Q1 GDP came in at -6.1%. According to CNBC, this is a fabulous improvement over the -6.3% drop in Q4.
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Bottom is nearing!!!
Yes, Dressguard, we have hit bottom and now we are floating up:
Rotterdam, Europe’s largest port, may be running out of space to store crude as global oil demand posts its first back-to-back annual drop in a quarter-century.
Looks like we have lift off – EOM mark-up in process…
Summation tick (lbrgroup.com) was calling
for a move up. Question is…will this be the
exhaustion move…or will the market have
more basing??????
Haven’t had time to look at what to short.
SPY volume is slowly dwindling on the daily. I can imagine an ascending triangle on the SPY intraday now that matt has put the idea in my head
Bottom line is that we are approaching 875 again. Do we break out or down?
I was in a mall Sunday and the traffic was insane. The nearby car dealers didn’t look busy but this was late afternoon. It looks to me like people are throwing their tax rebates and the money they saved from refinancing into the furnace. Unemployment in California is running 11% and people keep shopping. What the ????
Psychology is still somewhat positive, i.e. the stock rally is making more people think this is over.
I want to buy puts here with a defined stop at 880 but we might have another leg left in this monster based on the psychology and consumer shopping behavior.
880 is the upside breakout, but what is the breakdown if this rally fails to take it on the third attempt?
I’m late to the party again.
Taking 940 as the peak of the last intermediate cycle, ~890 would be a 78% retracement.
Matt, your analysis yesterday was spot-on. WTG
I like the inverse more each rising day.
Thanks George.
So much for lazy action before Fed-Speak. The “drill” calls for a market reversal post-speak. Heh, with the exception of more bad news which means we go higher.
Goes to show this is technical stuff with intermittent news to give CNBC “reasons” as to why all are so giddy.
Volume in the first hour of trading as weaker than yesterday for SPY, QQQQ, and XLF. Only IWM showed an improvement. Don’t forget, for a breakout, we want to see a surge in volume.
If we are indeed hitting a rounding top pattern as Matt pointed out a few days ago, we still need to wait for the peak. We may not have seen it yet, but this will be a slow process. Looking at the current curvature of this top, it may take 2 to 3 months to play out IMO. No sudden drops, but the market will be trading in a range for a while.
Kinda makes sense if you think that people feel that the worst is over because it will take a while for people to realize that the 3rd Qtr recovery story doesn’t hold water. Not when you have unemployment north of 10% and GDP and -6%+.
SDS just lost that nice double bottom on the 30min, however, if it turns up here there will be a nice MACD divergence.
Julie,
a prolonged short squeeze has no basing … but it has no limits either.
The backlash will come – a delusional sense of feasibility not yet stopped by a society reverting to the mean path of development, which probably is not cognizant of inescapableness of the reversion yet.
Still looking for a blowout (in either direction), the rounding top does not align well with the anxiety in the system imo.
Is this really still a bear market??? Green shoots everywhere!!!
Stringm,
BTW, most MACD histograms are incorrect on charts. If the MACD trendlines are above the zero line, all of the histogram ticks should be above the zero line. Reverse that for the trendlines below the zero line.
Is there any way to make that happen with StrategyDesk?
Thanks
Yerk:
>>>>society reverting
Entire societies will not revert, just enough of them to keep the rest from burning down the villages.
EOM Window-dressing is alive and well… so far.
@Dressguard: Denninger calls the green shoots weeds.
@MKB: The German and better the European history of reverting is showing that not always attention is being paid to the fine line you’re pointing at… Interesting dissonance here, as the US does not have the experience of crossing the line.
watching the tape – me thinks this move is not done yet
The CEO should never be the Chairman. I know, it’s earth shattering but call me Mr. obvious.
I’m wondering the same thing Dressguard..
on that note and to add to gigi’s note above, I was over in Phoenix for a bit 2 weeks ago. It is supposed to be one of the epi-centers for this housing meltdown and the mall was teaming with people. I mean.. walking over to the play area, there must have been 50 kids playing there. Lots of traffic with people in and out of stores. Maybe there really isn’t a recession? Maybe all the problems are fixed? Are we being too bearish and being fixated on only the negative?
C’mon Charlie that’s like going to the North Pole and sayin’ free saunas are crowded!
Yerk—-
Good comments…but keep in mind that even
big traders need to recharge their accounts
and basing lets them do that.
On the last 277 point SPX move down, one
big trader we consult with told us that she
recharged her account four fold and she
was going to take every penny the shorts
had…one of many reasons we went long
at the bottom.
If you like to pick the brains of successful
traders, go to…lbrgroup.com…and sign-up
for the free one week trial. Also note the
compression meter and summation tick
info while you are there.
Have a great day.
Julie,
many thanks for your suggestion. I did look into lbr – and thought it to be too much daytrading related and this does not align well with my other obligations now. I will give it a try for a free week – must have missed that offer.
88x will be tough nut – participation has gone down. Maybe then it will come back.
George
Not sure what you are looking at on MACD. It you right click on your data chart you will see an option for tracking window. Select that, and it will give you data points for the indicators you use. The histogram is just a display of the the Subtraction of the signal from the MACD. If your MACD line and your signal line are below zero the histogram will be below zero. If your MACD and signal line are above zero, BUT the signal line is greater your histogram will still be below zero. Hope this helps.
