Wednesday’s Trading
The Sky’s the Limit!
The euphoria on CNBC is reaching absurd levels. Several times yesterday, I heard talking heads telling me: “Earnings will be horrible! Buy! Buy! Buy!”
Sure, the stock market can ignore bad news for extended periods of time. But this time around, bulls are going to need to be content with the lackluster earnings of their stocks for quite a while - like possibly the entire year.
Can investors ignore bad news for that long? Maybe, but I doubt it.
The worst thing I saw on CNBC was Don Luskin on Kudlow’s show. He’s one of those guys, along with Jerry Boyer, who has one of those little “I’m insane” grins on his face all the time. Luskin said someting like: “the upside for stocks is unlimited!”
That from a fool who ridiculed guys like Barry Ritholtz and Peter Schiff when they warned about the recession last year.
When CNBC and clowns like Luskin tell me that the stock market is passing out free money as the global economy crumbles, I am forced to conclude that we are seeing a fantastic shorting opportunity.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:48 pm
Nothing screams “recovery” like oil shippers going belly up and defaulting on their bonds, right?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:06 am
here’s to starting a “nothing screams” meme
Nothing screams recovery like a city in the UK accepting the euro at parity.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4076347/Village-accepts-euro-on-par-with-pound.html
January 7th, 2009 at 12:10 am
It might be that the sellers are willing to let the market grind up to spx 1040 before they get a grip on the obamination to come. More light volume grind upward expected. It doesn’t mean the internals are improving, but neutral.
Agree/Disagree?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:15 am
I hope they don’t allow CNBC to be aired in mental institutions. Those people are suffering enough as it is.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:23 am
You mean CNBC isn’t aired FROM mental institutions?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:37 am
Is this good news:
Dec specialty retail sales -18.3%, specialty apparel sales -17.3%; Dec e-commerce sales +4.6% - Spendingpulse
- Women’s apparel sales -20.2%, mens apparel -11.3%, footwear -12%, specialty electronics -21.4%, specialty furniture and home decor sales -21.4%, luxury goods -27.6%
January 7th, 2009 at 12:41 am
I have taken this upswing as an opportunity to enact a plan I have been tossing around for some time: building a “long-term”, core short position.
I did this twice last year but never had the discipline to hold long term. Maybe third time is the charm?
I sunk 90% of my trading account into DEC 09 SPY puts. The rest is left for short term trading. While I think most on this board are aligned with my views, here is my reasoning:
1. Limited Upside
Current SPX levels are up over 25% from the lows made just over a month ago. I can’t imagine SPX getting over 1050 this year if it even gets to 1000.
2. Huge Downside Potential
I believe we will revisit the 750 low sometime this year and possibly plow right through it. I don’t know when, so 11 months seems like enough time. Don’t have to worry much about time decay either.
3. “Low” VIX
While VIX is at a historically high level of ~40, it has dropped over 50% in just over a month. It really can’t drop much below 25 and will skyrocket if we see more panic selling. Plenty of upside potential on the VIX, which will increase the value of all options.
4. Fundamentals
- Higher unemployment (leading to even more foreclosures)
- Housing will continue to tank
- Commercial real estate will soon join the party
- Bailouts and stimulus will not work. Someone explain to me how increasing our debt will solve our problem of having too much debt. Seriously, it’s that simple.
I’m willing to endure a little pain and will even add to this position if we continue to drift higher. If I am wrong, then I lose the majority of it and have severely over estimated our problems. At least I wont fear losing my job at that point.
So that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:55 am
Regarding a post a while ago about the Fed crushing long term interest rates…one hypothesis was that this was done to avoid more defaults from Alt-A loans that are due to reset in the next year. At first it sounded like a pretty ingenious (devious?) plan. But then I got to thinking….
If you purchased a home with an Alt-A ARM in the last 3-4 years, chances are you are upside down on your mortgage. That means you would need to cough up the difference in cash before you could refinance. How many people who will have issues paying their mortgage when their rates reset will also have thousands (if not tens of thousands) of dollars sitting around?
Maybe that isn’t the plan and they’re just trying to dangle that debt carrot in front of us again. I think we’re all full.
If ever there was a time where CNBC was a contrarion indicator, now is that time.
PS - I swear I try to keep these posts short!
