Wednesday’s Trading – 9/8/2010

One of my jackass stalkers sent me a nasty-gram that read:

“You need a new dog. All you do is dog everyone else. How about some news we can use?”

But on the night before the market topped, I published a “TRIN Alert” and wrote:

“The odds definitely favor the bears at this juncture.”

Note to jackass: Exactly which part of “favor the bears” don’t you understand?

My “Fractal Dimension Index End-of-Trend Signal” from Saturday also worked well. If you had a futures account, you could have put a short position on Sunday and caught all of Tuesday’s drop. Even if you shorted SPY at the open on Tuesday, your trade was in the green all day, except for a brief dip into the red at 9:45am.

Note to jackass: If you couldn’t make any money on Tuesday, then your wife should take away your trading account.

65 Responses to “Wednesday’s Trading – 9/8/2010”

  1. 2thfixr says:

    Forgot to mention that I picked up DZZ (double short gold) at $10.34 on Tuesday…I’m looking for above $12 as an exit on half, holding the other half until shown a reason not to hold it.

  2. Mitch says:

    Matt,

    I usually find your critique of CNBC moderators to be fair and most always the posts here deals with the opinions of the moderators, show hosts (Kudlow – not a moderator :)) and their guests. That’s how it’s supposed to be if you ask me. Usually aggressive but not dogmatic (Pento/Schiff) and always content driven (ok maybe there was a note about lil house on the prairie). Everyone that trades or muses comes to a conclusion or has strong opinions – why not share them for a full discourse in a semi-public forum?

    Who else is going to do it intelligently and with some fairness drawn from experience? The CNBC folks can take it. Don’t think they don’t expect to be called out on some lame blathering either. I know of one such character now that is due some write up but has been spared because Mrs. Market graciously swings the chariot for bears and bulls.

  3. Mitch says:

    BTW, I’ve seen Erin take quite a bit. I’ve also seen Michael Pento give quite a bit. Erin pointed out the current state of affairs and asked Michael to explain his theory alongside the bond positives of late.

    Well, simply stated, the Fed handicapped the course and the pros are blistering it. Let’s see how they do when the Ts are backed up and confidence is shaken. Let lightening strike and only a few players will be left (Goose!) with the essence of temperament that maintains the stroke.

  4. George says:

    Sam;

    RE: “Its a bit of a confusing pattern, the lower seems to be a falling wedge (calls for a reversal) the other longer one is indeed a megaphone .. ”

    Yes it is. Makes it hard to figure out which pattern to follow first.

  5. George says:

    Heck, those TV personalities thrive on controversy and egg-throwing; that’s how they get their ratings. They’d rather be watched by critics than to not be watched at all. (It’s the ratings, stupid.)

    Their information is not about being correct or useful, it’s about drama / entertainment. Some of their guests are worthy but such brief appearances normally won’t help Joe Sixpack.

    Matt’s blog has no hidden agenda, no subscription, and no loonies. There is analysis of various types from the host with intelligent contributors – certainly not a madhouse like other blogs.

    I don’t ever recall Matt making a constructional criticism about commentators – or anything / anyone – without backing it up with facts!

    I’ve learned more here in the past year than I ever did reading books; and I continue to learn. What’s not to like?

  6. George says:

    I reckon SPY got close enough yesterday to think it filled that gap.

  7. George says:

    Looks as if yesterday’s gaps going to be filled. At least trying.

  8. phil says:

    doubled long position @ 1097…..selling 1/2 @ 1103 downtrend line

  9. phil says:

    fut @ .618 retrace …above here TEST of TOP coming

  10. scotty says:

    sigh woke up to late looks like i missed a juicy trade,pullback baby

  11. George says:

    SPY nearing a 9/36/15 cross.

  12. George says:

    Scotty,

    No problem, get the reversal.

  13. scotty says:

    i be waiting

  14. phil says:

    phil says:
    September 7, 2010 at 9:49 am
    G

    thanks

    TNX is not the rocket…i think we test the lows in tnx..ie its a DRILL….lol

    i think the new LAUNCH is the dollar

    it has cleared the launch pad but has not reached escape velocity yet

    ps just sold 40% of the 10 yr notes also bought fri in bond smash

    i think i can buy them back cheaper later this week near 10and 30yr auctions

    george

    those bonds are getting juicier and juicier…especially since i bought TBT late yesterday to hedge and now i can buy bonds with impunity

  15. phil says:

    GEORGE

    did you see PENTO yesterday???

    he has to be short bonds and the dollar and must be getting killed on both

  16. Sam says:

    George,

    Looks like the falling wedge won out. maybe we see megaphone action now ..

    ES dipped down to 1085.25 at 3am.. looks like we don’t care about Japan anymore

    Note to me: finishing mid gap doesn’t mean gap closes next day

  17. phil says:

    NDX futures breakout

  18. phil says:

    QQQQ and SPY at downtrend line

    DOW needs 100 point rally to get there

  19. George says:

    p

    Missed Pinto. Nice on the bonds, King.

