Wednesday’s Trading
More Hedge Funds Explode
Maybe it was these guys doing all the selling on Tuesday between 1:30-2:30pm.
The Banking Wolf Pack
Here is the WSJ article that I mentioned in the comments yesterday about how the run on Morgan Stanley in September happened. It’s a good review since we might see the same thing with Goldman Sachs soon when they release their horrendous earnings report. I’ve heard that they will have $2-4 billion in losses.
Candlestick Pattern
SPY has a potential bullish harami pattern on its daily chart. However, the volume pattern is backwards and the harami would normally come at the end of a down-trend, rather than a single down day like we had on Monday. So, it is not a perfect fit. Also, the McClellan Oscillator is still overbought, so even if the market could rally further, it’s not likely to get far.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:45 am
Lots of interesting data out tomorrow morning so we will have to see if there are any surprises. Data most likely will be awful, but do we get that… “not as bad as we thought” and hence we rally garbage?
8:15 AM ADP Employment
8:30 AM Productivity-Rev.
10:00 AM ISM Services
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 am
Euro PMI: awful.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 am
We had the discussion yesterday about Hussman. Here is another guy from the value crowd - “stocks are dirt cheap”
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/125716
Have a look at the payout ratio before …
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 am
you read this: http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:20 am
so far today I see no new data from around the world that has beat consensus. only missed.
December 3rd, 2008 at 6:33 am
Dax trading aimlessly around the lowest possible launchpad for a move upward. s&p futures below 840 so chances are we get a gap close first.
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:02 am
Google translated… - you’ll get the idea :
The engineering and vehicle group MAN AG apparently expects a prolonged economic downturn. The crisis will likely last two to two and a half years longer than a normal downturn, said Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson on Tuesday evening in Munich. For the year 2009, MAN is on a sales slump in the truck business of about one third. The company plans, therefore, the lines in the first half year to stand still for 40 to 50 days, 3500 temp workers to go.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:22 am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -250K
let there be blood?
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 am
The Donald, watch out below!!! SRS looks golden.
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/the-king-of-capitalism-watches-his-empire-crumble-1559934.html
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 am
That is a pretty bad number K. Futures for DOW down around - 153 now, SPX is down -17 points.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:46 am
Right, the figures are bad, growing fast, and consistently revised down:
Date Reported Forecast Previous
Dec 08 -250K -200K -179K (Revised from 157k)
Nov 08 -157K -100K -26K (Revised From -8K)
Oct 08 -8K -55K -37K (Revised From -33K)
Sep 08 -33K -30K 1K (Revised From 9K)
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:53 am
Baltic Dry -1.8% to 672
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:02 am
FAZ is trading at $71 premarket, up 10.68%.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:11 am
Helmets ready?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:14 am
LOL — so Yerk, we’ll plunge at the open, but what will today look like? Like Monday, or with a renewed Battle of the Bears and the Bulls?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:15 am
BTW is there a limit rule on futures, or on how much we can go down at the open? 5%?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:21 am
Dollar back up after yesterday’s drop
Last trade 87.114 Change +0.577 (+0.74%)
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 am
Sell volume seems very low right now.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:42 am
Seems to be buying at the open.. Volume is pretty low right now.. much lower than yesterday. Bad sign for bears?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Is this low volume making anyone nervous?
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:55 am
This is pitched battle with neither side winning so far.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:59 am
I guess people are waiting for the ISM data @ 10?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 am
U.S. Nov. ISM services index record 37.3% vs 44.4 in Oct and below consensus 42.7%.
Courtesy of Marketwatch.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 am
i dont know but i have yet to see green data today.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 37.3 expected 42.5
YEAHHH WOHOOOO?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 am
if we do go up just because i don’t know anymore.
$tnx is up hmm maybe that’s why.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 am
ok tnx seems oversold since the 25th and wants to make its way back up. hmmm
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 am
ICE tell all.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 am
A lot is at stake right here — if we go up, the downtrend from Monday could be broken.
This UBS report may also sway buyers: “The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which tumbled 42 percent to 848.81 this year, may rally 53 percent to 1,300 by the end of 2009.” The hope of a return to the real good old days is very encouraging to people.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 am
My method has me in SSO right now.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
ICE leading the parade for a while until more bad news.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 am
… and UYG nice.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 am
OKay Im sort of new. George what is the ICE?? Charlie after a big run up I think the light volume might be good. SPY looks like its going up but as it gets to 84-85 the volume goes down. No fuel to push it any higher which may i suggest it will fall.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 am
George no ice when you feel sick!