January 7th, 2009 at 1:11 am
This explains why SRS took a dump today.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMjCHzL0Bun4&refer=home
January 7th, 2009 at 1:44 am
Towelie, What strike(s) did you buy?
January 7th, 2009 at 1:56 am
newbie: Kept it simple and went with a strike price of 65.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:14 am
81% of the SP500 is trading above their 50 day MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60367676780&a=156114718
January 7th, 2009 at 2:25 am
Towelie, I have been contimplating a similar VIX play. (Though with a much smaller portion of the account) It looks like a very reasonable plan, best of luck!
January 7th, 2009 at 2:27 am
contemplating, contemplating, contemplating, darn it.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:29 am
just when i got the market figured out… the ignition key on the car gets stuck half way. HMMMM this is no dream something tells me to hide in a little corner cause everything i touch breaks.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:41 am
Hang Seng down 2.5%. Straits Times down .8%. Nikkei 225 closed before the other two headed south. Europe to follow? Off to bed, hoping for a big gap down when I wake up.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:46 am
Futures around 927-925 range.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:05 am
Thanks, newbie.
Charlie, that Bloomberg article might raise another reason for the Fed to lower the long term treasury rates (and indirectly lower loan rates). I had no idea commercial real estate had fallen into the same option ARM crap so completely:
“About $270 billion of mortgages on shopping malls, apartment complexes and office buildings must be refinanced in 2009….”
Ouch. Just when you think you’ve absorbed most of the idiocy of this whole mess you read things like that and wonder how everyone could have been so foolish. So is trading SRS akin to tying your balls to a dart and seeing how far you can throw it before something snaps?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:42 am
Turns out India’s 4th largest something such n’ so was a scam.
http://tinyurl.com/6t59kb
January 7th, 2009 at 5:53 am
Danny, the auditors will have to sign off on the 2008 accounts across the globe. It will not be pretty. More to come?
January 7th, 2009 at 6:41 am
UK’s FTSE is already hitting it’s Nov. 4 swing high. The spx needs another good week to catch up and match the FTSE performance to hit 1000.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:24 am
Still think the main trend is up but we are on the verge of a decent correction.
S&P down to 880 and then up to 1000 and THEN tests the lows in the second quarter?
January 7th, 2009 at 8:35 am
917 ha people are coming back to their senses that the worst hasnt come.
January 7th, 2009 at 8:47 am
Meri-Death is back with the need for banks to raise capital.
ADP Employer Services reports -693K jobs.
Eurpoe down 1- 2%?
January 7th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Eurpoe –Europe is EU pooping.
Not so much in France
January 7th, 2009 at 8:52 am
WSJ Headline: Time Warner now expects net loss for 2008, down from guidance of $1.04 to $1.07 a share profit. Shares sink.
Pre-announcement season rolls on…
January 7th, 2009 at 9:03 am
$600 to fix a freekin ignition key cylinder and housing!!! any people with experience willing to lend me a hand?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:07 am
K,
Google “hot wire”.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 9:09 am
Wow.. I know this was posted above, but wow!!!
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:10 am
K;
Is that some crap, or what? I’d just leave it running all the time now that gas is cheap.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:13 am
Matt;
There are some videos on YouTube vindicating Peter Schiff. The amusing part is showing those who were calling him a fool.
Here’s one of them:
http://www.mixx.com/videos/2950918/youtube_peter_schiff_was_right_2006_2007_2nd_edition
January 7th, 2009 at 9:17 am
Good Morning and here is my Apple update. With Mac World disappointing Apple fans and the new flexible pricing for itunes Apple shares are trading back under the 50DMA in pre-market. If shares remain under $93 and volume starts to increase, say goodbye to the tech rally. Matt is probably right about the end of the rally. 100% cash but looking to go long QID for a scalp.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=qid&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
January 7th, 2009 at 9:21 am
charlie and george, thanks for the tip i got a friend that knows how to do it am taking my car out of the ripoff shop. lets hope they dont give me trouble
January 7th, 2009 at 9:30 am
K;
I’ve been through that before and it turned out to be a recall on the ignition switch. Check the Internet to see if there is a recall on yours - you never know.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:30 am
just got a buy order for drys? place it or screw it?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:30 am
george this is a 1997 camry its just too old that’s all
January 7th, 2009 at 9:35 am
How many more companies are going to ‘fess up that they faked their “good” results, like the one in India this morning?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:40 am
Earnings Q4 will shock people. Q1 will be worse.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:46 am
Drano, it’s called one-off’s.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:58 am
ICE just couldn’t stand the 50s. Nice counter.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:10 am
that’s a might big bounce on a down day..