  20. George says:

    Sam,

    So I’m figuring that the smaller (pattern within a pattern) plays out first, then creates the larger pattern.

  21. George says:

    Sam,

    As to the gaps, I noticed the daily a few days back didn’t close the gap but 75% and it wasn’t two days later before it got filled.

  22. phil says:

    G

    go back on this blog to erin burn ett

    the video is there

  23. phil says:

    G

    thanks

    you could add TLT/TBT to your trading pairs

    now it looks like 2 way action with big swings

    much better than stock market

    i am making 15 to 20 times as much in bonds as stocks

  24. George says:

    Hey P, I might do that. I’m starting to change up on my pairs for something more volatile. 15 to 20 times is impressive.

  25. phil says:

    selling stocks into this push up

  26. phil says:

    G

    the reason may be my bond trades are 10 times as large…lol

  27. Sam says:

    George, thanks for the look back .. today is two days since the gap opened .. I remember K did some analysis -> gaps always get filled was his conclusion ..

    Lets see what the Beige book does to the market. NASDAQ leading which is usually the sign of things

  28. phil says:

    SAM

    the SPY gap of march 10 2009 is still open

    if you bet on that gap being filled you would be broke by now

  29. Sam says:

    PHIL,

    Am i glad I didn’t do that .. I just look for market direction .. I don’t trade gaps.

  30. Sam says:

    And then its odds of getting filled, if 5 out of 100 gaps don’t fill its still ok to bet that they get filled ..

  31. phil says:

    sam

    the gap tells you how strong the market is

    if it goes higher without filling the gap …that is POWER and DEMAND

    that is what i want to buy or sell

  32. phil says:

    might buy back some if we smash stocks hard here

  33. Mitch says:

    Sam,

    I like the .38 retrace from today’s high but I might be suffering from some fear of missing a good ole rip higher. Hmmm, don’t shop hungry and don’t bet direction on trend days of same. So, I’m a spectator.

  34. phil says:

    should get a resolution of this triangle soon

    http://dshort.com/charts/Kimble/NYA-100908.gif

  35. phil says:

    gold

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-
    content/uploads/2010/09/goldnewlegjune2.gi

  36. George says:

    p

    Nice charts.

  37. George says:

    Another gap-n-crap day. Something needs to get going. This machine needs some WD 40. :)

  38. phil says:

    looking for a terrible bond auction

    post auction bond smash

    i will be ready to buy at lower levels ..

  39. phil says:

    G

    thanks

    you know i have to buy bonds to hedge my huge TBT position.. lol

  40. Sam says:

    Yes Phil, I think we are in agreement here

  41. Scotty says:

    Take off the 1100 hats we test. 1107-1110 than down 1070-50

  42. phil says:

    plan didnt work

    had to dump TBT

    now long TLT

  43. phil says:

    still might want to buy back some stock if stock smash holds above 1090

  44. George says:

    As soon as that SPY gap above was filled, it reversed.

  45. Stringm says:

    My new trading strategy video:

    http://www.twitvid.com/Q41DB

  46. phil says:

    string

    out of tlt now

    trade bonds string…its like a watermelon in your face…..lol

  47. George says:

    SPY is bouncing off its 15min 36MA support. It has respected support and resistance today so far. However, the 15min MACD is negative.

  48. George says:

    Beige Book: US Economic growth shows widespread signs of slowing. (Source: CNBC-RT)

    That may account for the bump down.

  49. George says:

    Stringm,

    Strange way to slice a ‘mellon. :)

  50. George says:

    One day, shorts won’t cover and that’ll be the name of that tune.

  51. scotty says:

    How mouths does Bama speak out of

  52. Stringm says:

    The one thing his mouth can’t say is why his admin will not lable China as a currency manipulator. Do that and we might start to get some lasting jobs back here.

  53. scotty says:

    Stop those container ships and semis full of exports,educate all you want but current trade laws will increase unemployment,talk about this

  54. George says:

    US Consumer credit falls by $3.63 billin in July, sixth straight monthly drop. (Source: CNBC-RT)

  55. Mitch says:

    xlf – gap below and gap above. I’m in there somewhere :)

  56. George says:

    Mitch,

    You have SLF surrounded. :D

    I like it.

  57. George says:

    I meant XLF.

  58. George says:

    SPY still in its daily uptrend. Stochastic is above 80 so anything can happen. MACD is still positive.

  59. Scotty says:

    Jobless claims 480k+ should be back down around 1075-80 by Friday,I jumped the gun a bit today

  60. George says:

    VIX has maintained its move above the lower BB. The blue arrows to the left show what could happen with this setup.

    http://i52.tinypic.com/23u6eld.jpg

  61. 2thfixr says:

    That’s the kind of VIX move I’m lookin’ for George! Bring it on.