Archive for the ‘Geopolitics’ Category

One Lousy Ship?

Friday, October 30th, 2015

On Tuesday, President Obama sent the USS Lassen to the South China Sea where it sailed within 12 nautical miles of one of China’s artificial islands. Publicly, the Chinese are outraged, but behind the scenes they are probably snickering considering what happened the last time the U.S. Navy sent China a message.

Back in 1996, when the Chinese were harassing Taiwan, President Clinton sent two carrier groups to the area. And one of them led by the USS Nimitz sailed right through the Taiwan Strait. Now that sends a message. Why? Because the ships sailed very close to China, and the closer you get, the more enemy territory comes under your guns. The Nimitz could have inflicted some serious mayhem on a wide swath of China that day (click the map to enlarge):


The Chinese had their Silkworm cruise missiles back then, but perhaps the Navy was confident in their countermeasures. Of course, during the intervening 20 years we have transferred a tremendous amount of technology to the Chinese, so their anti-ship weapons are far more sophisticated now. Sending a carrier that close to China today might not be feasible. And I would be surprised to see it considering how the USS Theodore Roosevelt pulled out of the Middle East two days after the Russians started launching cruise missiles at ISIS on October 7th.

Perhaps there will be more “Freedom of Navigation” operations, but if it ends after this puny show of force, the Chinese will likely be emboldened rather than deterred – just like the Russians are now in the Middle East.

I’m for scaling back our imperial footprint, but it has to be done in such a way that our military rivals don’t sense weakness.

Putin’s Cuban Carrier Not Sunk After All

Friday, October 16th, 2015

In “Sinking Putin’s Cuban Carrier” back in February, I speculated that Obama’s policy of trying to normalize relations with Cuba was a geopolitical strategy aimed at depriving Russia of an ally in a cold war that was heating up.

Well, it looks like it didn’t take. DEBKAfile is reporting that Putin has air-lifted 2,000 Cuban troops into Syria who will soon be driving tanks over the CIA’s jihadis.

Is Putin mopping the floor with Obama, or what? You have to wonder if this will effect the presidential election. If the Democrats are perceived as grossly incompetent at foreign policy, that might be the issue that will allow Trump to catch up to Hillary. All the head-to-head polls I’ve seen show Hills defeating Trump by a wide margin. But can that last, when the USA is in a military retreat?

Recently, there has been talk of a US Navy “drive by” in the South China Sea to show China who’s boss. That may partly be designed to divert attention away from the Middle East as we quietly fold our tent in Syria. If the Navy were to sink one of China’s artificial islands, then that would provide a long-lasting media circus that would dwarf events in the Middle East…

…Unless Putin keeps marching. Putin’s on a roll, and Obama’s a sissy, so why wouldn’t Putin keep right on going? In 1974, Russia deployed Cuban tank and helicopter crews to the Syrian border with Israel where they fought the IDF. Does Vladamir Putin see this as an opportunity to take out a US ally? Probably not, but I think this is the most danger Israel has been in in a long time.

Big Oil’s Revenge on Baghdad

Sunday, June 29th, 2014

The fate of the Shiite regime that we installed in Baghdad was probably sealed back in 2009 during a televised oil auction at the Al-Rashid Hotel. The Iraqis took bids to see which oil companies would get contracts to pump Iraqi oil.

ExxonMobil shocked the audience with an astoundingly low bid. The giant company was willing to accept a mere $4.80 per barrel. But the audience was stunned again when the Ministry of Oil announced that the maximum they would pay was $2.

Can you imagine the audacity? Here we had just kindly destroyed their country, and now they were sticking it to us on oil profits. The bastards!

Which is, I’m sure, how the discussions went in the boardrooms of Big Oil. A couple of years later, ExxonMobil struck back. As I wrote in my book:

“In early 2012, ExxonMobil confirmed that they had signed an exploration and production deal with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government. The Kurds are in defiance of Baghdad, and the deal has infuriated the Iraqi government. ExxonMobil has sided with the Kurds because they are easier to do business with, and if Baghdad doesn’t change its tune they just might get invaded again!”

And whoops! Baghdad is now under siege by Sunnis. Note to Maliki: payback’s a bitch.

(Am I a prophet or what? Obviously, you should buy my book immediately.)

Further evidence that we have turned our back on the Shiites is that we are doing virtually nothing to help them fight ISIS while Vladimir Putin has sent five Sukhoi fighter jets to Baghdad.