January 7th, 2009 at 10:16 am
Hi Matt-
When CNBC took over FNN, they were worth
watching. But today the CNBC sponsors pay
them to suck people into the market. They
are now an info commercial.
Hope your trading is off to a great start.
Sherry
January 7th, 2009 at 10:23 am
George, that was a great clip on Schiff. We need to email that link into CNBC and demand they get him back on.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:25 am
SV, agree. There are others out there too, on YouTube.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:26 am
BBT so depressed, it need therapy. But when it pops that downage, I’m calling for my truck.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:28 am
SV, we can catalog that under “tell the folks what they want to hear, not the truth”. Actually, most of those talking-heads don’t know the truth - obviously.
January 7th, 2009 at 10:31 am
I am on their viewer response line now requesting that they have Schiff back on and some of the others to hold them accountable for their bullish comments
January 7th, 2009 at 10:43 am
SV, you misspelled “bullish” — the “i” should come after the “sh”
January 7th, 2009 at 11:13 am
Is ICE fickle today, or what?
January 7th, 2009 at 11:15 am
Drano -
January 7th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Reluctant buyers today. Chopped me off some BBT down around high $23s.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
SV,
You don’t need to call CNBC. They had Schiff on last night.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 11:34 am
If we close that gap today, that would be a big move.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Everything is nearing a 36MA. This should be interesting.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
That’s on a 5min time frame.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Hey George,
what are you in besides BBT? SDS or did you switch to SSO?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
George
Did you have an opportunity over the Holidays to produce the document outlining your trading stategy? You thought I had forgot didn’t you? I have gathered that there is a 15 Minute Master, but I haven’t figured out how it is used. Wait till the Stochastics on the 5 minute are below 20. When the 1 minute MACD breaks above zero jump in. How close did I get? Or did your new plan make all the old stuff null and void?
String
January 7th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Hi Stringm;
I have worked on it more, but not completed yet. I recently came up with an additional strategy where I trade multiple time frames of the same stock simultaneously by simply using MAs. I’m testing that out now, real-time, and it is working great. It keeps me busier, but that’s okay. Also, I’m trying to figure out the best way to set my screens up with this new “strategy”.
However, getting into and out of the trades remains the same. This additional process is more profitable although there could be some drawdowns on occasions.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Hello all, I don’t even watch CNBC or any day time financial show for that matter - most of it is BS as we all know. Occasionally though, they have guys like Faber, Rogers or even Chanos. I am not a Schiff fan but I respect his ability to call a decline for a couple of years now. The problem is he is locked into the straight to hyperinflation camp yet we are clearly watching deflation take hold. While anything can happen, all signs point to a lopsided bet on deflation as the proper one for at least another 2 years. We may, if we are very lucky, have a temporary “recovery” in Q1 through Q3 09 which might create a short,, very weak stint of inflation although even this is a long shot. Anyone following a straight to hyper inflation camp has seen a huge drop in wealth in the last 12 months and more to come regardless of any bear market rallies. I prefer people who are not locked into one view and who are willing to monitor a fluid situation and invest accordingly.
I think this market will correct some more but then the final leg in this bear rally will come into inaguration or stimulus signing, so it should not last longer than the first week of Feb. If SP makes it to 990’s I will short with stop a bit above 1006 - give/take a couple of points.
Stay safe.
JO
January 7th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Hey George,
it would be great if you could describe again how you get out of trades. What is the sign to sell.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Stringm;
There are several methods to enter a trade using my method. They all, for the most part, require a higher time frame from the one being traded to confirm a good entry.
The 15 minute is use as a price “pivot”, if that is a good description, which shows the immediate direction. I use both the 15min stochastic and MACD. The stochastic can, and will, cycle somewhat within a MACD. So, the MACD shows overall direction while the stochastic within it shows the immediate direction.
Example. BBT this AM is nothing but down according to 15min MACD and stochastic. However, I spotted the 1min turning up which was confirmed by the 5min stochastic and MACD which started turning up. I got an OK scalp. Just think if that was a setup where higher time frames had bottomed and were turning up together.
