Now we know why the rally can’t pick up any volume: pension funds, which manage $3 trillion in assets are shunning stocks. Bloomberg story here.
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and how can they not lose confidence when Key lender CIT posts $1.68B loss, threatens bankruptcy….. wait didn’t they already survive going into one? WOW
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-08-18-cit-earnings_N.htm?csp=34
China down over 4%, futures down over 7.25 right now. I tend to favor this being a 1,2 1,2 move down with a large 3 (starting Wednesday) on the map. Tuesday’s rally could have been a w4, but the air is starting to smell better. SGA is ON.
Ah, SGA spells relief. Thanks, JG!
That’s a spectacular fall in Shanghai, our futures are down 9.7.
Dollar edging up. The news that China had lowered its dollar holdings may have dampened spirits, but debt destruction in the US will continue to push it up.
Matt, so they are reducing risk after the crash?? What exactly do I need an investment manager for?
Have a look at the chart sample here and think about the one with the red line after scrolling through them:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-overwhelming-deflationary-evidence.html
today futures so far went as far as 990 and 991 is still holding like a wall. I am still waiting to see a few more clues to tell me complete sell but SuperK already jumped on the boat.
JUNGLEGIRL.. I believe you are wrong about 1,2 1,2….but i have the luxury of waiting to see if you are right before i buy more…the answer should be clear very soon….here is the bearish view http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sossj6i7j5I/AAAAAAAABbU/cGWTZ751OEs/s1600-h/spx+30.png
Baltic Dry turning south again. Crude tanker rates are scraping along at absolute rock-bottom.
The Chinese State will probably soon start buying shares to support the bubble. If only Keynes and Friedman had known that people would actually take them seriously.
>>>>The Chinese State will probably soon start buying shares to support the bubble
Larry:
Well they can’t issue bonds (yet) so I think they will be in the currency market. Not sure what they’ll be buying yet but I have a good guess.
TBT now hitting daily high after initial drop. IYM also getting up off the floor.
phil what’s your personal theory for the economy? Can you stretch it out a bit?
selling more TLT into this surge…..very little TLT left now …going to plow tlt profits into stocks
MITCH….i havent a clue about the economy and i dont care…its hard enough trying to figure out the markets .. i dont have time to think about the economy
MITCH…are you long TBT?
phil:
Can’t reveal a short so easily- marty will hunt me down.
very dangerous to short bonds now…..trend is now sideways to higher…i am an aggressive buyer of TLT and bonds on severe dips
stock correction could be over and UPWARD BLAST begins if we get OVERLAP of 992.40
double up longs now with stop @978.50
>>>>double up longs now with stop @978.50
phil: General why are you sending that many soldiers into the field?
only took 1/2 position @ lows on monday…if i am right i will not get another chance to buy there or at 960
stop now @ breakeven…looking for upward acceleration now
phil:
You have a hurricane at your back . . . . we’ll see.
Mitch. Wow, that’s some serious action in oil. Crude tanker rates have been awful for weeks and then we go bananas on this. I guess there’s plenty of booze left and Cushing, Oklahoma runs the show.
profits taken on full position…..dont like what i see
cant risk that jungle girl might be right
got a buy on CZZ hmm
Hi gang..
quite a MOAR we have here today. How’s everyone doing? Market doesn’t seem to care that Asia is imploding…
Phil: Did you get back in?
UUP stopped its fall a few minutes ago right where it had to. Market sell-off may start now. Effect of today’s pole-pennant-ramp was to raise the SPX target of the anticipated fall.
K:
Excellent call with CZZ. This Oklahoma bull is pissed and has mother nature behind him – maybe ride to 8.06?
JIM…we are going higher but its not worth the possibility that this counter trend rally is near an end….i still think i can buy below mondays low later but if it runs up without me ….thems the breaks….NO WAY i would short this thing
sadly mitch my order never executed.!
the great SPY bull is here!! LOL (just kidding)
mitch…..i want to buy a hard break in bonds
am pissed CZZ got 200 shares while it told me couldn’t execute order.. lol not a good day.
