Comments on: Ziggy Takes Baby Steps

By: Larry

Larry — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:45:45 +0000

Yerk. Thanks for the zerohedge. Read tonight.

By: K

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:45:36 +0000

and now we bounced off of P

By: K

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 11:30:40 +0000

futures got within 1.25 points of the R1 and retraced. let’s see if this is it

By: Larry

Larry — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 11:07:56 +0000

Yerk, I have read those predictions for a while.

Do not underestimate the Chinese willingness to continue gambling when they have found a lucky table.

By: Yerk

Yerk — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:13:39 +0000

junglegirl, sure… how good is your German? I’ve reread the last forecast three times, slept over it and have still not figured out where he is expecting the top to be. Text not in line with charts, his forecast for the dax today is the opposite of the dow from the chart… Here’s the most recent dump from the oracle: http://tinyurl.com/nvzeon – (he explains the different service offerings somewhere in there. A couple of other fellows post on the site but I do not follow them)
Whilst being very canny at long-term targets, his short-term forecast quite often don’t work out and the short-term adjustments to his long-term targets are tricky. (Like he says now the bull is alive above 8474. Most likely we get a market reversal within 0.1 to 3 points of that number, then the dow falls further and he pops up and says bull alive above 82xx. After the June high we had this cycle I think three times…) This guy insists on using EW with the right feel, eg his counts tend to be loosely coupled with rules in Prechter’s book and to get adjusted on the way to hit the targets – and not the other way around. What I therefore do is to keep track of this major targets, try to reconcile them with other sources and ignore the way in between. Please come back if you have further questions.

By: Yerk

Yerk — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:39:32 +0000

Larry, did you see this ETH Zurich forecast the bubble will pop within the next 2 weeks? So the bulls believe Chinese gamblers will save the global economy. To me it looks like a prime example of Keynesian spending ending in the wrong places – eg liquidity inflow, stock market goes up, bad credit rises and pop. (Can’t happen anywhere else, for sure not…) Reminds me of the old saying the USSR forces the capitalists to behave and is very important to stabilize “our” system.

By: Larry

Larry — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 07:55:35 +0000

Thanks Jungle.

Copper and Alu are surging. People are piling in.

By: junglegirl

junglegirl — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 06:29:17 +0000

Larry,

Shanghai just filled their breakaway gap from 2008, and the relative strength looks strong and increasing. As you know, the index can get turned back after gap-fill, but it does look like more upside action could be coming. Seems like the whole world could go either way right now… still lots of evidence on both sides (and clearly the real economy is irrelevant right now).

Yerk @ 11:54,

May I inquire as to who the accurate individual is you like to follow, and how does one subscribe? TIA.

By: Larry

Larry — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 05:56:16 +0000

George, re Legg Mason. That was my point. Agree.

2. The Chinese are piling into the Shanghai Composite. Having seen their behavior at the Baccarat tables in Macau (it’s probably the same people) I am promising you guys one thing. They will not stop gambling as long as they have found a lucky guy on a lucky table on a lucky streak. They will continue and attract more pundits and pile on even more.

And as soon as the music stops, they will all leave the table right away.

I think we need the EW gang on this board to take a look at Shanghai Composite. This rally across the world is driven by news from China. We should pay attention to it, as well as the Chinese loan growth of 500% YoY.

Start with mid-2005 and draw the picture. (Yes I know about HK Mainland Shares).

Shanghai Composite

October 2005 approx. 1,100
October 2007 approx. 5,900
October 2008 approx. 1,800
July 2009 approx. 3,400

In my view it looks like we are in the third wave on the way up? (I have no idea on EW).

Thanks in advance, Larry.

By: Yerk

Yerk — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 05:01:55 +0000

TD and Rosenberg join forces – 70 slides about the state of the economy.
The End Of The End Of The Recession
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession_0.pdf
Of course it does not help with the question how high can the market go, but it explains the gravitational pull