String
We’re almost at a double top for the SPX.
Nothing else much to say in that the market continues to move higher.
There were several 15min 9/36 crosses today with the gap up. I’m with you Charlie, I think there is more upside to come.
Seems like financials are the weakest right now followed by the SPY & DOW. Nasdaq and the Russell are roaring.
Julie, those are interesting comments.
Stringm, I’ll elaborate more on the MACD later.
Thanks
Thanks George.
Hope you’re feeling better.
Another week and the DOW is @ 14,000 again.
Julie, thanks. Better each day.
Glad you’re improving George
Hopefully your wife is getting better too.!
Charlie, my wife is worse off than me with that pneumonia. We need to figure out how we got this crud. We haven’t been anywhere significant. There has been a lot of pollen this year and that could be part of the problem.
Thanks
Waiting on the Bernake Bounce. If it’s good news, we go down!
And it’s all over!!!
FOMC Text:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abGbUCipP5Ts&refer=home
Anyone interested in a new buy target for SRS???
0?
Dressguard, I’ve been in URE today waiting for it to turn over. Still strong right now. It may flip at the $4.10 mark.
BB’s continue to pull in…big move
coming…direction and time are
TBD.
Sure Dressguard… why don’t you let us know the new buy target for SRS…
The dollar moved higher after the FOMC announcement, so that might be a negative for stocks. The dollar is still down on the day though. I’m looking at the Dixy.
I wonder what we will get today.. late day surge or late day sell-off. The bullishness of the market cannot be denied, but at the sametime, the volume is light and the markets look pretty overbought right now.
If SRS can close above $24, that would be a very big + for it.
SRS now through daily VWAP which was at $24.04.
Market fight to close above 875 while SRS struggles to stay above it’s own VWAP of $24.06.
The IWM is holding its breakout, but the Q’s and SPY have lost theirs.
MMs playing cat and mouse mind-fu– games with 875.
ugly close for SRS there. Never fails to disappoint.
Matt: Is that a huge bull flag on the $tyx chart?
Matt: The daily $tyx chart that is.
Jim,
You need volume to distinguish a bull flag, so I looked at the hourly TBT chart, and it certainly has formed a bull flag since the FOMC announcement. It shot up on huge volume, and then consolidated on light volume. Right out of the textbook.
Matt
phil:
If you were on my team you’d be getting me coffee all week!
I don’t think the market can ignore the pandemic threat forever. WHO is on the verge of raising the threat level to 5. Black swan it certainly might be.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auYYxSRWEz4k&refer=home
mkb ?
phil:
Kidding with you. I know your deflation/bond strength thesis is longer term. Hope you had a full 18 hole game today!
mkb…..if tnx goes above 3.48% i am wrong and rates are headed much higher
There’s a school out there that sees a bond collapse in a deflation. So, err on the side of inflation and yes, maximum employment please.
mkb…i am going also on the basis that the sharp drop in yields last year was a momentum low or 3rd wave…we should see a test of that low on lesser momentum…..also this rise in rates looks sloppy and corrective ie a 4th wave but if it overlaps what i am considering the top of wave 1…..@3.48% then its all over
Even the futures are showing green shoots. Green shoots every where. Everything is hunky-dorey again. The recession was just a statistical error.
Dressguard:
There’s a story about a couple of fellows travelling through the countryside and one noticed a group of sheep and commented how freshly sheared they were. The other fellow commented, “how do you know what’s on the other side?”
On a similar note, I’ll take a short’s research over a long’s anyday! Man, I think shorts have been hunted down like dogs – much the same way the shorts crept up on the longs.
Aint life interesting?
873 is an important breakout level for the futures.
The SDS 30min double bottom with the MACD divergence is still valid. The MACD and stochastic have started to turn up with a buy signal on the stochastic. The MACD is making a higher low while price made a lower low. Price went below the double bottom but that is often the case.
With respect to the 15/36 crossovers, one would need to diversify to come out with a profit. QLD was gang-busters all day until the end where it lost ground at the close into the negative. Others did marginally better, but in most cases, getting out earlier would have resulted in a profit in all the stocks that made the cross.
Back to the drawing board.
SPX MACD wedging— easily seen on the daily and hourly. New month coming. Let’s have that roll-over. (Inverted saucers hold no Kool Aid!)
Change that: Inverted saucers hold no water— the necessary substrate for “green shoots” to thrive. Kool Aid residue appears to have been stuck to the saucer for a month now.
dax hit target of 4800 but futures trading above equivalent of 880… Are there historic precedents for a gap up and drop on month’s end? Some retracement should occur but I doubt the market implodes today.
Also, I’m still missing the information about the mitigating govt tricks now that we have learnt some insolvent banks can’t even survive a don’t stress me test.
Dollar driving the markets. CEOs fighting a losing battle against investor expecations.
eurusd retreated but stocks did not. hmmm…
Dollar driving the markets.
Do you know awk, Perl or something like that?
/Dollar/Idiocy/
Another gap up today. The rabbit keeps beating the drum.
Mornin’ George! Cooler today eh?
MKB,
Morning. Yes, nice spring weather lately.
MKB, are you supposed to get a NC state refund?