The XME has hardly rallied at all this week, and is, by far, the worst performing sector since the market’s peak on the 23rd. It is down 6.4% since then, which is almost twice as much as the second-worse XHB. The XME’s five-bar pattern on the daily chart is exactly what a bear flag should look like. A 100% completion would target the gap from September 9th down at 42.38. The SMN, the inverse ETF, would of course shoot up if the XME dropped. But we have big economic reports Wednesday morning, and if they fuel a rally, the XME might be expected to play “catch up” and outperform to the upside.
Breadth got very stretched on Monday, so a bullish take on Tuesday’s action would be that the market worked off a short-term overbought condition while only giving up a few points in the process.
Film at 11.
In other news… The new, giant, bunker-busters won’t be ready until December or January. So, probably no strike on Iran before then.
K,
The generic iPhone is limited in its ability to run most popular apps like Java, Silverlight, Flash, etc. There’s only one approved browser… Safari.
However, a “jailbroken” iPhone can run almost anything. It is a relatively safe procedure that can be reversed. The downside is that once broken the iPhone will now be venerable to all the viruses and such, associated with freedom.
My take on the iTouch popularity downturn is that one can get an iPhone at the same price and service plan costs as the Touch, so why have separate devices?
With 72,000+ apps (most are free or very inexpensive, like .99c) available for the iPhone, there is sufficient functionality to fill any perceived gaps.
Thar she blows,stick a fork i her
This is Phil’s scary move before the next push up?
All of this downage because of the good news that came out. Let’s see if SKF can get a buck today.
K is pulling for -777 on the DOW.
They said no sequels after Scary Movie 6, but maybe this is 7?
Europe sure starting tanking right after our open, Larry is in bear heaven right now.
Good Morning George:
You might be old enough to remember Bob Seger’s “Ship of Fools.” Some of these massive waves down really make one feel alone and one has to pull one’s own switches when it’s time.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for September has just been released. It came in at 46.1, which is below the 52.0 that was widely expected and down from the 50.0 that was registered in August.
Nothing screams recovery like an impending CIT bankruptcy and a horrendous PMI report.
GEORGE…….dow has overlapped ….ndx and spx are still ok but upward acceleration is looking SHAKY….oops one of my horns fell off….i am 1/3 DEVOLVED from BULL to CALF……….
ERGO….short hedges are in order again
your bull is dead his other horn just fell off
GEORGE….see $TYX is still struggling with resistance even tho stocks down??….i want to sell more bonds on further rally
Mitch,
Yes, I remember Seger. I also remember his “Like A Rock” where his fans got very upset when he allowed GM to use that song in their commercials. Silly.
SCOTTY….no…..upward acceleration is less likely….still can work higher
So, the question is, will shorts hold on like a rock or will they cover like jello?
phil,
I think you may have something here with the spooky moves.
SCOTTY..ABOVE 1039.47 UPWARD ACCELERATION STILL ALIVE http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SsLVwSEDyKI/AAAAAAAACD0/PORWPWOIPnc/s1600-h/SPX60min2.png
Phil:
TYX is looking at busting support as yields head lower. Not getting your referring to a resistance – I see it sitting on key support.
George:
re: Seger
They were his Ford fans maybe?
mitch….yes $ tyx is yield so u r correct…i trade bonds so i look at it as price resistance to sell at
Mitch,
Yeah, I may have gotten that wrong… one of those trucks.
I’ve drawn two horizontal lines on the 1min SPY. Waiting for it to break one way or the other.
MITCH…long ago i posted i want to sell my 30 yr t bonds at 4.03%..i did that yesterday…..now if YIELD can bust SUPPORT….i will start unloading my ZERO COUPON treasuries into that YIELD decline…as ZEROES zoom up in price
No George, his Ford fans couldn’t have him giving the rock status to a Chevy so they complained perhaps. Neither of them are rocks anymore – fuel cost and motor strain pushing a heavy chevy is prohibitive. Matt will probably get around to posting on energy at some point – I can’t wait.