And, BBT will do it again where they all bottom and turn up, or begin to do so. Remember that price starts with the lower time frames, not the higher. Checking higher time frames tells us what the lower ones are doing because it is not always obvious.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
Stringm;
In the BBT example, I also meant to say that the 15min stochastic turned up during that time which gave me the clue it was a good entry.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
There are some folks on this board that have the uncanty ability to know, or figure out, market and stock direction based upon a number of things.
I don’t have that ability. In fact, I’m terrible.
I have to use something mechanical within the realm of probabilities. Then I follow the rules and I don’t worry about the outcome because I know if I do it over and over again, I’ll profit, even if blindfolded. I have drawdowns occasionally, but my method always gets me out with a profit - mainly because I trade mostly “pairs”.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
K, you are right, that 917 is an important number. Go back and look at a monthly chart from 2002. monthly open and closes were at 917. It’s a battle line.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Close to a double top on 5 and 15min SDS.
I’m looking for ~$70 on SDS but it’s having a hard time busting through the 60min 36MA.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Charlie;
If price is under the 36MA, I use the stochastic cross or touching 80. If price has advancd above the 36MA, I use either the MAs crossing, like the 3 and 13, or wait until the MACD goes to zero.
That’s the basic, of course if the higher time frame MACD or stochastic is positive, I will stay in.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
So far, the Q’s have an island reversal gap. They gapped up and held up yesterday, and have gapped down and stayed down today.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Charlie;
I’m trying to type and trade - lol - I will need to read what I wrote to okay it. Basically, another method is follow the MACD once in a trade and it goes above 36MA. This keeps in the trade longer.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
CHarlie, look at the BBT 1min, then see the 5min “approved” the trade. If the 5min clears its 36MA then I’ll use that one to follow the trade. If not, I’ll let the 1min take me out with MACD. See, the stochastic is not reliable after price crosses the 36MA, so something else like MAs or MACD needs to be used. Or, just scalp and get out, then back in.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
The reason stochastic is not reliable after a point is because it will “cycle” within that time frame although it is really moving up - that’s the importance of the higher time frame.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
George
OK thanks for sharing. I will keep observing your comments and if you do come up with a written outline be sure to share.
String
January 7th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Scalping is perfect in a ranging or choppy market. Even better if catching a longer move, of course.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
ICE has been nice twice today.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
George
One more thing, what are the parameter settings you use for MACD and Stochastics, and are they the same for the 1,5, 15 minute charts/
String
January 7th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Stringm;
Well, the higher time frames need a more sensitive setting so use a lower setting for stochastic. I use 8,3,3 or anything that follows price closely and this depends upon the charting platform you are using. Main thing is to follow price - doesn’t have to be exact, but I am used to mine, so when I see a change I know immediately what it means.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
That BBT trade was exited on the MACD. I got .20c. Hey, I’ll take it!
While I’m waiting on SDS to go to 70
January 7th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Wow, you’d think there was bad news or something. I’m ready for a mini-MOAR, perhaps some more BBT and ICE if they cooperate.
January 7th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
I agree, George. WTF just happened. We may see $70 on SDS before 3 pm at this rate.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Matt-gic, you S U R E called this one! Don’t know how it will end but beautiful right now.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Pooh, possible spike high in SDS.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
SPX is back-testing its newly formed 13 and 36MA on the daily.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Thanks George.
I think the market hit an air pocket around 1:40pm. Volume dried up and we just ran out of bidders. This is common at the end of an extensive rally.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
called AAA and got my car out of the scam place. paid $60 for “diagnostics” . called my friend over. took the ignition cylinder out got the new one at toyota dealership $130.. bought my friend breakfast/lunch.. $200 all together. HA 3x that bastard wanted for a part that was in PERFECT shape.
so bad half of the day start. i get home and see S&P -26.5 YAY?
January 7th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I’m back in the black.
Now please show me an 8 handle SPX. 
January 7th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
love the 4 handle on the VIX
January 7th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
from yesterday…
admin Says: January 6th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
“You would have to put a gun to my head to get me to be long here.”
last time you said that Matt you weren’t lying haha so today was really no surprise for me or many of us.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Cramer will call “foul” today and pound shorts along with inverse stocks.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
A little more downside and BBT will be off the charts running into the floor.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Yeah.. it just took a few days for this sell-off to come into play.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Matt. thanks for the upgraded stomach. I needed to learn to take a punch when the setup called for it.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
feeling like you want to short a stock? NTCT
it went up on earnings breakout but thats all the fuel it has got in my opinion
January 7th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
I just took profits on my SPY puts. I made 30% and don’t want to jinx myself by being too greedy. I still have large mounds of SDS and QID though, as well as a short position in the futures.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
There’s your $70 on SDS George!
