On Sunday, I predicted that the March 6th low of 12,735 was in play. Here’s the chart that I posted:

The market didn’t waste any time fulfilling my vision, whooshing down on Monday and Tuesday. Here’s what the chart looks like now:

Not bad, huh?

What’s next? Well, if I told you the future every day, that would ruin the surprise for you. Right? But here are some things to think about:

The fact that the Dow plunged below its March 6th low is bearish factor. Some of the dip buyers who resided there a month go have gone AWOL. But the market reacted very well to Alcoa’s earnings report after the bell. As I write this, the Dow futures are up 50 points from their 4 o’clock close.

On the short-term time-frame, the market is oversold, and it appears that we have a bullish catalyst in the form of Alcoa. So, perhaps the market will advance on Wednesday. However, volume exploded on Tuesday, so bulls need to root, if not pray, for high-volume buying going forward. If a stampede of dip-buyers don’t rush in, then the buying might be the work of shorts covering up and taking profits. And that increases the odds that the bounce will be a mere retracement.

During the stock-market histrionics over the last three months, I never joined the recession camp. In fact, I poured a bit of derision upon the doomsayers in “Companies Add Jobs for 18th Straight Month – Investors Jump Out Windows“. That was on September 2, 2011, where I wrote things like:

“Is it possible for a recession to begin with rates at 0%? I suppose so, but it’s not something that has happened in the last 60 years.”

And today, third-quarter GDP came in at 2.5% – which is not only not a contraction, but is almost double the 1.3% growth of the second quarter.

The moral of the story is that I, like, totally nailed it.

Note to perma-bears: Hang your heads in shame! Especially you “Tyler Durden”!