The XLF raced above its August 31st gap on Tuesday, and successfully back-tested the top of the gap at 14.76 twice before running higher. It looked like the matter was closed, but a wave of selling in the last half-hour drove the XLF to a dramatic 4pm close at 14.75. So, the gap is still open, but is now just a sliver only one penny high.
A big part of the market’s problem was due to the IWM hitting its October 6th gap that I mentioned yesterday. The IWM closed at 60.56, which is only two pennies away from the bottom of the gap at the 60.54 level that I mentioned yesterday. Of course, the IWM represents 2,000 small-cap stocks, many of which will have corresponding gaps in this area. If many of these stocks stall, or pull back here, it is possible that the rest of market will do likewise. Another possibility is that money will rotate into larger stocks.
So many possibilities but in the end only going up.
Hard to believe futes are up again.I am really starting to side with Phils dow 16000.Watch us trade 1000-1200 next 12-16 months until valuations are back in line.400-650 S&P is nothing more than a pipe dream.Easy money was made last fall
Hard to believe futes are up again.I am really starting to side with Phils dow 16000.Watch us trade 1000-1200 next 12-16 months until valuations are back in line.400-650 S&P is nothing more than a pipe dream.Easy money was made last fall
Also it seems that 75% of the bears/people have left this site
I’m still here (been away for a days here and there though) and mostly bearish.
FTSE has gapped up to R1 on first 7 min bar of trading this morning.
K, no it is not the regular 15min trading break 15 min after the close. I’m talking about data points missing during market hours which do not get updated later. Better watch out because short term indicators get messed up.
dax established itself above 5650 -> melt-up possible. The little bear in me sees the possibility of gap up & gap close today. If this takes the dax below 5650 a ST retracement is likely. The rising wedge has to be painted to perfection. Is it already being mentioned on cnbc?
FTSE (Sept) future has reached 5100 level (and R2) this morning.
Dow is still lagging FTSE on a daily / weekly basis. Usually (over the years) the Dow is double the level of the FTSE, so you would expect Dow to be approx 10,200, but then there is nothing usual about current mkt action.
Scotty, we are still here. The easy money was made this spring. Now we have panic buying.
100 cash
Yerk, what are you saying? The DAX will go to new ALL TIME HIGHS. There are only buyers and absolutely no sellers. Who cares what the valuations are? You can find yourself a happy man to still find some available stocks to buy out there.
still unfortunately bearish here, after taking a bath on dxd on qid, now taking next bath on vxx…did make some coin on gas.to and sitting with some gold shares that are now doing a bit better…
added spy oct 99 puts yesterday @ .9, these aren’t looking so good either…
bottom line, adding a bit here and there to vxx but waiting for if/when ndx hits 1740/50 to add in size to bearish positions…would buy gas.to again at 4.50 or less…will look at UNG in oct.
best wishes
Dressguard, one step at a time
I was talking about the first two hours in US trading. And after 10 up days, a doji would be in order – the bulls need a sharp retracement anyway or their case gets too overextended.
US$ in free-fall mode right now heating up the stock markets to the melting point. Then the big collapse. It’s good to have some € in one’s bank account these days.
after, ndx 1740 is a good potential turning point.
Larry buying panic – I love these days when k+s ceo warns the outlook is rather bleak, analysts downgrade and the stock moves up another 5%
dressguard, yeah people think the Euro is safe. That is an interesting proposition. Larry should be fine with his kroners.
Good point, Yerk! Just image what would have happened if they said they will thrive and would be upgraded? Well, actually it wouldn’t have made any difference. Who cares about ratings and P/Es?
FTSE storming up (like a trend day) with hardly any retracements to speak of …. 5115 now …. next stop R3 !!!
Yerk, norsky kroner are doing great. I think it’s soon time to move Asian.
2. On roundabout in SE Asia. Export/import still low. Flattish everywhere, but I think cost cuts will save Q3. Boom in Gov’t Stimuli. And speculation in tea prices. Let the Bulls run to November 1.
1st November is too late. Correction coming sooner.