January 7th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Your welcome Newbie.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Yeah, Buzz… I’m happy. Sold it, too.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
can i call DiBS on 894? if/when we get to 8 handle?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Potential bear flag on SPY 1-minute chart over past 8 minutes.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
SPX 15min support at 50SMA?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
SPY held up and it looks like shorts are taking profits.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
either way i sold SDS. QID and SRS left. (got SPY on the other account still. will probably get taken out tomorrow at open by the automated system
January 7th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
I’m back in cash with large profits on the deal.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
The TICK is back into positive territory, so the market might be able to retrace into the close.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
WTG Matt…
January 7th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
out of QID as well just SRS left.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
I would have stayed short longer, but the selling volume today was light.
The market slipped on one of Jungle Girl’s banana peals, put maybe her bear is a vegetarian and not too vicious - at least until the next dream.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Thanks George.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Grats on the profits Matt.. btw.. what is your bounce target or do you think this was just the market selling off due to the extreme overbought condition and that there is more upside?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
so we did bounce off 50SMA in 15min chart. 917-924 then we’ll see if we touch too many live wires.
matt thanks in part by you we all saw this coming
January 7th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Shorts have been starved for profits so they are rushing to buy-to-cover now. Doesn’t mean that the correction is over though.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
oh crap i didnt see the 907 live wire. i guess it might just give it a jolt or enough for it to fall.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Thanks K, Charlie.
Charlie, I don’t know yet. I need to study today’s action more.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Great work Matt, cleaned up here myself.
I think it was the right move to cover in the low 900s, I did the same FWIW…I think this dip may get bought in a most middle of August way.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Are there enough profit-taking shorts to keep the market up into the close?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Danny,
Maybe so, though if I were a bull I would wait until Friday morning after the jobs report. Maybe I could get a nice, low price.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
SPX went down to the 9MA on the daily and touched it. The Qs didn’t quite make it, but close enough.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
is anyone holding anything overnight?
January 7th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
HAAAAAAAAAAAAA the live wire at 907 seems to have been all that was needed for now.,.. 15min..
http://i42.tinypic.com/24o9jmb.png
January 7th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
am thinking SRS charlie. not the best to hold but oh well.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
but if within this hr we see a spike to 917 for some reason I will not blink until i have rebought SDS :P.. looks like am getting my 8 handle wish NOW….
January 7th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
SPY is now very oversold on its 60-minute slow stochastic. The market should be able to manage at least a feeble bounce tomorrow, but I can’t imagine it getting too excited in front of the jobs report.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
K,
Nice call on 907.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Futes are struggling to hold the 9 handle. The bid is at 900.25 now.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
stumbled upon this website.. what do you guys think? anything worth reading?
http://www.etfplanet.com/ am just looking around seems to have some nice info. of course all am looking is for more symbols 
January 7th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
Matt you said youre back to cash.. does that mean that you have no holdings? or still have futures?.
we once again hit 50SMA on 15min.
blood doesnt care if its zapped as much. so i stand by my 897 target although i wish it would bounce over 907
January 7th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Charlie, I was thinking of getting some SSO overnight.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
The XLF has broken the green line on my Grand Alignment chart:
http://www.trivisonno.com/xlf-grand-alignment
January 7th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
K,
I took profits on my futures, so I have no positions now. My goal is to only trade once or twice a month and goof off the rest of the time. So far, it’s working. I don’t need to work for a couple of months after today’s profits.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
really Matt?…. WOW and my investment club at school wants to average down BAC a THIRD TIME (we’re all students but none as involved in real trading as me). i will just shut up. its worked good so far and ive earned their respect. when they dont listen and am right they then always ask.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
K,
Do the other memebers of the club know who Meredith Whitney is?
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Got out of SDS at $70. (Thanks George) Too hard to tell which way we go now, and don’t want to be wrong on a gap. Rather wait and see what happens after open tomorrow, becuase we have a big battle around K’s 907 ish level.
