Is Greece Dubai All Over Again?
Did Abu Dhabi let Dubai twist in the wind because the USA was pressuring it to reign in Dubai’s sanction-circumventing trade with Iran? If so, then perhaps the Dubai Crisis was blown all out of proportion and was more of a political event than a financial event.
And this quote from AEP is making me think that Greece is an analogous situation:
“There are reports that Berlin is deliberately bringing the crisis to a head, hoping to lance the boil early and force the Club Med states to reform before it is too late. If so, this is a risky strategy. German banks have huge exposure to Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese debt.”
If the Germans have that huge exposure, will they really let the Greeks go under?
Schedule
I just noticed WordPress’s scheduling feature. So now I’m going to use it to make the daily trading posts appear each morning at 9am.
SPY intraday gap filled.
Nice fade on SPY, now to complete wave “B” down(?).
The Greeks were cheating their way into the EU. They should have been kicked out years ago when that fraud became public.
Hey dressguard, sup? I’ve been to Greece.
In the past several days, SKF has done a few Humpties on its 15min. This time could be better depending upon how far the market pulls back, assuming it goes with it. It might even make a clean break.
Either way, Tres Cruzars have been profitable.
Could be the end of wave “B”.
1102-05 resistance, trend still down
Dressguard, they only got in because they are irrelevant. I think their main asset is Turkey.
SPY up against 5min 36MA resistance. 15min stochastic is up. The 5min will be a trigger for higher or lower.
Nice breakthrough of SPY on the 5min. Now it has broken through the 15min resistance. May not keep going but good longer-term scalp so far.
This still may all be part of wave “B” down, just some waves within waves.
Bear-flag on the Spy targeting 1091?
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-apple-founder-woz-my-toyota-prius-accelerates-to-97-mph-on-its-own-scares-the-hell-out-of-me-2010-2
Seems like SKF has been in the mid-$20s forever.
tlt down a dollar…any takers a dollar lower than here ?
K, he’s lucky the thing can’t go faster. Speeding is a thing of the past, nowadays we’re having software problems…
interesting pattern – do(o)med house
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/doomed_house.png
Yerk,
There’s a pattern for everything, huh? Wonder how that fits in with the EW count.
George, yep, but this is a truly complex one. The mainstream count should fit pretty well with it.
yerk.
84 is what i see in SPY in next few months.
Futures are up after Cisco’s earnings report. This is a bullish reaction compared to the reactions that we saw for Intel’s and Apple’s reports.
K,
Do you mean $84 for SPY? That ‘should’ put SDS at $69.
George,
my bet is by june.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/overhead-cradle-resistance-for-the-sp-500-feb-3
one more agrees with Matt,
http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2010/02/spx-scenario-that-will-be-looking-for.html
K,
I like Corey, his naming conventions and that super article about the 12 failed signals. There were more, but he’s pointing out the Market Myth Miff’s (LOL) I’ve been proclaiming.
The only way I see getting around failed signals is by using oscillators that follow price. Either that or trendlines and they are hard at times to use. Both are lagging indicators but they are better than the guessing game.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/google-there-and-back-again-half-time
The exposure to Greek debt is as follows-
France €80bn
Switzerland €80bn
Germnay €30bn
Therefore it is the French who have a real interest to ensure the greeks do not default.
However , I think you miss the real point with the Greek situation. They have run a primary deficit since they jouned the Euro. Therefore they need to reign in spending to a point whereby they generate a primary surplus to live within their means. I do not see any country willing to increase taxes on their own electorates to allow ongoing greek largesse, do you ? Therefore the question is how much external support is required , in the form of a low cost bridging loan to make the medicine that needs to be taken by Greek society palatable. The European electorate has no interest in seeing their hard earned tax €’s being spent outside of their own national boundaries.The concept of Multilateralism is going to face severe heawinds going forward IMHO .
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.26 -0.72 -0.93
Natural Gas 5.456 +0.037 +0.68
Corn 353.0 -12.0 -3.39
Soybeans 908.0 -17.5 -1.92
30yr Bond 117.53125 +0.15625 +0.13
10yr Note 117.578125 -0.4375 -0.37
NY Gold 1102.8 -9.2 -0.83
NY Silver 16.19 -0.127 -0.77
Emini S&P 1088.75 -7.75 -0.71
Emini Nasdaq 1776.25 -9.25 -0.52
Emini Dow 10182 -59 -0.58
Matt, any chance you could have the new page come up earlier? I actually like to read this blog in the 7 o’clock hour (5:30 am in AZ) before I head off to work. I’d appreciate it! Thanks.
SPY needs to pull back more to make the right shoulder on the H&S. Then up to Yerk’s resistance area.
Matt, I second 2thfixer’s request. Usually there are some posts before 9am (eg 3pm
related to the trading day.
this feels like consolidation in the high es 1080s and the up later today. dax should not make new lows after US open if you are a bull.
Yerk, what you think?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Someone is buying dollars. And the Euro looks ready to drop further.
But Jobless Claims just came in at 480k.