Haven’t left. Just got busy. Got hosed on UNG. Made most of it up, though with the spike in DVAX last week. But then, I’m not one of the true bears….
cheers to all.
Europe markets green, Asia, markets almost all green according to iPhone App.
The SPY bullish engulfing candle is playing out – or up.
A correction is due at some point.
Bullish market doesn’t have to have a bullish economy? Guess not.
can we have one spike up @ 9am to confirm the correction? double top on dax, futures. Come on, someday this thing has to come down – maybe 10 pts
There was an article out about the Barclays/Lehman/JPM deal of last year. It blows my mind how these guys can pull of such electronic feats at the last hour. Sometimes it’s as simple as an ID# matching a $ figure but from the article it seemed as if it took some human intervention to “get the good stuff” Barclays wanted as opposed to the “bad stuff” nobody wants.
Today though – Barclays is being accused of getting a windfall . . . .
Ok, back to the stock market spectacle.
Yerk, why should it ever go down? You just have to believe. That’s the whole trick.
then it can go up again
5pts so far…
Yeah Barclays is currently being bashed for buying chunks of Lehman on the so-called cheap but I don’t recall anyone else interested this time last year.
BCS gets in the Lehman negotiation room w/out shareholder authority? First question to Diamond – “can you close WITHOUT a Lehman bankruptcy?” Diamond: “No” Paulson: “ok, check you later -next.”
SOLD SSO
phil, NICE! I’m with ya.
Tops and bottoms intraday here.
george….thanks but i gotta go and i dont like this overlapping…..hasta
a high at spx 1057.59 misses the 50% box of bulls level by 0.01. GS screwing up?
Yerk, good catch. I was actually just wondering where we were in relation to the Box ‘O Bulls.
Next is the Box ‘O Chocolates.
In July, SPY had a 23 day splurge to the upside before a correction. There were a couple of down days during that time but didn’t amount to much.
I’m still eyeballing those gaps SPY left behind a few days ago, but not as excited about it now because SPX and other indicies didn’t have that gap. Pooh.
SPY trying to bust through those tops again.
Yerk,
We made that 50% in the Bull Pen.
Larry, Yerk,& George,
If you would like to know where the SPX
is going based on cycles, checkout…
…chartsedge.com…
The SPX cycle runs from 16 to 22 weeks. We
try to take 85% of the profits that the cycle
has to offer. No one knows how long the cycle
will be ahead of time, but this cycle is starting
to look like a 16 week cycle.
BBT losing its luster.
Thanks Paula, I’ll check it out. Luv them cycles.
Any bets on when SKF will become a teenager? Only $6 away.
But don’t you know what it will do if and when there is a major correction? Mercy! It has a gap at $80 that has my attention.
…and it will get there one day.
Wow, botatious selling spikes coming in.
I mean, spikes to the downside, don’t know if that is selling or not.
SKF gap at 80…and it will get there one day…
That is one gutsy call George, the full faith and credit of the USA and Govt’s unlimited propensity to give away taxpayer money is betting against you…
DOW 9766 will confirm upside accelleration…..then all systems are go for LIFTOFF
George,
1060 hit spx. I have kept a chart secret but if we close above 1060 today it will be a great 777 november
ACCELERATION…..sorry
K…..it is possible we could close up 777 points in one day
GAP up dow 250 points then run all day up 500 more
phil:
Pretty powerful stuff here.
BOUGHT UYG….looks like upward acceleration begins
I donno, something ain’t clickin’ right. Lots of SD spikes. Usually means a change coming. Haven’t seen those in ages.
I’m out of my longs. Toppy here.
K,
I’ve been waiting all morning for you to say -777! You made my day.
Stringm,
I don’t know about your SD charts but the spikes have been eating mine up today.
Your method of getting rid of them is working well.
Time to let a few more bears in for another feast this afternoon. Grrrrr.
George,
School kept me from saying it but when I say it you’ll see the effects. People are on the edge of the skyscraper thinking clouds will hold them. But when white clouds clear and there is nothing below except 777 stories down then sorry you should have stopped chasing.