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 am
UBS is bankrupt and their own people still don’t get it. Markets were driven up by extreme leverage. Leverage in 2009?
Oil report at 10:35. Brent crude at 45.2.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 am
George, what determines the price movements of ICE? It’s a commodities exchange — does it move with the price of oil and other commodities?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 am
On the QQQQ hourly chart, there is a potential head-and-shoulders pattern developing. The left shoulder is on November 24th, the head is on the 26th, and we might be making the right should right now. The volume on the descent from the head Monday wasn’t as strong as I would like to see, but it did exceed the volume on the way up to the head like it is supposed to. It also pushed prices down far enough to make it a down-sloping H&S.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 am
S&P @ 1300 in 2009? Has UBS no shame?
No don’t answer that question
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 am
Hi Matt-
So far the SPX has had an inside day.
If it ends the day that way, odds are
for a BIG move ahead.
Have a great trading day.
Sherry
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Way to go George on ICE
I was in and out of SRS so was fully occupied with scalping that one.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Here’s what I’ve been doing with these swings.
Entry: (Two setups to choose)
1) Wait for 1 minute and 5 minute stochastic to bottom around the 20 area. When 1 minute stochastic crosses and moves up along with MACD histogram, buy. 5 minute should be moving up, too.
2) Or, wait for the other setup which is 1 minute stochastic moving up with at least 1 tick on the MACD histogram. The 1 tick histogram is more assured. (Don’t worry about the 5 minute).
Exit:
If 1 minute stochastic goes up, hits 80, and has not crossed the 36MA, exit.
If stochastic hits 80 and has crossed 36MA, stay in until MACD histogram goes 1 tick negative, then exit wait until the 9MA crosses the 36MA.
This can be done on any time frame.
Works great. All winners.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
This just out.. falling crude inventories.. = positive for economy?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 am
…should be… “then exit OR wait until the 9MA crosses the 36MA.”
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
treasuries are finally recovering. hmm close shorts?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 am
hey george. did you know td ameritrade you could automate stock trading ?:D i just realized it. i will start backtesting strategies
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 am
Gap filled, now double bottom and tops on the pairs. SSO has the 15 minute advantage right now.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 am
George, are your ma’s EMA or just MA?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Also George, just to confirm, is this on the spy?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
SV;
This is SSO and SDS. I use SMA.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
Charlie, it means that oil is being stored offshore. This data might give support to oil price, XLE and the world’s by far most valuable company, Exxon.
Having said that, market seems to go opposite direction of all data points.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 am
tnx is jumping wow
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
SV;
That’s just a down-and-dirty scalp method. There’s other stuff that can keep us in a trade by going to each higher time frame and following the trend.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 am
Matt,
I haven’t been liking H&S–they’re all over the place. Potential QQQQ inverted H&S on Nov. 13, 21-24 (head), Dec 2. Also sloped. Thoughts?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 am
Like, in SSO right now, I switched to the 5 minute to let it take me out because it has crossed its 36MA. Or, I could continue monitoring the 1 minute and swing it.
SOOOO many ways to do it. Main thing is good entry, get profit and get out, wait for next setup. If trading pairs, next setup is immediate. Just bounce from one to the next.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Don’t try to guess what’s going to happen - just let it happen and ride it with the rules.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 am
George, what do you see on a 3 mth time frame? All hell breaks loose soon?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 am
since 10:30 treasury has skyrocketed. anyone covering their shorts yet?
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
ok screw this early lunch time for K. next time am using limits on my tza and faz
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Larry; wow, 3 months, let me check.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 am
bought some DXO 2x oil at 3.20
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:56 am
Larry;
The monthly is holding. It had that “spike down” which is what I’ve observed over the years to be some sort of bottom. The weekly is looking real good now that the daily is pushing it up.
December 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 am
SSO may be going for the intraday gap ~$26.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
If you ever wanted to make ez profits, trade UYG.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:01 am
I mean, low-cost ez profits. ICE and SKF is easy, too but costs more.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Hi Matt-
SPX inside day is no more.