999.61 was on less momentum than the spike just previous. UUP held, and is now up a bit. We are also close to an upper channel line for the SPX.
phil:
How far down before you do that?
all according to my (and JG’s plan so far)
tlt 1 pt lower nibble….2pts lower gorge
i will buy the coupon treasuries …no more tlt
phil:
Thanks.
mitch..you see the good rally bonds had with just a small stock correction….during this final rally in stocks ..bonds should correct..then…..when stocks crumble….bonds will soar
I’m going to turn this patient over to JG and buy K’s signals. I’m tired.
Mitch,
You’re short?! How dare you!:) No, seriously, I do not discriminate–and I don’t believe in “being” a long or a short. If I can identify the trend, I will play it that way. Monday was a major distribution day no question about it. It’s a warning to longs, or a fake out. Hard to say. I’ll be a buyer if the market goes to 930 though.
My TLT is cruising along. I’m holding Back in the sh-city today. I unloaded a couple of long positions into the strength yesterday and raised a little cash. FXP is a bit of a disappointment. I bought it almost at the china market high, now down 20%, but it’s up only about 11% At least a 5% differential, since it shorts H-shares, it turns out. I’d not even bothered to look. Didn’t do my DD.
CTIC has jumped today. And C is holding its own.
K is more exhausted than you Mitch,
system making $15
knucklehead losing $135 lol
Marty, 988 we will probably reach within the next 2 days again. market shot up too fast today thanks to the crude inventories being negative.
Hi marty:
I just set up a good race car (good basket of three that has made money 3 days now) or a good hiding place with some munchies in there (LOL) – doesn’t matter which as long as it works right?
marty:
I raised some cash too to tweak the car for the general thesis.
That’s right. But I don’t think I’ll go heavily, but I might take a couple of bets on high-flying china stocks. BIDU, CYOU, and even, tell me what you think, FUQI. If you miss it on the way up, you can catch it on the way down.
Phil,
You’re taking profits on TLT here. I think 96 is easily within range. Why aren’t you playing TLT anymore and opting for the coupons?
Short bets… just to be clear.
marty,
sumthin aint right with TLT i just can’t pick out what
K,
Hmmm….. One thing I’d noticed is that it’s moves have some delay in them, and they’re not entirely inverse to equities. But that’s not what you mean, right?
marty:
Everyone has their own interpretation of why we move around. I thought the Empire Indexes and the hurricane blasting oil players (oil up NOT $ down) were major stick saves this week for the longs. Friday will squeeze the players who misread these actions – unless they get the story and adjust now. My guess is Friday squeezes the shorts (I’ll be among the squeezed). We’ll see.
yeah i have a buy signal since a week ago i think so it’s been doing well (i own none maybe that’s why) but yup lately there has been a delay in price movement. sometimes is a good thing but most times is scary
Hey Mitch,
just be careful shorting.. today, if the morning down gap was not filled so quickly, I would be more bearish than bullish, but given reversal today.. I’m sitting on cash…
as a note.. financials have been the laggards today with GS being an obvious sign of weakness. If they get their act together.. we could shoot right back up over 1000 on the SPX.
One more thing to note is that if the VIX is up and SPX is up.. then there is a good chance of a down day tomorrow. Just saying.. but this rule seems to have been violated a lot lately. Will look for a EOD short if things are starting to look toppy.
marty……size of position much larger now….if i have to sell near end of month i will lose a big dividend with tlt….my interest accrues daily with the coupon bond and i can adjust maturity…tlt is forever if you are wrong
marty…..still possible new low in bonds with final high in stocks ahead..
Charlie:
Very good points.
Three Amigas Sell Signal on SPX 15.
JG! JG! JG!
Mitch… ROFL!
Government reaches deal to access as many as 5000 UBS accounts that US investors might have used to avoid taxes.