George, looks like a bear flag to me. Volume diminishing thru construction. Supposed to resolve to the downside.
Bear flags… wow… remember those? Been awhile.
Mitch,
Gotcha. Just goes to show how much of an impression those commercials made on me. Either that or the lack of retention on my part.
JG,
Thanks. I’m getting a buy on SPY though.
JG, I wouldn’t know a bear flag if it hit me. There has to be some retracement here with that knee-jerk move down. I got some SSO when the upper trendline was broken along with a Tres Amigos. May not go far but the 15min sto is starting to turn up.
BBT cleared its 5min 36MA, working on 15min 36MA. Nice stock.
JG,
What time frame do you see that bear flag?
Spy sell on my system. Of course I called it 2 days ago.
String,
If we can go below the SPX 21 DMA, we will
have it made.
Do you keep a notebook on the market? If
you don’t, you might want to consider it.
What do you want to trade? What fits your
comfort level? What tools will you use to
trade with? Suggest you take a look at
OEX index Jan call options when this SPX
cycle hits bottom. In the last cycle the OEX
bottom was around 408. The move up took
it to 499. If you bought Oct call options
30 points out of the money, you would
have made a ton of money in 11 weeks.
The nice thing about trading the cycle is
that you have room for error and you still
make a small fortune.
1057.66 OVERLAP needed to keep upward acceleration alive
SPY working its way up to the 5min 36MA… at least in that direction I don’t see much resistance.
call it 1058
BBT ICE bucking the trend. SPY now backing off 5min 36MA. Could try again.
SCOTTY……..i am starting to EVOLVE again ….my horn is growing back
just a spike yet ?
Or should I say nub
SKF now at 5min 36MA support. Time to buy if 1min gives signal.
George,
I was looking at the 1 and 5 minute charts. The longer a formation lasts, the higher up you can see it. Sometimes flags show up on daily or weekly charts, where the whole flag lasts a period of months.
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:flag_pennant_continu
As you are the ScalpMaster and have special superpowers allowing you to scalp a 15 second move, all this is likely irrelevant for you.
Current action could be a subwave 4, piercing the 38 Fib retracement. Today will be interesting. Already has been!
george…i still have no short hedges yet……still waiting to see if overlap
i was looking through the dow stock charts ..they look crappy…i will short via DXD
Paula
I will have to get back to you. I am having back issues and can not sit for any length of time. I have a visit at the Docs this PM.
String
Phil any difference in ddm puts and dxd calls?
JG,
Great info. I have stockcharts and didn’t even know that stuff was there. Shame on me.
I’m always trying to learn all I can about price movement and patterns to become “new and improved”. I just bought $160 of trading materials. So all of this is relevant.
My trades begin as a scalp but many end up longer than the requisite 15sec. Like the BBT this morning was at 10:25 and I just exited. Or SSO was a keeper all AM so far. So scalp is the default and trends is the hope.
Once I am aware of patterns or whatever, I can see them clearly after I learn what to look for. Matt pointed out divergences and I dream about them at night now.
Thanks for the link and brain picking. It’s always helpful.
scotty….i dont trade options…. most expire worthless
Stringm,
Here’s to hoping you feel better. That’s the worse problem to have because it’s affected by all other movements.
if we do get upward acceleration options could be used…otherwise if it goes slowly you could be right and lose money
SKF broke down below its 5min 36MA. Next stop 15min. SPY is still racing toward its 15min marker.
depends how far out you buy them,hardest thing to do is stick to your trading plan.don’t know how many times i tried to eek out another 5-10% and have the market turn.
spx riding upper bb …looks like we will confirm upside continuation
i will NOT be putting on any short hedges
Intraday today looks like 2008-2009. So the next 3 hours will show us the next 2 years
wow what a turn around now what? whipsaw
phil Says:
September 30th, 2009 at 10:29 am
SCOTTY..ABOVE 1039.47 UPWARD ACCELERATION STILL ALIVE http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SsLVwSEDyKI/AAAAAAAACD0/PORWPWOIPnc/s1600-h/SPX60min2.png
String,
Hope you have a quick recovery.