Sherry
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 am
Now, when there’s a correction or the 1 or 5 minute cycle, either exit, get back in, or follow a higher time frame and stay in, OR, sell half and let the other half ride.
I don’t try to guess what will happen, just let the crossovers of either MAs, stochastic, or MACD take me out.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
Hey George—glad you’re feeling better. Welcome back!
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Thanks George.
3 mth t-bills at 0.01%
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:21 am
Thanks, JG… it’s been rough.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 am
Watch SPX around the 61.8 Fib–that would be about 865-866.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 am
SDS at its upper gap support so will be some volatility here until next direction is decided short term.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 am
On to the gap if SDS goes below 91.83.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 am
…if not, SDS goes back to at least the open price.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
junglegirl,
I see your H&S bottom. If it plays out, the Q’s will test the top of their trend channel that I showed in my chart yesterday. At the moment, the Q’s are approaching an overbought condition on the 60-minute slow stochastic, so maybe a breakout isn’t in the near future.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:53 am
Matt, I don’t think it will play out, just noting the pattern. My charts still tell me to play the downside, and hitting the 62 Fib is a short entry opportunity. Time will tell.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 am
So the Fed is getting into the automobile manufacturing business? The government has room to talk about running an organization? Hmmm
They’ll come out with the Pedofed where you pedal to work because you can’t afford a motor due to the high federal taxes.
Fasten your feetbelts.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
until then the fed will buy the market up - I don’t like this Goldman pre-release of numbers also.
One day it will be very rewarding to be shot the dollar - I so far am not sure against which other currency
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Nice to have you back George,
BTW.. this rally is starting to look pretty real to me.. which may be exactly what the market wants me to think.. so though I am starting to feel bullish, I should be actually shorting IMO
the 61.8 Fib level will be pretty critical. What is telling is interesting is that the buying volume today has been quite strong.. much stronger than the down volume on Monday (which didn’t really come in until the end of the day).
Matt.. are you holding your shorts still and at what time will you consider the rally real.. (for the time being at least).
The debate from a EW perspective is also if we’ve entered leg 4 of the larger EW wave. If that were true, we may be starting subwave 3 of subwave 1 of the larger wave 4.
Thoughts?
BTW.. exited all my shorts earlier in the morning .. very very glad I did that.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Charlie, I like your thinking.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
SDS hit the 1 minute double bottom and just doesn’t want to fill that gap down below right now.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
George,
I have been lurking on and off here for several months, and I am always intrigued with your posts. I started in September and you were hot and heavy into describing your trades. I had trouble following though because of inexperience and the fact that I am old, deaf and dumb. Then I was called off to work Hurricane Ike claims and could not follow often enough to catch up. I know you are busy trading and posting so I don’t expect to dominate your time with questions. If you can work these in during the evening or morning I will keep a running document. Then when you get a question from someone you can just post the “George Book of Trading”. You are free to ignore also, but you will dash this old man’s hopes of finding the trading Nirvana. If you have already compiled a synopsis it would sure tickle me if you posted it again.
String
1.Here’s what I’ve been doing with these swings.
Entry: (Two setups to choose) Need some names
1) Wait for 1 minute and 5 minute stochastic to bottom around the 20 area. When 1 minute stochastic crosses and moves up along with MACD histogram, buy. 1 minute sto crosses up. Is that %K crossing up over the 20 line or % K crossing up over % D.? MACD histogram moves up. Does that mean moves over the zero line? or does that mean MACD crossing up and over the signal line.
5 minute should be moving up, too.
2) Or, wait for the other setup which is 1 minute stochastic moving up with at least 1 tick on the MACD histogram. The 1 tick histogram is more assured. (Don’t worry about the 5 minute).
Exit:
If 1 minute stochastic goes up, hits 80, and has not crossed the 36MA, exit.
If stochastic hits 80 and has crossed 36MA, stay in until MACD histogram goes 1 tick negative, then exit OR wait until the 9MA crosses the 36MA.
This can be done on any time frame.
Works great. All winners
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:20 pm
picked up some FAZ (3x bear financials) on the break of the 20 MA on the 5 min for XLF.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Charlie,
I still have all of my shorts and added to my TZA earlier.
