Comments on: Wednesday’s Trading http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4 Bear Market Growls Until January 2010 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:28:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3645 admin Thu, 14 Aug 2008 02:54:11 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3645 Hi jayJ, I use the STEM-MR model at SentimenTrader.com, and keep a slow stochastic on all of my charts. I'm glad that you like my blog, Matt Hi jayJ,

I use the STEM-MR model at SentimenTrader.com, and keep a slow stochastic on all of my charts.

I’m glad that you like my blog,
Matt

]]> By: jayJ http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3644 jayJ Thu, 14 Aug 2008 02:36:05 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3644 Matt - Excellent insight price vs oscillators .....which oscillators do you typically utilize in your trading... So far the discourse on here has been useful.....hopefully the flamers won't infiltrate. JJ Matt - Excellent insight price vs oscillators …..which oscillators do you typically utilize in your trading…
So far the discourse on here has been useful…..hopefully the flamers won’t infiltrate.

JJ

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3641 admin Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:15:27 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3641 Paul, That GS chart is a <i>mess.</i> It's almost certain to test its July low. Thanks for reminding me to keep an eye on it. And yes, I think a bounce off of a "good" claims report tomorrow may be a good shorting opportunity. I need to study it some more, but I think that this rally may have peaked. Matt Paul,

That GS chart is a mess. It’s almost certain to test its July low. Thanks for reminding me to keep an eye on it.

And yes, I think a bounce off of a “good” claims report tomorrow may be a good shorting opportunity. I need to study it some more, but I think that this rally may have peaked.

Matt

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3640 admin Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:07:30 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3640 phil, If you look back at the time stamps of your comments, you will see that you turned negative just as the market bottomed around 12:15. If you had gone short there, you would have been in instant pain. Also, a couple of days ago, you felt that the Q's were going to the moon just as they were topping out. Do you see how that works? They way the market "feels" is almost always the opposite of what it will do next. That's why I spend more time looking at oscillators than I do at prices. Watching prices only will make you crazy. Matt phil,

If you look back at the time stamps of your comments, you will see that you turned negative just as the market bottomed around 12:15. If you had gone short there, you would have been in instant pain. Also, a couple of days ago, you felt that the Q’s were going to the moon just as they were topping out.

Do you see how that works? They way the market “feels” is almost always the opposite of what it will do next. That’s why I spend more time looking at oscillators than I do at prices. Watching prices only will make you crazy.

Matt

]]> By: Paul http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3639 Paul Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:01:06 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3639 Two more notes: 1) Goldman got another downgrade today, but you guys may have noticed that before. Hopefully, the news will be "good" tomorrow and a nice shorting opportunity will arise. 2) relating to what phil has said today (and what I mentioned on previous days), a plunge is much more likely when the VIX is low because the catalyst (the big bad news) is unexpected and not close to priced in. Of course, I also said not to expect big upward moves with low VIX but we've had two the last week, so what do I know... Two more notes:

1) Goldman got another downgrade today, but you guys may have noticed that before. Hopefully, the news will be “good” tomorrow and a nice shorting opportunity will arise.

2) relating to what phil has said today (and what I mentioned on previous days), a plunge is much more likely when the VIX is low because the catalyst (the big bad news) is unexpected and not close to priced in. Of course, I also said not to expect big upward moves with low VIX but we’ve had two the last week, so what do I know…

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3638 admin Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:59:24 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3638 Given the extreme short-term oversold condition, SPY should have been able to manage more than a three-hour intra-day rally. So, the bounce off of the $128 area this afternoon has a "last hurrah" feeling to it. Also, the market rallied the last two Wednesdays - not fearing the unemployment-claims report on the following Thursday. By losing the $129 level in the final minutes of trading, SPY is telling us that those animal spirits are gone. I may be reading too much into today's action, and the weakness may just be a consequence of the bounce in commodities, however, the DBC is almost exactly where it was last Wednesday, and the same is true for oil. Today's selling also picked up volume over yesterday. So, the market is going to need some good economic news soon to keep this rally going. And I think such news is going to be hard to come by. Given the extreme short-term oversold condition, SPY should have been able to manage more than a three-hour intra-day rally. So, the bounce off of the $128 area this afternoon has a “last hurrah” feeling to it.

Also, the market rallied the last two Wednesdays - not fearing the unemployment-claims report on the following Thursday. By losing the $129 level in the final minutes of trading, SPY is telling us that those animal spirits are gone.

I may be reading too much into today’s action, and the weakness may just be a consequence of the bounce in commodities, however, the DBC is almost exactly where it was last Wednesday, and the same is true for oil. Today’s selling also picked up volume over yesterday.

So, the market is going to need some good economic news soon to keep this rally going. And I think such news is going to be hard to come by.

]]> By: Paul http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3637 Paul Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:52:45 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3637 I'm with you, Matt. No telling what the report will show, and more important, how the market will interpret it and react. I’m with you, Matt. No telling what the report will show, and more important, how the market will interpret it and react.

]]> By: phil http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3636 phil Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:51:39 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3636 matt......as i said before.........i would not be surprised to see the bottom fall out...........i have no skin in this game at present.....just an observation matt……as i said before………i would not be surprised to see the bottom fall out………..i have no skin in this game at present…..just an observation

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3635 admin Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:30:37 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3635 Normally, to be certain of a valid breakout from an ascending-triangle pattern, you want to see prices advance at least 3% beyond the breakout level. QQQQ and IWM have done that, but SPY has not. To go 3% beyond $129, SPY would have to hit about $132.87 and it hasn't gotten anywhere near that. So, this rally is still officially suspect from a technical perspective. And I think there is a good chance that SPY's breakout will prove to be false in the final analysis unless XLF can get itself turned around - and there is no sign of that happening. In fact, XLF just keeps deteriorating. Normally, to be certain of a valid breakout from an ascending-triangle pattern, you want to see prices advance at least 3% beyond the breakout level. QQQQ and IWM have done that, but SPY has not. To go 3% beyond $129, SPY would have to hit about $132.87 and it hasn’t gotten anywhere near that.

So, this rally is still officially suspect from a technical perspective. And I think there is a good chance that SPY’s breakout will prove to be false in the final analysis unless XLF can get itself turned around - and there is no sign of that happening. In fact, XLF just keeps deteriorating.

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/wednesdays-trading-4#comment-3634 admin Wed, 13 Aug 2008 19:23:53 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=490#comment-3634 SPY may hold above $129 and go even higher, however, I am back to 100% cash. The last two Thursdays were not pleasant. The unemployment-claims data series is volatile, so the number tomorrow morning could be anything. But given the tightening credit conditions, there's no way I will hold any long positions in front of the report - even if the market is still short-term oversold. The market was able to recover from the last two claims-bombs and keep on rallying. I'm not so sure that it can continue to do that. SPY may hold above $129 and go even higher, however, I am back to 100% cash. The last two Thursdays were not pleasant. The unemployment-claims data series is volatile, so the number tomorrow morning could be anything. But given the tightening credit conditions, there’s no way I will hold any long positions in front of the report - even if the market is still short-term oversold.

The market was able to recover from the last two claims-bombs and keep on rallying. I’m not so sure that it can continue to do that.

]]>