Comments on: Who Wants to Go Long in Front of the Jobs Report? http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report Bear Market Growls Until January 2010 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 21:32:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1602 admin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:28:16 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1602 Small Cap Slingshot, I do the Vulcan Mind Meld with the Market Beast every day. I always know what it is thinking. Trade against me and you will be crushed. Matt Small Cap Slingshot,

I do the Vulcan Mind Meld with the Market Beast every day. I always know what it is thinking. Trade against me and you will be crushed.

Matt

]]> By: Small Cap Slingshot http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1595 Small Cap Slingshot Fri, 04 Jul 2008 15:50:27 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1595 Matt, Should have been more clear. I converted all my gains from my QQQQ option puts into cash. I still had a sizeable chunk of my portfolio in individual stocks using option puts. "Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday?" - I'm fine. My market timing isn't always perfect, but I can live with that. Sometimes I nail it perfectly and other times I am off by several days. I thought there was going to be some more follow through on Wednesday and it didn't happen. That's ok. "...trading against me is definitely not a good idea." - Wow. You are getting awfully big for your britches. You get a couple calls right and you think you are a superstar. Keep it up and Mr. Market has a nice spoonful of humility with your name on it. Matt,

Should have been more clear. I converted all my gains from my QQQQ option puts into cash. I still had a sizeable chunk of my portfolio in individual stocks using option puts.

“Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday?” - I’m fine. My market timing isn’t always perfect, but I can live with that. Sometimes I nail it perfectly and other times I am off by several days. I thought there was going to be some more follow through on Wednesday and it didn’t happen. That’s ok.

“…trading against me is definitely not a good idea.” - Wow. You are getting awfully big for your britches. You get a couple calls right and you think you are a superstar. Keep it up and Mr. Market has a nice spoonful of humility with your name on it.

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1580 admin Thu, 03 Jul 2008 17:11:32 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1580 Small Cap Slingshot, In your previous comment, you said: "I did convert almost all my gains from option puts into cash." So, how did you make that 12%? Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday? We didn't get the "normal" bounce because this is not a normal market. "Normally", I would never go against these extreme conditions, but you have to know when to go against the models, and this has been one of those times. You can continue to disagree with me if you like. That is harmless, but trading against me is definitely not a good idea. Matt Small Cap Slingshot,

In your previous comment, you said: “I did convert almost all my gains from option puts into cash.” So, how did you make that 12%?

Your crystal ball has a perfect 0-2 record so far. Care to try again for Monday?

We didn’t get the “normal” bounce because this is not a normal market. “Normally”, I would never go against these extreme conditions, but you have to know when to go against the models, and this has been one of those times.

You can continue to disagree with me if you like. That is harmless, but trading against me is definitely not a good idea.

Matt

]]> By: Small Cap Slingshot http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1557 Small Cap Slingshot Thu, 03 Jul 2008 02:11:50 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1557 Matt, Nah. Still have my calls working. My individual stocks, where I have a nice bit of option puts, more than made up for my long QQQQ calls. Overall, my total portfolio bounced up ~12% today (without the QQQQ calls it would have been 14%). The more we fall without a normal oversold bounce, the stronger that bounce is going to be. If you are still super short, I would be cautious. Cheers Matt,

Nah. Still have my calls working. My individual stocks, where I have a nice bit of option puts, more than made up for my long QQQQ calls. Overall, my total portfolio bounced up ~12% today (without the QQQQ calls it would have been 14%).

The more we fall without a normal oversold bounce, the stronger that bounce is going to be. If you are still super short, I would be cautious.

Cheers

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1551 admin Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:15:55 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1551 Hi Morganski, I hope you got your planned shorts on this morning before the market rolled over. I was just looking at SRS a couple of days ago. I like it. Matt Hi Morganski,

I hope you got your planned shorts on this morning before the market rolled over.

I was just looking at SRS a couple of days ago. I like it.

Matt

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1550 admin Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:13:14 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1550 Hi Small Cap Slingshot, Well, I hoped you bailed out early today anyway. Matt Hi Small Cap Slingshot,

Well, I hoped you bailed out early today anyway.

Matt

]]> By: Morganski http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1535 Morganski Wed, 02 Jul 2008 02:51:00 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1535 On tempting fate, I agree wholeheartedly. The only time I've lost money over the past few weeks is when I would make a trade in the opposite direction of my fundamental belief on the medium-term trend, to scalp a few extra bucks. Never again. I'll wait out the rally, buy some more puts and more of the double-inverse indexes at better prices. The double-inverse that I really like at this point is SRS, which shorts the REITs. The homebuilders and financials have crumbled but the commercial side has been relatively unscathed at this point. Not for long. Right now trading at 104, I think that around 100 is an excellent entry point. On tempting fate, I agree wholeheartedly. The only time I’ve lost money over the past few weeks is when I would make a trade in the opposite direction of my fundamental belief on the medium-term trend, to scalp a few extra bucks. Never again. I’ll wait out the rally, buy some more puts and more of the double-inverse indexes at better prices.

The double-inverse that I really like at this point is SRS, which shorts the REITs. The homebuilders and financials have crumbled but the commercial side has been relatively unscathed at this point. Not for long. Right now trading at 104, I think that around 100 is an excellent entry point.

]]> By: Small Cap Slingshot http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1532 Small Cap Slingshot Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:31:52 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1532 Matt, I'm not trying to get cute here. I am just following my QQQQ trading system (aka crystal ball). Yesterday, I had an extreme oversold signal and today was a confirmation day. I am not going crazy long (only about 5% of my total portfolio), but I did convert almost all my gains from option puts into cash. Cheers, Chris Matt,

I’m not trying to get cute here. I am just following my QQQQ trading system (aka crystal ball). Yesterday, I had an extreme oversold signal and today was a confirmation day. I am not going crazy long (only about 5% of my total portfolio), but I did convert almost all my gains from option puts into cash.

Cheers, Chris

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1530 admin Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:08:23 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1530 Hi Small Cap Slingshot, I tried the same thing a couple of days ago. I took a small loss on my QQQQ calls. It snapped my perfect winning streak that was literally two-months old. Two straight months of winning short trades, and I had to temp fate and play on the long side of a collapsing market. I'm not doing that this time. Matt Hi Small Cap Slingshot,

I tried the same thing a couple of days ago. I took a small loss on my QQQQ calls. It snapped my perfect winning streak that was literally two-months old. Two straight months of winning short trades, and I had to temp fate and play on the long side of a collapsing market. I’m not doing that this time.

Matt

]]> By: Small Cap Slingshot http://www.trivisonno.com/who-wants-to-go-long-in-front-of-the-jobs-report#comment-1529 Small Cap Slingshot Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:44:42 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=198#comment-1529 My crystal ball says rally tomorrow. It could be small or it could be decent (~2%). My QQQQ calls are in place... However, unless there is a rally >5%, I will close my calls and begin to get short again. I do have several individual names where I kept my longer term puts working. My crystal ball says rally tomorrow. It could be small or it could be decent (~2%). My QQQQ calls are in place… However, unless there is a rally >5%, I will close my calls and begin to get short again.

I do have several individual names where I kept my longer term puts working.

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