One of my jackass stalkers sent me a nasty-gram that read:
“You need a new dog. All you do is dog everyone else. How about some news we can use?”
But on the night before the market topped, I published a “TRIN Alert” and wrote:
“The odds definitely favor the bears at this juncture.”
Note to jackass: Exactly which part of “favor the bears” don’t you understand?
My “Fractal Dimension Index End-of-Trend Signal” from Saturday also worked well. If you had a futures account, you could have put a short position on Sunday and caught all of Tuesday’s drop. Even if you shorted SPY at the open on Tuesday, your trade was in the green all day, except for a brief dip into the red at 9:45am.
Note to jackass: If you couldn’t make any money on Tuesday, then your wife should take away your trading account.
Forgot to mention that I picked up DZZ (double short gold) at $10.34 on Tuesday…I’m looking for above $12 as an exit on half, holding the other half until shown a reason not to hold it.
Matt,
I usually find your critique of CNBC moderators to be fair and most always the posts here deals with the opinions of the moderators, show hosts (Kudlow – not a moderator
) and their guests. That’s how it’s supposed to be if you ask me. Usually aggressive but not dogmatic (Pento/Schiff) and always content driven (ok maybe there was a note about lil house on the prairie). Everyone that trades or muses comes to a conclusion or has strong opinions – why not share them for a full discourse in a semi-public forum?
Who else is going to do it intelligently and with some fairness drawn from experience? The CNBC folks can take it. Don’t think they don’t expect to be called out on some lame blathering either. I know of one such character now that is due some write up but has been spared because Mrs. Market graciously swings the chariot for bears and bulls.
BTW, I’ve seen Erin take quite a bit. I’ve also seen Michael Pento give quite a bit. Erin pointed out the current state of affairs and asked Michael to explain his theory alongside the bond positives of late.
Well, simply stated, the Fed handicapped the course and the pros are blistering it. Let’s see how they do when the Ts are backed up and confidence is shaken. Let lightening strike and only a few players will be left (Goose!) with the essence of temperament that maintains the stroke.
Sam;
RE: “Its a bit of a confusing pattern, the lower seems to be a falling wedge (calls for a reversal) the other longer one is indeed a megaphone .. ”
Yes it is. Makes it hard to figure out which pattern to follow first.
Heck, those TV personalities thrive on controversy and egg-throwing; that’s how they get their ratings. They’d rather be watched by critics than to not be watched at all. (It’s the ratings, stupid.)
Their information is not about being correct or useful, it’s about drama / entertainment. Some of their guests are worthy but such brief appearances normally won’t help Joe Sixpack.
Matt’s blog has no hidden agenda, no subscription, and no loonies. There is analysis of various types from the host with intelligent contributors – certainly not a madhouse like other blogs.
I don’t ever recall Matt making a constructional criticism about commentators – or anything / anyone – without backing it up with facts!
I’ve learned more here in the past year than I ever did reading books; and I continue to learn. What’s not to like?
LMAO
HOUSING BUBBLE was tiny
here is the real bubble
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/TIOwjG85VrI/AAAAAAAAOUs/fssuoliIaY8/s1600/tuition.jpg
I reckon SPY got close enough yesterday to think it filled that gap.
Looks as if yesterday’s gaps going to be filled. At least trying.
doubled long position @ 1097…..selling 1/2 @ 1103 downtrend line
fut @ .618 retrace …above here TEST of TOP coming
sigh woke up to late looks like i missed a juicy trade,pullback baby
SPY nearing a 9/36/15 cross.
Scotty,
No problem, get the reversal.
i be waiting
phil says:
September 7, 2010 at 9:49 am
G
thanks
TNX is not the rocket…i think we test the lows in tnx..ie its a DRILL….lol
i think the new LAUNCH is the dollar
it has cleared the launch pad but has not reached escape velocity yet
ps just sold 40% of the 10 yr notes also bought fri in bond smash
i think i can buy them back cheaper later this week near 10and 30yr auctions
george
those bonds are getting juicier and juicier…especially since i bought TBT late yesterday to hedge and now i can buy bonds with impunity
GEORGE
did you see PENTO yesterday???
he has to be short bonds and the dollar and must be getting killed on both
George,
Looks like the falling wedge won out. maybe we see megaphone action now ..
