. http://www.trivisonno.com/tuesdays-trading-18#comment-19266
November 19th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Dressguard,
If your prediction comes true, they will have to take the “D” off of the Dow and just call it the OW, because that’s gonna sting.
Matt
November 19th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
lmfao this last comment is so true!!!!
November 19th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
PPT HEHEHE
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=931599105
November 20th, 2008 at 12:27 am
It looks like HPQ is pulling a Wiley Coyote. I see a downward channel since late September. We are near the top of the channel so I put in a short order at $34, which was also resistance today. I will add to it if we get a rallly.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:27 am
@K very funny video on PPT, thanks.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:37 am
Too funny: “Consolidate Chrysler into GM and rename it “Government Motors”; it will save a lot of logo, business card, and dealrship signage retooling costs. ”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-GOOG-markets-TGT-HD-AMZN/index/a/20043/p/1
November 20th, 2008 at 1:08 am
I stayed up late to watch the futures print the first 7 handle, and they just hit 799. I had taken profits on my short earlier, but I put it back on just so that I could participate in the festivities.
November 20th, 2008 at 1:12 am
writing from mobile. was planning on a good night of forex trading… comcast raped me. no home phone no internet. WOHOOO.
newbie I found it funny too lol. I remember a few weeks ago asking in this board if PPT meant powerpoint hahahahaha
ok I guess early night for me
damn comcast