And you don’t have to take my word for it. Back in January, the Telegraph reported that the USA had given its seal of approval to ISIS.

Obama is telling Maliki: “We can do this the easy way or the hard way. You can step down and make way for a more pliable puppet, or Baghdad can burn.”

So far, Maliki is choosing the hard way.

Putin Will March on East Ukraine

Saturday, March 29th, 2014

Vladamir Putin called President Obama last night, and the White House spun it as Putin grovelling for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine. However, the White House statement left out the fact that Putin complained about the “extremists” that we probably employ there, and the region of Transnistria that Putin appears to covet.

What I think Putin will do is make a statement about how he begged Obama to call of his mercenaries in Ukraine, but Obama refused, so now it us up to Russia to restore order in the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine.

Do we really have 300 Backwater mercenaries in Ukraine? Or is it just Kremlin propaganda? I don’t know, but it doesn’t actually matter because Putin seems to be intending to use it as his reason for an invasion.

So, don’t be surprised if the tanks roll soon. Also, did you know that the Russian Army fought in the War of Transnistria in 1992?

Russian Military Superiority

Sunday, March 2nd, 2014

In many areas, the Russians have military superiority over the USA. For example, if a Russian sub wanted to sail up to our coast and launch a nuclear cruise missile, we would never see it coming. Your first hint would be when the temperature in your living room spiked up to one million degrees. Even if you had a Patriot battery deployed on your lawn, you would be as helpless as a kitten with polio.

As I wrote in my book, the Pentagon cannot detect Russia’s Akula attack sub, and it can’t shoot down the Iskander missile. If the truth were known, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Iskander was the reason why we declined battle in Georgia in 2008, in Syria in 2013, and surely will decline again in Ukraine in 2014.

You see, while we were pursuing disastrous imperial wars, the Russians were pursuing actual effective weapons. While the USA dramatically outspends the rest of the world on “defense,” there is little doubt that we also dramatically out-waste the rest of the world too. We make airplanes and tanks that roll off the assembly line, and then roll right into the boneyard.

We suffer from a plague of military entitlements, where defense contractors feel entitled to build weapons that the Pentagon doesn’t want. They get away with it by simply purchasing the required Congressmen. Calling Russia corrupt and backward is a case of the pot calling the kettle black.

We also suffer from hubris thanks to the corporate media bombarding us with an endless barrage of military hype as the New World Order rolls on with its program of never-ending war. But defeating small, hapless nations doesn’t prove anything when it comes time to fight a large, competent nation. This isn’t a terribly impressive resume:

Grenada (Ronald Reagan, 1983)
Panama (George H.W. Bush, 1988)
Serbia (Bill Clinton, 1995)
Afghanistan (George W. Bush, 2001)
Iraq (George W. Bush, 2003)
Libya (Barrack Obama, 2011)

We Americans have a feeling of military and technological superiority. Maybe we are right; maybe we could drive the Russians out of Ukraine. But such an adventure would surely be far more bloody and costly than our last six “glorious victories” combined.

Don’t forget, even the Serbs figured out how to shoot down an F-117 Nighthawk stealth bomber. In fact, the wreckage is on display in Belgrade:

Stealth Bomber Wreckage

Stealth Bomber Wreckage

If a tiny nation like Serbia could neutralize our most-advanced technology, just imagine what the Russians could do.

Now, if the Russians were invading Canada, then we would certainly want to push them out regardless of the danger. But they are not doing that. Rather, we are trying to abscond with Russia’s Canada – Ukraine. Fomenting rebellion in Ukraine was a profoundly aggressive move toward Russia. I expect they will fight for Ukraine just as fiercely was we would fight them over Canada.

We had a chance to make friends with Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed. But instead, the psychotic, rapacious, and incompetent oligarchy that runs this country acted like a pack of hyenas trying to bite off chunks of former-Soviet turf.

And that behavior will continue until David Rockefeller’s ExxonMobil gets it’s hands on Russia’s oil reserves. The only question is: can they pull it off without triggering a nuclear war? Don’t forget, psychopaths are “fearless” – or more precisely, their brain damage makes them reckless in the face of danger. So, nuclear war is a lot more likely than we might think.

And this is not Obama’s doing. The NATO-Ukraine alliance began in 1995, and Ukrainian soldiers have served with us in Afghanistan and Iraq. Our Ukrainian policy is made above the presidential level.