Are the Brits Buying Up All of Our T-Bills?
The UK’s CDS rate now exceeds that of McDonalds. Make sure to click the “Graphics” tab to see the chart. Maybe money is fleeing London for US bonds. Will governments eventually have to give up on bailouts to protect their own credit ratings? Or will they sail right over the cliff? Atilla thinks the UK will blow up soon.
Whitney on CNBC
Watch out banks! Meredith Whitney is supposed to be on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday morning.
Is There an Inverse Ruble ETF?
Vitaliy Katsenelson thinks that the Russian ruble will collapse. See his column in Forbes.
9 handles are covered with slippery honey that the bears left behind as a scorched-earth tactic. Bulls can’t hold on.
XLF down two days in a row. The banks can’t shrug off the bad news of the Tribune bankruptcy. It’s hard to shrug off the billions of dollars that JPM and others lost on bond defaults. Probably lots more of that sort of thing coming.
Matt, honey is sticky not slippery.
At least under room temperature. Not under severe pressure though. Bulls still strong but weakening. The more they wanna get a hold on the 9 handles the softener – and more slippery – the honey becomes. Basic physics at work.
IWM’s rally today mustered less volume than the day before Thanksgiving!
Thanks for this info, Matt. Getting more bearish now.
ICE is nuts George. It basically missed my $78 target by 1 penny with a hiccup in the middle before falling back down.
Bought 1 single SRS call option at the close. Got a great fill as it was shaked out of a paniced hand. We’ll see what happens in the next few days, but I either lose a few hundred bucks or I double or triple it
URE is grossly overbought and was gapping up crazy into the close.
dressguard. what’s a 9 handle?
jk hahahah
Guess what guys…. I signed up for OPTIONS in my account.
now I just have to learn options. got off my lazy behind and went into scottrade branch. wohoooo.
K, 9 handle means 900-something, 8 handle means 800-something.
Matt,
MACD lines:
Nov. 15 MACD bottom at ~-15 is start of line (1st hit).
2nd hit Nov. 26 ~ +3
3rd hit Nov. 26 ~ +5
breach Nov. 28 ~ 7.5
Dec. 5 MACD bottom ~ -10 is start of line
2nd hit Dec. 9 ~ -3 to -4
3rd hit Dec. 10 ~ -2
Looks like we are ready for the bear again shortly (pun intended).
thanks Junegirl
I was just messing with Dressguard. he told me last time.
So Big Ben Bernie suggest not bailing out GM, and Reuters explains that CDS exposure is not an issue:
http://www.reuters.com/article/privateEquity/idUSN0545478820081205?feedType=RSS&feedName=privateEquity
As per the link I posted yesterday collateral unfortunately is not being paid and there is a shedload of underfunded CDS out there.
“But alas, one of Wall Street’s dirty secrets is that most of the CDS dealer banks don’t post margin with one another at all! If CDS dealer banks were actually compelled to post real, effective collateral with other dealers to back performance, then the entire CDS market would collapse.”
Come on Ben, do the Lehman again. You learn so much about banking by doing…
Sorry K.
nah is ok. for some reason in my mind the term june girl is stuck so i called you above
now anyone got some starter websites on options learning? It might so so simple yet to me it seems so complex.
Matt,
Sorry, my 4:32 post should say Nov. 21 MACD at -15, not Nov. 15.
Looking at the bullish “corrections” to the drop after the election, i.e. main trend down, so upward moves are corrective.
junglegirl,
What criteria do you use to pick the starting point and slope of your MACD support line? Are you drawing them parallel to the black MACD line on your chart?
Matt
Massive volume on USO today. About triple the November daily average. USO formed an indecisive Doji candle and closed below Monday’s close.
What do you think of this?
It looks like it was a large battle with a slight edge going to the bulls since they are up on the week. Is oil really going to rally because of the “Miracle Chinese Recovery”?
Matt, I need your expert opinion.
Rising wedge?
http://twitpic.com/rsfu/full
certainly a break of 884 would suggest it.
Danny,
Yes, it is a wedge so far. See what I wrote here:
http://www.trivisonno.com/spy-rising-wedge-2
Matt
Ah, I missed that one. Thanks
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/welcome-to-the-new-bull-market-2125.html
wow
Matt, try this:
http://tinyurl.com/5jq4dc
junglegirl,
I’m still not getting it. Your second MACD support line doesn’t touch any of the MACD bars or lines. I have a feeling that StockCharts is shifting the lines when I look at them.
Matt
K,
I think that some people split the last bear market in two also. The recovery after 9/11/2001 was sufficient to technically end the bear market. But then a “second” bear market started soon after. So, it depends on how you define a bear market. I prefer to think of the 2000-2002 bear as one long bear instead of two smaller ones because it spanned a full down-phase of the business cycle. The Fed had rates high in 2000 and brought them to a low in 2002.
Matt
Are you using MACD 12, 26, 9?
Second line (completely separate from first), starts on Dec. 5 at the MACD signal line bottom around -10. Then I extended it up to the next signal line trough on Dec. 9 at around -3 to -4. Hope that helps.
junglegirl,
I’m not changing the MACD settings; just looking at your chart. For some reason StockCharts is distorting the chart when I look at it. Maybe it is a bug in their system that only affects non-subscribers.
Matt
Sorry Matt.
junglegirl,
It’s not your fault. Sometimes I can see charts on StockCharts OK, sometimes I can’t.
Matt
Here is an example of Cramer ranting about the oil stocks at 12/10/2008 3:31 PM EST:
The house passed the Detroit Bailout around 7pm, I guess. The futures popped initially, but are right back down around 891 where they were before it passed. Is the market ignoring good news now? Is the bailout already priced in? If so, what is our rally catalyst?
they passed? i still thought senate had to vote and republicans are stopping it?
Matt,
The bailout still needs to get by the Senate and it looks like a few republicans in some states that just happen to manufacture cars for foreign companies are claiming they will rally against it.
I truly doubt these guys are that suicidal and this is probably just for show, but it adds just enough uncertainty to the mix that the market will have to wait it out.
I would be amazed if these guys tried to filibuster this. They may want to see GM go down, but I can’t imagine they want to be seen as someone who had a part in GM going down. Just like responsibility, blame is also being avoided at all costs in our current government (e.g. Car Czar).
K,
The House passed the bill today. The Senate must pass it also. Then President Bush must sign it. You would think that the House passing the bill would be worth at least one point in the futures…
Matt
i’m watching currency. mainly the eur/usd but i guess that isnt a big indicator when markets are closed.
it keeps climbing. either we will have a rally tomorrow or i still have to learn if there is any correlation at all.
@ Towlie, I think this quite a different case than TARP was. These guys would love to crush the Detroit madness in favor of their southern cooking. At a minimum this goes to the weekend before they extract the changes deemed favorable to them.
What will keep them on board is that none of these companies, including the Gemrans etc. can make a car without the tiered supply chain that they share. They can’t risk too much more pain to the Visteons, Continentals etc.
Like the TARP this fixes nothing, just stretches out the required changes for these companies. I hope the market reacts as it did with TARP.
I’d like to add shorts at 950 and 1000 SPX, but 920 resistance may hold until next week when they get this done.
newbie, I agree that they would love to do it, but I think they’re all too chickenshit to do it with the whole country watching them.
I too will probably wait and see what happens over the weekend before I go short…hopefully the market doesn’t crap its pants between now and then.
Sweet, two references to poo in one post.
Oops that should be Germans etc.