IF this is WAVE 3 of 3 up now there will be no doubt SOON
STRING…..hope your doc can get you some relief…health is #1
FAIR WARNING…..being short here can be hazardous to your WEALTH
Lets see if the bulls expended all there energy getting this market to even,need a nice green push here to get this back over 1062?
9825 close
wow
Tres Cruzars alive and well on SPY today.
Set’em up bar keep… green shooters all ’round for the patrons.
ABOVE 1070 there is FULL IGNITION and LIFT OFF !!!
SPY coming up on some serious tops.
Larry,
It ain’t over with yet.
I mean, the DAY isn’t over with yet. It could drop just as quickly. These define turning points?
yes we dropped into the close the last 2 days so we are no way out of the woods yet.
Glenn Neely sent out a CYA…S&P 500 forecasts
are difficult to make right now due to the market
phase.
String,
I took a quick look at how much you would have
made buying OEX Oct call options 30 points out
of the money. Each option would have cost you
around $900.00 and would have been worth
around $6000.00 11 weeks later. If you had
bought 10 options, you would have made
around $51,000.00 while rocking in your chair
for 11 weeks.
String,
SPX options have a higher leverage than the
OEX options do…but they also cost more
and you cannot mark them to market until
ops. exp. You can mark OEX options to
market any time you want to, and that’s
why market makers try for a little premium
in the OEX options.
we hit major constipation at 1061 again,need major push to get thru here
CHRIS CAROLAN SPIRAL CALENDAR TOP http://carolan.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/092809spiral.gif
paula…dont you love neely?…..wasnt he just on crash alert a few weeks ago????then cancelled it…..like rosanna rosannadanna….nevvverrrmind
JUNGLEGIRL……i cant believe the dollar has much more downside….i am selling my gold into this rally…..im with you…going to buy UUP soon
phil is that chart suppose to show a top at 10700
Just like clockwork 2:55 and the market goes down 4 out 5 days.
SCOTTY…the spiral calendar pinpoints dates…..top due oct 4 to 11…his best guess is oct 9……level is not considered only date
market just shoved its finger down its throat
Matt,
What happened to your treasuries data?
put on short hedges at 1pm surge…….covered 1/2 of shorts now
scotty,
Question is, will the market keep the finger down its throat. lol
SPY ain’t giving up. It needs to fill that gap at 107. !
GEORGE…this sideways thrashing is looking like a triangle…if so a post triangle thrust is coming….remember we saw that before??
George,honestly i have no idea anymore,when we could not break 1061 i should have figured we would drop.In hindsight that was so obvious
scotty…believe it or not risk is still to the UPSIDE….i am favoring a 4th wave triangle now …
NO UPSIDE. cool it phil
lol
K….you should be glad if it is a4th wave….that means correction OR WORSE is near
SPY has worked its way back up to 5min 36ma so the shots are running scared… no commitment. YET.
shorts, not shots
If SKF 5min crosses down below its 36MA that will make two Humpty-Dumbties for it. That’s good trading scenario.
We gotcha George
wow idi that get ugly,in a blink of an eye -15 to -45
George,
looks like i wont get my 1035 by tomorrow but it was close. can’t fight goldman I guess. might have to settle for 1053
Question for ‘ya K – is GS your Joker or your Batman?
batman
K: Thought I’d ask. Have fun.
I guess I should not believe in conspiracies huh?
got my ortho core paula. gonna start with one a day instead of 6
LMFAO
Bank of America’s Chief Executive Ken Lewis to Retire Dec. 31
No successor named.
Really? awww
K,
Good luck with your Ortho Core. If you
get a chance visit the AOR home and
read how they formulate their products.