I think we do get a move up towards the Inauguration, and then…look out below…
January 7th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
K;
I like the “goof off” part of your plan.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Great day today.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Note: While I started my short position a few days ago at 900, I have been building it since then as the market went up. Coming into this morning, I had a gigantic short position, so I was able to profit even though I started way too early.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
sounds good Matt. My goal is to develop a system that will work fairly well and that can recover from draw downs fairly quickly. but it takes time so i just take risks learning to trade like we all are.
aaaaand looks like 907 live current is still strong.. maybe its using European 240 Volts supplied by our very own Dressguard.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
Buzz, that’s a good point. Wacky days deserve caution, especially the next day. I normally don’t buy at the close, but I’m thinking volatility is worth something.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Matt;
I believe that is a good strategy if one knows what they’re doing. That is similar to my “core” positioning. After I compete my study on my “new” strategy, I will begin doing my core again.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Matt,
The bananas are gone, the bear is still hungry, and all that’s left at the market is bull.
When shorts scurry to cover after getting burned over and over, that’s about when the game changes. Have to study up tonight, but we’re at the cusp of going down, and my most important signals throughout this bear are saying hold short. I expect the picture to be clear “shortly.”
January 7th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
Matt,
this is part of my secret sauce along with around 30 blogs that i have subscribed to using google reader.
I doubt they know who she is, nor Barry Ritholtz, nor Peter Schiff, haha not even Matt Trivisonno!!! I mean come on, you don’t know the rest but you gotta know Matt. I wont give this site away to the class yet
January 7th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
I guess they only know Cramer huh?
January 7th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
well probably. but quite a few of them know “analysts” you know… those people that say BUY a stock when its time to SELL. and SELL a stock and its really time to BUY! ?
analysts and estimates is all I hear from them.
I am mostly economics advisor in part because am too lazy to look at fundamental data of stocks so i can write a report.
AIPC in november.
CPD in december
and HDIX Now. (this i sent a report on the 29th of december) got this back today…
“Hi K,
HDIX looks decent. Eearnings fell dramatically within the first quarter, but that was mainly due to a large supply to a retailer, which led to an inventory backup. Despite this, the company upped its annual revenue guidance and confirmed its guidance for EPS. The industry also has plenty of potential and competition is modest. There is also a share buyback of another 5 million. It looks pretty decent and I think we should give it a shot.
What does everyone else think?”
Ummm slowpokes of the world! from my date to now HDIX is up 17%. i bought it for myself but with a stop and it hit it before going on a 17% hike lol. oh well.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Matt, Nice trading. I also started at 900, but my steps were too big (950 & 1000). I guess I am still in rip your face of VIX mode.
When I saw two failed attempts at $94.5 yesterday on the SPY I added shorts AH @ $93.3.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
newbie,
Nicely done. Trading is never perfect, and we might have to start worrying about our faces again since JungleGirl’s Vix gap has held nicely. No telling how high it will bounce.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
junglegirl,
I see what you mean. On December 1st, the market plunged all day. The shorts didn’t even think of taking profits. They, at least “I”, were way overconfident at the time.
That day can be said to have kicked off this rally since it was the bears’ Waterloo because the market snapped right back.
Now we have the opposite situation: Bears too timid to press into the close, which may show that they have room for ego expansion.
Matt
January 7th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
Matt,
You took profits at a perfect chart point. I’m not trying to confuse anyone on that. I can’t routinely trade a.m. market action, which necessarily affects how I trade.
That said, I do believe the market is cracking here. I didn’t anticipate the time dilation that occurred in December, but the price projections are still for us to go down hard.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Most likely Elliott Wave Count is that we have completed the first wave of wave (5) down and the wave (4) rally is over.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Oh yeah I have a target of 625
January 7th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Same here Matt, I shorted at 900 and pyramided up hard, incidentally, something I usually don’t do.
I really am digging the 4:42 comment. That sentiment makes complete sense.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
hey guys i just made a bet with a friend TBV below $2 on EOD January 30, 2009.
what do you think.
bet is for $1 but he said he’s gonna buy some tomorrow and on my indicators this is SUPER EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT
January 7th, 2009 at 8:14 pm
JG, I presume you are still holding shorts? I still have 1/3 of my SKF and SPY positions.
January 7th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
newbie… yes, and sleeping very well.
January 7th, 2009 at 8:29 pm
JG, Did you take anything off today?
January 7th, 2009 at 9:18 pm
My sweatshirt. Over and out.