I have been trying to use TradeStation’s P&F charting, but it doesn’t seem to work right. So that’s as far as I’ve gotten there.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
The market caught a little a bounce after the UAW announced that they would consider re-opening their contracts with Detroit. Everybody says this is a done deal, but the market may still be worried about it. If the Democrats insist on getting the money out of TARP rather than DOE (?), the deal could be delayed. I don’t know why the Dems are insisting on TARP money. Seems like they are just asking for a fight from the Republicans.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Hey Matt.. I’d imagine that you’re pretty short now. You’ve been adding bits throughout this bounce it seems.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Dressguard,
Do you have a prediction for ECB tomorrow?
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Stringm;
Happy to help in any way I can. My “style” isn’t for everyone although I believe everyone could benefit from it once it is learned. Very straightforward and profitable if you don’t mind making scalps for day-trading. Some of the scalps are up in the bucks though.
There are some previous posts I’ve made but they may be hard to find. I am working to put this into a document. I’ve been delayed doing that recently and I hope to get that done at least over the holidays.
What I do can be done on any time frame, so if you are looking for a longer-term trade, higher time frames can be used (daily, weekly, etc.).
Hope this helps.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
People still selling SPY and also XOM on today’s strength. Net outflow of money up to noontime was - 90 million or so for both of them.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
George, what trading platform do you use? Are you on think or swim?
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Hey Matt, do you still like shorting GS at these levels?
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Stringm;
On a day like today, there is much profit scalping. I’ve already done 12 trades from .20c to $2.00. I’m not picky. It all adds up and is more than swing trading - been there, done that. I don’t try to stay in forever unless it gives me a confirmation. When that happens, it’s really nice. You can spot those when the stochastic on multiple time frames bottom out and start moving up.
Like, BBT made a move with the setup I described at 12:30 I’m in and out with .30c gain for 1,000 shares.
All day long.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
SV;
I use StockCharts and AskResearch charting. My broker is USAA - not really designed for day-trading but okay.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
George
I will trade any style that is profitable. I will look forward to your document. I seem to be confused if there are multiple trades as well as setups. I have noticed you speaking of the 15 minute being the master, and I suppose if higher time frames are used a new master would be picked. I can wait for the document though. I am retired and have till the end of my days. I don’t buy any green bananas though.
String
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
SV,
I rarely trade individual stocks. I only brought up GS because this market has a pattern of banking-induced panics.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Hi George,
My normal style is to swing trade. However, I have been trying to scalp intraday lately. What do you typically do when the position goes against you ? I usually try to add to the position and average down instead of taking a loss and closing the trade. Lately I have taken a huge loss because of that. I added four times to the losing trade and it kept going in the opposite direction of my trade. Do you have any suggestions ? Thanks.
December 3rd, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Charlie, look at the variation of the block trades to total money flow. There is a bigger difference in the block to money flow today than there was yesterday. I think this is key, but not sure what it means. What do you think?
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I think its bearish but why?
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Dressguard, Do you have a prediction for ECB tomorrow?
Matt, you have a very long memory.
I’m just now at the Dubai airport on my way to Germany. The rumour is ECB will go more aggressive cutting rates tomorrow. That might have been the reason for this partly insane rally in Europe. I really can’t say how much they will cut. Didn’t follow ECB policy lately. Sorry, Matt. Will do my homework next time. 
Sold all my positions before I left to the airport. Got really hammered the last week. Lost a fortune and will stay away from the stock market for a while. I’m having this March to May feeling again. No matter how bad the news is, the market shrugs it off and buys, buys, buys. This is very bullish.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Stringm;
I’m retired (early) too. I retired so I can do this - except for this blog, no meetings
and politics. I operate from an IRA and don’t worry about taxes, etc. Luv it.
I’m going to expand into FOREX, Futures (Matt’s suggestion) and other areas. I lack the ability to tell broad direction like Matt & Company and I’m trying to learn how to do that. It’s amazing how accurate he is.
Not to boast, but I make more now in a few months than I did in a year and I had a good IT management job.
You’ll love it. Even if you make $200 per day, still most likely more interest than you’re making in money market and lower-paying CDs. In any event, that’s additional income.
Plus, this keeps us young - lol!
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Hey SV.. I think.. if I understand it correctly is how much the volume, money in vs. out is relative to large block sales. Most of the down volume seems to be from blocks today.. but that seems consistent with what was going on from Wednesday - Friday of last week.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Stringm;
Side Note: I’m meeting with my step-son-in-law (?) tonight to get him interested in trading. I think he will do well. I’ll spot him and get him going. I’m going to teach him what I do but he will probably pick his own method that suits him. I’m hoping I can convince him to do this.
