A six-billion dollar mall is being built in Syracuse, New York. The developer has signed-up zero tenants. Citigroup tried to pull the plug on the project, but a judge has ordered them to keep funding it because they got $44.5 billion in taxpayer bailout dollars. So now, taxpayer dollars are being used to build more ghost malls. What a splendid economic recovery this is!
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AMAZING!!! let’s all go shopping there when $6 billion buys a pair of shoes
and Matt…
TOS seems to have automation but to me it doesn’t look user friendly. giving you so little to work with. I might give it a go on a stock one of these days even though my system sucks in 1hr compared to 4hr that is.
but i got the basic strategy transfered so we’ll see where this leads
stay tuned in the morning for SPX pivots…
BBMG Surges in Hong Kong Debut as China’s Cement Demand Rises on Stimulus
This is madness. And as predicted.
Asia was not in the same credit bubble as The West. But ‘economists’ have told China to pump like crazy on both monetary and fiscal stimulus. (I am not blaming anyone but The Chinese, I am blaming the policy).
von Mises taught us that the new money arrives in the hands of people close to the powers. They will speculate with it.
This is what you are seeing on Shanghai Stock Exchange now. It will not end well. I think this bubble and burst on Shanghai will go faster than people think. The economists who prescribed the medicine are probably not even aware that there is a bubble in China now.
Come September and the game should have ended already.
100% Cash
Larry: This is madness.
Leonidas: No, this is WallSt.
From Yahoo finance:
Asian markets retreat amid bubble worries
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian-markets-retreat-amid-apf-286992448.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
The SPY has treaded water since it poped up to $98 on 7/23, However, my Dec $75 PUTS have crawled up 10% since then.
Futures down right now. If the market opens down (or falls to) around 970 (or even a little lower for throw-under), THAT could be a w4 E wave to complete the 4. Then one last burst higher and onto our pullback. I want to see that phantom 5!
—and not some picayune thing, either.
Due to China mini-plunge, SPX futures hit a low of 964, 30 mins before London stockmarket opened. Trying to rally from here.
Yip it did rally, over 10pts up to 975 by 9.15am this morning.
Looks like that volume (6300+ contracts) on the 7.30am 5 min bar contained quite a bit of buying. Pretty high early morning volume.
Copper Warehouse LME
Larry:
Re: Copper
It’s down .10 too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a052XpqsRTFc
I get released today, before noon. They have nicknamed me “computer man”. I have two laptops on my portable tray. So I will get some trades in before going home where I will continue.
I’m doing something I never do – watch CNBC. Squawk Box is on now and I’m thinking… all of those opinions don’t mean anything. Put someone on that affects the “system” and I’ll listen.
P.S. I’m full of dope in the event I contradict myself so I have an excuse. All other times I use senility – an advantage when you get older. hehe
LMAO computer man!!!
futures want to roll over to 960′s
Ha, going home now, see ya on the flip side.
Awesome George!
possible buy signal on VXX brought to you by SuperK
I mentioned SMN yesterday over EAT and looks like they went opposite ways as planned
oops where are my manners
SPX for 29th July
R3 997.16
R2 989.76
R1 984.16
P 976.76
S1 971.16
S2 963.76
S3 958.16
current price 970.53 (just below S1) looks like support is breaking down
K, now you tell me ! i sold my VXX @ 62.76 for a small profit. figured i’d take something off the table (for now).
bought gas.to @ 5.95 a starter position again there.
Dressguard Says:
July 29th, 2009 at 2:12 am
Larry: This is madness.
Leonidas: No, this is WallSt.
>>>>>>>george>>>>>>>>at least you wont have to have dinner with leonidas tonite……….” spartans…..tonite we dine in HELL!.”
end of month approaching. i think i’ll keep the powder from my VXX sale for now, either buy it back lower or add DXD lower…
have a good one all !
K, yeah there seems to be no way to get irregular timeframes on TOS. Thanks for your updates. Not as old as our computer man but at least as senile, does get out of trade equal go short? dax not in line with futures, all a bit of a mixed bag here.
we have once again reversed
over the Pivot
after; i just got the early alert. on the chart the “B” is not yet printed
and no I am not buying VXX because i have VIX 27.5 august calls.
phil:
Re: Leonidas
Love that stuff man!