ES dipped down to 1085.25 at 3am.. looks like we don’t care about Japan anymore
Note to me: finishing mid gap doesn’t mean gap closes next day
NDX futures breakout
QQQQ and SPY at downtrend line
DOW needs 100 point rally to get there
p
Missed Pinto. Nice on the bonds, King.
Sam,
So I’m figuring that the smaller (pattern within a pattern) plays out first, then creates the larger pattern.
Sam,
As to the gaps, I noticed the daily a few days back didn’t close the gap but 75% and it wasn’t two days later before it got filled.
G
go back on this blog to erin burn ett
the video is there
G
thanks
you could add TLT/TBT to your trading pairs
now it looks like 2 way action with big swings
much better than stock market
i am making 15 to 20 times as much in bonds as stocks
Hey P, I might do that. I’m starting to change up on my pairs for something more volatile. 15 to 20 times is impressive.
selling stocks into this push up
G
the reason may be my bond trades are 10 times as large…lol
George, thanks for the look back .. today is two days since the gap opened .. I remember K did some analysis -> gaps always get filled was his conclusion ..
Lets see what the Beige book does to the market. NASDAQ leading which is usually the sign of things
SAM
the SPY gap of march 10 2009 is still open
if you bet on that gap being filled you would be broke by now
PHIL,
Am i glad I didn’t do that .. I just look for market direction .. I don’t trade gaps.
And then its odds of getting filled, if 5 out of 100 gaps don’t fill its still ok to bet that they get filled ..
sam
the gap tells you how strong the market is
if it goes higher without filling the gap …that is POWER and DEMAND
that is what i want to buy or sell
might buy back some if we smash stocks hard here
Sam,
I like the .38 retrace from today’s high but I might be suffering from some fear of missing a good ole rip higher. Hmmm, don’t shop hungry and don’t bet direction on trend days of same. So, I’m a spectator.
should get a resolution of this triangle soon
http://dshort.com/charts/Kimble/NYA-100908.gif
gold
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-
content/uploads/2010/09/goldnewlegjune2.gi
gold
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/goldnewlegjune2.gif
bonds
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/tltpeakelevationaug29.gif
p
Nice charts.
Another gap-n-crap day. Something needs to get going. This machine needs some WD 40.
looking for a terrible bond auction
post auction bond smash
i will be ready to buy at lower levels ..
G
thanks
you know i have to buy bonds to hedge my huge TBT position.. lol
Yes Phil, I think we are in agreement here
Take off the 1100 hats we test. 1107-1110 than down 1070-50
plan didnt work
had to dump TBT
now long TLT
still might want to buy back some stock if stock smash holds above 1090
As soon as that SPY gap above was filled, it reversed.
My new trading strategy video:
http://www.twitvid.com/Q41DB
string
out of tlt now
trade bonds string…its like a watermelon in your face…..lol
SPY is bouncing off its 15min 36MA support. It has respected support and resistance today so far. However, the 15min MACD is negative.
Beige Book: US Economic growth shows widespread signs of slowing. (Source: CNBC-RT)
That may account for the bump down.
Stringm,
Strange way to slice a ‘mellon.
One day, shorts won’t cover and that’ll be the name of that tune.
How mouths does Bama speak out of
The one thing his mouth can’t say is why his admin will not lable China as a currency manipulator. Do that and we might start to get some lasting jobs back here.
Stop those container ships and semis full of exports,educate all you want but current trade laws will increase unemployment,talk about this
US Consumer credit falls by $3.63 billin in July, sixth straight monthly drop. (Source: CNBC-RT)
xlf – gap below and gap above. I’m in there somewhere
Mitch,
You have SLF surrounded.
I like it.
I meant XLF.
SPY still in its daily uptrend. Stochastic is above 80 so anything can happen. MACD is still positive.
Jobless claims 480k+ should be back down around 1075-80 by Friday,I jumped the gun a bit today
VIX has maintained its move above the lower BB. The blue arrows to the left show what could happen with this setup.
http://i52.tinypic.com/23u6eld.jpg
That’s the kind of VIX move I’m lookin’ for George! Bring it on.