My wife picked up on this rather quickly. Her comment was “is that all there is to it?”… uh, yeah, after years of chopping through the jungle (no offense JG), it’s easy!
She’s cute.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Guys.. is that a bull flag on the XLF or is it ready to drop like a rock? Declining volume on this flag portion.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
We need to clarify. It’s relative yes, but what does the variation tell us? In other words, it looks like today the block trades to the downside are much larger than total our flow. Take a look at the ratio’s. Just wondering what if anything this indicates?
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
charlie not sure. but i think on the downside xlf will head to at least 11.28 in 5 min it hit the top bollinger band 100,3 at around 11am. but today doesnt seem to be my day just yet. although TNX is back at - even tho not much to make an impact
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
George
I have been using a system where I wait for a MA cross and a Directional Movement cross that occurs at the same time on a 60 minute chart. I then wait for a pullback on the five minute chart to enter. It worked pretty well up until about six months ago. I also work out of an IRA, but I will have to wait another year before I hit the 591/2 mark. Meanwhile I do adjuster work periodically for beer money. Again I look forward to your document..
String
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Bob;
Naturally, using a stop helps, but I rarely do that unless there are special situations. Truthfully, the only thing we know about a trade is how much we are willing to lose. That being said, it’s hard to figure out where to put a stop since they are usually hit! I put a stop at a stochastic low where I enter. I figure if it hits that, it isn’t going up anyway. Another thing is just to sell it quickly. It can be entered again, if needed, or at least buy some time for another setup.
However, if one does get “stuck”, here’s how to handle it.
One thing I do is trade the pairs like SSO/SDS, SKF/UYG. If you did that, you could jump into the other one to offset the loss - but don’t sell the losing one unless it looks like it is a tanker.
Another way is to add like you did, but only as a trade, i.e., leave the original, and when the stock bottoms, makes moves up, trade (scalp) those moves over and over. I did that a while back when I bought SKF EOD - it went against me. I would buy the 1 minute using my method, scalp, kept doing it, and after I believe 3 trades, I had a free trade. It came back with a vengence and I really made out. Kept me from having a losing trade, too. I prefer this method over any other.
Another thing. If you trade, say, BBT, it has a nice dividend. If you get “stuck”, you still make money waiting for it to come back. And, if you buy BBT always at a low on a 15, 30, 60 minute chart, you’ll never lose money.
Personally, I don’t trade many “strange” stocks. I stick to what I know very well like ICE, BBT, ANY of the pairs - in fact, they are the safest to trade and really, all a person needs. I used to do stock searches and all that, but the pairs are all I really need. I can make all the profit I need from those.
Hope this helps
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
if s&p breaks below 840 again am sorry but that’s it. NO SOUP FOR YOU
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Stringm;
The secret to any indicator is the next-higher time frame. Even using MAs, it should be pushing the next-higher time frame up - if not, it’s not a good cross. I use MAs to follow when trending, and say I’m using a 5 minute cross of the 9MA, I make sure the 36MA is crossing too.
My main method is using stochastics on two different time frames. But that goes for any indicator.
Try that and I bet you’ll have better results. Nothing wrong at all with MAs.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:47 pm
K;
Are you the soup Natzi?
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
GO SDS!
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
junglegirl made a great call at 11:53am. The 62 fib is the exact peak of the day so far.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
This market is wonderful for intraday traders.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
WTG JG - I need to learn those Fib areas.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
If SDS can make it to 100+ I’ll be a happy camper or happy scalper.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Hmmm, my charts don’t have Fibs.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm
George, YEZZIR i am the soup natzi.
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Ditto JG, you rock!!! The market looked absolutely bleak for shorts this morning and you made the call of the day!!!
This is the d@mn-est market I have ever seen…
December 3rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Dressguard,
Sorry to hear about your losses.
Yes, it is bullish when the market rallies in the face of bad news because it shows that traders are looking for dips to enter. However, this can be misleading when the buying is from shorts being squeezed. And these days, rallies are still being met by liquidating hedge funds. They still seem to have lots of energy and materials stocks to unload. For example, this morning’s rally has been killed off by the XME, XLE, and XLB.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 pm
i will hang on tight and not throw up my shares. but i cant help but wonder what george is doing to get some of the soup natzi’s soup! he’s propping the market up so i can give him soup!