I think 6 billion for a mall is incorrect information even though the WSJ said it. That amount could build 50 malls.
“The clash over the Destiny project, which could have a price tag of as much as $6 billion”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124882292016488291.html
Who is the biggest high end clothing retailer in NYC?
974.5 is the futures pivot and it’s beaten the futures since 4:30PM last night (OK they did go over to 976 for a while but then got tired)
will it knock it down again?
DOLLAR is key to puzzle…see how dollar drop is mirror image of stock rally….if correct dollar rally begings soon….spx corrects…then when dollar pulls back spx makes final peak….we will see http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SnALKgJXSHI/AAAAAAAABaE/wrj-3dGJmR8/s1600-h/uup+60+min.png
ok the futures were once again defeated at 974.5 and they are down. i’m off now to the races (nah just stupid meetings)
I hope to see 950′s when I get back
GOLD already sees the writing on the wall of the dollar rally coming….it is ALREADY trading below its 18dsma…i believe gold will break 850 minimum
Yerk Says:
July 28th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
George, I hope you recover soon! Stay away from these doctors. It is like with a car you bring to a garage. They always find new stuff to fix or break something so you have to come back. Sleep well in your mickey mouse bed-linen.
>>>>>YERK>>>>>> how the heck do you think i was able to retire at 38?
phil,
Tks. I’m at home again.
How did you retire at 38?
SPY just hit some double bottoms and the 15min stochastic is near 20. Has already bounced some on a Tres Amigas, will see if it hangs on for a Tres Cruzars.
George,
Hope you have a super quick recovery. Don’t
slow it down by chasing the nurses around.
paula,
Thanks. My wife is the best nurse of them all so I’ll be chasing her. Wonderful woman.
Definately at a crossroads here.
george….sold my medical practice to my partners who wanted to make more money… i told them i think i have enough so they bought me out
george….see the triangle forming ?…i believe we POP THE TOP BEFORE WE FLOP……ie POP up to A then FLOP down to B http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-07-28_spx.png
S/B definitely. Drugs will do dat.
phil,
Good for you to choose life over $. I know it takes $ to have life, but if one is in a position to enjoy life more… go for it.
Have you all noticed what happened in China? FXP, the 2x inverse up 8% today. Seems likely to be a harbinger of things to come. Happened far more quickly than I’d anticipated…
George,
Not sure what happened, as I haven’t been reading the thread, but wish you the best!
george.. i loved medicine but i will tell you the story why i quit after 4pm
phil, I look forward to that story.
Marty, I had a couple of hernias that needed repairing. Nothing major.
hmmm, some good news must have hit the wire, the market is tanking a little here.
lol
all i know is without my options plays I would be making $1.75 with options am $140
SPY on trip bottoms. Volatility may follow.
I am loving the vix. just 2 more points baby and i’ll show you some love
George
Glad you are back, hope you get to normal soon. I found a better way to look for new highs. try looking at price range channel indicator. Upper, Mid , and Lower give a fairly neat picture on the hourly.
String
futures gotta hit 959 for me to be happy with this new bear
Stringm,
Tks. Is that a Average True Range (ATR) indicator?
Do or die time right now. Today could be a triangulated E wave. I can see 3-3-3-3-3. So we’ll see if we go up or yesterday was it.
Check the tick on the last sell-off.
George
No it is a price range channel indicator. You wiould have to build it as a custom indicator. Yo can play with the lengths you like I have the Upeer and Lower being shorter with the Mid being longer. Try the custom study wizard.
String
I don’t know what I did with that money Mom gave me for typing lessons, but it sure wasn’t typing lessons.
String
Stringm,
As long as we get 1/3 of correct letters in a word, that’s all is needed.
Joke of the day.
The only hot dog that needs a warning – Barney “Frank”.