Sold aapl 200 Oct calls for probably 100%+ profit. Will update when I get home.
JPM should have been calls but its ok ill play waiting game for a week
K,
Wow, yeah, AAPL up 6+ bucks today. Nice one.
Possible exit stage left for GS, JPM & BCS.
Yep, something going on for sure.
OK, SD is just screwed up right now. Can’t tell anything from all the spikes.
George
SD is a mess today not only are there spikes, the change today in the screener spreadsheets is wrong. Makes it impossible to know what is really happening. I am using TOS today.
String
BOUGHT DDM
Stringm,
Thanks. I have TOS but have not used it. Do you use the web-based or program TOS?
Matt, you can throw away your daily withholding taxes chart. This blog is about trading not the real economy.
Dressguard:
That’s what it is! I thought something was wrong with me. I’m on a trading blog. Tuddles . . . lol
George
Program based. I was using TOS with an account there. Now I just use the TD version of the same platform.
String
Does 9777 count as 777 ? LOL
DOW 10000 tomorrow
OK Stringm, I think I’ll do the same.
Thanks
phil,
LOL!
K, That’s close enough. But get rid of the “9″, OK?
Stringm,
If this market reverses, SD with spikes will be the closest thing I have to “predict” the future.
wow 1050 to 1150 by 1st week of Oct
George
I am beginning to think that old saying about what goes up must come down is not true. If the US is trying to sell their CITI shares, you can bet it will not reverse before they do.
String
Phil at what point do you see a meaningful correction and how big. i think we have relativley weak resistance to 1150. look what happened to 1050,sliced right thru it.Eveyone and the mother was calling 1053 the top and end to R2
Stringm, I wonder how they do that? They’ll make 35b on the deal and raise taxes to pay commissions.
“The New Normal” T-bills/notes/bonds AND Munis AND Equities all are profitable.Gas, food, housing all cheaper. Unemployment benefits keep rolling in. 401k safe and sound. Health care delivered cheaper and better. Toxic assets are recyclable and renewable.
Eutopia. What’s wrong with JPM?
Paula
If today ends like it is now, we would have the SPX up and VIX up. Didn’t you have some stats for the next day on that?
String
scotty….i posted that 1053 would announce the upward acceleration phase now confirmed by DOW above 9766
Every stochastic bottom being bought on SPY. We’re not there yet. Just a little profit-taking going on.
Must have hit Matt’s gap and reversed. It will most likely try again.
MITCH….never mind all that…….LOOK at JUNK bonds …… they are SOARING
Hey, that was the October SPY gap I thought would be filled. Wasn’t even watching. I’m not sure if it was filled though, It was maybe half-filled.
Now to drop down to the 8th and get that lower gap.
MITCH….we are wasting our time with stocks and whatnot…JUNK is KING!!!!
phil,
Is that a safe haven – junk bonds? You think that’s why their being bought?
WATCH…trannies ..may be warning of quick correction
phil:
I forgot that – no bankruptcies!!
george…..no speculation and risk taking encouraged by 0% rates..just as bernanke wanted
of course this will all end badly but not before spx 1600
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2009/0915.html
Phil:
Tranys make the “spark” huh?
scroll down to bottom to see junk bond index almost at new highs
geez phil in what time frame??? 6 months,1 year 2years??
scotty…….i dont know…….the trend is strongly up….that is all u need to know
And “Money Never Sleeps”
George
Those spikes down will scare the beejeebers out of you if you own the stock. Not good for the heart!
String
Stringm,
Yeah, glad they’re not real.
Hey, I didn’t see TOS on TDAmeritrade’s website. Is that where you got it?
BOUGHT more UYG
DOW 10000 tomorrow
Phil,
Nice going on UYG.
George
You will have to login to your account. Then on the right hand top corner you will find a banner about TOS. Or at least it is on mine. Hope that helps.
String
george….i figure if this thing is going up i can get more bang for the buck with a 6 dollar stock…i think it makes 7 dollars without too much problem