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Hey K.. are you still in your FAZ or did you get out of all of your shorts?
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Man, I feel a “goosey” ending today.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:17 pm
…or should I say a “soupy” ending today?
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
At $12 round-trip, my broker luvz me.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I’m looking for $24.95 out of SSO.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:39 pm
charlie i’m still short FAZ and TAZ.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the big boys spike the 62 Fib, even close over it to create the illusion of higher lows and higher highs. Then we can have our gap up tomorrow, suck in longs, scare off shorts, and then start our sell-off. Wait and see, as always, but I still think we’re headed down.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:45 pm
SDS needs to hold here or there will be some naked bears.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Jungle girl, what is your high and low for your fib?
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:48 pm
This market is showing a LOT of strength. Made it to 860. Quite impressive.
December 3rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
SV,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p91118941500&a=156030877&listNum=3
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
S&P 60m we are trading in a upward channel since the last candle on Monday
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Perhaps traders want to be long ahead of the ECB’s rate cut tomorrow morning. If I were making that play, I would sell on the news and take any profits before the jobs report hits Friday morning.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Matt do you know what time the ECB meeting will take place?
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Still more selling going on for SPY today. So far.. since 3 pm, it is -102 Million in terms of money flow..
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Cant wait to see what will happen the last 15 minutes
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
triangle formation on SPY……wonder which way we breakout
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:35 pm
SV,
It’s early tomorrow morning. Here is a good calendar from K.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Just landed in Bahrain. Happy I sold my shorts. So it could have been even worse for me. I have the feeling the market wants to rally no matter what. I’m staying on the sidelines for a while. Hope I am disciplined enough. Back to square one.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
matt you adding shorts? or you’re just going to watch what happens? ecb and unemployment both clashing at 830am
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Just made a new intraday high on the SPX.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
K,
I like junglegirl’s gap-up open scenario for tomorrow. So I may do some shorting there. The TRINdicator should be very over-bought tomorrow.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Hey Matt.. have you sold any of your shorts since this whole thing began?
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Meaning since Monday
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Well, sold my SSO at 24.95, my target. Shutter down.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:01 pm
George called the close right at 2:16pm. Nice one George!
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Charlie,
Yes, I took profits on my BGZ.
Matt
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Matt are you still in on your spy?
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
FCX (Freeport copper and gold) gapped down twice today. Stated they have suspended their dividend indefinitely.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Wow.. SRS taken out back the tool shed and given another beating.. down to $115. Was trading at a high of close to $170 on Monday.
This market will eat you alive if you’re not careful.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
$SOX was really strong today - Infineon the German equivalent to SOX was almost cut in half today and dragged the dax down because of not so superb results… Something is dead wrong with the tape right now. Bulls need Friday’s highs to be taken out, bears 820.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Hmm.. I wonder if some of this optimism is related to the fact that the Big 3 are going back to Washington for some money. I guess the market thinks that the government would be just to evil to turn them away twice. I mean.. to make these grown men to beg for money more than twice.. that would be just too cruel..
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
You know I do foolish things, like holding puts on XOM whereas XOM must be pushed up to keep the dow (how stupid can an index be calculated) up. I should get some oil puts to cover them LOL
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Final totals for today:
Money flow out of the SPY was $-182.19. note that about 80 million of yanked out of SPY during the last hr of the day as it this number was about $-100 million at around 3pm.
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Wow, what a finish! On the money flow, block trades means institutional / large investors trading in large blocks of shares. Note that the negative block trades for yesterday are larger than the negative total — as far as I can see this means that professional investors were responsible for all of the net negative money flow; non-professional investors had a positive net money flow of +$54.03M. Today both were net negative, but almost all of it still came from institutional investors.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Good morning. Asia flattish. Who are these panic buyers in New York. Oil wants to go down, maybe it breaks 45 in U.S. tomorrow?
And yes Yerk, 400 bln USD is quite a lot for a company whose profits will plummet in ‘09. Add in the other energy companies and we have one way to go: DOWN.
30% short.
December 4th, 2008 at 12:45 am
Matt, what do you think of this mortgage rate drop the fed is trying to pull?