George
I tried figuring out how to plot Buy and Sell backtest signals on a chart, but gave up and called. I have it, but don’t like the results. I always run my test in a lower time interval than what it is written in. Like the one I have now is a hourly, but I run in the 5m interval. If you right click on a results line in the spreadsheet it give you an option to plot. The problem is it puts it on a 5M chart, and no way to change to a 60M.
That is not why I am posting you though. I just found out you can get the TOS platform now that works with TD Ameritade accounts. So you can get all the TOS market Indicators like TRIN, TICK, etc.
I don’t even get 1/3 correct George, sometimes I leave out the whole word. Guess that is my brain and not my typing
String
spx is at same level as at 9:39am lol
Alphabet soup (TALF, etc.) has now officially spilled over into the stock market. Instead of ABCDE triangles, we are now getting ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQ triangles. Someone wake me when we get to Z.
JG
Z’s never come for an insomniac
String
Stringm,
I think I downloaded TOS several weeks ago. I’m going to activate it and see how it looks. Let me know if you think the programming functionality is better than SD.
Stringm… exactly! “when we get to z… aka sleep… instead of watching this nonsense. That’ll be the time to trade.
Inverse trying for those tops again. Got smacked down the last few times.
967 and then up?
963 then up
oh come on JG SGA needs to be turned on until 963 !
paula, I did have a look into the 3/20sma. I ran a test over the dow daily since 28. If 3sma is rising and 20sma rises more than .6% per day the average payout 20 days out is 1stdv above average. For comparison in the last move up the steepest rise was .35% per day. So don’t expect the condition to be met too often – didn’t happen once between 1939 and 1963. Was quite common in the 30ies though. All other combinations deliver either pretty average results or happen to seldom to be significant. What I take from it that the first days of a strong rise in the 20sma is likely to lead to further upside (of course at some point in time the move will top out, which this lagging indicator cannot identify).
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/goldman_sachs_a_1.html
This is painful… glad I’m on pain meds.
Sorry K, I want my 5.
Hi All,
haven’t posted for about a week now.. been super busy at home with 2 back to back car accidents (both of them involving elderly drivers hitting me), a new baby in the house and now a rolled ankle.. all in the span of 1 week. Crazy crazy times..
Just my 2 cents.. market is looking toppy, but action isn’t indicative of a major sell-off starting just yet. I’m going to give it a week so that the market decides if it wants to head back down or if it wants to try for SPY 1000 and then short the daylights out of this rally. Just IMO…
Wishing all the best of luck.. and fat wads of cash!!
paula,
All of my nurses were male
K thanks for the chart which is showing that national solutions to the crisis will not work (even if the congress is doing its best). Although using mutual share holdings to identify close relationships does not measure systemic risk. AIG is missing on the chart… but it has Bear Stearns on it. Oh well – too much complexity me thinks.
Yerk:
Did you find William Cohen’s “House of Cards” to pass muster?
Charlie,
Hope next week goes better for you! Hopefully you weren’t hurt in the car accidents.
JG it’s ok you just turned my $140 into $64 but we’re still friends
Mitch, sorry haven’t read it so can’t comment on it.
Yerk:
Bear Stearns’ had an incredible record for 85 years. When an index was created for MBS, what started as bids turned into back stabbing self serving counterparty low ball marks that started the great deleveraging. The books can have been ran off much more orderly but noooo . . . we had to have a systemic near great depression recession.
“The books could have been . . .” Sorry multitasking here.
New Futures pivots
R3 992
R2 984
R1 980
P 972
S1 968
S2 960
S3 956
Currently at 976 (Above the pivot.) we’ll see if it touches 980 tonight and tomorrow. Just sayin…
i just realized this… but on the /ES there is an hr each day where the futures don’t trade? 17:25 -18:45
an interesting exit strategy!
http://is.gd/1Tq4d
Yerk,
Thamks for your analysis. In my humble
opinion in order to get a big move you
need the moving average that defines
the short term trend and the moving
average that defines the intermediate
term trend moving in the same direction.
I use with success the SPX 3 day moving
average for the short term trend and the
SPX 20 day moving average for the
intermediate term trend. I agree moving
averages are lagging indicators, and I
use momentum to time an exit.
Yerk,
Please excuse typo’s.