DAMN IT!!! now am ruined. no more poor schoolboy. i’ll be taxed out of nowhere
I told you JG and my Plan were still working LOL
let’s go get em!!!
boll bands pinching…something big about to happen… if i am right it is going to be the start of wave c down to 960 buy area
blue B is target….961- 943 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SonFOhIfwqI/AAAAAAAABak/g6f3YHqBET4/s1600-h/spx.png
Hey Mitch.. having said all of that above.. I did just take a short position once again on SPY 98 PUTs @ about 3:05pm.
I don’t listen to myself very well.
Charlie:
That’s funny. Are you in the front month?
I did SEPT puts.. to give me more room for error. I do think that we will end Friday above 100 on the SPY though for some reason, but not much higher than that I believe.
The US market can’t keep going up with Asia imploding.. but we could see the 100 line on the SPY held until Friday at least due to options X.
btw.. this PUT position is to be a very short term trade.. a day trade if the markets end badly today or a 2 day swing trade at the longest… just so you know.
That is assuming the markets don’t suddenly implode.. if they take out 978 on the SPX.. then I will either hold or add to my shorts.
Charlie:
There will be an empty pocket when Hurricane Bill is gone. The trick will be finding the next reason to hang in there for the longs – story developing.
people seem too anxious to short…..tells me this upward b wave may not be over yet
JG.. how is that 3 amigas sell signal looking right now?
we may have to ….POP the top before we FLOP
jungle girl…..beware that this could be 1, 2 ….1 ,2 to the UPSIDE…wouldnt that be a surprise????
anyone short overnite ….beware of huge upside gap tomorrow…fair warning
Watching and thinking Phil.. but thanks for the warning.. will post what I do with my SPY short position.
Charlie, it’s still good. Move up to bang the 9 MA (or spike it) then lower happens all the time.
phil @ 3:48, yes, that is possible. But watching the dollar right now pushes me more toward bearish action.
they tried the downside gap today and it failed…what do you suppose they will try tomorrow???
JG….i have no position now…sometimes u can see more clealy from the sidelines
could go either way from what i see….but would you expect anything else????? lol
phil – huge upside gap would be surprising to me. Anyway I’m still out of sync as I made some money on the short side today and missed the long action. But it was a nice day in the sun
I jumped out of my position as a FYI.. even if the market is flat to slightly red in the morning, those SEPT options are going to start degrading in value rather quickly overnight given the AUG options expire Friday. This is based on past exp that I’ve noticed. VIX also seems to have a little bit more room to fall. Will buy back my short position in the morning most likely… but expecting a little bounce in Asia tonight which might add some more “green shoots” to the the bull story in the AM.
Will see of course..
JG.. are you short and what position did you take if you don’t mind me asking?
Also.. the 3pm pull back that I shorted seemed to lack the volume / conviction I was hoping for. Took small loss, but still up a lot for the week thanks to Monday.
Check out $bpspx. Sentiment is extremely bullish here.(79%) A few days ago, it was higher than the 2007 peak. All I can say is bulls beware!
Phil,
I dumped more positions today–some LVS, some FCS, and some BAC, all for single-digit profits. Whatever’s unfolding will be doing so for a couple more weeks, so I’m moving to cash to protect my nice profits for the year. I did this, however, still feeling like this market is about to make a major move up. I will jump back in once that directional confirmation is provided. The Monday sell-off was for real, and although I keep seeing strength in a few pockets, whatever direction it takes will be stronger than people are predicting, I think.
Still long TLT, though, as a hedge for the few longs I’m still holding hoping for breakouts.
Germany braces for second wave of credit crunch
Germany’s economics ministry is drawing up a raft of special measures with the Bundesbank to head off a fresh financial crisis, fearing that a loan squeeze by struggling banks will set off a serious credit crunch early next year.
Beam me up SHORT(y)
U.S. Recession May Have Ended in June, Goldman’s McKelvey Says
The worst U.S. recession since the 1930s may already be over, according to Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLj7cQEMC_O0