The bulls looked like they were about to turn the tide on Tuesday until they got slammed down in the last ten minutes of trading. I would expect the negativity of the close to carry over to the morning, just as it has to the futures so far tonight, but the market is tough to call here. Tuesday could have been the beginning of a reversal, or it could have been a consolidation of the downtrend. The XLF looked good, but there is nothing “reversal looking” about the IWM’s candlestick on the daily chart.
Of course, the fate of the market will be decided by the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm. Interpreting this event is very easy: the market wants the Fed to keep pouring freshly-printed dollars upon it. If the Fed pulls back on any of its crazy schemes, or hints that they might do so in the future, then the market will commit suicide. The market knows that it is being inflated; it knows that it is a stuffed shirt.
The Fed’s leak to the Wall Street Journal said that there would be no tightening of any kind. However, it is possible that Bernanke will hint at a tiny tightening in the future, and the market won’t like that. The market has probably plunged this week because the Fed said that it would discuss “exit strategies” at the meeting. So, you can imagine what would happen if an actual exit strategy reared its ugly head.
K,
Europe = wine.
i am able to log in at 2:15 and market crashes
wonderful!!
My QID position yesterday was WRONG!
marty i also have a qid position
have yet to test this but looks promising options screener
http://www.samoasky.com/
marty:
Chart still looks promising for QID.
K,
If you have a big interest in options, suggest
you checkout an unusual option service. One
of our friends awhile back got an alert on
insurance company options….bought some
for 50 cents and sold the next day for 3 dollars.
K,
Well, misery–just a little, and offset by AAUK–loves company. I think I’m going to hold, then double down.
Phil, did you sell TLT, it hit 94.07. It would have been mighty tempting for me (I often sell before my price, sometimes for better, sometimes for worse)…
Isn’t this the definition of churn? This market just wants to take your money. Nothing Bernanke said changed anything. Still a fuzzy picture–and no heavy volume… I think the best position for a bit might be to wait on the sidelines… hate to say it, since I haven’t followed this advice.
Okay guys,
bailed on my SPY PUTS for 15% profit on the trade.. Not sure what this market wants to do, but volume on the market is very low right now and that means that people are waiting for something to happen. Selloff after the FOMC mins hasn’t shown any conviction and didn’t have the explosive volume I was hoping for. Will continue to hold some SRS again overnight, but that will be it.
Biggest regret today was not buying some SMN.
MKB,
I was thinking that, but I’m worried that earnings in a couple of weeks are going to look much better than feared for a lot of tech companies. By and large, most are well-managed, so they have cut costs, and a lot of them–smart phones, semis, starent network–are doing much better than expected. The consumer is suffering, but tech is infrastructure, and it’s the last thing that people stop spending money on… One million iphones in 3 days. Wrap your head around that.
I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth, I think, but there’s an almost 2% differential between the dow and the Nas. I don’t see that very often. I wonder, in fact, if there is any technical significance to that. Any thoughts anyone?
ORCL up 7%, on almost triple volume…
BRCD up 6%
SQNM up 9%
Even Yahoo is up 5% on good volume… I guess it’s Badda boom, Badda bing for MSFT.
Sorry, all that adrenaline from the gym…. I’ll stop now…
marty……check out my posts 1:49 and 1:55
paula….thanks for scaring me out of my 30 yrs…..you saved me a bundle
Holy smokes phil. On 30 year bonds!?!? Nice. This is not your TLT position. When did you pick those up?
Charlie,
Agree, I’ve resorted to 1min stochastic trades. Nothing gangbusters for sure. At least not the moves I was hoping for.
Phil,
Don’t spend it all at one time.
K,
Are you using a computer or a fancy phone for the Internet?
marty,, bot on 18th…sold this pm for 2.5 point gain …actually gain was more like 150% annualized because bond price was 82.44 not par
paula…i owe you
George,
Strange. I always win my bets with Julie…
…can’t recall the last time I won one with
Mom…will keep trying.
Phil, Sweet! But like George said, leave some of it for the grandkids!
paula,
That was really a draw, right? Unless it was a DOW bet. It still didn’t end up the way I was thinking. But it came out okay for scalps.
Paula,
what service might that be?
George…
am using a ‘puter. I am remote connecting through a secure line to my computer at home where all my tools are set up
I can’t believe momma land has wifi..
After the FOMC announcement, SPY spent the rest of the day making an inverted Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern on its 1-minute chart. And it broke above the neckline just before the close. So, given a neutral news flow, SPY might be expected to run up to 90.85 or so tomorrow morning.
K,
Connected via home. That’s what I do some times. Why wouldn’t the mommaland have wifi? Many countries are ahead of the States in that area.
Yerk, have a good one.
Paula, thanks for your personally collected CPI. Please post it once a quarter.
I forgot about the “golden cross” where the 50MA crosses up over the 200MA on the daily. Today’s close just barely made the MAs cross.
If it continues, that could be a sign of a longer rally or even a new bull. It would have to turn up soon for it to maintain the “golden” status.